Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/10/16

 

Welcome to Tuesday baseball! We have a full 15 game slate tonight with a few aces and a ton of gas cans. Make sure to check out our 3 other articles as well as they touch on other pitching options, stacks to consider in GPP's and any weather news. Let's get into the top options at each position!

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PITCHER

Drew Smyly FD 9400 DK 10600
Opponent - SEA (Miley) Park - @SEA
FD - 28.44 DK - 14.64

Drew Smyly has this weird perception around him that he is an above average pitcher with a low upside. However, he is far from average and there is an argument to be made that he is on an elite level. Over the last couple years, Smyly has exhibited a 28% K rate, 2.77 xFIP and a 24% hard contact rate. That is as elite as it gets and he is only 26 years old which suggests he will improve. The Seattle Mariners run out a predominant left handed lineup with guys like Cano, Smith, Seager and Aoki. While Smyly will be very highly owned, I am comfortable with him in both cash games and tournaments.

Adam Conley FD 8400 DK 7400
Opponent - MIL (Gonzalez) Park - @MIA
FD - 33.31 DK - 17.4

We have gone from targeting stacks against Adam Conley to targeting Adam Conley. That is baseball for you. Conley has been dominant over his last 2 starts with 15 strikeouts and 0 earned runs in 13 innings. Conley is taking on the same team he no-hit through 7 2/3 last week. While we certainly can't expect another performance like that, we can expect him to go out and throw another quality game. I do prefer Conley in tournaments as I am not fully convinced that he has turned it around 180 degrees. This Brewers team is one that struggles against both righties and lefties as they only have 3 plus hitters in Braun, Lucroy and Carter. Conley should be able to get plenty of strikeouts against guys like Chris Carter, Alex Presley and Ramon Flores, let alone Zach Davies.

Jon Lester FD 11000 DK 11800
Opponent - SD (Vargas) Park - @CHC
FD - 36.12 DK - 19.49

Jon Lester has been moved back to tonight after yesterday's game was postponed due to weather. Lester has been overshadowed by Jake Arrieta to start the year, however, he has been one of the best pitchers in the league. Since the beginning of 2015, Lester has sported a 25% K rate, 24% hard contact rate and a 2.97 xFIP. While the Padres are a much better team against lefties, they are still a very poor team as evidenced by their .311 wOBA in 2016. I prefer Lester in tournaments with guys like Smyly on the slate.

Consider - Kevin Gausman, Juan Nicasio

CATCHER

Welington Castillo FD 4100 DK 4400
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @COL
FD - 13.88 DK - 10.64

Welington Castillo and the Diamondbacks are taking on southpaw Chris Rusin in a game with an 11 over/under in Coors Field. Rusin is a guy who has really struggled against righties as evidenced by his .372 wOBA and 34.4% hard contact rate against. Welington Castillo on the other hand, has hit lefties very well over the past 3 years with a .345 wOBA and 39.3% hard contact rate. This game is played in Coors Field which is obviously the number 1 hitter's park in the league. Castillo is the top option at the catcher position and makes a terrific play in all formats.

Stephen Vogt FD 2600 DK 3400
Opponent - BOS (O'Sullivan) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.58 DK - 9.09

Sean O'Sullivan has signed with the Red Sox after struggling a ton last year with the Philadelphia Phillies. O'Sullivan has held a .430 wOBA against lefties over the last 3 years and his peripherals don't suggest any improvement. The Oakland Athletics are a left handed heavy team and the biggest bats in the lineup are lefty. Stephen Vogt is going to be hitting cleanup and will be in the middle of the multiple runs the A's score. Vogt is a terrific option in all formats.

 

FIRST BASE

Paul Goldschmidt FD 4500 DK 5200
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @COL
FD - 18.77 DK - 14.59

Paul Goldschmidt finally returned to his normal self last night and will look to continue his Coors Field dominance. As mentioned above, the Diamondbacks are taking on a southpaw in Chris Rusin that struggles against right handed hitters. Goldschmidt has hit lefties to a 2015 wOBA of .455 and a hard contact rate of 48.3. There are only a few hitters in the league that will produce numbers like that and Goldy is at the top of that small list. Goldschmidt is far and away the number one option on the slate.

John Jaso FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CIN
FD - 13.32 DK - 10.27

John Jaso has supposedly been working on increasing his power throughout this season and while it hasn't shown just yet, it may pop up at any time. Alfredo Simon is another guy that is absolutely horrible against lefties as evidenced by his .417 wOBA over the previous 3 seasons. Jaso has been a career platoon guy who plays against righties due to his severe splits. Jaso has consistently held a wOBA over .380 against righties throughout his career. Jaso is a GPP only play for me as I will have Goldschmidt everywhere else.

