Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/3/16


Welcome to Tuesday baseball! Yesterday was a very tough day for pitching with the top 3 options all having tough starts. However, today we have a few aces on the mound in good spots and some gas cans in spots to target. Make sure you check out our 3 other MLB articles as they will touch on any weather news, stacks and some more pitchers to target! Let's get into the top plays at each position!

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Jake ArrietaJake Arrieta FD 12100 DK 12100
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @PIT
FD - 42.41 DK - 23.32

What is there not to like about Jake Arrieta? Arrieta has been dominant to start the year with a .306 xFIP and a combined .236 wOBA. In 2015, Arrieta sported even better numbers with a .261 xFIP and a .264 wOBA. I expect Arrieta to continue the dominance and these Pirates aren't the team to slow him down. The Pirates trot out a team of 6 righties and 2 lefties + the pitcher. 4 of the 8 hitters in the lineup have over a 20% strikeout rate and each of them are righties with high pull %'s. PNC Park is one of the worst for right handed power as it had the 2nd least amount of home runs last season. I expect Arrieta to have another one of his great starts and he certainly brings the upside to push you to the top of the standings. Arrieta is my favorite pitcher in all formats as he provides you with the highest floor and ceiling on the slate.

Matt HarveyMatt Harvey FD 9500 DK 10300
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @NYM
FD - 40.6 DK - 22.37

Matt Harvey enters this game coming off 2 decent starts where he finally showed flashed of the old Matt Harvey. Harvey has been one of the most dominants pitchers in the league since 2012 but has recently struggled a bit. However, his peripherals suggest a completely different story. With a 24% hard contact rate, .356 BABIP and an 11% HR/FB rate this year, Harvey should be returning to the dominant pitcher he was a couple years ago. The Braves are one of the weakest teams in the league as they provide the strikeout upside without the home run downside. The Braves only have 5 home runs on the year and I don't expect them to add to that total here. Harvey is a great tournament play and someone I do not mind in cash. However, I do prefer Arrieta in cash.

Consider - Michael Wacha, Nick Tropeano

DFSR 705x90


Buster PoseyBuster Posey FD 3600 DK 4700
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.72 DK - 9.76

Buster Posey has had 3 good games in a row and will look to make it 4 here against Jon Moscot. Moscot, a 24 year old right hander with average stuff will likely struggle against these Giants. While Posey hits lefties much better, he is still the best catcher in the league vs righties. Over the past 3 seasons, Posey hit righties to a .362 wOBA and .500 Slugging Percentage. While Moscot has been league average against righties to start his career, we cannot trust a 13 inning sample size. At all. Posey is a great cash game play and tournament play as he is going from AT&T Park to Great American.

Brian McCannBrian McCann FD 2900 DK 3800
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.15 DK - 8.41

Brian McCann was the only guy I thought of before proclaiming Posey the best catcher in the league against righties. McCann has hit righties extremely well over the past few years with a .366 wOBA and a 37.1% hard contact rate. Chris Tillman on the other hand has been bad against lefties with a career .329 wOBA and 4.41 xFIP. McCann gives you a great chance at a home run tonight in Camden Yards. I do not mind McCann in both tournaments and cash games as I expect the Yankees team to put together a nice performance tonight.

Consider - Evan Gattis



Edwin EncarnacionEdwin Encarnacion FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.46 DK - 10.09

Edwin Encarnacion enters this game struggling on the season with only 3 home runs and a combined .320 wOBA. While those aren't terrible numbers, it is certainly not what we expect from one of the best power hitters in the game. However, his peripherals look just fine with an astounding 50% hard contact rate against lefties. Encarnacion will turn it around soon and the home runs will come in bunches. This could be a spot where E5 gets a hold of one or two. Martin Perez is a southpaw who has struggled against righties over the course of his career with a .337 wOBA and 4.37 xFIP. I look for Encarnacion to see some good pitches to hit in this one.

Lucas DudaLucas Duda FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @NYM
FD - 12.84 DK - 9.63

Duda and the Mets seem to have a great match up day in and out and just keep producing. Matt Wisler is somehow even worse against lefties than yesterday's pitcher Mike Foltynewicz. In 2015, Wisler gave up a putrid .417 wOBA and 6.43 xFIP to lefties. While I am not sure how someone with those numbers stays a MLB rotation, I'll take it. Lucas Duda is a righty smasher and sported a .354 wOBA in 2015 with a 39.6% hard contact rate. Everything is lining up for Duda to have a productive game here.

