Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/11/16

Welcome to another mid week edition of our daily fantasy baseball picks. We have seven games in the early slate and nine in the late slate due to a double header between the Padres and Cubs.With very few top starting pitching options on either slate it looks like a great night to pay down and load up on hitting. It just so happens there is a great matchup in Coors Field for us to target our hitters. Game on!


Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with MLB Optimal Lineups, Projections and Player Cards. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL as well! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!



Early Slate

Kyle HendricksKyle Hendricks FD 8500 DK 9000
Opponent - SD (Rea) Park - @CHC
FD - 34.32 DK - 17.84

He is an excellent option in any format today and comes at a big discount off the top options in mediocre to poor matchups. Hendricks on the other hand has a terrific matchup at home vs. the Padres who rank 29th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season and strike out over 25% of time. The Cubs also provide their pitchers with a ton of offensive support with a league best 184 runs scored and +102 run differential. The Cubs lead the majors with 24 wins and are currently riding a seven game win streak and as of writing this look to extend that streak as they are beating the Padres 6-3. Hendricks isn't going to go deep into the game or provide a ton of strikeouts but is an extreme ground ball pitcher(60.5% GB%) who limits the damage and gives his team a chance to win each start.


Evening Slate

Max ScherzerMax Scherzer FD 9100 DK 11300
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @WSH
FD - 43.04 DK - 24.42

It's very likely Scherzer will be extremely low owned tonight due to his recent start where he gave up four homers and seven earned runs in just over five innings pitched. The HR has been an issue to start 2016 as he has gave up nine with a 19.2% HR/FB rate. The strikeout upside is still there as he is striking out over nine batters per nine innings but the walk rate(3.14 BB/9) is over almost two batters higher than last season. He will face his old team for the second time since coming to Washington and will seek his first win vs. the Tigers. While the Tigers hit right handed pitching well they also strikeout over 24% of the time. I don't trust him at all in cash games but will definitely have exposure in GPP's tonight.


Jerad EickhoffJerad Eickhoff FD 6900 DK 8000
Opponent - ATL (Chacin) Park - @ATL
FD - 33.88 DK - 18.05

Targeting starting pitching against the Braves has been a +EV play all season. They rank dead last in runs scored(90) and are the only team in the majors to not break 100 runs yet. They also rank last in team wOBA vs. left handed batters(.240) and right handed batters(.272) while striking out over 20% of the time vs. both. It has been a rough start to the season for Eickhoff who has started 4-1 with a 4.21 ERA but positive regression is right around the corner. He is operating with a xFIP of 3.45 giving us the impression that he is pitching better than his 4.21 ERA. Another factor leading to his poor record is his below average LOB%(66%) which is down from the 80% rate from last season. He is also only receiving 2.5 runs/game support form the offense which ranks 97th among qualified starting pitchers. If the Braves can put together a decent offensive game vs. Chacin, Eickhoff could be in store for a nice fantasy day and win #2.



DFSR 705x90


Early Slate

Welington CastilloWelington Castillo FD 4200 DK 4000
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 11.54 DK - 8.85

He comes with a premium price once again today as the Diamondbacks continue their series in Coors Field. He hits in the middle of the lineup and gets  ton of opportunities to drive in runs and has already picked up seven home runs and 19 runs batted in so far in 2016. He comes in to this game with hits in six straight and nine of his last 10 games and gets a terrific matchup vs. Chad Bettis who has struggled recently. He has given up 15 earned runs(4 HR) in his last four starts and isn't going to scare anybody with strikeouts.


Evening Slate

Brian McCannBrian McCann FD 3200 DK 3500
Opponent - KC (Ventura) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.15 DK - 8.39

The Yankees will get a terrific matchup vs. Yordani Ventura on Wednesday night. He has seen his K rate drop by over a batter per inning from the last two years and has totally lost all control walking over seven batters per nine innings. His ERA is a poor 4.65 and it could be much worse as his xFIP sits at 5.94 on the season. If he continues to walk batters at this rate he is going to get blasted once again(given up 5 ER in each of his last two starts). It will be a great spot for the let handed bats in Yankee Stadium's short right field wall and Mccann is having a great start to the 2016 season with a .267 average, four home runs, 12 RBI, and 17 runs scored. Load up on the Yankees tonight.



