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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

05/06/2016
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/6/16 Playoffs

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

Analysis
Well okay. Think Cleveland likes the unit they've been deploying to handle the Hawks? Game two was over before the end of the first quarter and was a laugher by halftime. Now it should be known that Cleveland will not shoot like this from three again. They were above 60% for the game and that is just lights out territory. It won't be repeated and rest assured you won't see J.R. Smith turning on his inner Curry with that kind of shooting night again. But, we knew the Cavs liked what they had in playing Thompson at the five and the mismatches it would create everywhere else. They exploited it and will keep going back to what works.

Again, I'm really not faulting the Hawks too much for what transpired in the second game. Sure they are outmatched in this series, but if a team is basically going just make every three then there's nothing anyone can do. Game three will be closer for sure.

Top Plays
Last game was such a blowout that it really didn't change my mind about any of the value plays coming out of this series. I'm just running back the picks from last time around because I think every piece of his holds true.
LeBron JamesLeBron James - FD 10600 DK 11000
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 53.51 DK Proj. Pts - 55.67
Kevin LoveKevin Love - FD 7600 DK 8100
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 39.82 DK Proj. Pts - 42.68
Tristan ThompsonTristan Thompson - FD 4800 DK 4800
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 28.24 DK Proj. Pts - 28.85
J.R. SmithJ.R. Smith - FD 4700 DK 5300
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.5 DK Proj. Pts - 27.7
This analysis is from our last article and it still holds true. Sure this seems like a massive cop out. I'm just recommending the whole Cavs team right? Well yes, yes I am. But the kind of minutes safety you are looking at with these four guys is really about as good as it gets on a two game slate and they are priced with flexibility all around. On FanDuel I'd probably run all four without hesitation. You just have such a fantastic floor if the Cavs are committed to this being their lineup in the series. And there's no reason to doubt, short of a blowout, that it will happen. The only guy I left off is Kyrie because you can't start all five and he is the one who gets rotated on the odd-man out scheme. There is also other PG value out there so I think he's fine to avoid.

Paul MillsapPaul Millsap - FD 8900 DK 8600
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 44.34 DK Proj. Pts - 46.04
He's definitely behind Love and LMA for me in terms of pts/$ on this three game slate. But still worth a look especially if you think folks will be off of him after a rough last game. Millsap can still fill it up especially if the Hawks can hang in this game because he'll see minutes around 40 if that's the case.

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

Analysis
A wild game two ended with a Dion Waiters push off, Spurs steal and a wild scramble that ultimately left the Thunder as one point victors. It was a huge game for OKC to steal considering they'd been just crushed in the first game and the Spurs were basically impossible to beat at home this season. Really, it's amazing OKC won the game and it gives the series some serious life.

Heading into OKC for game three Vegas as the Spurs as two point favorites and I obviously still think they are the big favorites to advance to the Western Conference Finals. But it is at least making things interesting and you can bet OKC come out hard-charging in this one now that they know it's not going to be a landslide.

Top Plays
Russell WestbrookRussell Westbrook - FD 10900 DK 10800
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 54.71 DK Proj. Pts - 56.59
I'm leaving Durant out of the value plays piece for OKC because even though he's seeing the minutes, Kawhi is making things so tough on him that it's hard to justify paying all the way up for his salary. Westbrook on the other hand appears worth every penny. A 29/10/7 line in the second game is just more of the same from the guy and San Antonio doesn't have a fantastic answer for him on an individual defensive level. Very much worth the price tag.

LaMarcus AldridgeLaMarcus Aldridge - FD 8600 DK 8700
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 44.56 DK Proj. Pts - 45.41
Wow. Wow. This guy was unstoppable in game two, putting up the line of the night at 41/8/3. Everything was falling for LMA who went 15-21 from the field and the Spurs consistently got him in the pick and roll. He had what he wanted the whole time and the minutes were about his highest of the season. Expect it to continue as the Spurs know they have mismatches with him.

Danny GreenDanny Green - FD 4100 DK 4000
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 24.52 DK Proj. Pts - 28.16
I know, I know. Everyone hates rostering this guy in DFS. And I get why. He can simply disappear from the fray for long (almost full game) stretches. He's a price play and nothing more. The Spurs run him enough because he can guard multiple positions and he actually did get up double digit shot attempts last game.

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65 Visitor Comments

  1. andre_504 05/06/2016

    Nice article but why do the projections stay the same within each article and the NBA lineup tool table? Also the write up for Millsap does not apply for today’s slates… Does this narrative change? Thanks.

  3. Michael Makdad 05/06/2016

    Wheres your email posted Danny?

