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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/29/16 Opening Round
Friday’s schedule is full of late-series elimination games. Charlotte will try to finish off the Heat at home, while the Blazers and Raptors will attempt to end their respective series on the road. Elimination games up the intensity even further and it will be interesting to see if the road teams can close out in front of hostile crowds. Game 6 at home down 3-2 amounts to a Game 7 for the host. Game 5 in all three series was tightly contested until the end (the Blazers pulled away early in the fourth quarter). If you add it all up, we should have a full slate of compelling contests. The real DFS narrative on Friday is much like Wednesday – there are (even) few(er) options to spend salary. The bargains are so good you pretty much have to play them, and the handful of upper-end players are likely to be widely owned as well. Much of the player analysis below centers on salary and math (and the lack of choices you’re left with).
Note that this article’s format changed when the playoffs started. Additionally, there won’t be a separate update article. Check back to this article throughout the day Friday and review the discussion in the comments below for updated information.
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Toronto Raptors at Indianapolis Pacers
Analysis
This series has seen some stop-on-a-dime momentum switches. Before Game 5, the margin of victory in each contest was double digits. Two of those four victories were by the road team, so home court hasn’t been a decisive factor, nor have injuries played a role. I’m sure a lot of people anticipate another Raptors playoff choke, and our offshore friends have in fact given the Pacers roughly four points relative to their previous home lines. The Raptors switched up their rotations in Game 5, giving Luis Scola a DNP-CD, starting Patrick Patterson, and essentially giving more minutes to Bismack Biyombo. We’re anticipating something similar in Game 6. Game 5 also saw Myles Turner play much better in his second game in the starting lineup, and Paul George’s monstrous performance couldn’t pull off a win. There is not much to indicate unusual performances, and these picks reflect that.
Top Value Plays
Kyle Lowry - FD 8000 DK 7800
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 40.95 DK Proj. Pts - 43.34
Lowry represents the best value by far at the higher end of the salary spectrum (unbelievably, you have to define that as $7k+ on Friday). He’s also the second-best PG option in Pts/$ terms on FD and DK. Absent salary constraints, you’d have a few options, but he’d still represent the best combination of value and spending opportunity. Counterintuitively, another thing in his favor is his lackluster performances in the previous two games. Recency bias suggests he’ll be less heavily owned than others in his price range, making Lowry almost the only (relatively) top-dollar semi-contrarian play. If you trust the projections (you should), you can run him over Damian Lillard for roster differentiation.
Paul George - FD 9400 DK 10000
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 42.29 DK Proj. Pts - 44.89
By far the highest-priced player on the board, PG-13 isn’t projected for outstanding multiples on FD or DK. He’s under consideration (actually a must-play on FD) because of two things that aren’t there: other options at SF and places to spend. His floor isn’t great but tolerable, and he will be motivated to avoid elimination at home. As you’ll see below, you’re really going to have trouble allocating your full salary on Friday. Paul is one of the places you’re almost forced to go on FD.
George Hill - FD 4700 DK 4600
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.39 DK Proj. Pts - 24.98
George Hill is a sneaky-good PG option on Friday. He has way over-performed for his price over the last three games, posting a 5.5x, 8x, and 6.5x. He’ll continue to get low-to-mid 30s minutes, and while his shot volume can vary from game to game, his peripherals (especially on DK where he’s rewarded for the 3) keep his floor high enough to avoid disaster on most nights. If you’re looking for a pivot of the Rivers/Lowry/Lillard trio, give Hill consideration. That’ll pretty much only apply for tournaments, as cash game lineup options are highly restricted (especially on FD).
Myles Turner - FD 5600 DK 5200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 27.92 DK Proj. Pts - 29.03
I pointed out earlier that Turner stepped into the starting lineup in Game 4 of the series. He shot terribly from the field, leading to a lower-than-expected fantasy output, but his other stats were right in line with the last several games. He reverted to form in Game 5 and put up a 6x. Unless you think a guy who shot 50% on the season is likely to go 2-for-13 again, trust the production level and minutes. Myles is the top PF option on DK (where Jeff Green is a SF) and among the best on FD (where you need two, and after Green your only real alternative is stomaching Frank Kaminsky). Get him in your lineups.
