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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/12/16 Playoffs
Thursday and Friday bring us two more elimination games. OKC is hosting the Spurs, trying to knock them out on their home court. I’m pretty sure they’d rather avoid a Game 7 in San Antonio. Toronto will be at the Heat. If they can close out the series on the road, that’ll go a long way towards reversing their rep as postseason chokers. It would also be the franchise’s first appearance in the Conference Finals. What’s the impact for DFS? Lots of motivation, lots of minutes for the top rotation guys, and plenty of production from the teams’ stars. You’ll see that reflected below.
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San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
Analysis
Wow. OKC stole one on the road. I have to admit… didn’t see that coming. The Thunder now have a chance to close out the series at home. Given the comeback they had to mount to win Game 5, it’s hard to say they can’t produce down the stretch. That said, one game a trend does not make. To lose that “hero ball” rep, they’ll need to get it done on Thursday. The result on Tuesday did involve Westbrook and Durant dominating the ball, but the difference seemed to be the activity by Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. We can only hope that they learned something from that, and the stars begin displaying more trust in their (extremely talented) supporting cast. The Spurs failed to close out the game despite the heroic efforts of Kawhi Leonard. His teammates missed shots and allowed offensive rebounds. The officiating didn’t hurt either. I’m expecting a close, hard-fought game on Thursday, where the usual suspects dominate the ball, come up with big performances, and execution down the stretch determines the outcome of the game. Not very original, but the script fits. It also drives the DFS epectations.
Top Plays
Russell Westbrook - FD 11100 DK 11100
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 54.71 DK Proj. Pts - 56.59
Where else to start in this game? Those of you who’ve read my picks before know I have a man-crush on Russ. Late game hero-ball tendencies aside, he’s one of my favorite players in reality and DFS. You’ll have to pay through the nose to get him in your lineup, but the multiple justifies the investment. He’s not the very top Pts/$ play, but he’s pretty close, and certainly the only elite option.
LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 8700 DK 8700
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 45.05 DK Proj. Pts - 45.95
LMA’s play has fallen off in this series after a blistering start. It has clearly affected his team. He missed several shots down the stretch of Game 5, contributing to the unexpected home loss. Look for a strong performance in a do-or-die game. He’s the best Pts/$ option among all higher-end players on FD and DK, as well as the #2 PF on FD. Play him there, and consider him strongly on DK if you’re looking to spend some money.
Serge Ibaka - FD 5200 DK 4700
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.42 DK Proj. Pts - 28.97
If you’re looking for a top power forward play, Ibaka is your man. He has the highest Pts/$ projection on FD and DK at the position. On DK, it’s not even close due to the relative pricing disparity. He is pretty much a must-play on both sites, and on DK he’s a no-brainer.
Kawhi Leonard - FD 9500 DK 9100
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 44.59 DK Proj. Pts - 46.42
His projected multiple isn’t terribly strong, and he’s certainly not cheap. However, you have to spend your money somewhere. I’m comfortable that he’s going to be very active under the circumstances, which gives him a strong upside. Also, the position’s not terribly exciting on this slate. Leonard is a good option to spend value gained elsewhere.
Manu Ginobili - FD 3600 DK 3600
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 20.62 DK Proj. Pts - 21.99
Danny Green - FD 4400 DK 4400
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 23.8 DK Proj. Pts - 27.33
I’m presenting these guys together because they’re the picks of the night on both FD and DK at shooting guard. They’re also both Spurs. That said, their profiles are a little different. We like Green’s floor (he he’s unlikely to fall below a 4x), producing at least minimum value in four of the five games in the series. Note that his price has risen substantially through the series, limiting his upside. Manu is definitely a low floor/high ceiling play. He just saw a 5% price drop, so he’s certainly become more attractive. You can find steadier picks at the position, but not with his upside.
Steven Adams - FD 5200 DK 5900
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 26.68 DK Proj. Pts - 27.16
Adams is like the Energizer Bunny, he just keeps going and going and going … (sorry if I’m dating myself). I love his game in real-life, and he is the top DFS play at Center on FD. His high price on DK lowers his multiple and renders him more difficult to roster, unless you’re looking to pivot off the top recommendation (see below).
