Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/7/16

 

Welcome to Saturday baseball! We had a bunch of aces on the mound yesterday and today is no different. With a ton of aces on the mound, we are going to need to find some cheap bats and be picky with our expensive ones. Make sure to check out our other 3 articles as they touch on weather news, stacks and some more pitching options. Let's get to the top plays at each position!

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PITCHER

Early Slate

David Price FD 9900 DK 10800
Opponent - NYY (Eovaldi) Park - @NYY
FD - 34.85 DK - 19.14

First of all, Let's just touch on Clayton Kershaw. While I would love to play him, the price and match up are not letting it happen. The Blue Jays are the best team in the league against lefties and the Rogers Centre is a very tough ballpark to pitch in. However, he is always a fantastic tournament play due to his upside. David Price on the other hand, is a little under priced and has a good match up with the Yankees. The Yankees run out a predominantly left handed lineup with the top bats being left handed. Ellsbury (Questionable), Gardner, McCann and Gregorius are all lefty and struggle mightily against southpaws. Over the previous 3 seasons, Price has dominated lefties with a .275 wOBA and 3.22 xFIP. While this ballpark is certainly a hitters one, it is rather neutral for left handed pitchers. The Yankees have been horrible against left handed pitching as they are ranked 21st in wOBA and wRC+ thus far. Price is a great cash game and GPP play as long as the weather holds out.

Johnny Cueto FD 10700 DK 9900
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @SF
FD - 36.86 DK - 19.82

Cueto is a guy I don't often roster due to his high volatility and low floor. However, this match up presents a completely different situation. The Colorado Rockies are a team I love to target pitchers against on the road due to their league worst .290 wOBA in 2015. While these Rockies hitters have great numbers this year, they are severely inflated due to the Coors Field effect. Johnny Cueto has dominated both lefties and righties with a combined .268 wOBA over the past 3 seasons. The Rockies also have a bottom 10 7% BB rate which lowers the risk of Cueto having a blow up inning that ruins the whole start. Cueto is more of a GPP pitcher for me here with David Price on the mound, however, I wouldn't fault you for using him in cash games.

Late Slate
Chris Sale FD 12000 DK 12900
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @CHW
FD - 40.59 DK - 22.8
He's the biggest moneyline favorite on the late slate by a large margin. At -200 really the only question worth answering is if we want to pay up for the guy. There is some reason for concern here. The K numbers have dropped a ton this season and the 1.66 ERA is much better than the 3.58 xFIP. The Twins K a ton against lefties which could help Sale in this one. Where I'm very hesitant on Sale is he's seen a slight dip in velocity on the four seam fastball this season. That could point to an underlying issue. He's at the top of the list because of the money line odds and his general pitcher makeup, but he's far from a lock.

Bartolo Colon FD 8100 DK 7300
Opponent - SD (Shields) Park - @SD
FD - 34.64 DK - 18.31

The late slate pitching options are pretty rough. Keuchel and Sale are the highest priced options and while they are both great pitchers, they are facing good offenses in hitter friendly stadiums. Both are great options in tournaments purely due to their high strikeout upside. However, Bartolo Colon is going to be the guy I turn to in both cash games and a majority of my tournaments. Colon has been very consistent to start the year with all 5 of his starts being deemed "quality". Colon has held a .283 xFIP, 10% HR/FB rate and a 30% hard contact rate. This tells me Colon is forcing hitters to hit weak balls and when they do hit it hard, they are hitting high flyballs and grounders. This game will be played in Petco Park which only adds on to the multiple factors in favor of Colon. As we all know, the Padres are a horrible team as evidenced by their league worst wOBA against righties and one we will be targeting all season long. Tonight is certainly no exception.

Julio Teheran FD 7700 DK 8500
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ATL
FD - 33.85 DK - 17.86

Yes, this one makes me very nervous. Teheran has proven just how good he is against righties and the polar opposite against lefties. However, how many lefties do we really have to worry about here? 2? MAYBE 3? Those 3 are David Peralta, Jacob Lamb and Chris Hermann. While the first 2 certainly worry me, they will be surrounded by righties. In 2015, Teheran sported a .255 wOBA against right handers and carried that over with a .225 this season. The big bats in this lineup are right handed and Teheran's dominant slider and changeup will cause them fits at the plate. However, Teheran is strictly a tournament play for me due to his high blow up risk.

CATCHER

Early Slate

Salvador Perez FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - CLE (Anderson) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.68 DK - 8.38
Catcher on the early slate of games is a rough shout. Perez comes into the game struggling some for the plate this season with an increased K% though thankfully his walk rate has picked up some. There is some pop in his bat and he was much better against righties last season so we don't have to worry as much about the reverse platoon effects. A bit pricey on DK, but well within the range on FD to throw out there in cash games.

