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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

05/02/2016
James Davis

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/3/16 Playoffs

 

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Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors


Analysis
These two teams played about the ugliest 7 game series that I can recall in recent league memory, and now we get to watch another hard fought slog in round 2. Huzzah! The Raptors and Heat each played a bottom 5 PACE this season. They also played a top 10 defensive efficiency each.

The game has a 191 O/U. Barf.

That said, this game should be a much more even contest than the Trail Blazers/Warriors, and there are still some values to be had.

Top Plays
Joe JohnsonJoe Johnson - FD 4700 DK 4700
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.97 DK Proj. Pts - 26.03
DeMarre CarrollDeMarre Carroll - FD 4400 DK 4300
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.23 DK Proj. Pts - 25.08
The cheap small forwards. Both are set to play tons of minutes in game 1, and while Carroll makes for a very bad match-up for Johnson, pickings are slim on a 2 game slate with a game featuring two grind-it-out half court teams. I'm particularly intrigued by Carroll's huge game 7 minutes against Indiana. If he's really ready to go, he could have serious upside - he was a $6,000 player when getting these minutes in the past.

Dwyane WadeDwyane Wade - FD 7500 DK 8200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 38.12 DK Proj. Pts - 38.71
DeMar DeRozanDeMar DeRozan - FD 7400 DK 7000
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 35.83 DK Proj. Pts - 36.76
The expensive two guards, coming off of two very different series. Wade was steady before turning in a fantasy dud in admittedly fewer minutes in game 7. DeRozan was all over the place, but put the Raptors on his shoulders as they closed out the Pacers. They'll likely be defending one another here, and my guess is that both will save some energy for the offensive end. I far prefer Thompson at similar prices, below, but wouldn't mind either. Really, it's a too-rich day for shooting guards, with the 2s from all 4 teams going as viable fantasy options.

Also considered: The point guards! Dragic was great in an increased role in game 7, and with Josh Richardson still a bit banged up (whatever the Heat claim), I suspect he'll be in for more looks in game 1 here. As for Lowry, he looks a little expensive for me given the other options out there, but I won't rule him out depending on how the money shakes out when I start running the lineup optimizer.

DFSR 705x90

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors

Analysis
After a game one gutting, the already seemingly too-high line of -7.5 jumped to -9.5 in the Warriors' favor. And the scary thing is, Golden State really could have played better. Combining a devastating 55-40 rebounding advantage with their typical sharp-shooting, the game was a bigger blowout than the 12 point difference suggests.

All that said, Portland certainly could have been better as well. Lillard, McCollum, and Plumlee all seemed too small for the stage, but after getting their asses handed to them, I personally think they'll be playing a little looser in this one. Given that everyone basically got their minutes in game 1 in what could wind up being the most lopsided game of the series, I suspect that will be the case here as well.

In addition, this game will have an over/under 20 points higher than the Raps/Heat game. That is a TON. Whatever fears you might have, it's going to be tough not to have significant exposure to these teams any time they meet for the rest of the series.

Top Golden State Value Plays
The Starters.

Golden State went "big," at least for them - Bogut was on pace to play the far top end of his minutes, Harrison Barnes led the team in minutes for the first time all season, and they essentially ran the offense through Draymond Green. Here's the order that I'd prioritize them today, prices willing:

Draymond GreenDraymond Green - FD 9300 DK 10600
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 44.74 DK Proj. Pts - 47.2
The Blazers front court does a handful of things well, but they simply have no one that that handle Green's particular offensive game. Plumlee can't handle the pick and roll well enough, and Davis is too much of an offensive liability to stay on the court. Kerr is going to make the Blazers prove they can stop Green before trying anything else. He's tougher to play on DK.

Klay ThompsonKlay Thompson - FD 8000 DK 8700
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 43.99 DK Proj. Pts - 47.77
28 shots, and it would have been more if the game had stayed close. Klay is going to have to put up huge totals with Steph missing, even with Green playing phenomenally. I'll play him everywhere.

Harrison BarnesHarrison Barnes - FD 4400 DK 4400
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.72 DK Proj. Pts - 25.37
Do you trust the huge minutes increase in game 1? I do. I see no reason why Barnes would have played extra minutes if that isn't simply the game plan here. He's a versatile piece that can handle several of the Portland wings defensively, and the Dubs have to love his contributions on the boards in the big game 1 win.