Patrick Patterson - FD 3700 DK 3700
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 18.07 DK Proj. Pts - 20.01
2-Pat (my favorite nickname among many out there) is the low-cost play of the night. It’s hard calling him a punt with playoff pricing and relative spending opportunities, but that’s what he’d be in the regular season. His minutes didn’t go up with his starting gig, but his usage did. He promptly shot 30% from the field. That’s low even for him, and he also failed to put up his usual blocked shot per game. Another make from the field and a block and he’s easily returning value. Patterson is less pricey than Turner, making for a decent tourney pivot play on FD. On DK he’s a solid second choice and excellent opportunity for a positional change-up, again mainly for tourneys.
Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets
Analysis
This series did a 180 when it hit Charlotte. After cruising in the first two games at home, the Heat have dropped three straight and head into the Hive with some questions to answer. They’ve lost two consecutive tight games to a team without much playoff experience (the disparity between the teams is enormous), including a true choke job at home. Everyone expected the Heat to show up in crunch time. It’s really crunch time now for Miami, with their playoff lives on the line. I’m not entirely sure why Josh McRoberts saw so much run last time out, but I hope for Miami’s sake it was a Spoelstra brain cramp. As for Charlotte, Nic Batum returned, and Courtney Lee actually got to rest for more than six minutes. The rotations moved toward normal and Batum should play at least as many minutes as Game 5.
Top Value Plays
Hassan Whiteside - FD 8200 DK 8000
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 38.29 DK Proj. Pts - 38.94
I honestly didn’t know who to lead with for this game. Whiteside has a low floor but relatively high ceiling for his price. Those looking to spend should look at him (particularly on DK). Beyond that, I don’t have much to say here. There’s a less costly, high-floor/higher-ceiling (hopefully obvious) alternative on FD. On DK Hassan is a viable place to park some dollars at a reasonable multiple. He is a nightly candidate to really go off, but his price point has reached the level where he’s unlikely to post a truly game-changing multiple.
Joe Johnson - FD 4800 DK 4700
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.38 DK Proj. Pts - 25.45
I guess I could have led with Johnson, but that just felt wrong. He is somehow the top SF play of the night on FD and the best DK play without the last name of Green. He didn’t get his shots in Game 2 and couldn’t hit them in Game 3, but performed as expected in Games 4 and 5. We should see more of the same on Friday. Combined with the dearth of alternatives at SF, that makes him a chalk play on FD and a reasonable alternative on DK. Seriously.
Jeremy Lin - FD 4900 DK 5000
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.75 DK Proj. Pts - 24.76
The third and final recommendation from this game is Lin. Batum’s return adds some risk, creating a microscopic floor. On the other hand, he’s been playing really, really well in real-world terms and produced above value for fantasy purposes. The best I have for you here is this: on FD, you need two shooting guards, and if you don’t want two Clippers, Lin’s the next-best option. I have nothing at all for you on DK, where he’s listed as a PG and not terribly attractive. Mercifully, we get to move on to the DFS game of the night.
Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers
Analysis
The game script here is the same as Game 5. The undermanned Clippers will look to compete with Portland, and the few players still able to get on the court and play at an NBA level will get heavy minutes and usage. The Blazers will look to execute the coupe-de-grace and put LA out of its misery with a fourth straight win. The only reason to expect their rotations or minutes to change much is blowout risk, but in a playoff clincher I think Portland is likely to keep the regulars on the court most of their usual minutes, even in a rout. Given the lack of variables in this game (and references above) I expect you are anticipating the next section.
