Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
Geico 500

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Geico 500

Talladega Superspeedway - Talladega, Alabama
Track - 2.66 Mile Tr-Oval Superspeedway
33° Banking in the Corners

It was another Joe Gibbs Racing victory on Sunday at Richmond pushing the team streak to four straight race wins and five out of the first nine races. We even witnessed a teammate battle between Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch in the closing laps which eventually led to Carl bumping Kyle on the final turn to take the checkered flag. Check it out below:

This is what the fans pay to see. There is no alliances on the final lap of a race.

Overall, it was another incredible race from start to finish as the new downforce package combined with the amazing tire setup that Goodyear brought to Richmond lead to four wide racing all day long.

This week NASCAR heads to Talladega, Alabama for the Geico 500 this Sunday afternoon. That's right, it's time for some Superspeedway racing boys and girls. Where the "Big One" is bound to happen with pack racing and speeds of 200+ MPH. Picking a winner seems like a bit of a crap shoot as only one driver(Brad Keselowski) has multiple wins here in the last five years(10 races). This doesn't mean we just get click happy and select any six drivers with pretty cars. I mean that can work. Just ask a few of my friends who kicked my butt back at Daytona who never played a DFS NASCAR lineup in their life. I am holding no anger towards them. Honestly.

Ok, back on track. Literally. The data which we collect may not prove to be as important this week but it can still steer you in the right direction(all the puns in this article). Looking at the big picture at Talladega there are 14 drivers in the field this week with wins here in their career but just five with multiple wins(Dale Jr, Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, Jamie McMurray, Clint Bowyer). Dale Earnhardt Jr. has dominated with six career wins and 960 laps lead here at Talladega Superspeedway. The two practice sessions for this week will both take place on Friday afternoon with Qualifying coming on Saturday before the race on Sunday.

In daily fantasy this week you are going to want to target drivers on teams who work well together. Taking one to four drivers on the same team can be a very profitable strategy as they will be working together in the pack all day barring a crash and early exit. The Gibbs cars worked well at Daytona and finished with three cars inside the Top 5. Other teams to target will be the Hendrick team, Team Penske, Stewart-Haas Racing, and a sleeper outside those power teams is the Roush Fenway Racing team. Another thing to watch for is qualifying order. You can find a ton of value in drivers starting near the back who are fast and will be able to pick up place differential bonus points. Let's dig in to the picks.

 

I will again be selling a cheatsheet every week of the NASCAR season. It will include drivers, salaries for DraftKings and FantasyFeud, post qualifying Vegas Odds, current form(last 5 races), track history(last 5 races), and I update the cheatsheet throughout the weekend following practice and qualifying. With the purchase of the cheatsheet you also get a few sample lineups. These lineups will almost always change following qualifying and practice so be sure to check lineup page before lineups lock on Sunday.

I have added weighted rankings for Track History, Current Form, Season Loop Data and Practice/Qualifying. This will help better identify the best values each week and can be full customized by the user. Just download the View Only version from the lineups page and create copy which will then allow you to change any weights or sort any column you wish. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet throw me an email(jagerbombs99@gmail.com) or hit me up on Twitter(@jager_bombs9).

Let's dig in and look at some targets for this week. Be sure to check back following Final Practice on Saturday as I will have a recap of the weekend leading up to the race and go through some values that pop up from qualifying/practice.

 

Upper Tier Targets ($9,000+)

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr. 
DraftKings - $10,300
Fantasy Feud - $255,000
Practice #1 - 32nd
Final Practice - N/A
Qualified - 3rd

He is the best superspedway racer in the field with 10 of his 26 career wins coming at Talladega(6) and Daytona(4). He is the most expensive driver this week and the favorite to win. He had a disappointing start to the season at Daytona where he got involved in an accident but since then has been red hot. He has put together four Top 5's, five Top 10's and hasn't had a finish worse than 14th(Martinsville) since Daytona. He works extremely well with his teammates and should be a factor on the final lap. He is safe in all formats this week, especially in cash games where ownership % isn't as big of a factor. As I mentioned above in the preview if you are rostering Earnhardt Jr. this week make sure to "stack" him with Jimmie Johnson, Chase Elliot, or Kasey Kahne. If you are building multiple GPP lineups this week I can definitely see the value in fading his high ownership in one or two lineups as a contrarian approach.

