Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/4/16

Welcome to another busy day in daily fantasy baseball. There are 15 games throughout the day on Wednesday and we will touch on players across the entire slate. Be sure to check out the three other articles for today. We will cover our favorite stacks, top starting pitchers that were not covered in this article and a news and updates article. Good luck everyone!

 

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PITCHER

Early Slate
Steven Matz FD 9000 DK 9200
Opponent - ATL (Chacin) Park - @NYM
FD - 37.39 DK - 19.98

Matz is my favorite starter in the early slate and he has everything going for him on Wednesday. He is in a great spot vs. the Braves who own the worst wOBA(.248) and second worst strikeout rate(26.3%) vs. left handed pitching. Matz had a rough start to the year giving up seven earned runs to the Marlins but has been lights out since, going 3-0 with .93 ERA and striking out very close to 10 batters per nine innings. The Mets are big favorites at home and Citi Field has consistently been a great pitchers park. Roll with Matz in any format today.

 

Consider - Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester

 

Evening Slate
Jose Fernandez FD 10800 DK 11200
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @MIA
FD - 44.06 DK - 24.95

He is the highest projected pitcher of the entire slate and comes with huge strikeout upside in a home matchup vs. the Diamondbacks. For his career, Fernadez has a 1.61 ERA and very low .222 wOBA against playing at home vs. a 3.77 ERA and .284 wOPBA against on the road. It has been an up and down season to this point with a 2-2 record where he has allowed nine earned runs in the losses and only four total in his other four starts. He is pitching much better than his 4.08 ERA suggests as he is operating with a 2.81 xFIP at the moment. Oh ya, he also strikes out over 10 batters per nine innings for his career.

Mike Leake FD 6700 DK 7400
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @STL
FD - 31.18 DK - 15.95

If you are looking to stack your bats on the late slate Leake makes a terrific GPP play on FanDuel or second pitcher on DraftKings.  It has been a very disappointing start the season for him but he comes into this home matchup in a good spot to pick up his first win as a Cardinal. He doesn't strike many batters out(5.83 K/9) forcing him to be a ground ball pitcher and that is where the issue has been. He is currently only pitching to a 46% ground ball rate which is the reason for the four home runs he has given up in his last three starts. He will face the Phillies who currently rank 24th in team wOBA(.293) and own a -23 run differential on the season.

 

Consider - Carlos Rodon, Drew Smyly

CATCHER

 Early Slate
Jonathan Lucroy FD 3100 DK 3300
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.39 DK - 8.84

The top projected catcher of the early slate and always one of the most consistent options in daily fantasy. He has positive splits with a career .301 average vs. left handed pitching and comes into this game red hot. He has tallied a hit in five straight and 13 of his last 14 games with a 121 wRC+. He lacks the power upside needed for winning a GPP but makes a terrific cash game play in the early slate for the all day slate.

Evening Slate

Matt Wieters FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.25 DK - 8.66

Before getting  Tommy John surgery back in 2014 he had put together three straight seasons of 20+ HR for the Orioles. He is trying to recapture that success but before he can he will need to cut down on the strikeouts. Striking out shouldn't be a problem tonight vs. the Yankees who are throwing C.C. Sabathia out on the bump. His K rate has dropped each of the last three years and is currently sitting just over six K's per nine innings. He is also walking over four batters per nine while Wieters has an above average(9.7%) walk rate. It is also noteworthy that Wieters is a career .276 hitter vs. left handed pitching(only a .249 career average vs. righties).

Russell Martin FD 2100 DK 3100
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.49 DK - 8.04

I know what you're thinking, you don't need to say it. Martin has been absolutely horrible to start the year with a .141 average and 43.7%  strikeout rate while walking less than 10% for the first time since his rookie season back in 2006. I am going to go with the projection system on this one. He is close to the highest rated catcher on the slate(PTS/$) in a good spot to turn the offense around. He is facing   Colby Lewis who is a fly ball pitcher and striking out less than six batters per nine innings. Don't trust him in cash games but take a shot in GPP's here his slow start will leave him in the 1% ownership range.
Consider - Buster Posey

 

FIRST BASE

Early Slate

Chris Carter FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.65 DK - 9.48

It has been a terrific start to the season for Carter as he closed out April with five home runs and started May with two more. He has always been know for his power and has finally seen his strikeout rate fall below 30% for the first time since his rookie season in 2010. He has a tremendous hard hit ball % that is well above average at 37.9%. He hits in a prime spot in the order and will face a lefty Hector Santiago on Wednesday who is a fly ball pitcher(45% GB rate) and has given up five home runs in five starts this season. Load up on the Brew Crew.

Consider - Anthony Rizzo

 

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.29 DK - 10.71
Justin Smoak FD 2200 DK 3000
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.62 DK - 8.81

Trying to find the right opportunity to stack the Blue Jays power bats has been a challenge to say the least this season. They sit in the middle of the pack in team wOBA vs. both right handed and left handed pitching while striking out as a team close to 25% of the time. What happened to the patient Blue Jays from 2015? The projection system loves the Blue Jays bats tonight and it makes sense when you look at the matchup vs. Colby Lewis. Although he has started the season 2-0 in five starts he is striking out less than six batters per nine innings and has given up seven home runs. Smoak has been the more consistent player as of late with hits in seven of his last 10 games and has a really high 21% walk rate for the season. I would recommend using Smoak in cash games and Encarnacion for a GPP stack.

Mark Teixeira FD 3000 DK 4700
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.28 DK - 9.92

The power hitting first basemen is in a great spot for fantasy success on Wednesday in a matchup vs. soft throwing Tyler Wilson. After starting the year out in the bullpen, Wilson made two starts giving up a home run in each and has a strikeout rate below 5% for the season. Tex is a switch hitter coming off a season in 2015 in which he hit .296 with 25 home runs vs. left handed pitching. Load up on Yankess and Orioles as this game could be one of the highest scoring of the entire day.