Kevin Durant - FD 10100 DK 9400
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 43.92 DK Proj. Pts - 46.54
It would be wrong not to present KD. He might go off at any time. The DFSR projections are not kind on FD, where you really should consider him only if you don’t trust one of the two top plays (again, see below). The drop off from them to Durant is that big. He is worthy of consideration on DK. You can find slightly better multiples with a couple of SF alternatives, but betting on his upside wouldn’t be the worst choice either.
I can’t give him a full write up, but if you’re looking for a cheap flier at Center on DK, Timaaaay is worth a look for just $3k. His salary puts him in the no-fly zone on FD. Goran Dragic is also worth a mention at PG if you’re looking to differentiate your lineup, but comes with quite a low floor.
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
Analysis
Five games, five nail-biters. The first two seemed a little boring to me, as the grinding pace and bad shooting grated the nerves. The play has picked up a bit, Kyle Lowry is playable again, the games have remained tight, and the series has really become quite compelling. Injury has muddied DFS expectations. Bismack Biyombo has become a broadly-owned commodity. Patrick Patterson may fall into the must-play category. Josh McRoberts may have fantasy relevance. Justise Winslow picked up heavy minutes, and might do so again. Luol Deng was in foul trouble and threw up a bagel from the floor – you can expect a bounce-back game in terms of minutes and performance, IF he’s fully healthy. Finally, you can expect D-Wade to be dominating the ball in crunch time. He probably should. The picks below reflect all of the above.
Top Plays
DeMar DeRozan - FD 7400 DK 7300
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 37.23 DK Proj. Pts - 38.19
If you don’t want one (or both) of the cheap Spurs, DeRozan is your guy. He played like the guy we saw in the regular season on Wednesday. If you think he keeps that up, you may find him difficult leave alone. If you think he reverts to his miserable postseason shooting performances, stay away. The DFSR system predicts the former.
Kyle Lowry - FD 8200 DK 8000
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 39.5 DK Proj. Pts - 41.83
While I am still convinced there is something off about the guy, he isn't letting that effect how much he's shooting. Lowry put up 25 shots last game and went 25/10/6 for an outstanding line. I think we can pencil him in for about 40 minutes again in this one and the price is still in a fine range of value.
Bismack Biyombo - FD 5500 DK 5600
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.28 DK Proj. Pts - 27.85
It's actually a pretty close call in terms of the top value play at center between Bismack and Adams. I The former's playing major minutes with Jonas on the shelf and game five saw him with a 10/6 line while chucking in blocks and steals. I think that's the low end of fantasy production for this guy if you are putting his minutes in the high 30's.
Dwyane Wade - FD 8300 DK 8200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 39.18 DK Proj. Pts - 39.79
The Heat manage his minutes pretty strictly, but if there was a chance to see him get all the run he needs then this is the game. It's elimination time for the Heat and Wade's been their primary scorer in this series. Though he didn't dominate the shot volume last game, I think you see him get more looks up from the field here.
Strongly consider Demarre Carroll and Luol Deng if they come back to game six at full strength.
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image sources
- Tony Parker, LaMarcus Aldridge: (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
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SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.
fanduel tourney lineup
Westbrook
cojo
green
richardson
durant
Leonard
pattetson
aldridge
Adams
Fanduel cash lineup
Westbrook
Parker
Wade
Green
Winslow
Leonard
Aldridge
Patterson
Biyombo
This is a difficult one because Deng and Carroll are questionable with the game being tomorrow…
Looking for some help on DK tourney. Been on a losing streak here lately.
DK
Lowry
Derozan
J Johnson
Deng
Biz
Parker
Diaw
KD
Go win some $
Thanks.. I will try.
BB or Adams? My lineups have enough money to play either
Can anyone explain why the Heat might not use Wade? If Carroll is back, but raptors go small, does Wade sit and Richardson play 20+? Same goes with Patrick Patterson if Deng is back, but Heat stay small with Whiteside out. Who gets more minutes on these situations?
Wade is going to play,….alot.
Heads up!
Fantasy Labs says BOTH Carrol and Deng are ON TRACK to play Friday as of today!
