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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/13/16
Welcome back to another Friday edition of our daily fantasy baseball picks. With just one game(PIT vs. CHC) in the afternoon on Friday we will turn the majority of our attention to the 14 game evening slate. Outside of ace Chris Sale there isn't much to like about the starting pitching tonight. It will be a great night to load up on some elite hitters in great matchups. Hello Coors Field welcome to my lineups!
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PITCHER
Chris Sale FD 12000 DK 12300
Opponent - NYY (Severino) Park - @NYY
FD - 39.31 DK - 22.26
He is the top pitching option on the slate and it isn't really close. He is over $2K more than the next option and is in play in any format. He has started the year with a win in each of his first seven starts while limiting opposing hitters to a .165 average. While he is due for some regression pitching to a .206 BABIP and 82% LOB% he is still an elite pitcher in a favorable matchup. So far in 2016 the Yankees rank 23rd in team wOBA(.306) and 26th in team ISO(.114) vs. left handed pitching. While Sale's strikeouts could be limited(we will still take 6-8 though) as the Yankees strikeout just under 20% vs. left handed pitching, he will be able limit the left handed power in Yankee stadium with the short right field fence.
Jake Odorizzi FD 7900 DK 8300
Opponent - OAK (Hill) Park - @TB
FD - 31.12 DK - 16.2
It has been a very interesting start to the year for Jake Odorizzi who has made seven start with a decent 3.10 ERA but has no wins to show for it. Wins are variable for a pitcher but the minimal 3.71 run support per start he is receiving, which ranks 68th among eligible starters, has played a huge part in the win column. The strikeout rate is on par with his career average and he is actually walking about a batter less per nine innings. He will get a favorable matchup on Friday vs. the Athletics who rank 22nd in team wOBA and come into this game losers of five straight games. He is playable in all formats at a price right in the $8K range on both sites.
Gio Gonzalez FD 8900 DK 8100
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @WSH
FD - 32.58 DK - 16.71
Once we get past Chris Sale there isn't too much to get excited about on Friday. There are some decent options(Samardzija, Liriano, Harvey) who all enter road matchups vs. good offenses. They all can be considered for GPP but for cash games I feel you can turn to Gio tonight. He is a better play on DraftKings as the 10th most expensive option but playable on both sites under $9K. His K rate(6.81) is down almost two batters per nine innings which can be attributed to his swinging strike %(8.6%) which is his lowest since 2010. He gets a great matchup to try and improve those numbers as the Marlins strikeout out over 24% of the time vs. left handed pitching.
CATCHER
Russell Martin FD 2200 DK 3800
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.67 DK - 8.22
The first of four Blue Jays hitters listed today. The projection system is going to list the Jays almost every time they face a non elite left handed pitcher. It has been a rough start to the season for Martin who is still hitting below the Mendoza line(.200) due to his extremely high K rate of 37.5% which is over double his career average. He is a GPP play on DraftKings at his current price but is in play in all formats on FanDuel at $2,200. He hit left handed pitching to the tune of a .278 average last season(46 points higher than his average facing right handers).
Wilson Ramos FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @WSH
FD - 8.85 DK - 6.91
It has been a fantastic start to the 2016 season for Wilson Ramos as he leads all catchers(Min 80 PA) with a .410 wOBA and 153 wRC+. While I don't expect this to continue at such a torrid rate there is still some value with a second tier price tag. He is walking right around 2% more than the last couple seasons which is bonus vs. Tom Koehler who struggles with control at times with a 4.60 BB/9 rate in 2016. Ramos is a safe option in cash games and has some pop to provide GPP upside as well.
FIRST BASE
Miguel Cabrera FD 3600 DK 4200
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.51 DK - 10.25
While he isn't the same player he was when he was chasing Triple Crowns and locking up AL MVP awards, he is still a very serviceable option in daily fantasy. When looking at first base alone he is the 13th ranked in salary on both sites. Talk about value for one of the best pure right handed hitters....ever! He is still sporting an above average 36% hard bit ball rate and 25% LD rate. He will face Chris Tillman tonight who has K upside but has also struggled with his command(3.76 BB/9 rate). If you aren't paying up for the studs(Rizzo, Davis, Goldy) Cabrera is a great alternative option on Friday.
Prince Fielder FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.27 DK - 9.31
The Rangers got a day off yesterday and will start a weekend series with the Jays. They get a juicy matchup in game one vs. R.A. Dickey who has struggled against left handed hitters giving up a .375 wOBA and .290 average against, so far in 2016. Fielder has struggled early in the season hitting below .200 but is due for some regression with . 226 BABIP which sits 77 points below his career average. The line drive rate is up while FB rate has dropped resulting in a lack of power but he continues to produce runs with 20 RBI. He will get a shot to elevate some knuckle balls on Friday and improve his HR total.