Early Slate

Paul GoldschmidtPaul Goldschmidt FD 4600 DK 5200
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 15.8 DK - 12.28

Goldy will again be the top option at 1B today. Although he went just 1-5 last night he picked up his seventh home run of the season and 18th run batted in. He is showing more patience as he is walking over 23% of time but is getting incredibly unlucky with a BABIP that is over 70 points lower than his carer average. Maybe all he needed was trip to Coors to turn things around. He will face Chad Bettis today who, as I mentioned above, has struggled recently giving up 15 earned runs in his last four starts.


Byung-ho ParkByung-ho Park FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.59 DK - 8.95

Byung-Ho Park has has a very productive start to his major league career with the Twins. While he is only hitting .256, he already has seven home runs and 12 RBI with an impressive 151 wRC+(21st among all hitters) in his first 26 games. He will get a matchup vs. Tyler Wilson on Wednesday who has been servicable at best since transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation. He has gone 1-1 while striking out just nine batters and walking four and giving up two home runs. He has struggled more vs. right handed batters with a .313 wOBA against while Park has fared much better vs. right handed pitching with a .263 average(.200 vs. LH pitching).


Evening Slate

Hanley RamirezHanley Ramirez FD 3700 DK 4700
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.78 DK - 10.08

Hanley had a huge game last night going 3-4 with a home run and three runs scored in a Red Sox 13-5 win over the Athletics. He has been red hot lately with hits in 13 of his last 14 games bringing his season average up to .286 while his OBP sits at a respectable .331. The issue with Hanley this season is his K rate of 34.6% which is close to 8% higher than his career average. If he can start to limit those K's there is room for even more upside moving forward. He gets a great matchup vs. Eric Surkamp who is on the wrong side of a K/BB ratio with nine strikeouts and 12 walks in his first four starts this season. With the A's bullpen getting taxed last night it could be another very high scoring game today.
dfsr lineup tool banner



Early Slate

Jean SeguraJean Segura FD 3900 DK 4600
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 11.96 DK - 10.42

Whenever there is a strong offensive team on the road in Coors the projections are going to like them a bit better than the home team due to the price. This is the case again today as the D Backs come at a bit of a discount from the Rockies and have similar upside as both teams have Top 7 offenses. Segura has been a terrific addition to the D Backs at the top of the order and has produced a .341 average and .369 on base percentage so far in 2016. He has also added five home runs, 16 RBI, and 18 runs scored with a 135 wRC+. If you are stacking D Backs make sure to include the spark plug at the top.


Jason KipnisJason Kipnis FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.68 DK - 8.68

Don't be fooled by Doug Fisters back to back wins. He will do that once in awhile just to trick you into thinking he is still good. I assure you he isn't the same pitcher that went 16-6 with the Nationals back in 20-14. He is giving up close to 6% more fly balls combined with a HR/FB rate that is almost 5% more than it was when he was churning out wins for the Nats. Jason Kipnis will be in a good spot Wednesday night as he has had much more success against right handed pitching(.292 avg) than against left handed pitching(.190 avg). Fister has also struggled much more against left handed batters giving up a .366 wOBA.


Evening Slate

Dustin PedroiaDustin Pedroia FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.84 DK - 9.36

Pedroia continues to be productive in his 11th season for the Red Sox an dis hitting .291 to start the season with five home runs, 17 RBI and 22 runs scored. While he has struggled vs. LH pitching early in the year he has positive splits for his career and is a .304 hitter vs. southpaws. He will face Eric Surkamp, who I mentioned above with Hanley, is giving up more walks than strikeouts and could get into trouble with this patient and powerful Red Sox lineup.