 

SECOND BASE

Derek Dietrich FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.67 DK - 8.37

Derek Dietrich just went out last night and had another spectacular night against a righty. Dietrich has always destroyed righties and now that Dee Gordon is suspended, he is getting the opportunity to be an everyday player. Zach Davies is a right handed pitcher who has struggled against lefties in his short career with a .317 wOBA and 2 home runs in only 22 innings. While this ballpark is certainly not ideal, Dietrich is someone who gets most of his fantasy points by driving guys in and hitting doubles. Dietrich is a great play in all formats.

Jed Lowrie FD 2500 DK 3200
Opponent - BOS (O'Sullivan) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.66

Jed Lowrie is just too cheap around the industry for this match up. As I have mentioned, Sean O'Sullivan has been very bad against lefties throughout his entire career and there are no signs of his numbers improving. Jed Lowrie is a switch hitter and he is much better against righties than he is lefties. In 2014, Lowrie exhibited a .327 wOBA against righties and a 34% hard contact rate. Lowrie is a better cash game play for me as he does not have much power, however, I would not be surprised to see him get it out in this hitters ballpark.

 

SHORTSTOP

Jean Segura FD 3700 DK 4400
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @COL
FD - 12.89 DK - 11.22

Jean Segura had a great game last night and will look to continue that trend tonight against a left hander in Chris Rusin. As mentioned, Rusin is a guy who has struggled against righties. Jean Segura on the other hand, has hit lefties well over the past couple years with a .346 wOBA and an average hard contact rate. However, Jean Segura has shown some power upside this year with 4 early on. I am very comfortable with Segura in both cash games and tournaments.

Jedd Gyorko FD 2000 DK 0
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @LAA
FD - 8.67 DK - 6.74

Jedd Gyorko is going to be my tournament flier at shortstop as he has a ton of power against lefties. While Santiago is a decent pitcher, he has struggled against righties over the past few years with a .340 wOBA and 35% hard contact rate. The Cardinals will likely hit Gyorko in the 6 spot which will give him plenty of opportunities to come up with guys on base. Gyorko is a strict tournament play only for me as I would much rather have the leadoff hitter in Coors in cash games.

 

THIRD BASE

Brandon Drury FD 3800 DK 3600
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @COL
FD - 13.7 DK - 10.85

I mean what else is there to say about these guys? Rusin is a horrible lefty in Coors Field that is going to get knocked around by the Diamondbacks. Brandon Drury has been on absolute fire since making his debut as evidenced by his 6 home runs and 9 doubles in only 94 innings. I am comfortable using Drury in both cash games and tournaments as he will likely get 6 at-bats and plenty of RBI opportunities.

Adrian Beltre FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.86 DK - 9.89

Adrian Beltre is a guy who has always hit lefties extremely well over the course of his career with a .376 wOBA and 34.6% hard contact rate. While Carlos Rodon is a good pitcher, he has struggled against righties as shown by his .350 wOBA in 2015. This ballpark sets up extremely well for Beltre as it was ranked in the top 10 for right handed power. Beltre is a great pivot off of Beltre in both tournaments and cash games.

 

OUTFIELD

Carlos Gonzalez FD 3900 DK 5000
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 16.88 DK - 12.95
Charlie Blackmon FD 4400 DK 4600
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 14.29 DK - 12.38

Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez are in a terrific spot here against a right hander that is absolutely horrible against left handed hitters. Rubby De La Rosa is a guy who has struggled against lefties and his peripherals have backed up the struggles. In 2015, De La Rosa gave up a putrid .404 wOBA and a 5.15 xFIP to lefties. On the other hand, he has been very good against righties which is why I have not mentioned any of them so far. Both Gonzalez and Blackmon have hit righties very well throughout their career with a +.362 wOBA over the past 3 seasons.

Gregory Polanco FD 3400 DK 5000
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.48 DK - 10.53

Gregory Polanco has finally been moved up in the lineup and David Freese has been sent to the bottom of the lineup! This is long overdue as Polanco has hit righties very well over his short career with a .333 wOBA and 34.4% FB rate. As mentioned above, Alfredo Simon is one of the worst pitchers in the league against lefties as evidenced by his .369 wOBA and 37.2% hard contact rate in 2015. As long as Polanco is still in that 3 spot he is a great play in all formats.

Adam Jones FD 2300 DK 3500
Opponent - MIN (Hughes) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.67 DK - 9.13

Adam Jones is just way too cheap on FanDuel. Don't get me wrong, Adam Jones has been absolutely atrocious to start the year with a .200 BA and only 1 home run. However, we need to make sure we don't trust the 26 game sample size and do trust the 1000 game sample size. Over the past 4 seasons, Jones has sported a combined .366 wOBA against both righties and lefties. Jones is a player that will be over $3300 on FanDuel by the end of the year and we need to take advantage while his price is this low.

Consider - Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, Matt Holliday

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