 

Consider - Byung Ho Park

 

SECOND BASE

Early Slate

Colin Walsh FD 2100 DK 2000
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.16 DK - 7.28

If he is back in the starting lineup for the Brewers on Wednesday afternoon he makes a fantastic value play at minimum pricing on both sites. After spending the better part of five years in the Cardinals and Athletics minor league system, he has made his way to the majors via Milwaukee. He is still finding his way as a hitter striking out 22% of the time which has resulted in a very low .120 average. The good news is that he is a patient hitter(28% walk rate) and coming off a game where he was hitting 6th in the order. His low salary allows you to spend up on pitching and power.

Consider - Brandon Phillips

 

Evening Slate

Dustin Pedroia FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.61 DK - 9.12

The 32 year old veteran second basemen, in his 10th year in the league, is once again proven his critics wrong. He has been a very consistent fantasy option with a .324 average and has already recorded 19 runs scored which is currently 12th in the majors. He has also added some power with three home runs and 13 runs batted in.

Consider - Roughned Odor

 

SHORTSTOP

Early Slate
Jonathan Villar FD 3200 DK 3200
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.59 DK - 9.5

The Brewers have enjoyed the presence of their new shortstop hitting near the top of the order. Villar is walking over 13% of the time to start the year and sits with a .372 OBP which opens the door for a ton of runs with the power bats of Braun and Carter hitting behind him. He also presents extra upside with his speed as he sits second in the majors with eight stolen bases.

 

Consider - Ketel Marte
Evening Slate
Troy Tulowitzki FD 3400 DK 3600
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.95 DK - 8.33

His first full season with the Blue Jays isn't going exactly as planned as he is hitting just .165 and striking out a career high 29% of the time so far in 2016. He has shown the power in which he has provided throughout his career with five home runs and 13 RBI hitting out of the five hole. There are some positives to take out of the month of April and early days of May. He is walking 13% of the time and is due fro some positive regression as his BABIP is sitting at .179 for the season. He hits in a good hitters park in Toronto and should start to benefit once the top of the order gets it going. His early season struggles have helped lower his salary and his ownership making him a great GPP play on Wednesday.
Consider - Aledmys Diaz

 

THIRD BASE

Early Slate

Matt Duffy FD 2800 DK 4300
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 8.86 DK - 7.17

The Giants and Duffy are in a great spot on Wednesday afternoon to score some runs against the Reds in the Great American Ballpark. They matchup against Straily who has come out of the bullpen to start three straight games and hasn't yet made it out of the 6th inning. He has given six earned runs with the biggest issue being walks(4.5 BB/9). Duffy is a contact hitter hitting third for the Giants right in front of Buster Posey. He should be in line for some fantasy production if he can get on base and let the power bats drive him home.

Consider - Kris Bryant

 

Evening Slate

Alex Rodriguez FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.64 DK - 8.85
Chase Headley FD 2100 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 9.25 DK - 7.13

As you are probably starting to notice the projections absolutely love the Yankee hitters(literally all of them) against fill in start Tyler Wilson. His first three appearances came out of the bullpen in long relief where he struck out four in eight innings pitched. Not much has changed since joining the rotation as he has only recorded six strike outs in 11.2 innings pitched. He isn't going to scare the veteran hitters of hitters of the Yankees who are striking out as a team less than 20% vs. right handed pitching. Both players have struggled in the early going but have upside in this matchup and should be considered for GPP formats.

Consider - Carlos Santana

OUTFIELD

Early Slate
Domingo Santana FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.56 DK - 9.74

He has done a fine job in the leadoff spot for the Brewers early in the 2016 season with a .346 wOBA which is over 25 points higher than league average. While he lacks the speed of a prototypical leadoff hitter, he has power(3 HR) and has scored 11 runs while adding 11 RBI. The Brewers have the luxury of throwing eight right handed bats at Santiago on Wednesday with Villar and Walsh being switch hitters. Santiago has struggled against right handers giving up a .304 wOBA against while giving up five long balls and walking eight. He is a safe play in any format on his own and a great addition to a full Brewers stack.
Consider - Mike Trout, Jay Bruce

 

Evening Slate
Carlos Beltran FD 2500 DK 4100
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.16 DK - 9.29
Brett Gardner FD 2900 DK 4600
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.3 DK - 9.96
Jacoby Ellsbury FD 3100 DK 4800
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.6 DK - 10.74

I am not naturally a mean person so don't hold it against me Tyler Wilson fans. The Yankees are the ones that could be hurting your feelings tomorrow. I mean c'mon. He has a strikeout rate lower than five per nine innings and has given up a home run in each of his first two starts while not making into the 6th inning in either game. He pitches to contact and that could be trouble vs. the Yankees outfielders who all hit left handed(Beltran is a switch hitter). Wilson has given up a staggering .338 wOBA to left handed bats this season. Gardner and Ellsbury hit at the top of the lineup and both come with stolen base upside. Beltran normally hits 6th in the lineup and has more power upside than the other two. All make great plays on their own or as a part of a Yankee stack.

 

Adam Jones FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.63 DK - 9.84

This is by far my favorite game to target in the evening slate. The Yankees have all been mentioned but don't forget about the O's here. They face C.C. Sabathia who continues to decline with age seeing his K rate drop to the 6% mark while losing his control(4.64 BB/9). Jones is a player you want to target when he is playing at home as the splits are pretty staggering. Over the past three years at home he is hitting .277 at home vs .240 on the road.
Consider - Giancarlo Stanton, Preston Tucker

 

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