Late Slate

A.J. Pierzynski FD 2300 DK 2900
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.04 DK - 7.95

While I very rarely target these Atlanta Braves bats, I am all over them today. Shelby Miller has begun regressing as we predicted. In his first 6 starts, he has pitched 23 innings, given up 22 runs, walked 19 and struck out 19. Miller is a horrible pitcher who got lucky last season with BABIP and HR/FB rate. The numbers are finally evening themselves out and if you haven't jumped on the target Miller bandwagon, there is still room. These Braves are going to be very under owned tonight and wrongfully so. While they are a horrible team altogether, they have some bats that can hit righties well. Pierzynski is one of those guys as he hit righties to a .343 wOBA clip in 2015. The Braves are going to put some runs up and Pierzynski will likely be hitting 4th.

Consider - Evan Gattis

 

FIRST BASE

Early Slate

Prince Fielder FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 16.03 DK - 12.21

It is weekly Mike Pelfrey day and you know what that means. Pelfrey has been absolutely atrocious to start the year and he is somehow still over-performing his peripheral stats. Pelfrey has given up 16 earned runs in 5 starts and has figured out a way to walk more batters than he has struck out. The Rangers are easily my favorite offense of the early slate and Fielder is the 1st of many. Fielder has hit ighties extremely well throughout his career as evidenced by his .400 wOBA and 38.4% hard hit rate. While the ballpark downgrade certainly does hurt, Pelfrey alone turns any ballpark into Coors Field. How is this guy still in the league with the Tigers having a few good pitching prospects? My guess is as good as yours.

Adrian Gonzalez FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.84 DK - 11.31

Adrian Gonzalez and the Dodgers will be taking on the Knuckle-baller R.A. Dickey today in the Rogers Centre. Dickey has fallen off and been horrible to start the year. I don't think this is just him going through a slump. He is 41 years old and has been in and out of the minor leagues since 2001. Dickey just doesn't have it anymore and is going to continue to get hit around. Adrian Gonzalez is going to be hitting in the 3 hole here and is receiving a huge park bump from Dodgers Stadium to the Rogers Centre. Gonzalez is a fantastic hitter against righties as evidenced by his .379 wOBA. GONZO is a great play in all formats, however, I do prefer Prince.

Late Slate

Freddie Freeman FD 3100 DK 3900
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ATL
FD - 14.1 DK - 10.84

Freddie Freeman is going to be our next and best Atlanta Braves bat. Freeman is the only great hitter in this lineup and is the guy that gives them the chance to have a huge game. Freeman has dominated righties since entering the league with a .379 wOBA, 38.6% hard contact rate and a 142 wRC+. As mentioned above, Shelby Miller is a far below average pitcher and a guy that really struggled against lefties. Freeman is the beating heart to my favorite late slate stack. He is viable in every format and is my favorite overall hitter on the slate.

Consider - Justin Bour, Ryan Howard

 

SECOND BASE

Early Slate

Rougned Odor FD 3700 DK 3900
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 15.37 DK - 12.5

Sooooo.... you are going to see lots of Rangers, Braves and Dodgers. I am sorry, blame Mike Pelfrey, Shelby Miller and R.A Dickey, not me! Odor will likely be leading off this game for the Rangers and will get 5 at-bats by the end of the game, maybe more. Mike Pelfrey is a low-ball pitcher and Odor is a guy with an uppercut swing that cuts directly through the bottom of the zone. This match up is one made in heaven and there is no reason to not attack it. To add on, Pelfrey is bad at holding runners which gives Odor power and speed upside.

Chase Utley FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.91 DK - 10.11

Chase Utley has been very good for the Dodgers to start the year and has been a very productive leadoff hitter. Utley has sported a .408 wOBA and a .437 OBP, exactly what you are looking for in a leadoff hitter. As mentioned above, Dickey and his "knuckleball" have been pitiful and there is no reason to think the Dodgers are the team he turns it around against. While Utley may not have the same power and speed he used to possess, he is still a guy that will get on base and get driven in by the bats behind him. I am comfortable with Utley in any format but do prefer him in cash games and Dodgers stacks.

Late Slate

Logan Forsythe FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @LAA
FD - 11.86 DK - 9.42

Logan Forsythe and the Rays are facing off with Jered Weaver tonight in a game that they are projected to win. Weaver is another guy that is completely worn out and just about retired. Weaver is somehow only giving up 5 runs per game with an 84 MPH flat fastball and a 73 MPH changeup, while sporting a cutter that sits around 68. Forsythe has hit righties well with a 112 wRC+ and 36% hard contact rate over the past 3 seasons. Weaver has even splits at this point in his career due to his slider not moving an inch. Forsythe is going to have some pitches to hit in this one and will likely be hitting with guys on base. This Angels bullpen is not going to come in and dominate either as they are ranked in the bottom 10 of the league against righties. Forsythe is an elite play in all formats as this position is not great and he is not power reliant.

Consider - Derek Dietrich

 

SHORTSTOP

Early Slate

Corey Seager FD 3700 DK 3900
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.88 DK - 10.9

Another Dodger? yep. Corey Seager entered into this year as MLB's number 1 prospect and has not disappointed. Seager has hit righties well with a .310 wOBA and an impressive 36.5% hard contact rate. While Seager has not been fantastic, his peripherals suggest improvement and he profiles well against R.A. Dickey. When a player doesn't have any history against the knuckleball, I look for "pure" hitters. When I say pure, I am looking for a guy that has a level swing and hits the ball hard. Seager does just that and will be getting a huge ballpark bump from Dodgers Stadium to the Rogers Centre. Do I need to tell you how bad R.A Dickey is again? No? Ok.