Andrew BogutAndrew Bogut - FD 4500 DK 4000
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 24.13 DK Proj. Pts - 24.56
Shaun LivingstonShaun Livingston - FD 4600 DK 5400
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 22.33 DK Proj. Pts - 22.5
Cheaper, but still high floor from where I'm sitting. Bogut destroyed Plumlee on both ends in game 1, and since the Trail Blazers arguably would prefer to play small, I think he'll get even more minutes in game 2. As for Livingston, I thought he'd play more minutes in game one, but he was still serviceable on these prices in game 1, and as far as I'm concerned - that was his minutes floor.

The Trail Blazers
Damian LillardDamian Lillard - FD 8400 DK 8900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 45.48 DK Proj. Pts - 49.08
C.J. McCollumC.J. McCollum - FD 7000 DK 6600
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 34.98 DK Proj. Pts - 37.03
Lillard was good in game 1 in spite of shooting 8 for 26 from the field, and McCollum was generally awful. Still, there's a series price and opportunity mismatch here. The Blazers made it abundantly clear that they're not going down with these two on the bench, given that they played 40+ minutes each in a game that was essentially out of reach going into the fourth. I like Lillard a lot better because of McCollum's tough match-up (Thompson), but I don't mind either.

Also considered: Mason Plumlee, though you'll be getting him as a separation play today. He played about as badly as humanly possible in game 1, but it scares me that he lost his minutes. Still, he'll need to be a heck of a lot better if the Trail Blazers are to compete on the boards, and I suspect he'll at least get a chance to.

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88 Visitor Comments

  1. My preliminary DK GPP lineup. I’m stacking the POR/ GSW game heavily.

    Dame
    Klay
    Deng
    Green
    Bogut
    Crabbe
    Barnes
    Joseph

    What are everyone’s thoughts on this lineup?

    • I have a lineup in the quarter arcade matching that too.

  2. Thanks a lot Adams u cost me 7,000.00 on Fan Duel last night. Anyone have any early lineups for FD, Tuesday night?

  3. Hi Bramor this is my early FD cash lineup for Tuesday night.
    PG Lilliard Dragic
    SG derozan Thompson
    SF Carrol Barnes
    PF Green Deng
    C Bogut
    It’s early yet but this looks decent to me!!

  4. Very similar to mine. I have joe over carrol.

  5. I got my first 2 first places last night! Granted, it was the $1 mini dribbler and a $2 one hundred player tournament, but it still felt great! Thanks for the help!

  6. Had I entered that lineup in the $3 nba shot, I would have placed placed 3rd and banked way more $$

  7. These 2 game contests can be tricky… I stacked studs last night in DK and pulled 300 pts from 6 guys…. sad thing was the other 2 guys played but combined for 0 pts. Made money from it though.

  8. Kyle Korver is dead to me.
    What a scrub.
    Smh

    • LOL, until the next game and we have to find that perfect someone at his salary to fit….I know how you feel though. Once again he was in the majority of my rosters and cost me dearly.

    • Barnes is $500 cheaper and gonna play 10 more mins than igupdala

  9. Barnes played 38 minutes buy only scored 25.4 fantasy points. He is one of those guys that plays a ton of minutes buy is not an efficient enough player that scores enough to warrant consideration. Iguodola for example can play 25 minutes and score 30-35 points because he can score, assist, rebound, and steal. Only put Iguodola in if you believe he will get his full run. Barnes is too risky.

  10. I am completely uncomfortable with rostering either Harris or 2pat at pf for double ups. Am I completely off base here? So I ran the optimizer with Deng and Green locked in and liked that a whole lot better. It also eliminated Lowry, who has been a liability for me lately. I think the projection was right around 3.8 pts less than the original optimal lineup.

  11. At this point, I hate both Korver and Schroder right about now. The one you play out of the two gets you about 10 points while the other goes off for about 40.

  12. I think Ed Davis may be a sleeper pick. Portland is gonna need more size in the paint to stop Bogut imo.

  13. Quote Clay from yesterday:

    “finished 11th out of 3000(something or another)
    The point is: I know my shit.”

    This sounds like:
    I won a lottery ticket, I know my shit

    LOL

  14. You had to bring up Korver, didnt you? lol

  15. I mean, you can make profit every night, double triple even sometime ten times of your bet.
    But finish top 30 is no easier than hitting lottery, so, you can’t come here and say I made it 11 out of 3000 last night and yall have to listen to me.

    BTW, Clay said Horford is a must play, top bet, best bet. So

    • Hi,ben. I went to yesterdays comment second and thank you for the fact,I won a ticket to a tournament on the fifth due to your info I used on a free fanduel tournament,last night. Using kanter and such was the right move. Again..Thanks!

