Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/8/16 Playoffs

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

Analysis
Are the Cavs the least respected great team in recent memory? After rolling the Pistons in round 1 they're dusting off their Nimbus Two Thousands in the fourth game of round 2. Didn't expect to see a Harry Potter joke in a daily fantasy basketball article? Tough. I'm reading them to my kids each night, and I've got Hogwarts on the brain.

So what did we learn from game 3? Well, more than I would have expected. We saw a roster flexibility that neither team had showed up til this point - Channing Frye led the Cavs in scoring, Kevin Love lost 10 minutes in spite of grabbing 15 boards in 29 minutes, and Tristan Thompson disappeared. On the Hawks side, Al Horford saw his minutes go drainward (the chess piece that caused the Cavs to go small and ultimately win), Teague is back in the picture, and Thabo got big minutes as the de-facto guy who's best suited to cover LeBron. What does this mean for this slate? Let's do it.

Top Plays
The Cavs' starters
We have some tiers working here, since there are a lot of assumptions at play.

LeBron James - FD 10800 DK 11100
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 53.51 DK Proj. Pts - 55.67
By a mile. The more things change for the Cavs from game to game, the more they stay the same for James. After a 50+ fantasy performance in game 3, he's going to be out there cracking skulls again in game 4. The Hawks are throwing the kitchen sink at him and it's making no difference. I'm doubling down here for sure.

Kyrie Irving - FD 7900 DK 8300
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 38.59 DK Proj. Pts - 40.75
J.R. Smith - FD 5100 DK 5400
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 23.17 DK Proj. Pts - 26.2
If you're looking for safety, these are the next two that clock in for me for one reason - opportunity. While the Cavs seem willing to shuffle their big men around, their back-up guard play is so bad that these two are going to log 36-40 minutes each here. Smith is a bigger risk than Irving because A) he doesn't have the ball in his has as much and B) he has a more capable backup than Irving, but I'm still trusting him here. Shumpert screws up the Cavs' spacing too much, and the Hawks would be delighted to play off him and force the Cavs to play 4 on 5 on the offensive end. Smith and Frye are the main non-star shooters, and given that the Frye cat is out of the bag, I think they return to Smith in a big way here.

Tristan Thompson - FD 4800 DK 5100
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 23.78 DK Proj. Pts - 24.29
Kevin Love - FD 7800 DK 8200
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 36.67 DK Proj. Pts - 39.31
Love was quietly awesome in game 3, but those minutes have to worry you just a little bit. Still, I think the Cavs zig back Love's way in game 4, and he actually has quite a big of upside if he hits the upper end of his minutes. Be careful, though, because if he starts to look like a chalk play based on what you're hearing elsewhere he might just be an easy fade. He ran hot to put up 40 fantasy points in 29 minutes in game 3, and we can't count on a repeat performance there.

As for Thompson, it's a strictly upside play if the Hawks decide to re-pivot and go big again. He could get smoked in this game if Horford doesn't see the court, or play 40 minutes as a cover-center. Anyone's guess - but yeah, tournament play only.

The flailing Hawks
If you play a bunch of Hawks today, you might be in for a world of pain. That said, there's definitely safety and upside to be had, here.

Paul Millsap - FD 8500 DK 8500
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 44.34 DK Proj. Pts - 46.04
With the Hawks' starters all susceptible to losing minutes, Millsap is the one guy they seem to be committed to sticking with. He can cover any of the Cavs' big men (including LeBron), and is in a very positive situation if the Cavs try to go small again. He can kill Love or Frye on the offensive end, and should be a beast on the boards in that situation as well. As much as I'd be worried about a blowout here, it's a 2 game slate and there's blowout risk all around. I'd be happy to play him anywhere.

The risky guys
Jeff Teague - FD 6500 DK 6400
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 35.42 DK Proj. Pts - 36.74
Kyle Korver - FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 21.6 DK Proj. Pts - 25.07
Kent Bazemore - FD 4900 DK 6100
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 26.9 DK Proj. Pts - 28.31
What a wild series - each of these guys could play +/-10 of the minutes we're projecting them for and I wouldn't be shocked. Still, with minutes getting jerked all over all three are affordable and capable of a big game here. Teague and Korver might well be chalk plays after big performances in game 3, but Baze will be a big time separation play as people fear more Thabo in this game. He's a play for the risk-takers only.

No, thanks: Al Horford & Thabo Sefolosha. Nope.

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

Analysis
Is it me, or is this series sort of starting to deliver? After a wild end to game 2, we got a similarly crazy end to game 3. One less beasty rebound from Kawhi and we might have gotten a chance to see Russell Westbrook shoot a brick while Kevin Durant looked on in disbelief with separation at the top of the arc. Ah, what could have been.

Well, another game in OKC should mean that we can pencil this one in as being competitive (hopefully), so last game should be a fair indicator of how each team plans to approach the game. Things haven't changed much since last game, but I'll give a refresher anyhow.

Top Plays
Russell Westbrook - FD 11000 DK 11000
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 54.71 DK Proj. Pts - 56.59
Serge Ibaka - FD 5600 DK 5600
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.42 DK Proj. Pts - 28.97
It took him 31 shots to do it, but Russ got his 31 points and 50+ fantasy points in game 3, and he's going to alpha-dog his way into nice fantasy totals even if it means escorting his team out of the playoffs. As for Ibaka, we've had 3 solid if unspectacular games from him so far, and he looks like a good play in cash games and a dodge in big tournaments - they're just not using him on the offensive end.

Steven Adams - FD 4900 DK 5500
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 26.68 DK Proj. Pts - 27.16
Adios, Kanter. It's taken this long for Billy Donovan to realize that Adams' two-way contributions far outstrip Kanter's one sided approach, and that's all for the best. Kanter just can't stay on the court with how well the Spurs can execute. Adams had a huge game 2 followed by a disappointing game 3 (from a fantasy perspective), and he's more expensive now - but if he's going to play high 30s/low 40s minutes, we can count on him in any format, here.

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 8900 DK 8800
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 45.05 DK Proj. Pts - 45.95
Aldridge was less than a bone-crusher in game 3, but we probably saw his floor there. The two games prior are far more likely outcomes if he's going to increase his minutes AND his shot frequency this dramatically. The Thunder still haven't proven that they're going to try and stop him in the mid-range, and it might just be an organizational decision to see if the Spurs can beat them with long 2s. One way or the other, this situation hasn't resolved itself yet - Aldridge is a great play in any format.

Danny Green - FD 4200 DK 4200
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 23.8 DK Proj. Pts - 27.33
Manu Ginobili - FD 3700 DK 3800
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 20.62 DK Proj. Pts - 21.99
High floor, potentially high upside plays based on these bargain prices. Green in particular is the Spurs answer for Westbrook - and I wouldn't be shocked to see them continue to leave him on the court to cause Westbrook problems on the defensive end. I like both a bunch.

Tony Parker - FD 5000 DK 5000
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 27.06 DK Proj. Pts - 27.8
What is the Spurs' plan for Parker, exactly? I'm not sure. I was sure he'd play big minutes in this series, if only because the Spurs can hide him on Roberson and put a real defender on Westbrook. Then they didn't and I was sure they didn't think it was a good idea. Then he played 35 very effective minutes in game 3, and I put my head through my office window. I'm in on Parker for game 4, but I'm fully prepared to be Pop'd here.

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