 

 

Matt Kenseth
DraftKings - $9,100
Fantasy Feud - $200,000
Practice #1 - 21st
Final Practice - 18th
Qualified - 4th

Looking at a team as a whole I love the Joe Gibbs Racing team this week and will have exposure to all four of them throughout my lineups. In the 2016 season they have tallied five wins at all three types of tracks. Denny Hamlin won at Daytona(Superspeedway), Kyle Busch won back to back at Martinsville(Short Track) and Texas(Intermediate) followed by Carl Edwards winning back to back at Bristol(Short Track) and Richmond(short track). The only driver missing in this picture is Matt Kenseth. It has been a frustrating start to the year for the #20 team with just two Top 10 finishes after showing the same speed as the other JGR cars week in and week out. Kenseth makes a great GPP play this week and could be one of the lower owned drivers in the upper tier.

 

Brad Keselowski 
DraftKings - $9,000
Fantasy Feud - $195,000
Practice #1 - 31st
Final Practice - 11th
Qualified - 7th

He is the only driver to pick up multiple wins here at Talladega in the last five years(10 races). He has also added four Top 5's, five Top 10's and a 15.4 average finish which is ranked 6th in the field. He has only lead a total of 27 laps in those 10 races but always seems to find his way to the front at the end. After picking up the win at Las Vegas earlier this year the #2 teams has struggled a bit with just two Top 10's in their last six races. No better place for Keselowski to get back on track than here at Talladega. Look for him to work closely with his teammate Joey Logano(defending champ) as both make terrific GPP plays this week.

 

Also Consider - Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards

Middle Tier Targets ($6,500-$9,000)

 

Martin Truex Jr.
DraftKings - $8,900
Fantasy Feud - $185,000
Practice #1 - 22nd
Final Practice - N/A
Qualified - 2th

Looking at the next tier of drivers I instantly gravitate towards the #78 car this week. He is the only driver in the mid $7K to $9K range with an average finish better than 20th. He is coming off a 7th and 5th place finish here last year and has five Top 10 finishes in his last 10 races at Talladega. His form is nowhere near where it was last season when he started the season with 14 Top 10's in his first 15 races. He is due for a break out very soon and has Top 10's in two of his last three races. I am expecting another Top 10 finish this weekend as he makes a great pick in any format at a price tag below $9K on DraftKings.

 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 
DraftKings - $6,900
Fantasy Feud - $105,000
Practice #1 - 25th
Final Practice - N/A
Qualified - 6th

Under $7K on DraftKings Stenhouse Jr. makes a great value this week no matter the format you are playing. He is early in his career but in the five races here at Talladega he has one Top 5, three Top 10's and a 12.2 average finish. He has also been a poor qualifier here which could provide added place differential upside this week. He is having a positive start to the 2016 season with a Top 10 at Atlanta, Top 5 at Fontana, and back to back 16th place finishes at Texas and Bristol. Look for him to team up with Greg Biffle or Trevor Bayne and if the Roush cars show speed in practices, they could definitely be factors at the end of the race. Great GPP stack this week that could go low owned.

 

Also Consider - Paul Menard, Kasey Kahne

 

 

Low End Targets ($6,500 and Below)

 

Landon Cassill
DraftKings - $5,800
Fantasy Feud - $75,000
Practice #1 - 19th
Final Practice - 24th
Qualified - 32nd

If you are digging for a low end flyer this week take a shot with Cassill in the #38 Front Row Motorsports car. His 4th place finish here back in the fall of 2014 is his only Top 5 in his career. He has also seen an average place differential of +10 in the last five years at Talladega. If he qualifies near the back again this week I will have a ton of exposure in GPP formats and he would become a stars and scrubs cash game play as well.

Also Consider - David Ragan, David Gilliland

 

 

Post Practice & Qualifying Update

Qualifying Top 10

 

 

An Elliott is on the pole at @TalladegaSuperS once again. Recap» https://t.co/JzF796JFqi @chaseelliott #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/BvMk7NyHga

— FOX SPORTS: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) April 30, 2016

 

 

If you have any questions on lineups or drivers prior to lineup lock scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.

 

Good Luck everyone!

 

 

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Geico 500? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings and FantasyFeud Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.