Top Value Plays
Jamal Crawford - FD 5200 DK 5600
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 35.4 DK Proj. Pts - 38.4
Austin Rivers - FD 4200 DK 3900
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 24.44 DK Proj. Pts - 26.19
Jeff Green - FD 4900 DK 4200
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 26.4 DK Proj. Pts - 27.96
J.J. Redick - FD 4300 DK 4300
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.36 DK Proj. Pts - 26.38
I figured I’d just cut to the chase. These four Clippers are the top four plays on DK, at any position. They represent four of the five top values on FD. If you like Pts/$ (the way we define value in DFS), run them (or as many as you can). Each will see major minutes and usage. They’ll probably all lose, but they’ll go down swinging. On FD, you actually have to choose three of the four for salary reasons (I’d suggest overspending on the Lowry/Lillard PG combo rather than running Rivers – you can’t afford to leave cash on the table caused by rostering him, in terms of raw fantasy points). On DK, you now have your SG, G, and Utility positions filled, plus the SF of the night. You won’t be standing out from the crowd, but you can do that a couple of other places. You have choices to make at PG, PF, and C on DK (and second choices at SF and PF on FD). Make those count.
Mason Plumlee - FD 6200 DK 6700
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 33.15 DK Proj. Pts - 33.64
Are there more reasons so few lineup choices exist, you ask? Mason Plumlee is the chalk play of the night at Center on FD (like Joe Johnson at SF – I can’t believe I typed that). It’s not even close. You’ll even find it difficult to justify leaving him off your roster on FD based on salary issues, as there are better ways to mete out your dollars. On DK, Whiteside is a lot closer in value, and you may need to go there for spending reasons (I just did the math, and that’s pretty much the case).
Damian Lillard - FD 8200 DK 8500
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 40.83 DK Proj. Pts - 43.92
Having just mentioned him, you had to figure this was coming. Lillard is comparable to Lowry on FD in Pts/$ terms. Ideally, you could choose, providing a scarce opportunity to distinguish your roster from others’. Unfortunately, as also stated above, you pretty much have to run both to spend anywhere close to your full salary. On DK, he’s close to Lowry, with a slightly lower floor and a slightly higher ceiling. You have an option there.
Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5900 DK 5700
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 26.08 DK Proj. Pts - 27.08
And finally, if you insist on passing on Clippers and spending up instead at other positions, Aminu is a decent SF option on FD. That’s one way to fade Paul George. The DFSR projections don’t care much for Aminu’s DK value on Friday.
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image sources
- Paul George, Reggie Jackson: (AP Photo/R Brent Smith)
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FD’s main GPP almost half way filled and I am patiently waiting for DFSR’s picks for Friday. I also like Wade as I think he will come out and try to dominate in hopes to force a game 7. He almost was able to do it himself Game 5. Also, thoughts on Deandre trying to step up once again for the depleted Clippers squad?
1). Am I the only one who seemingly never gets 5x (let alone 6x) value from any Clipper ever (save for CP3 & on rare occasions, Crawford & DJ)? I don’t trust Redick or Rivers to ever overproduce to the degree that they frequently tank ;and 2)). If those ‘G’s not getting it done (Crawford’s return respectable Gm 5), why is Pregoni not seeing time? Lastly, 3). Why do the projections always have S. Hill getting next to nothing, when seems to me, he sees more minutes (near 28 MPG) and shot opportunities than does CJ Miles?
This seems highly unlikely to me. Near absurdly so…
Jamal Crawford – FD 5200 DK 5600
Opponent – POR
DK Proj. Pts – 38.4
He’s capable. He’s done it before, but to project that or to buy into that projection is a total leap of faith and not grounded in any recent reality. Why didn’t he do that Wednesday? Let’s not forget that he’s sharing shots with Reddick and The Coach’s D-League son…
solomon hill has gotten minutes but hasnt cracked over 20 fantasy points in over 5 games even tho hes been getting 25 plus minutes a night since the playoffs started
For FD should I do Lillard/Lowry combo or Lillard/Walker for PG. Idk I just haven’t been too impressed sith Lowry this series, but it is the playoffs lol.
The FD thurs-Frr GPP has Batum at 6% ownership. food for thought for those signing up for today’s slate. Granted this included a thursday game so the numbers are a bit off. but based on a 6% ownership last night, I’d say he caps at 20% tonight.
Beauty of multi day gpp’s. use the ownership info for the next day’s slate
Thanks for the nice tip!
So did AZ ban DFS? I’m in Phoenix for bus and trying to set FD entries, but getting notice I can’t play in my state? Options to get around this?
Hey Ben.