Mark TeixeiraMark Teixeira FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 12 DK - 8.97

Teixeira is going to be the second of 3 Yankees we are going to be targeting against Chris Tillman. Teixeira has always hit righties well as evidenced by his career .370 wOBA and .513 SLG. As mentioned above, Chris Tillman struggles against lefties and also has a tendency of getting blown up. In 2015, Tillman gave up 5 or more runs in 10 starts, which is horrible. The Yankees are in a great spot here and Teixeira will likely be right in the middle of the mix. Tex is a great play in all formats and should go under owned.

Consider - Anthony Rizzo, Jose Abreu



Rougned OdorRougned Odor FD 4000 DK 3700
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.18 DK - 9.02

Odor has been bouncing around from the 6 spot to the 1 spot all season. I prefer him much more in the 1 spot as it gives him a likely extra at-bat and is gives him a higher chance to get drove in by the bats behind him. Odor has hit righties extremely well since entering the majors with a .333 wOBA and 10% HR/FB rate. While Marco Estrada is actually an above average pitcher, he has a hard time keeping the ball in the park. In 2015, Estrada gave up a 1.19 HR/9 and his peripherals suggest it should of been around 1.50. Odor gives you plenty of power and speed upside in this match up.

Neil WalkerNeil Walker FD 4000 DK 4000
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.64 DK - 8.96

Neil Walker is another Mets bat who is on absolute fire lately and has been crushing everything thrown his way as evidenced by his 9 home runs and 19 RBI's on the year. However, Walker has always hit righties well and in 2015 exhibited that with a .340 wOBA and 35% hard contact rate. As mentioned above, Wisler is absolutely horrible against lefties and is going to get pummeled today. Neil Walker is a great cash game and tournament play as he is not reliant power and will get plenty of RBI opportunities.

Consider - Logan Forsythe, Jed Lowrie



Troy TulowitzkiTroy Tulowitzki FD 3600 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.37 DK - 8.65

Tulowitzki is a guy who seems to disappoint every time you roster him, I know. However, we have to look at the numbers here and those suggest Tulowitzki destroys lefties. Over the past 3 seasons, Tulo has hit lefties to a .396 wOBA. While a ton of those games were in Coors Field, he still held a .344 wOBA aginst lefties on the road. Martin Perez is one of the worst pitchers on the slate with a .347 combined wOBA and is someone that should be targeted today. I prefer Tulowitzki in tournaments as he has been struggling lately.

Brandon CrawfordBrandon Crawford FD 2800 DK 4100
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.32

Brandon Crawford is coming into this game after an explosion last night where he ended up with a home run and 4 RBI's. He will be facing off with Jon Moscot tonight in Great American Ballpark. I am going to have a ton of Crawford on FanDuel as his price is just too cheap at $2800. In 2015, Crawford hit righties to a .341 wOBA clip and a 123 wRC+. As mentioned above, Jon Moscot is a pitcher that should be picked on today with the hot San Francisco Giants bats. I expect Crawford to be hitting 6th tonight and is my pick at shortstop for a home run.

Asdrubal CabreraAsdrubal Cabrera FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @NYM
FD - 9.93 DK - 7.84

I just can't get over how bad Matt Wisler is against lefties and I am going to keep harping on these left handed Mets bats. They are all great plays. Asdrubal Cabrera has been good to start the year with 7 multi-hit games. Cabrera has hit righties well over the past couple years with a .323 wOBA and 127 wRC+. I will not go into how bad Matt Wisler is once again., just pick on him. I will be shocked if the Mets let him survive 4 innings. Cabrera is a great play in cash games and should be added to any Mets stack.

Consider - Aledmys Diaz, Carlos Correa


Josh DonaldsonJosh Donaldson FD 4800 DK 5200
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.84 DK - 10.5

Donaldson is entering this game with 9 home runs and has hit about 7 to the warning track. As mentioned above, Martin Perez is a pitcher who struggles against righties and struggles at keeping the ball in play. In 2015, Donaldson sported a rediculous .428 wOBA against southpaws and an insane 42% hard contact rate. As said, Perez is a pitcher we are looking to pick on. Donaldson is one of the best hitters in the league against lefties and is facing a poor lefty. Simple as that.

