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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

05/05/2016
Nick Rodriguez

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitcher Breakdown FanDuel and DraftKings- 5/5/16

Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article and our updates articles but here we will look at other dudes to consider.

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Stacking in DFS MLB is such an important concept if you’re looking to take down a big tournament on FanDuel or DraftKings. It’s also a good way to diversify cash games because the variance in baseball can mean wild swings (ahem) in the scoring on a particular slate. The concept is easy. You want to pile players from one or two teams into your lineups because those guys compound scores by helping each other score runs when the going is good.

Early Slate Pitching Target

Jaime GarciaJaime Garcia FD 8400 DK 9700
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @STL
FD - 33.8 DK - 17.63
This is a small two-game slate, so I recommend not trying to get cute and just go with the best pitcher on the slate -- Jaime Garcia. He will be going up against the Phillies, who have struggled against left-handed pitching this year. They own a .251 wOBA (29th in MLB) and 49 wRC+ (29th in MLB), which shows their inabilities to get anything going on offense, when a southpaw is on the mound. How bad is 49 wRC+ and .251 wOBA you may ask... The league average for wRC+ is at 100 (Phillies are all the way at 49) and the league average for wOBA is .316 (Phillies are all the way at .251)! Hope that comparison helps a bit.

Not only do they struggle creating runs, but they also have trouble putting the ball in play. They have a whooping 29.5 K% (highest in MLB) against left-handed pitching. The next worst K% is at 26.3% (Padres). That is a big difference if you ask me. Jaime has a 20.9 K% since 2014, but don't be surprised if he reaches double-digit strikeout numbers today! He is a no-brainier!
DFSR 705x90

Main Slate Pitching Targets

Jacob deGromJacob deGrom FD 10800 DK 11400
Opponent - SD (Rea) Park - @SD
FD - 44.22 DK - 24.75
Not sure how this happened -- but when I went to join a 50/50 contest, my lineup already had deGrom as my pitcher... Did this happen to anyone else? It caught me by surprise, but what can I say -- he's the top play of the main slate!

The deGrom-inator will be going up against the Padres! What more do I have to say?

Alright no more messing around, lets get serious -- I now got my game-face on, so lets talk baseball. deGrom will be facing a Padres team that has had a hard time getting anything going offensively, especially against right-handed pitching. They own a 26.0 K% (third highest in MLB), .120 ISO (29th in MLB) and .270 wOBA (3Oth in MLB). The matchup is a thing of beauty for the deGrom-inator and we all know how good this kid is! He owns a 26.2 K% (highest on the slate), which shows us the upside that he has. He also has a 20.1 K-BB% and 3.10 SIERA. He is the best pitcher on the slate and also has the best matchup.
Masahiro TanakaMasahiro Tanaka FD 9400 DK 9300
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 29.59 DK - 15.83
There is no other pitcher I love (outside of deGrom), so I will just go with the next talented arm from the bunch and that is -- Masahiro Tanaka. He will be going up against the Orioles, which isn't the prettiest of matchups, but I believe he is the top pitcher for tournaments. First off, he owns a 24.2 K% in his career (2nd highest on the slate). He does have upside and will be going up against an Orioles squad that has a 21.6 K% against right-handed pitching. Also, this Yankees-Orioles game has an over/under at 7.5 runs. This is the second-lowest game total on the night (Mets-Padres has a 6.5 run total). There is no "safe option" outside of deGrom, but Tanaka does have upside, which is great for tournaments. As long as he can keep the ball out of the bleachers, he should be able to deliver a quality start.
Kyle HendricksKyle Hendricks FD 7200 DK 8000
Opponent - WSH (Ross) Park - @CHC
FD - 30.53 DK - 15.93
I would not use Hendricks on FanDuel, but I would use him as a pitcher No.2 on DraftKings. He will be going up against the Nationals, who have one of the best players in baseball (Bryce Harper) -- but I still believe Hendricks will deliver a quality start. Outside of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, the Nationals struggle against right-handed pitching. They own a .297 wOBA (22nd in MLB) and 79 wRC+ (26th in MLB).
Hendricks might not have that big upside you look for in a pitcher with a 20.2 K%, but he has a nice price tag and one of the better matchups on the slate. One thing Hendricks does do well is limit damage. He owns a 50.9 GB% and 5.3 BB%. He doesn't give up a ton of free bases and does a solid job keeping the ball on the ground. The wind looks like it will be blowing in (9mph in from left-center) , so this should help Hendricks out as well. With not many appealing options on the slate, I believe Hendricks is the top guy to pair up with deGrom, if you are looking for a SP2 in cash games.

 

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