Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/5/16

If having loads of sure-fire starting pitching is your thing, this probably won't be your favorite DFS day. But there are plenty of opportunities for value which should make for a fun day with 11 total games and nine on the main slate.

 

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PITCHER

Jacob deGrom FD 10800 DK 11400
Opponent - SD (Rea) Park - @SD
FD - 44.22 DK - 24.75

Not only is deGrom the best arm on the slate, he's got the added luxury of facing the Padres in a pitcher's paradise. Petco Park wasn't the most inhospitable venue for offense in MLB last season—that title actually belongs to AT&T Stadium in San Francisco. But the San Diego park isn't far off, and the Padres suppress plenty of offense on their own. They rank near bottom of the league in team wOBA and are behind only the Astros in strikeout percentage. deGrom hasn't been whiffing batters quite at last year's rate so far this season, but he has won all three starts and hasn't given up a homer yet. Plus, the underlying numbers suggest the Ks are coming, so we think you can deploy him freely in this matchup. He's the clear top choice for cash games and has plenty of tournament upside as well.

Adam Conley FD 6800 DK 6600
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @MIA
FD - 31.9 DK - 16.01

If you're looking for savings from the pitcher spot in your tournament lineups, give some consideration to Conley, who's off to a nice start this year. He's striking out better than a batter per inning through five starts and is coming off 7.2 innings of no-hit ball at hitter's haven Miller Park. But don't be mistaken, there's a reason he's coming at a discount. The Diamondbacks have fared well against southpaws this year, and Conley has command/control issues from time to time. Nevertheless, the Marlins opened as a -140 favorite, so this isn't a bad spot to chase a win and take a flyer on the chance Conley spins another gem.

 

CATCHER

Brian McCann FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.57 DK - 7.97

Home runs are the magic elixir that can wipe out ho-hum DFS performances in your lineup, and McCann's in a nice spot to supply some power. Camden Yard ranks at the top of MLB (alongside Coors Field and Yankee Stadium) in home run factors for lefties, and McCann remains one of the best power-hitting backstops in the game. Though he has only three home runs on the year, his hard contact rate is actually up a tick, and projection systems are still calling for a ninth consecutive season of at least 20 bombs for the 32-year-old. He'll be facing off with Kevin Gausman, an erstwhile prospect still looking to make good on his potential. He's had a couple of decent starts since coming off the DL in late April, but we're gonna need to see more before we start ducking him.

Russell Martin FD 2200 DK 3400
Opponent - TEX (Holland) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.79 DK - 7.51

If you're OK with punting and praying, Martin's your guy. Odds are you've already been burned by the Toronto catcher a few times this year, but in case you're not familiar with Martin's 2016 woes, take a gander: .157/.231/.171. And that putrid triple-slash is backed up by an astronomical 41 percent K-rate. To be fair, though, Martin has been dealing with a neck injury that has surely impacted his performance. The good news is that he can be had for next to nothing salary-wise and he's hitting in the Rogers Centre, which provides a tremendous boost (provided, of course, he makes contact). It'll also help that Derek Holland isn't a strikeout pitcher and Martin has a nice track record against lefties (.802 career OPS).

FIRST BASE

David Ortiz FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - CHW (Johnson) Park - @CHW
FD - 15.92 DK - 11.9

Our projection system is all over Papi in this one, tagging him as the top option from both a raw points and a value perspective, especially on FanDuel. He'll be facing the recently recalled Erik Johnson, who made six starts with the White Sox last season. His surface numbers in that abbreviated stint look fine, but the peripherals tell a different story. He somehow escaped major carnage, despite a 5.93 FIP and 5.20 xFIP while walking 4.37 batters per nine innings. The stats are even more obscene against lefties (7.30 FIP, 6.64 xFIP while walking more guys than he struck out). Meanwhile, the 40-year-old Ortiz continues to crush right-handed pitching, and while U.S. Cellular Field isn't a great venue in terms of overall park factors, it was the No. 7 spot for home runs last season. We're with the projection system here; play Papi at will.