You don’t like Kemba Walker tonight? The guy has been money at the Hive. You don’t think he shows up big to close out a playoff series at home?
I think Kemba could actually be a great GPP play. I think Lilliard and Rivers will dominate the bulk of pg picks. I wouldnt use Kemba in a cash game, but a gpp seems a perfect contrarian play to lilliard. Im rolling with 25 lineups tonight (plus 30 from last night into tonight) Id say about 1/3 of my lineups have kemba in them
AGREE
Yeah I’m rolling with wade in a must win also, and coming in a little angry after the no call the other night even tho I’m not sure it was a foul. Crawford shot under 30 percent the other night if you want to take the risk that he’s not going to get hot do it, but not this guy. 40 fp at least if he’s hitting his shots and there was even a game earlier this season we he scored 70 to 80 fp. Rolling with Crawford every lineup
If prodded enough somewhere near half, he’ll turn the ball over to show he’s alive and then go ‘all ham’ for maybe 9 points. I play him too. I always regret it. (Turner was only $100 more on DK, though his last game was weaker than Marv’s, his 4-day was better).
Does anyone think Marvin will score tonight?
Green gets you Marvin’s numbers or more, and at a lower price on FD.
FantasyAces Premier Lineup for tonight:
G D.Wade 32.99 5,750.00
G J.Crawford 23.97 4,500.00
G A.Rivers 17.00 4,350.00
F P.George 39.92 6,200.00
F L.Deng 29.70 4,750.00
F J.Green 20.30 4,600.00
C D.Jordan 38.51 6,150.00
Util M.Plumlee 25.90 4,750.00
Util A.Aminu 22.55 3,950.00
If you’re new to Aces please use this link to sign up:
http://fantasyaces.com/r/TheWalrus82/
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FD LU:
Lillard
Walker
Wade
Crawford
George
Johnson
Turner
Green
Plumlee
Got a feeling about this LU tonight, but then again I’m sure that there will be many duplicates. That would be OK, as long as I hit for some $$$.
I have that same lineup and I feel really good about it. I was debating doing another one as well with Harkless and Mccolum over Wade and Johnson for some variety
I live in CA but I’m heading to Nevada this afternoon. I set some lineups & im wondering if I’ll still be able to play? Anyone else ever deal with this? Thanks
Steve, lock your lineups in before you cross the state border. You can watch the results, but you cant edit lineups or do anything of functionality within the state
I live in Atlanta, and about once a week, DraftKings tells me my account is restricted, that I’m in a non-authorized jurisdiction, …. I just refresh the screen and it goes away. I would at first write to Cust Service, but it always fixed itself before I even bothered to see if my inquiries were answered.
Is FanDuel now illegal in Georgia??? I set some lineups this morning and then got on a few minutes ago and am now getting a message that I can’t play in paid games at my location!!! Help!!!!
Cody, this is our last weekend of Fan Duel in Texas for paid games too. Come Sunday we will only have the option to play for free or switch to another site. I will need to set an account up with DK and learn the system. I feel your pain.
try yahoo its not that bad i like it cause even if i dont hit big as long as i score within the top 1136 out of like 4.5k i won my money back and im up a dollar
I agree….Yahoo is not as hyped as the other sites, but I’ll tell you that you can take down some prizes there, even if the pots are not as lucrative. It’s the site where I came out in 1st place out of 1488 contestants in an NHL tourney, I haven’t come close on FD.
I got the same thing on draftkings in Oregon. Had not heard a thing about it.
Agreed. Even if his Dad was paying him extra allowance for the number of shots taken, I’d still take The Blazers Third SG off the Bench (Crabbe at 2600 on Dk’s). I haven’t looked (bad night, but probably not alone). I wasn’t seeing more than 20 pts for him, and even if he was only $3400 I’m not paying that when I don’t have to (Dittor JJR. He’s what $4200 & MIGHT get 28? Uh Uh.. I played Crawford (with hesitation) and Crabbe in instances where Reddick and Rivers were about equally priced out as pairs and (at time I did), I knew that both JJR and A. Rivers were starters and knew/thought Crawford and certainly Crabbe off the bench. Minutes matter, but only if you don’t get enough to shoot ten times. For some, that’s about 8 minutes.