Consider - Francisco Lindor

Late Slate

Brad Miller FD 2200 DK 3100
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @LAA
FD - 12.04 DK - 9.79

Brad Miller is finally hitting the ball well with 2 home runs over the past 10 games. As mentioned above, Weaver is a bad pitcher and struggles against both righties and lefties. Over the past 3 seasons, Miller has hit righties well with a .327 wOBA and an above average 33% hard contact rate. While he is not a superstar hitter, he drives the ball consistently and hits offspeed itches very well. Every pitcher Jered Weaver throws is "offspeed". Miller is at a cheap enough price point where I am comfortable with him in both cash games and tournaments. However, with the lack of options at the shortstop position he is my number 1 option in both.

Consider - Carlos Correa

 

THIRD BASE

Early Slate

Justin Turner FD 2600 DK 3200
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.56 DK - 9.82

While every Dodgers bat mentioned has been a lefty so far, here is our first righty. Justin Turner has hit righties extremely well over the course of his career as evidenced by his .390 wOBA, 34% hard contact rate and 36.2% FB rate. A lot of casual DFS players will look at the righty on righty match up and just assume it is a negative one. That is exactly where a lot of edge is and is something we should definitely be taking advantage of. The knuckleball is not any better against righties than it is lefties and I am expecting a big game out of Turner here. Turner is my number 1 option in both cash games and tournaments at the third base position.

Consider - Adrian Beltre

Late Slate

Maikel Franco FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @MIA
FD - 12.46 DK - 9.78

Maikel Franco exploded last night with a double, home run and 2 RBI's. He will be facing off with Tom Koehler today in where the Phillies are projected to score 4.12 runs. Tom Koehler has sported a .332 wOBA against righties over the course of his career with a 4.40 xFIP and 33.5% hard contact rate. Franco has huge power and while this isn't a great hitters ballpark, Franco can get it out of anywhere. Franco was actually better against righties last year as evidenced by his .360 wOBA and a 38% hard contact rate. Franco is a great play in all formats as he is not power reliant.

Kelly Johnson FD 2200 DK 2700
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.5

I truthfully never thought I would ever be recommending Kelly Johnson in an article. Thanks Shelby Miller, I appreciate it. While Johnson is far from an appealing name to click on, he has hit righties well over the last few seasons with a .326 wOBA and 33% hard contact rate. As mentioned above, Shelby Miller is a pitcher that is due for some serious regression and it has already begun. Johnson is a great option in tournaments as he will be extremely low owned and provides plenty of upside.

 

OUTFIELD

Early Slate

Lorenzo Cain FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - CLE (Anderson) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.36 DK - 9.67

The fact that it took this long to pick on Cody Anderson just proves how bad some of these pitchers are today. Anderson is not a good pitcher in any fashion and has struggled keeping the ball in play over the past 2 seasons. In 111 innings, Anderson has given up 15 home runs and 48 earned runs. In 2015, Lorenzo Cain hit righties to a .338 wOBA clip and a 30% hard contact rate. While this park is certainly not great for hitters, it is a lot better than Kaufmann Stadium in Kansas City. Lorenzo Cain will be a ton under owned and has as much upside as anyone.

Mitch Moreland FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 13.72 DK - 10.5

Mitch Moreland is the final Texas Rangers bat mentioned here today and he is one of my favorite overall plays of the day. As mentioned 47 times above, Mike Pelfrey is the worst pitcher on the early slate and someone you need to be targeting. While Moreland is not a great pure hitter, he has as much power as anyone and is in a perfect spot to show it off. Moreland has hit righties very well over the course of his career with a .372 wOBA and 37% hard contact rate. Moreland is a great tournament play and I couldn't fault you for using him in cash games.

Late Slate

Corey Dickerson FD 2500 DK 3300
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @LAA
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.56

Dickerson is my pick for home run of the night and it is not too close. Dickerson destroys right handed pitching as evidenced by his .398 wOBA and an insanely high 42% hard contact rate. As mentioned a few times, Weaver is atrocious against lefties and has given up a home run in nearly every start since dating back to last season. The Rays are in an amazing spot here and are great plays in both cash games and tournaments.

Billy Hamilton FD 2500 DK 3500
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.94 DK - 9.82
Jay Bruce FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.92 DK - 9.22

Jay Bruce and Billy Hamilton are polar opposite outfielders, however, they are both good against righties. Jimmy Nelson is an average pitcher that has a lot of problems with two things and those are holding runners and keeping the ball in play. Hamilton will likely be hitting 1st or 2nd and will be in line for some stolen bases. Jay Bruce on the other hand, will be hitting 5th and is going to get some pitches to hit. The Great American Ballpark is a terrific one for hitters and I don't see a scenario where Bruce doesn't get a hold of one tonight. While he may not get it over the fence, there is a good shot.

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