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3400 DK 3500
Opponent - TEX (Holland) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.25 DK - 9.93

Justin Smoak FD 2500 DK 3200
Opponent - TEX (Holland) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.98 DK - 7.54

Usually in this situation you can count on the cheaper guy to be the lower-owned option, which is always nice in tournaments. It might be a little more complicated for the Toronto first basemen, though. Smoak is actually outperforming Encarnacion through the first month of the season, propped up by a .440 BABIP and a .421 OBP. Those numbers aren't sustainable over the long haul, but he was shifted up to the No. 5 spot Wednesday night, and that's a nice place to be in the Toronto lineup, especially at these prices. Meanwhile, Encarnacion showed signs of life Wednesday night, going 2-for-4 with a homer and 2 RBIs. He's still well off his career marks across the board, but we see no cause for concern yet, and the slow start has depressed his prices significantly, especially on FanDuel. Bottom line: both Blue Jays 1Bs are in play against a low-K guy like Holland in the Rogers Centre.

SECOND BASE

Brandon Phillips FD 2200 DK 3500
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.63 DK - 8.64

So, it turns out Brandon Phillips is still a decent ball player. I'm as surprised as you are, but I'll admit bias based on the fact that the guy never ever ever walks. Maybe that's my bad. He's still not a guy I roll out with confidence in cash games, but the results are quite a bit better than you'd expect for a guy hitting in the middle of the order and priced like a backup. But while Phillips still has a little left in the tank at 34 years old, this recommendation is based more on the fact that he's facing Chase Anderson in the Great American Smallpark. Anderson wasn't terrible last season, but he also wasn't good. This year, however, he's getting bombed. Literally. He's yielding more than two homers per nine innings and is struggling with control, which explains his 5.55 ERA and 5.94 FIP. Those homer numbers should come down, but Cincinnati is one of the two worst places in the league a guy struggling to keep the ball in the yard could draw his next start.

Brett Lawrie FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - BOS (Owens) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.29 DK - 8.02

While Phillips is trying to squeeze another solid season out of his aging bones, Lawrie is looking for a breakout before his prime passes him by. The formerly hyped prospect hasn't become the power/speed phenom many expected, but he's still just 26, and after a decent year in Oakland, he's off to a nice start with the White Sox in 2016. He's going to strike out, but his walk rate is way up, and his power numbers are climbing thanks to a dramatic spike in his fly ball/ground ball ratio. He's also hitting lefties well in limited opportunities this season, building on last year when he posted a .825 OPS in the split. Boston hurler Henry Owens might have a nice future, but he's yet to find a grove against big-league hitters, and we won't be hiding from him until he does.

SHORTSTOP

Jonathan Villar FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.4 DK - 10.21

We're loving the new Villar, who showed signs of coming into his own last season in Houston and has slid in nicely near the top of the Milwaukee lineup. Increased patience at the plate is first place to look for the reason behind the speedster's success in early 2016; he's swinging less and making more contact, and that's lifted his OBP from .267 in 2014 to .339 last season to .378 this year. And it's when he's on base that Villar can do the most damage. He's already swiped eight bags in 2016 and could close in on 40 before the year's done. Hitting in front of Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy, he's also in a nice spot to get pushed across, especially in a hitter's park with a walking casualty like Alfredo Simon on the hill. You might remember Simon's 15 wins in 2014 and assume he's still a decent pitcher. He's not. He got mashed in Detroit last year and has been stunningly terrible in five appearances this season. He's walking 6.75 per 9, and has a 13.50 ERA backed up by a 8.46 FIP and 5.66 xFIP.

Troy Tulowitzki FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - TEX (Holland) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.29

The fact that Tulo and Villar are now coming at identical prices on FanDuel (and Tulo's $1K cheaper on DraftKings) tells you everything you need to know about the way these two guys are trending. Tulowitzki's sub-par performance at the end of 2015 and ugly start this season is disconcerting, but we're choosing to believe injuries haven't completely sapped the former MVP candidate's run-producing potential. At the very least, he's got home run upside, as evidenced by his five bombs this season. We're counting on that, the friendly confines of the Rogers Centre, and an un-intimidating matchup with Derek Holland when we plug him into tournament lineups on Thursday.