  16. IMO, its about cashing long term and consistently. I placed 32nd out of 100,000 on Friday. Certainly doesnt mean i know my shit. The fact that I consistently cash a majority of my lineups in a gpp might however. lol

  17. need some cash game lineups for tonight on DK. I have struggled so far during the playoffs so could use some help.

    • I’ll do one right now Zac and post it

    • Fading Livingston, his ceiling is right around 30 or so, so since I’m only playing tourneys, I’ll look elsewhere. I do thnk that Aminu will play better:

      Lillard
      Dragic
      Thompson
      Wade
      Aminu
      Johnson
      Green
      Davis
      Plumlee

      Whatcha think? Coming right back w/Plumlee b/c his ownership will be down, and if Davis can come anywhere near his performance from he 1st game, I’ll take it.

  18. Wade and Derozan are both head scratchers. I mean Derozan averaged 29pts against MIA during the regular season. So, there is some recent history there. Don’t sleep on Lowry! If Kemba can torch Dragon and MIA then I’m sure that Lowry will torch Dragic as well. I like Derozan’s minutes, and the fact that they are at home. So….. Derozan by default.

  19. How does everyone feel about Patterson tonight? And would you play Dame and Livingston in the same lineup? This is for DK GPP

  20. derozen it is the home field advantage had me too but I’m not feeling Lowry he’s to wild some games he does good others he scrubs out

  21. I am gonna go with Whiteside with Center tonight.
    Simply because Lowry and Derozen. xD

  22. It was a tough matchup for Lowry last series. Hill is a tough defender. But towards the end of Game 7, Lowry started to come alive a little bit and helped seal the game. I believe he goes off for 35-40 pts tonight. MIA is horrible against Point Guards! Dragic cannot cover Lowry. Especially if Lowry gets hot from 3.

  23. Whiteside might get 30 rebounds with the bricks Lowry and Derozan put up.

  24. For FD:
    Lillard
    Livingston
    Klay
    Derozan
    Aminu
    Barnes
    Green
    Davis
    Whiteside

    Thoughts? Really need a win tonight. Playoffs have hurt me big time. Thanks

    • Steve that sounds risky to me. Not cash lineup I hope but could be good for gpp

  25. This is what I have for dk cash lineup tonight. I will say right now that I’m not as confident as I am on FD . Green is way too expensive to have a balanced lineup IMO. If someone has a better one with fray mind in it please post. Here’s my early dk one
    Remember it just has to beat half the field . 50/50
    Lilliard derozan Deng Patterson bogut Dragic Johnson Miami
    and Klay T

  26. Anyone think Plumee will show up and score a few points tonight?

  27. Draymond that was supposed to say not fray mind lol

  28. If dwrozen is good then Lowry sucks. These guys never share the wealth

  29. Westbrook aldridge and thompson came up big for me last night.. i’ve been on a two week win streak lets see if it keeps rolling tonight.

    FD Cash lineup :
    Lillard
    Dragic
    Thompson
    Derozan
    Barnes
    Joe J
    Green
    Deng
    Bogut

  30. Alex Im no shark by far but I like that lineup

  31. I’m going in with
    pg lillard livingston
    sg derozen Thompson
    sf Johnson aminu
    pf green deng
    c bogut

  32. Korver caused me a G last night!!!!

    • Omg, seriously? And I was sore about losing 10 bucks because of his dud.

  33. Ben…who you trusting tonight or is it another one of those nights you play a boat load of line ups…lol

  34. Ok, here’s my random free roll lineup. I mean seriously, who actually wins this thing, let alone places?

    Corey Jo, dragic, klay, wade, aminu, joe, green, mo buckets, plumlee.

  35. I do a boatload every night for GPPs lol. But i calssify them into one of two kinds of nights. Either Im in love with the optimizer and just make 30-35 permutations of what the optimizer gave me. OR on a night like tonight, I’ll make 30-35 lineups that cover as many player combos as I can get.

    Tonight my core players in most lineups are Green, Lillard, Lowry, Carrol, Aminu. Then I plug in the rest in different orders to cover as many as I can

  36. U trusting chief tonight? I have mixed feeling on Lowry, might play him more in tournaments

  37. Lowry is ONLY a gpp play. I wouldnt touch him in a cash game. Looking in my lineups add kaly thompson to that core group as well.

    Next tier is livingston/dragic/ barnes/deng

  38. Center tonight for GPP-Bogut looks tasty… I have all 4 of the relevant centers covered tonight however. I can see good/bads in whiteside, plumlee, val and bogut.

  39. Well, thought I could stay on the sideline after FanDuel went down in Texas a couple days ago but I just can’t. Going for DraftKings. Never used it but it appears to be slightly different than FD. Love the site DFSR. Been on for roughly 6 months and has been very useful!!