Edwin Encarnacion FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.96 DK - 10.5
Another Blue Jay bat in a great spot vs. a left handed pitcher. Edwin has slightly positive splits against left handed pitching for his career has seen a much bigger spread in 2016. He is hitting just .234 vs. right handers but .286 vs. lefties. After four straight seasons with 34+ home runs and 98+ RBI he has started 2016 with six long balls and 27 runs batted in. Martin Perez isn't a very good pitcher and EE should be bale to take advantage of that Friday evening.
SECOND BASE
Neil Walker FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @COL
FD - 12.28 DK - 9.48
We have made it this far through the picks and we have our first taste of Coors Field. The Mets split the series with the Dodgers but will be happy to get out of LA after being completely shut down last night by Clayton Kershaw. Coors Field will be a welcome site. Walker has provided a power bat at 2B for the Mets and already has nine home runs on the season after hitting just 16 home runs all of last year. The average(.261) is a bit lower than we would like which could be a direct result of his .256 BABIP which is 39 points lower than his career average. There is no better place for positive regression for a hitter than the thin air of Coors Field.
Jason Kipnis FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.5 DK - 9.35
He lacks the power we would like at his current price point which will limit my exposure to cash games only on Friday. He has been steady with 13 hits in his last 10 games but has only picked up two extra base hits with just two runs batted in. He is coming off a big five hit night on Wednesday and has extreme splits vs. right handed pitching while Ricky Nolasco has struggled vs. left handed bats giving up a .344 wOBA against.
SHORTSTOP
Troy Tulowitzki FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.84 DK - 9.04
The price is still too high on DraftKings but Tulo is in a great buy low spot on FanDuel tonight vs. a weak left handed pitcher. His early season struggles vs. left handed pitching have been masked by an extremely low .095 BABIP which is miles below his career average BABIP of .329 vs. southpaws. I know we sound like a broken record but trust the numbers and the system and ride Tulo at this amazing value.
Asdrubal Cabrera FD 3500 DK 3800
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @COL
FD - 9.95 DK - 7.85
Asdrubal Cabrera isn't the sexiest pick but he gets the job done as the #2 hitter in the Mets lineup. He has a respectable .283 average .344 on base percentage which has helped him to a 106 wRC+ on the season. He has been a double digit HR guy for five straight years and will get a giant boost tonight in an elite matchup for a hitter in Coors Field. He will face Jon Gray who has been two different pitchers this season when looking at home/away splits. In two away starts he has gone 13 innings and only given up two earned runs but in two home starts he has only pitched 8.2 innings and given up an astounding 11 earned runs. Whoa!
THIRD BASE
Josh Donaldson FD 4300 DK 5400
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.38 DK - 10.95
The reigning American League MVP is picking up right where he left off last season. He leads the league in runs(33) and has nine HR, 21 RBI and an impressive 165 wRC+ early in the year. As I mentioned with the earlier Jays picks, Martin Perez isn't a very good pitcher and should be targeted without hesitation tonight. Donaldson has destroyed left handed pitching this year to the tune of a .438 average in 40 plate appearances.
Maikel Franco FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @PHI
FD - 9.5 DK - 7.35
Whenever Brandon Finnegan is on the bump he should be targeted with all the right handed bats you can find. Even the bat boy if he is listed on DraftKings or FanDuel. While he given up a worse wOBA(.356) to left handed bats, he has given up all eight home runs this season to right handed bats. Franco is a power hitter so it's no surprise to see a spike in his K rate from last season(15.5% to 19.4%), however, he has already picked up half the home runs he hit last year in less than half the games.
OUTFIELD
Jose Bautista FD 4100 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.34 DK - 10.8
While the average is is extremely low(.208) Joey Bats has still provided a safe floor for cash games with 19.1% walk rate in 2016. He has also provided big upside at times as an elite power hitter and has 6 HR, 22 RBI, and 21 runs scored for the Jays. He will be facing a Martin Perez who struggles with control so Bautista's floor will be a walk or two with a ceiling as high as a double dong kinda night.
Nomar Mazara FD 3200 DK 3500
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.45 DK - 8.17
If you want to fade Coors Field tonight this would be the next best game to jump on. The Jays have gotten a lot of love but the Rangers are in an equally good spot vs. R.A. Dickey who has struggled mightily vs. left handed bats(.375 wOBA against). Mazara presents a very affordable option in the outfield who is hitting .319 vs. right handed pitching in his first season in the big leagues. He hits right in the middle of the Rangers lineup that ranks 7th in the majors with 166 runs scored. He is a safe option in any format tonight.