THIRD BASE

Adrian Beltre FD 3100 DK 3900
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.71 DK - 8.96

When you see Beltre in this column, you can go ahead bet he's facing a lefty. He's always been a southpaw masher, and that's something age hasn't taken from the one-time slugger. He doesn't have the power potential he held even as recently as three years ago, but he can still do massive damage against lefties. Last season he put up .393 wOBA and .237 ISO in the split, and he's providing similar reliability in 2016. J.A. Happ's mediocrity and the Rogers Center boost only amplify these results. One other thing we love about Beltre: he's adapted to his changing skill set. He's always been a high-contact hitter, but somehow he keeps getting better at putting the ball in play. His K rate has been more or less on a steady decline since 2009, and this season he's struck out just 10 times with 11 walks through 112 plate appearances.

Todd Frazier FD 4100 DK 4300
Opponent - BOS (Owens) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.12 DK - 9.52

Frazier comes with more upside, but you'll have to pay for it, especially on FanDuel, where he'll cost you an extra $1K. That .214 batting average isn't pretty, but a correction is on the way. His .200 BABIP is .84 points off his career pace, so something closer to his usual .250 avg. with 30 or so bombs is still expected. Plus, he still runs on occasion, providing a little boost to his upside, and that's precisely what we're looking for at these prices. As mentioned earlier, the park is a nice spot for homers, and Owens is still figuring out how to work his way through a Major League lineup. Factor in that Frazier has significantly better power numbers against lefties (.240 career ISO), and you've got a strong all-around play.

OUTFIELD

Jose Bautista FD 3700 DK 3900
Opponent - TEX (Holland) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.59 DK - 10.2

Another day in Rogers Centre, another column loaded with Blue Jays picks. Joey Bats is a guy we always love playing because his power gives him top-flight upside, and his selective approach means he's walking more than 100 times per year, which raises his floor. You just don't typically expect a lot of goose eggs from the guy, but like most of the Toronto lineup, he's not quite meeting expectations so far in 2016. We think the production is coming, but even with a .222 batting average, he's still supplying a .828 OPS and a .242 ISO, and slow start to the season means the price is relatively low. We're going to keep rolling him out there at home against league average lefties, and we suggest you do the same.

Adam Duvall FD 2800 DK 3500
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.98 DK - 9.14

Tournament special here, because Duvall will strike out a ton, but also comes with significant pop for a guy at these prices. He'll also slide up a bit in the order sometimes against lefties, which boosts his value, and he's often overlooked, which we always like in large fields. A little more about Duvall in case you're not familiar: He was a slugger in the Giants minor league system before coming to the Reds last season. In 151 MLB plate appearances since then, he's hit nine bombs, so the power is legit. And then there's the Great American Ballpark and the Chase Anderson quotient. No doubt, we're looking for a dinger with this pick, but we think it's a nice place to look.

Carlos Beltran FD 2500 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.94 DK - 8.36

The 39-year-old is aging a little less than gracefully, but you can still pick and choose your moments when he's priced like this. Exhibit A: Wednesday night, when a simple 1-for-5 night still yielded 12.7 points on FanDuel, which you can win with when the salary is that of a part-timer. Beltran is more of a tournament play for me, because he's seemingly decided he's done with taking pitches (1.8 percent walk rate vs. RHP this year), but he's still got decent pop from the left side, and as we talked about with McCann, that could come into play at Camden Yard.

Ryan Rua FD 2300 DK 2600
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.17 DK - 6.99

If Duvall doesn't quite fit in your lineups, we present Ryan Rua, who is basically a poor man's Adam Duvall. The profiles are similar: K rate north of 30 percent but nice home run upside at a discount. We're hoping Rua will slide up a bit in the order with a lefty on the hill, but even if he's buried in the bottom third, he makes an interesting tournament play, because his ownership rate should be low. In limited work as a big leaguer, Rua has shown a heavy preference for southpaws with a .490 slugging percentage in 102 plate appearances, and he should have a chance to get the better of Happ.

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