Wondering why there is so much run on Rivers. The last time he went over 19 FPS essentially was against Phoenix on 4/13. Since then he has failed to impress me, even being thrust into the starting lineup he has struggled. He may be a decent punt, but in this slate, surly one could find better options. I know I will be avoiding him until he can put up better numbers.
Because on a gpp hes phenomenal. For his price, he can hit 40fpps close to 10x value. Or he can put up another dud. But if you watched when he filled in for Paul a couple weeks ago, he was raining shots from all over the court. People are hoping for a repeat of that night,
Understandably I agree with your statement and no argument on his ability, but my recent exposure to him in my lineups has cost me. I know he has a great upside and surely if he hits that and you have him rostered you are likely to cash big in a GPP, but it just seems until he becomes more consistent, there are better options on the board.
That being said, he will likely put up those 40FPS tonight, so being the superstitious cat that I am, I will lock him into at least one GPP, likely in the late slate.
And if you aren’t too busy, Ben, what are your thoughts on Batum tonight? I have heard he will be coming off the bench again tonight, but have a sneaky suspicion he may see 30 minutes if there’s a chance to put away the Heat. This should be an interestingly competitive game at any rate.
Thanks for that info ben. Guess I shld hsve set before I left Nc for az. Damn. Last night of large playoff slate too. May have to call in a favor to friend in nc unless I can figure some way to pirate a feed from outside az.
Think my issue had to do with location services bouncing off a tower from Alabama. Contacted FD and issue has been resolved!! Whew!!!!
Batum- Im all in on him. Covered my ass with a few lineups without. But Im convinced he could be the GPP play of the night. When I looked at my thurs-fri lineups last night and saw 6% ownership, I almost crapped myself. Initial thought was there was some new news on him. nothing. If that ownership is indicative, youre looking at possibly the best value of the night.
Not starting doesnt bother me. He’ll get his 30 minutes and I bet he has a Jamal Crawford upside type impact as a 6th man.
I thought you’d feel that way too. Most folks will likely remain cautious of rostering him again, but I think he’s going to ball out tonight. That is, barring a set back with the foot.
Just curious what you guys are basing that on regarding Batum. Guy is solid, but in terms of upside, there just hasn’t been all that much production from him in this series. Regular season he was a beast for the most part, but no way do I expect a big night from him in this spot.
Michael- get a family member to log on for you and adjust. I’ve had to do that a couple times myself.
Tonights lineup count-
26 entered for Thurs-Fri 2$ gpp
26 entered for fri night 3$gpp
25 entered for 1$ gpp
2 entries for the 25$ gpp
Anyone trust Lowry for cash play? He’s been barely scraping his way to 30 fantasy points lately. And ever since it was announced (roughly a month or so ago I think) that he has a bursitis problem in his shooting elbow he’s been shooting sub 40% from the field. Look it up it’s true. Sub 40% is bad and we have a decent sample size now at this point in time. I have lillard/Aminu right now for cash and Lowry/deng for gpp. The writeup today has me questioning myself. Particularly with how high they are on Lowry and the mention at the end about Aminu not being a strong play on dk. But If I go lillard at pg, my money falls on Aminu at util. Any thoughts or comments are appreciated.
And anyone who thinks I’m a nut case (it may be true) for constantly bringing up the bursitis thing, Google search elbow bursitis. Now try imagining shooting a basketball consistently at an nba level with that in your shooting elbow. Sounds like a tall task to me. The good thing with Lowry is he can get 40+ points without scoring much, but it sounds too risky for me
I buy in to the busitis… To an extent. If lowry sees his shot fall early, I feel adernaline takes over and he’ll have an adjusted shot(injusry compensating adjustment) thats falling. Again, the thinking is sound. Use him for gpps and fade for cash
Thanks Ben. Appreciate the feedback. I’ll roll with what i’ve got.
Anyone buying into Marvin. Seems like if he can score hes good for 30 in FD
any thoughts on McCollum tonight?
Any thoughts on Whiteside and his swollen hand tonight?