    • I recently joined and started playing on DK too Jimmy, due to the Texas restrictions. Still getting my feet wet, but like the quarter arcade. Smaller payouts, but you can enter a ton if LU’s and if you’re like me, any win is a good win. Only drawback so far is the android app doesn’t seem to update or refresh automatically. Maybe I am doing something wrong, but have to switch between screen on it to see the latest scoring.

  40. Now i have a dilemma. Dragic/bogut or livingston/JV for my cash lineup. I’m leaning towards livingston and JV because I’m not sold on bogut or dragic having a repeat performance while on the other hand livingston and JV are more consistent.

    • Alex, why don’t you look at Biyombo?

  41. PG livingston, Baby Dame
    SG Klay, Derozan
    SF Aminu, Harkless
    PF Green, Patterson
    C Whiteside

    Thoughts?

  42. Here is today’s premier FantasyAces lineup:

    G D.Lillard 39.06 6,300.00
    G K.Thompson 33.09 5,800.00
    G S.Livingston 17.50 4,200.00
    F A.Aminu 22.04 3,950.00
    F D.Green 39.46 6,500.00
    F L.Deng 29.79 4,750.00
    C M.Plumlee 26.15 4,750.00
    Util A.Bogut 20.84 4,500.00
    Util E.Davis 19.74 4,200.00

    If you’re new to FantasyAces…please support those that support you and sign up using this link:

    http://fantasyaces.com/r/TheWalrus82/

  43. Stuck between wade, iggy, and Harkless vs dame, Barnes, and Carroll. DK for cash

    • If you’ve been playing the system since the start of the playoffs you’re surely up. The past 2 nights though have undoubtedly hurt and it’s easy to not play after a couple bad outings.

  44. Anyone have any Nba Tourney line-ups for fanduel they are confident about? Thanks in advance.

  45. MY DK lineup as follows can’t do FD no more live in TX what a shame
    PG- Lillard
    SG- Thompson
    SF- Barnes
    PF- Green
    C- Biyombo
    G- DeRozan
    F- Patterson
    UTIL- Crabbe

    Looks great to me enter this in tons of 50/50’s and Multipliers tonight

  46. Jashawn- use an optimizer for your Fanduel and see what works for sorry no advice because I can no longer use FD live in TX.

  47. My FanDuel lineup
    Lillard
    Lowry
    Thompson
    Crabbe
    Aminu
    Carroll
    Green
    Patterson
    Whiteside

    • Looks rough to me Sarah, but that said, anything can happen. Looks like you are way under the cap, you might want to have another look.

    • I assume this is for tourney. Need to accept this kind of risk to have any shot at cashing in big. Mine is very similar. Way too risky for cash though.

  48. lowry
    lilliard
    derozen
    mcollum
    barnes
    iguadala
    green
    deng
    bogut
    what do u guys think?

  49. FD Tourney
    Lowry
    Lillard
    Thompson
    Crabbe
    Carroll
    Aminu
    Davis
    Green
    Whiteside

  50. did a couple line ups but i am not too confident about them seeing how i did yesterday lol, any advice or line ups you guys feel really confident in today? Thanks in advanced

  51. Going with something very similar Jared with a few alternate tweaks.

  52. My line for FD
    Lillard
    Dragic
    Thompson
    DeRozan
    Barnes
    Jo jo
    Green
    Deng
    Bogut
    Wut y’all think

  53. Rough………………….got ass kicked again last night……………only 33 cents left in FD account with enough Fan Duel Points to enter 1 more $1 contest…………………however………………………I am working in Texas so I’m blocked………………………..however…………………….I had $1 left in my draft kings account which I haven’t played in months and here is a real loser of a lineuo…………

    lillard
    Thompson
    carroll
    Patterson
    biyombo
    Livingston
    Johnson
    green

    thoughts for struggling Jim tonight?????????????

  54. That be crazy crazy to fade one of my lineups with green and go with this and stack the SG’s? DK cash
    Lillard Carrol
    Deroz Mccolum
    Deng
    Ed Davis
    Bogut
    Thompson

  55. the problem with Patterson and Biyombo is that they are so weak they cannot compete when they are given minutes…………….they basically suck………and yes they are pieces of shit!!!! you can scratch them off for this entire series with Miami……..they will be invisible.

    • no matter what the damn optimizer says………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..feel free to correct me if I am wrong

  56. beat down again………………………….it’s almost over for old jim

  57. I posted on here earlier to not play Korver, Bazemore and Tristan because of game plan changes etc. Looks like this site removed those posts too. I dont see them here.

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