Alex RodriguezAlex Rodriguez FD 3500 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.39 DK - 8.66

A-Rod is going to be the 3rd and final Yankees bat we target here against Chris Tillman. While Tillman struggles against lefties, he is actually worse against righties. Over the past 2 years, Tillman has exhibited a .350 wOBA and 35% hard contact rate to righties. Alex Rodriguez is also a guy who has some reverse splits with a .369 wOBA over the past few seasons. Rodriguez is going from Yankee Stadium to Camden Yards, which is an upgrade for right handed power. A-Rod is my sleeper pick for home run of the night!

Consider - Martin Prado, Brandon Drury


Giancarlo StantonGiancarlo Stanton FD 4900 DK 5300
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @MIA
FD - 11.69 DK - 8.97

Giancarlo Stanton is my favorite outfielder of the day and it is not too close. Stanton obliterated left handed pitching as evidenced by his 2015 .470 wOBA and absolutely insane league leading 51% hard contact rate. I can't even explain how amazing a 51% hard contact rate is. However, I can explain how bad Patrick Corbin is. With a 2.87 BB/9, 2.01 HR/9 and a 40% hard contact rate against righties, Corbin will not last too long in this league. While the park is not tremendous for power, Stanton can hit it out of the Grand Canyon, let alone a baseball field.

Jose BautistaJose Bautista FD 4100 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.81 DK - 10.37

Jose Bautista is nearly a must play here in cash games on DK due to his price. At $4200, he is priced around guys that should be looking way up to Joey Bats. As noted a few times, Perez is a poor pitcher against lefties and someone the Blue Jays should be able to beat up on. After a disappointing night last night, I look for the Jays to bounce back here and finally show their full potential. Bautista has always hit lefties very well with a career .382 wOBA. I look for Bautista to get a hold of one tonight with guys on base.

Denard SpanDenard Span FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.35 DK - 10.38

While Denard Span is someone I rarely roster, he is one of my favorites tonight. I am sure by now you can tell how big of a fan I am of Jon Moscot. Moscot is going to get mashed tonight by these hot Giants bats. Span is going to be leading off and has hit righties extremely well over the course of his career. In 2015, Span held a .381 wOBA and also hit the ball hard to each part of the field. Span has great upside in this match up due to Jon Moscot struggling to hold runners.

Kirk NieuwenhuisKirk Nieuwenhuis FD 2000 DK 3700
Opponent - LAA (Tropeano) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.32 DK - 8.1

Sure, it might not be too fun plugging Kirk Nieuwenhuis into your roster. However, he provides us with home run upside at a cheap price. This is a FanDuel only play as he is priced at $3700 on DraftKings for some reason. Nieuwenhuis is a guy who has always hit right handers well as evidenced by his 2014 .361 wOBA and 40% hard contact rate. While Nick Tropeano is not a bad pitcher, he does struggle against the long ball and Miller Park is not the place to do that.

Consider - Curtis Granderson, Preston Tucker, Mike Trout

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49 Visitor Comments

  1. So what’s up with Lowrie at 2nd, not starting last night? Any insight into today? He’s definitely a money saver and I’d like to utilize him if possible

  2. What are your thoughts and I know he has really been struggling but taking a flyer on Russell Martin tonight for the Jays? Using your logic of Encarnacion/Donaldson/Tulo, you would think Russell may actually flex some muscle tonight??

    • Martin was/is dealing with a neck issue not using him until I see signs that he’s healthy

      • Chances are they wouldn’t bring him back until hes 100% healthy so if he is in there I am ok with using him

        • 100% or not somethings not right has K’d in almost half his ABs and personally wouldn’t use him until he shows some signs of life

  3. What do you guys think about samardzija? Good matchup with reds and a decent run total. Most likely a W, only issue from my side is that it is a hitters park.

    • Not a fan of his arsenal against these Reds. Suarez and Votto are gonna see him very well.