Alex Presley FD 2600 DK 2000
Opponent - SD (Guthrie) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.76 DK - 7.88
*Update* The Padres have changed their starter from last nights projection and will going with left handed pitcher Christian Friedrich. This will most likely push Presley down the lineup limiting his upside. Stay tuned as lineups roll out this afternoon*
Alex Presley provides you with a near min price option at outfield tonight which will assist in getting your Jays stack to fit with Chris Sale. At least this will be my plan. Muhahaha. Presley has spent six years floating back and forth between the big leagues and minors for three different clubs but looks to have finally found a steady role in Milwaukee. In limited playing time(17 games/58 plate appearances) he has impressed with a .275 average, .345 OBP, and has slugged three home runs. He is a great value in any format as long as he is in the lineup and hitting near the top of the Brewers order.
Ryan Braun FD 4200 DK 4800
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.32 DK - 8.25
Now that the Padres are throwing a left handed pitcher out there I will be targeting the Brewers right handed power bats today. Friedrich is making his season debut and has been less than impressive with the Rockies over the past four years. He has a combined record of 5-16 and 5.78 ERA. The sample size is small(19 starts since 2012) but he continually shown a lack of control and is a fly ball pitcher who is prone to giving up the long ball. Braun quickly moved up the projection system when the change was made by the Padres as he crushes left handed pitching(.385 avg. and four home runs in 2016).
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I don’t normally play baseball on draftings. Can someone tell me if 205 is good score for a lineup? BC I had a lineup for the late games that I didn’t enter in any tournaments would like to know if I would have won anything
That score will win on Dk 99% of time in any format of baseball
Thoughts on Boston stack of Ramirez, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Bradley jr. And Betts vs McCullers and his season debut?
Wow can’t believe I didn’t enter it. I could have won some serious money
Yea scores were high tonight a winner of one my
Contests had 241 180 is an avg winning score
Even on the later 2 slate games? That’s what this lineup was
205 on DK would cash virtually everything with the exception maybe being H2H on any size slate
I scored 240 last night on the late night 2 game slate (fanduel)
Boom! Those Orioles & Red Sox stacks were money! Great night last night. DFSR, you guys are awesome:)
Thank you Mr. Price and Mr. Kershaw.
Lately stacking Boston has been money….who knows how long it will last. Something like 50+runs over the past 5 games. Amazing.
@Casey it’s worth a shot for tournaments, especially with how hot they have been.
It’s always tough to fade Coors and Toronto facing a LHP
I almost pulled the vast majority of my bankroll after a frustrating stretch. Lastnight was a nice bounce back however the bankroll is still 20% less than it was 2 weeks into the season. Question for you guys, how is the optimizer performing on the GPP level? Any top 10’s or wins?
I only play GPP’s or ‘scratch tickets’ as I call them. I play numerous lineups nightly. 50/50’s are a big turnoff for me because I feel like I’m going back to the local book and placing wagers nightly, not good. The amount of each entry would have to be much larger to make it seem worthwhile, hence the low stress GPP environment I like. It certainly can still be frustrating, lastnight I put up 261 in an after hours tourney and won $9 lol…
Good luck today. I look fwd to hearing how the optimizer is running in tourneys for your guys.
@JC, why are 50/50’s and double ups big turn offs? You mentioned your bankroll has taken a big hit. Perhaps too much of your bankroll is in tied up in the volatile GPPs and would better served in cash. 50/50’s give you the best chance to keep and grow your bankroll. I have been resistant to 50/50s because you don’t get the big W everyone is chasing, but after constantly reading pro content, I changed my thinking and DFS has been more profitable since then. Winning a little money nightly is better than losing money nightly.
That said, the optimizer seems to have a better cash game track record.
Tempted to go Sale and stack the white sox Yankees pitching looks suspect tonight and I just don’t see the Yankees keeping up this offense? Any thoughts?
To me thats the missing piece. An optimizer thats built for GPP’s. Instead of us tweaking on our own. Im fine with the status quo. But a GPP optimizer would set the standard
Cash games Sale is a must but tourneys he will be so high owned. Yankees should be low owned all around so could be sneaky stack. They’re so unpredictable though
Gio Gonzalez is not in the not in the optimizer.
Looks like Padres could be starting a guy named Friedrich today a young lefty which is great for Brewers hitters but looks like it’s his first start and that is usually not the best scenario for hitters and could go to bullpen early. Any thoughts on this?