Early Slate

Trevor StoryTrevor Story FD 4600 DK 5000
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @COL
FD - 14.79 DK - 12.05
What a Story(pun intended) it has been for the young Rockies shortstop who is getting an opportunity while Jose Reyes deals with possible discipline. If Story keeps up the torrid pace he is on, Reyes may not get to touch the field when(if?) he returns. He has started his career with 11 home runs, 27 RBI, and 23 runs scored. The Rockies only picked up four hits last night and struggled vs. Jorge De La Rosa and I expect a big bounce back Wednesday afternoon vs. Colin Rea who has survived a K rate below 7 K/9 and a walk rate high than 3.5. His ERA is sitting at 3.82 but his xFIP of 4.26 suggests he is due for some regression. I am expecting the high run total of 11 to reach the over today.


Evening Slate

Xander BogaertsXander Bogaerts FD 4100 DK 4900
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.2 DK - 9.67

Another strong choice from the Red Sox lineup vs. left handed pitcher Eric Surkamp. I mentioned with Pedroia and Hanley that Surkamp has struggled with control and walked more than he has struck out which could get him into a lot of trouble in this game. Bogaerts has been a patient hitter(8.5% BB rate) and is sporting a very impressive .376 OBP and .315 batting average. He is also showing very strong splits vs. left handed pitching batting an even .400 in 18 plate appearances.

Didi GregoriusDidi Gregorius FD 2000 DK 2700
Opponent - KC (Ventura) Park - @NYY
FD - 8.56 DK - 6.7

As you can probably tell by my second recommendation that shortstop is a baron wasteland tonight.  In the lineups I won't be paying up for Bogaerts I will be punting all the way down to Gregorius to fit more of the top hitters. Didi is coming off a big game yesterday as the Yankees beat the Royals 10-7 in game two of the series. He went 2-3 with a run and 3 RBI. The Yankees will be in a great spot to take three in a row from the Royals who are throwing Yordani Ventura on the bump. He has been awful to start the 2016 season walking over 7 batters per nine innings and is currently running with a 5.94 xFIP.


Early Slate

Kris BryantKris Bryant FD 4600 DK 4900
Opponent - SD (Rea) Park - @CHC
FD - 15.06 DK - 11.66

The 2015 National League Rookie of the Year has picked up right where he left off and is a key part of the leagues best offense. Bryant has dropped his K rate by almost 9% and has seen his average go up because of this. He is currently hitting .299 with five home runs, 20 RBI, and 23 runs scored with an excellent .383 on base percentage. While Bryant is a better hitter vs. right handed pitching, Colin Rea isn't expected to be in the game long as he has only made it past the 6th inning in two of his six starts and can struggle with control at times.


Jacob LambJacob Lamb FD 3700 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 12.9 DK - 10.12

Lamb is a very affordable option at 3B tonight in a plus matchup in Coors Field. He hits cleanup for the D Backs in his third season in the big leagues and continues to grow as a player. After hitting just six home runs in 107 games last season, he has already hit four in his first 32 games in 2016. He has improved every facet of his game starting with his average which is up to .291. The success can be attributed to his 3% increase in walk rate and close to 7% drop in K rate. After a monster game to open the series he cooled off going 0-5 last night. Look for a big rebound today against Chad Bettis who has given up 15 ER(4 HR) in his last four starts, three of which were away from Coors.

Evening Slate

Aaron HillAaron Hill FD 2400 DK 2500
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @MIA
FD - 7.47 DK - 6.01

Hill is a very affordable option on both sites and is red hot right now with hits in 10 of his last 11 games. He has already hit four home runs in his first season as a Brewer after hitting just six in 116 games with the D Backs last season and actually has a lower BABIP(.244) than last season and his career high. To get the big bats in your lineup you will need some salary relief and Hill provides this with upside to go along with the safe floor.



Early Slate

Miguel SanoMiguel Sano FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - BAL (Wilson) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.72 DK - 9.59

Sano is hard to trust in cash games with a .234 average and a K rate of 33.1% but makes an excellent GPP play with power upside, especially on FanDuel. After being called up last season he hit 18 home runs in just 80 games and continues to see a hard hit ball rate above 40% for the second straight season. The matchup vs. Tyler Wilson bodes well for Sano as Wilson has given up a home run in two of his first three starts after joining the rotation.