  4. Optimizer isn’t seeing the Boston game, the Phillies game, or the Brewers game (at least for pitchers).

  5. Is it smarter to play in large or small cash leagues.

  6. PLEASE!! Someone give my broke “can’t win a tournament to save my life” ass a good mlb draftkings line-up.Haha

    • Stop playing tourneys! I don’t mean to be crass, but Gpp’s are really hard to cash in. My DFS experience has been drastifcally more satisfying when I switched to playing cash almost exclusively. The reason is with GPP’s, in order to take one down or even place high enough to matter, you have lots of contrarian plays that hit. This makes it more volatile to begin with. If you play more 50/50s, you don’t have to take as many risks. I would seriously consider switching that part of my DFS game if I were you.

      • Agreed. I’m mostly cash with the exception of playing the giant 3.00 tourney as a lottery ticket

  7. Don’t really post lineups all that often but if you have any feedback, let me know.

    DK Cash
    Cabrera (mets)

    • I like it. However, a better play than Ruiz may surface once lineups come out.

      • Agreed. I’m thinking about swapping out Arod for Deitrich who’s dirt cheap on DK and upgrading Mazara to Stanton then filling it in with a punt at catcher once rosters come out.

    • Set your aside from the rest of the pack everyone and their momma going to go edwin I would adjust for votto or belt mascot avg 2.8 FP/PA

      • Typo..
        Set your yourself aside from the rest of the pack everyone and their momma is going to go edwin I would adjust for votto or belt, mascot avg 2.8 FP/PA vs LH

  8. I have a NYY stack with mini stacks from SF and NYM. Harvey as my P.

  9. Dietrich does seem like an incredible bargain but he has a serious reverse split. I doubt he’ll play tonight against a lefty.

  10. Crawford and Cabrera coming in at the same price on FD. Wise to add Cabrera to a Duda/Walker mini-stack in cash or roll with the discounted Crawford?

  11. 50/50 DK

    $3400 to spend on catcher

    Feedback always welcomed

    • With this lineup, I would take a look at J.T. Realmuto who is $3400 on DK. He is playing well. Last 3 games averaging 14 DK points.

      However, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that Chris Young is not a good pitcher. Especially for cash. I think you have to sacrifice a bat somewhere to upgrade your second pitcher.

  12. I second what Jerald says
    Lamb is pitching instead of Moscot

  13. Thoughts on Cashner as sneaky pitcher in FD?

  14. Ya baby. Realmuoto leadoff tonight . Lock and load. Must play. 3400 dk .

    • That’s a sweet price and lineup position. I still like Posey even at a pts/$ play though I think

  15. U betcha Deepak. If u don’t wanna spend up for Arrieta then wacha looks good or Harvey

    • Yeah. Posey in a much, much better hitter’s park than Realmuto with conceivably a better matchup. Though our system might be a little bullish on Corbin. I like both. It you are trying to fit the two big arms in Harvey and Arrieta then JT way to go for sure and it’s a good move.

  16. Thanks for the input. I actually made this switch.


    $300 left, but I think I like this for cash.

    • I really like that Matt. SP2 is tough to fill . I love the big bats u get in there. Stanton Joey bats and conforto at OF . Wow

  17. Anyone like Moore to go with Arrieta on dk?
    He fits pefectly in my lineup. Wacha doesn’t

  18. Thanks Ryan, I am using those two in tourney tonight. Think Moore is a nice play tonight.

  19. Thx Matt ya dodgers are crap right now

  20. Gotta go ump baseball an everyday occurrence finally. Good luck
    everyone tonight

  21. No Bruan today fellas. I think Tropeano looks even better.

  22. Even though he is expensive, I love when my numbers come out strong for a particular player and you’ve got him pegged here as well. 2 thumbs up for Josh Donaldson.

  23. DK Cash

    Matt Moore
    W. Castillo
    Danny Santana


  24. Anyone like Plouffe at 3B tonight as a discounted option instead of Donaldson in order fit a better SP2 in? Or do you like going Tropeano so that I can go Donaldson?

    • I like Tropeano enough to warrant the cash game play. That being said if really going cheap look at Gosselin/ Drury both hitting top of lineup for DBacks

      • Im basically at Matt Moore/Gooselin or Plouffe or Tropeano/Donaldson? Which do you prefer for cash?

  25. Just realized I am $200 over the cap. ANy suggestions?? Mazara for ??? or Keep Marara and switch W. Castillo for Realmuto?

  26. Stanton/Plouffe or Donaldson/Guyer? Which one for cash?

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