@Ryan Yes the Brewers bats are in play now that Padres announced Lefty Frederiech. Just releasing the stacks article. Check it out.
U da man Chris I’ll buy the first beer
It’s BASEBALL season FantasyAces followers! I will provide a daily value play for pitching and hitting. If you have questions on constructing your MLB lineup on FantasyAces please feel free to hit me up on twitter!
Undervalued Arm:
Junior Guerra $5,450…at his basement price for a starting pitcher this allows you to really load up on bats in the TOR/TEX and NYM/COL games. He has thrown 6 innings in both of his starts while striking out a total of 9 batters. Today he gets the luxury of the San Diego Padres offense. If Guerra goes 6 innings today and strikes out 4-5 batters he will easily pay back his salary…not to mention he may get you a +3fp win bonus!
Undervalued Bat:
Nomar Mazara $4,300…if you haven’t seen him play, just wow. This kid can RAKE. He gets to face R.A. Dickey in a hitter friendly ballpark today. He provides unlimited upside and should be priced at $5,000 or more with his levels of production.
As always support those that support you. If you’re new to FantasyAces please sign up using the link below:
http://fantasyaces.com/r/TheWalrus82/
Do you golf? We really need to meet and share a beer real soon. I am due for a road trip. lol
Yep I do golf. I’m a member at my home course. It’s only 9 holes but we just upgraded from par 33 to par 36. Two par 5’s now it’s tough but I like it because I can use my driver. We can email ech other. I’m a little busy right now because I umpire baseball but I have every second weekend off and don’t like to book games them. Brandon has a couple nice 18 hole courses and shilo is my brother’s home course or check out oak island resort where bobby hull has a cabin . I’ve never been there. It’s close to the sask border only 1 hour 15 mins from me. Let me know what u think
I will be adding another OF option right away as Alex Presley will most likely be dropped down the lineup with a lefty now on the mound for the Padres.
Harper isn’t showing up on the optimizer. Just a heads up.
Sorry about that. He was coming through our player feed as suspended even though he’s appealing. I fixed and he’s there now.
he isn’t growing up either!
@Jim Thanks. I will get Doug to have a look
Sorry everyone else. Back to baseball. I’m cash games is everyone pretty much going sale Tomlin for their pitchers? Is anyone fading coors in cash games. Or even maybe just one or two mets guys? Finally we get two decent pitchers in coors but the mets should still get to the Rockies guy
Junior Guerra + Chris Sale…. seems like an interesting pitching stack on DK
For cash games ?
More GPP to be able to fit a rangers, Blue Jays, Nats or Brewers stack.
On that note, I really like a Nats stack as a contrarian in GPP
Strongly considering that pair for cash because of hitters pricing. I think it’s that or fade Sale which I prefer not to and think Giants may be sneaky low owned stack
100% agree about giants too! Thought that would be my lil secret haha
I’m in dynasty and keeper leagues so I’m usually in tune with minor league prospects but can anyone tell me anything about Tommy Joseph whom I’ve never heard of other than he was raking at AAA. As a pure punt at C/1b batting 5th is he worth a shot in cash to upgrade pitching
Sorry batting 6th for Phillies
Pitching is so dicey on this slate. 3 different SPs in the first 4 optimal lineups on FD is a bad sign. Means there is very little safety. Junior Guerra at $4700 on DK showing up everywhere. TGIF!
Guerra may be the biggest favorite at his price ever
Very likely. With the +Ev bats all over the place I think there’s also a case to play him on FD in cash but I don’t have the cajones
Is Pearce from TB on FD? I don’t see him. I have him in my DK lineup at 1st
He’s an OF on FD and he’s there
Thanks Doug
I still play on both sites. I think I prefer DK layout, but FD might be easier to win on. Anyone have thoughts on the two?
I like DK for obvious late switch plus multi position eligibility for some guys and by using 2 pitchers don’t always have to hit on both to cash. Think it was Conley who got 3 points other day yet I still cashed every triple up I entered. Personally I’ve been more successful on DK
Thanks John, I love the late switch as well. But almost feel like people who don’t research leave rain out games in FD and it helps people who research. Also, in all my 50/50 lineups tonight sale was owned under 30% on FD. I swear it’s easier to cash on FD
Brewers only ended up 0-130 with RISP tonight. Had Donaldson across the board, which sucks. Glad I used Sale in a lineup and Tillman in two. May have a shot to cash. Just a rough night. Whenever I hit some cheap guys like Dom Santana and Desmond Jennings, the big bats whiff (Donaldson, Murphy, Prince). Maybe tomorrow.