  5. TheWalrus82 05/06/2016

    Here is your premier FantasyAces lineup for tonight’s 2 game slate:

    G K.Irving 35.13 5,600.00
    G T.Parker 21.05 4,400.00
    G J.Smith 20.94 4,300.00
    F K.Leonard 40.42 6,200.00
    F P.Millsap 39.11 6,100.00
    F L.Aldridge 36.18 5,900.00
    C T.Thompson 21.33 4,500.00
    Util K.Korver 17.51 4,150.00
    Util S.Adams 21.98 3,800.00

    As always please support those that support you and if you’re new to FantasyAces sign up using this link:

    http://fantasyaces.com/r/TheWalrus82/

  6. Michael Makdad 05/06/2016

    hope it cashes Walrus, down to pennies since i bet the farm a couple nights ago lol

  7. TheWalrus82 05/06/2016

    Tons of minutes got buzzed on Wednesday with the blowout and Schroeder barely saw the floor. The system still likes Schroeder but prefers Parker at a similar price (plus…his minutes are secure). Korver is in a much better spot at home and will get 30 minutes so long as they don’t mail it in like they did in game 2. Good luck tonight!

  8. Lloyd Vaughan 05/06/2016

    After last night, I still have D Green, Westy, Love and Schroder coming up tonight. Sitting at 146 FPS on DK in a 5K arcade. Val, Carroll and DeRozan really came through last night.

    • Rebubula 05/06/2016

      Hey Lloyd Im feeling pretty good in FD Tourney with Teauge, Smith, Green, James, Love, Aldridge going tonight sitting at 108 thx to Val, Carroll, Lowry. But I’ve been here before lol. Good luck!

  9. JoSlicknuts 05/06/2016

    @Lloyd….Doesn’t look like a winner. Did you have a few guys blow duds last night?

    • The Kman 05/06/2016

      I see him getting 130 from that group listed. He’s missing a player though, only 7 mentioned. 276 total puts him on the fringe payout. Who’s the 8th player Lloyd?

      • Lloyd Vaughan 05/06/2016

        Sorry, it was Joe Johnson. Just hope we see the ‘other’ Schroder tonight.

    • Lloyd Vaughan 05/06/2016

      Those 4 players from that roster averaged 36.6 FPS. I wouldn’t say it looks too bad.

  10. Joseph Walbe 05/06/2016

    Schroder or Korver tonight on the 2 game slate for DK?
    Plenty of $$ to be won tonight with the split slate from last night and a nice nest of FPS to build on!!

  11. Reid 05/06/2016

    Careful with Korver. Lue is on record saying they want to take him out of the series because he is an integral part of their offense. Take out Korver and everything else suffers. Zach Lowe wrote an article last year on the effect Korver has on the Atlanta offense, you can read it for the details here: http://grantland.com/features/kyle-korver-nba-atlanta-hawks/. And this fact is not lost on Lue and the Cavs. JR has been straight up face guarding him off the ball, trying to make sure he doesn’t even touch the thing. I think the odds of Korver having a plus game for your fantasy team are pretty slim.

  12. Zac Kelly 05/06/2016

    Still really struggling with cash game lineups for these playoffs? Anybody have FD lineups or can help me on how to make them?

  13. Alex 05/06/2016

    Hello, heres my fanduel cash game lineup

    Westbrook
    Parker
    Jr
    Danny g
    Lebron
    Bazemore
    Aldridge
    Ibaka
    Thompson

    Im feeling pretty confident. Thoughts?

  14. Alex 05/06/2016

    @ Zac i’ve been solid these playoffs with cash game lineups, my strategy is to usually get the players I think will be most owned and are most consistent, so that if they have a monster game i don’t get burned, and if they lay an egg it doesn’t burn me because the majority rosters them.

  15. Alex 05/06/2016

    I am not sold on korver at all and I highly recommend fading him, take Danny green or Ginobli if you dont already have Smith. If Korver’s shot isnt falling he puts up a dud. Ginobli contributes all across the sheet even in way less minutes.

    I also recommend fading schoder unless your playing a gpp, he is too erratic and his minutes are not secure.

  16. David allen basye 05/06/2016

    Any points you get from San Antonio, are going to be from their string forward play, not much upside to taking two guards from from them.. Just my opinion

  17. David allen basye 05/06/2016

    Teauge/Irving
    Green/Jr
    Baz/leanord
    Millsap/aldrige
    Thompson
    Think that’s more solid, especially if Cleveland steam rolls Atlanta again, lebron will only play up to the third quarter

  18. delonta cooper 05/06/2016

    Who do you guys like better tonight? Schroder or Parker?