Anyone think Aldridge is must play or could fade for Serge?
Also Russ a must play in all lineups?
PF is a mess. Aldridge hasn’t been the same since OKC moved Adams onto guarding him. Deng is beat up. I’m not touching Ibaka because on defense he has nothing to do since they have him on Duncan and on offense he’s being replaced when it counts when OKC goes Adams/Kanter in the same lineup. Got to take risks somewhere and I may just punt PF all together and payup elsewhere
For DK gpp lineup confused between lowry and Wade any thoughts
Wade should get mega minutes and I like him in a must win home game. He did cost me some big wins last night vs Derozan. I was going crazy for a whistle to blow in the 4th so he could get back on the floor!
Thanks for the advice Rebubula. Any thoughts on KD or Leonard?
I would take Leonard over kd. I don’t see him dropping 40 plus again.
You missed on that pick
Green or Richardson, could be the make or break decision.
Thomas, what’s your opinion on choosing between Richardson or ginobbli?
anyone play fantasyaces salarypro theres a freeroll need help with lineups
I think the make value play of the day is between many and green any thoughts?
Richardson too! Sarah c it’s tuff deciding on my $4 gpp only have 1 lineup
What do you guys think?
Im pretty sure this is the DK winning lineup!
Westbrook
Wade
Durant
Aldridge
Adams
Lowry
Leonard
Derozan
My bad auto correct manu
We need $17,700 more to afford that lineup 662mob lol
LOL its the only way to guarantee victory!
Any suggestions on this lineup for FD?
westbrook
parker
waiters
wade
leonard
carroll
aldridge
diaw
adams
Cojo or Winslow? Punts seem to make or break these days.
Can’t believe Danny Green is sucking so much already.
Danny Green’s stat line so far 0/0/0/0/0 2PF….
Danny Green is on the board!!!! That APB I put out on him must’ve worked.
He’s barely on the board though. What a waste.
Looks like Robertson was the punt of the night.
Glad the Spurs are done so Danny Green will stop screwing up my lineups
Playing $4 contest on draftkings, only person I had going in OKC game was Westbrook, give me your opinion on this lineup.
Westbrook
Wade
Winslow
Patterson
Amare
Derozan
Joe Johnson
Lowry
Josh Richardson or Cory Joseph at guard?
Lowery
Derozan
Kawhi
Aldridge
Duncan
Roberson
Durant
Tyler Johnson
This is the line up I went with
Quick question…….
How did people know to pick Roberson? He avg like 4 pts a game yet blew up for his price yesterday.
For the ones who picked him, was it purely taking a chance on him or you knew they were going to use him more last night?
Roberson had a decent game in game 4 I think. He scored 20 fantasy points
In general “role” players at home in the playoffs are often times a good play.
Question/Feedback.
So started pretty decent last night with the 2 day slate. 1 lineup, both GPP and Cash.
Have Westbrook Duncan, Leaonard, Durant in the clubhouse. Looking tonite thinking either
Richardson, Patterson, Dragic, Winslow
or
Richardson, McRoberts, Joseph, Lowry.
I really like Richardson tonite, at home, Dragic/Wade have not looked good, and Richardson has been getting a ton of run. Will Winslow get more run tonite, with Deng ailing? He’s been hitting 30 minutes, and could be a lock for 10+ rebounds tonite.
I really like Lowry too, he may be getting healthy, is getting a ton of run, and should be a safe play even if he doesn’t score 25+. He’s getting a ton of rebounds and assists.
Thoughts on tonite?
McRoberts actually had a couple decent games in the regular season when he played 25+ minutes. Joseph may get a lot of minutes of both teams go small ball. Seems like there are a ton of options tonite, al which may dramatically effect results. Lot’s of Greens, Kanters and Parkers below value last night!
Mcroberts or haslem tonight???? They will either make or break my lineups tonight.
what about Winslow? I feel like he’s gonna keep getting 30 mins in
Doug you feel Deng is safe in the optimal line up with his injury? Thanks.
Thoughts on Deng & Carroll?
They are both scary, but I don’t know how else to project their minutes without hearing definitive news.