I think Mccullum will have a good game but I like Crawford’s upside he only went 3 for 20 and still had almost 29 FD points I look for a big game from him tonight with the clippers facing elimination
Whiteside said his hand is just fine. for what its worth
Until the hornet’s swipe at it
UPDATE***Premier FantasyAces L/U has changed:
G K.Walker 36.74 6,100.00
G D.Wade 32.99 5,750.00
G C.McCollum 31.07 5,200.00
F P.George 39.92 6,200.00
F P.Patterson 16.47 3,600.00
F L.Deng 29.70 4,750.00
C M.Turner 23.28 4,400.00
Util J.Crawford 23.97 4,500.00
Util M.Harkless 18.13 4,500.00
What happened to Rivers??
What do you mean?
I was referring to Walrus’ updated lineup. He had Rivers in it originally.
Is that the new big money lineup walrus lol
Wade for only 32 minutes tonight in a must win? If the game stays close, I would think he’ll put up monster minutes tonight. I was surprised how much Spols sat his starters in the fist half last game. I can’t see him making that same mistake this game. His starters have all off season to rest.
I don’t disagree in principle but it’s tough. They really manage minutes and all of the games have been high leverage
Thanks, I’m rolling with your projections tonight! Except Wade, I really like Wade tonight! Projections have been great for about 3 nights in a row!
What are they managing wades minutes for tonight? The offseason?
Gotta keep in mind how the human body functions. You can’t go full speed for 48 straight minutes without sacrificing some level of explosiveness and ability by the end of it. They want Wade playing at 100% full strength for every second he’s on the court and to finish the game playing like the prime D Wade we all know. Sometimes your backup with fresh legs is better than your star who’s out of breath, even for just a few minutes at a time. Anyway, just my opinion. Obviously i have no idea what Spo is really thinking. But i’d guess this isn’t too far off. Wade isn’t 21 anymore. It’s not necessarily about preserving him for some future date but making sure he’s as effective as possible while he’s out there.
Edit* it’s hard to go full speed for 48 minutes, not necessarily impossible. But i don’t think it’s in the cards for Wade to be as effective at the end of the game as he was at the start if he’s out there for 40+ minutes.
This doesn’t mean he won’t have a good game though…
I can’t wait for some DFS tonight! Should be competitive and good games!
Well I finally figured out how to stop myself from last second editing. Just build yourself 75 lineups and all for a sudden, last second edits seem daunting.
That’s crazy! Hope u win big money
Would Powell from the raptors be a good pick?
Goood luck out there tonight!!
Well I guess I’ll stick with Lillard over Kemba and Kyle
Holy crap Paul George with the highest ownership % I’ve ever seen
Oh why oh why did I let the optimizer talk me into Batum?! Garbage!
Batum and Marvin Williams must have non-cancel tickets to Cancun on Monday!!! Like they don’t even want to win this game and then get put out in Miami on Sunday! Awful!!!
Idk where batum came up on your optimizer but sure glad he wasnt on any of mine
Pre game news indicated he would play more minutes this game. That obviously was not the case.
Michael, Batum and Williams were on the #1 lineup on the optimizer for 8pm lineup. Looking like Deng and Kaminsky were the plays. Batum was a risky play but with him sitting so much this game Williams should be doing something!! Zero points??? Crazy!! It’s like these guys take a game off after a good game. Examples just this past week:
Millsap
Williams
Whiteside
Derozan
Aminu
Amir Johnson
Lin
Patterson
Barnes
Just hoping Lillard, Plumlee, Green, and Crawford bring it tonight!!
I have them in all my lineups leftover from last night and am already close to the cashing mark.
Add Whitside to that list above. Think I may stay away from all the young players now that we are entering game 6s and 7s and stick with the veterans for the rest of the playoffs
Can go ahead and add Harkless to that list. Avoided him like the plague.
I had batums minutes down which put walker in premier lu and dropped rivers. Those on aces that played the lu are smiling right now
Would LOVE to get OT in this game and hope beyond hope that LA wins so we can keep getting these great Clip plays on the cheap!!!
Man! Talk about small miracles… Plumlee just hit 3 out of 4 FTs to put my double ups into the cash by 1 pt…
Correction… Not by a pt… Right at the cash line