  19. bartgregg5455 05/06/2016

    So do you guys think German Chocolate(schroder) goes off again, or does Jeff Teague finally start acting like a starting point guard

  21. ben knapple 05/06/2016

    129 with ginobli green james aldridge and ibaka left should be a solid cash for last nights start. Ginobli has to come up huge for any kind of real money

  22. Michael Makdad 05/06/2016

    Who’s got your eye at SG tonight Ben?

  24. Kenneth Jones 05/06/2016

    Sleeper. Tim Hardaway jr tonight

  25. Andrew Jemmott 05/06/2016

    For those wondering about Schroder…he’s a lock for me. He’ll be underpicked prob 10-15%, and for $4300 he has huge upside at that price. You’re about as safe picking him as you are Parker IMO, it ‘s a dice roll, so might as well go with low % pick and swing for the fences!

  26. Rebubula 05/06/2016

    Any opinions Sefolosha or Scott for FD tourney punt?

  27. C Ed 05/06/2016

    do y’all wanna see another DK winning lineup??
    I been on a roll lately

  28. Jared W Campbell 05/06/2016

    if anyone has a DK Lineup they don’t mind sharing would be awesome did okay last night, but I am not trusting my optimizer today for some reason

  31. David basye 05/06/2016

    I have 169 already going into tonight, and have West, jr, ibaka, and aldrige left, I’m going to kill it!

  32. Shakeeb S 05/06/2016

    David I assume we have the exact same lineup then! Here’s to JR and Ibaka having another good night 😉

  33. TheGreatCornholio 05/06/2016

    If the Cavs’ game plan is to destroy the hawks with 3-pointers and given the hawks size. Would anyone consider channing Frye at basically bare minimum price? Its risky I know, but even Richard Jefferson is getting on the court against the Hawks bigs.
    Thank you

    • Rebubula 05/06/2016

      I stacked the 2nd game with Frye as my odd man in for one FD tourney

  35. David allen basye 05/06/2016

    For base minimal tonight in one of my lineups, I inserted Humphries, just fit the hell of it, they talkk about giving him more court time after his production the other night

  36. Rebubula 05/06/2016

    David, funny you should bring up Humphries. Did anyone on this site have him Wednesday night??? All the big FD tourney winners did. It could only be the Sharks right? I mean who could predict his minutes.

    • JM 05/06/2016

      @ Rebubula

      I did play him based on a Rotoworld blip I read suggesting “Humphries is going to play a big role in the Cavs series.” So I rolled out a couple of lineups with him in games 1 & 2. I don’t think Budenholzer was really planning on what hppened in game 2, but it worked out for me. Note: I do play between 50 and 100 lineups a night. Were I playing a handful, I seriously doubt I would’ve gotten that lucky.

  38. Bob Thompson 05/06/2016

    Had a lineup with Terrence Ross the other night just for the hell of it changed it last second. Would have won at least 10k on draftkings

  40. Travis blakeman 05/06/2016

    I honestly don’t think will repeat. I had enough to take him leftover in a couple lineups but went with Thompson instead.

  42. Rebubula 05/06/2016

    FD tourney lineup

    Westbrook
    Schroder
    Ginobili
    Smith
    James
    Sefolosha
    Millsap
    Aldridge
    Thompson

  43. Travis blakeman 05/06/2016

    Milsap/Irving. The Hawks are going to come out with something to prove since they got embarrassed last game. I look for Milsap to go for 50.

  45. Andrew Jemmott 05/06/2016

    Ashley
    Schroder
    Green
    James
    Thompson
    Kanter
    Mills
    Durant
    Milsap

  46. C Ed 05/06/2016

    Here y’all go. My DK GPP lineup:
    Teague
    Manu
    Lebron
    Millsap
    Adams
    Green
    Bazemore
    JR

  48. Travis blakeman 05/06/2016

    I know. Sefolosha has messed up my lineups and the hasn’t even started. Smh

  50. Cody Sparks 05/06/2016

    I still don’t get everyone’s love (including the optimizer) for Schroder. He has basically no outside shot, panics in big moments/games, and his coach knows that so he gets minimal minutes!! SMH!! Crazy he keeps getting fantasy respect.

  51. TheGreatCornholio 05/06/2016

    I CALLED CHANNING FRYE FOR TONIGHT’S GAME……..HE IS GOING OFF HAHAHAH

    • Andrew Jemmott 05/07/2016

      Epic call out – who’s the Frye for tomorrow?

  57. ashley0919 05/09/2016

    No more articles?? No more help or info?? I guess u guys have to keep your sleepers to yourself, I feel yall fr! Lol

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