Consider: Jason Heyward and Brandon Drury


Evening Slate

Gregory PolancoGregory Polanco FD 3400 DK 4900
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.16 DK - 10.26

This play hinges on manager Clint Hurdle's decision on his batting order for tomorrow. Polanco has been hitting third while Jung Ho Kang has been out and has stuck there in the four games since his return but it's unclear whether it will remain that way as Kang builds up strength in his surgically repaired knee. Polanco has been great in his absence with a .284 average and .388 OBP which is a direct result of his 15% walk rate. I don't see how the Pirates can move him back down with a 133 wRC+ but who am I? Just a fantasy sports writer.


Carlos BeltranCarlos Beltran FD 2600 DK 3400
Opponent - KC (Ventura) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.69 DK - 8.15

Beltran is a switch hitter who has seen slightly better success vs. right handed pitching(.258 avg) over the past three years. He is coming off back to back games with multiple hits and gets a favorable matchup on Wednesday vs. Yordani Ventura who is walking over seven batters per nine innings and is giving up a .332 wOBA against left handed bats. If Ventura continues to give out free passes like water at a rave, the Yankees could make his day a very short and painful one.

Consider: Mookie Betts 
So yeah, baseball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our MLB eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy MLB lineup. It's free, below.



And Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings every day!

image sources

22 Visitor Comments

  1. Hey. Eickhoff isn’t in the optimal

  2. Oh how I love your post. Im am a rookie on Draftkings and got some tips from your post yesterday. With the advice you gave on stacking up on Boston hitters (and a few of my sneak picks) made me $125 from a buck. A whole dollar I say… I hit 2nd place off the leader by 1 point. Sometimes that one point makes a difference but hey I cant complain. But sincerely I appreciate your tips hopefully they’ll work for me in this mornings BIG TOURNEY. Wish me luck. Ill keep you posted and THX AGAIN!!!

  3. Congrats Marc. Thanks Doug for the Morgan recommendation yesterday. He was the lone bright star in my Rockies-ridden line ups. Days like yesterday do happen though and we can bounce back today.

  4. Did anybody ekse play Tulo yesterday? He was dirt cheap on Dratkings and had a great matcup. If figured his bat was due to wake up eventually and last night might be it. And it was. He has a similar matchup and price tonight. I’m hoping that lightening strkies twice.

  5. I was all over tulo last night as well. I don’t trust him back to back that’s just me

  6. It is Bumgarner, but he has a great history against him.

  7. I play Tulo a lot lol, I’ll always play him and save money. He Adam Jones and Beltran I’ve been riding for the last week or so.

  8. You have Trevor Story facing Colin Rea of the Padres.

  9. I believe you should strongly consider Lacky Tonight averaging 39 FPPG on FanDuel and will be facing a below average and worn down Padres team in the second game of a double header.

  10. What are today’s optimizer problems? Lock out eve. slate and all players disappear. Try to lock a player and all players lock………

    • Yuck. Sorry about that. I was trying to feed new data in related to batting lineups but it looks like it screwed up other pieces. I put back and it looks like working fine again now.

  11. If playing in all day slate on DK, do we get Cubs and Padres hitters for 2 games? I could not find this info in the rules.

  12. Im nervous to go back to the Arizona/Colorado stack today? Is it safe or another trap?

  13. @Anthony O All day slate only includes the early Cubs/Padres game but if playing early or late slates both games are included.

  14. Thanks Chris. The all day slate offers some interesting options today with lineup flexibility. I usually do not play that slate, but today looks good.

  15. I faded Baltimore because of weather in Minnesota. Went Arizona & Colorado stack with Cubs Baez and Soler as my punt options lol Good luck today!!

  16. I like the Sano pick!…plus today is his bday

  17. Anyone have any insight on weather for the late Cubs game? I wanna roll with Lackey but I see on radar rain is on the way.. What should I do???

  18. Mad max or lackey. Cash game?

Post a Reply




Our free NBA and MLB eBooks, and picks to your inbox every day!

Your eBooks are on their way!