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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/18/16 Conference Championships
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This is the same information that Justin wrote up yesterday as it still applies since Game 2 is tonight
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors
Analysis
The Thunder just keep on winning, and even after watching their last 3 games, I'm not entirely sure how. Sure, Westbrook and Durant are playing incredible (especially Westbrook) but I mean, come on, relying on a guy like Steven Adams to be your third scoring option? It's amazing what the Thunder have been able to accomplish with great rebounding, pestering defense and two superstars. If Game 1 is any indication of what OKC is going to bring to this series then I could see this thing going 6 or 7, whereas before I only saw it going 4 or 5.
Now Golden State didn't play their best brand of basketball last night, I don't think anyone expected them to lose Game 1 on their home floor. The issue was the second half for the Warriors, who seemed to get out hustled and outworked on their way to being outscored by 19 after half. Some of that was open shots just weren't falling as we're accustomed to seeing from Golden State, but you've got to give some credit to the swarming OKC defense. The key takeaway moving forward in this series is that while Curry, Thompson, and Green are sensational, the Warriors need to get some contributions (namely scoring) from 1 or 2 other guys if they're going to advance in this series.
Top Plays
Oklahoma City
Russell Westbrook - FD 9900 DK 11100
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 52.49 DK Proj. Pts - 54.42
If there's one thing to take away from the game last night it's that Westbrook is taking this matchup with Curry and the Warriors extremely personal. He struggled a bit in the first half of Game 1, but came out in the 2nd looking like a man possessed and pretty much single handedly got the Thunder back into the game. While Klay Thompson is a great defender, it appears that Russ is still too quick for him, and Westbrook was able to get into the lane and to the foul line even with Thompson on him in Game 1. In addition when Golden State switched on pick and rolls he was able to get any shot he wanted against whichever much slower defender switched out to guard him. I think Russ has massive upside in this series, and while I don't expect another 7 steal game, a triple double with, let's say 4 steals, isn't out of the question.
Steven Adams - FD 5000 DK 5900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.31 DK Proj. Pts - 27.81
The guy that is going to be owned by pretty much everyone, Adams is far and away your best PPD option at center. His price is still really depressed given the minutes and production, as he's seen at least 35 minutes and recorded a double-double in his last 4 games. It was interesting that Golden State went small as much as they did in Game 1, playing Bogut, Speights, and Ezeli just a combined 31 minutes last night. If this trend continues, Adams should be able to sustain his rebounding and second chance scoring because he's often the biggest guy on the floor. Until the Warriors prove they can keep him quiet in the paint, I'm rolling with Adams.
Kevin Durant - FD 9800 DK 10200
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 55.05 DK Proj. Pts - 58.18
While I personally like Lebron James more at the SF position, I'd be doing everyone a disservice if I didn't at least mention one of the best players in the league here. Durant had a pretty cold shooting night in Game 1, but was able to supplement it with 1 boards and 3 steals. Despite the cold shooting Durant was still the second leading scorer in the game behind Westbrook, and from my point of view his struggles from the field had more to do with him just missing shots that he normally makes than the Warriors applying some kind of special defense. SF is disgusting outside of KD and James, so if you can manage a roster with both of them I'd certainly go that route today.
If you want to go super cheap at SG you could try using Dion Waiters or Andre Roberson, although I tend to lean toward Waiters due to the fact that his minutes are trending upward and OKC is going to need his offense.
Golden State
Klay Thompson - FD 7600 DK 7800
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 35.51 DK Proj. Pts - 39.42
This pick makes a lot of sense here for a number of reasons. I don't love the matchup against Roberson, but he only saw 21 minutes of action in Game 1, and even when he was out there Thompson was able to do some damage against him. Because the Thunder need offense, Dion Waiters is going to get bigger minutes and let's just say he's less than qualified to guard Thompson anywhere on the floor. It's also worth noting that Thompson took the most shots in Game 1 for the Warriors, which is a trend that could continue if everyone not named Steph Curry and Draymond Green continues to struggle on the offensive end. Our system doesn't like him quite as much as DeRozan, but if Thompson is guarded by Waiter for 15-20 minutes a night, we could see some big numbers from Klay.
Draymond Green - FD 9400 DK 9900
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 46.35 DK Proj. Pts - 48.85
Our projection system likes Draymond here, but I like him too for reasons that are difficult to quantify. Green is the unquestionable emotional leader of this team, and I can only imagine how ticked off he is that the Warriors lost Game 1 on their home court. If anyone can have a huge bounce back game after only collecting 5 rebounds and 4 assists, it's definitely Green. With Westbrook looking committed to playing air-tight defense on Curry, Green should have plenty of opportunities to initiate offense and rack up some points. To me this game really seems like it could be one of those "Draymond does everything and ends up with 15/13/10/3/3" games due to how badly Golden State needs to win Game 2. The price is high, but I think the upside here is worth it.
Toronto Raptors at the Cleveland Cavaliers
Analysis
Wow. Well, if the first game is any indication, this series is going to be over quick. That outcome wouldn't be surprising even in the slightest, but I was still somewhat shocked by the sheer dominance on the part of the Cavs. They got everything they wanted in Game 1 and had things clicking with every unit. One thing one couldn't help but notice was just how easy it was for the Cavs to get easy baskets, both in transition and in sets. Even when running half court offensive sets, they still got easy layups or wide open threes. Their ability to both efficiently is something the Raptors can't stop. That much is obvious. What's even more intriguing to me though (and of course this is looking way ahead) but this kind of offense can hang with the Warriors (or Thunder, but mostly the Warriors we were worried about). Last year's Finals Cavs were a shell group running everything through Lebron and relying on him to basically take 100% of the burden. Not this group. They have three-point shooting in abundance, can really hound you on defense leading to transition baskets and have shown they can play small ball for the entire game. This makes things really interesting as we look ahead to the Finals. (Yes, we're looking ahead to the Finals.)
Top Plays
LeBron James - FD 9800 DK 10800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 53.41 DK Proj. Pts - 55.54
Kyrie Irving - FD 7100 DK 8200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 38.54 DK Proj. Pts - 40.66
Kevin Love - FD 7500 DK 8400
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 36.35 DK Proj. Pts - 38.79
The only worry with these three is the blowout. In Game 1 they all saw reduced minutes because the Cavs had blown the doors off Toronto. All three were more than effective in their time on the court with Kyrie looking particularly deadly. He got to the rim over and over. In fact, Lebron and Kyrie combined to shoot 15-21 on closely contested shots. Meaning they were just in a layup line. In fact, Lebron and Kyrie combined for 32 of the starting units' 47 total field goal attempts. I don't think you can count on this kind of shot distribution going forward, but it speaks to how much trouble the Raptors had in defending both.
Love meanwhile didn't need to get his rebounding going enough to hit value on these prices. But this isn't to say it's off the table. I think you see an uptick in his production in Game 2 as Toronto possibly shifts its attention more to the big two.
DeMar DeRozan - FD 7800 DK 7300
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 38.52 DK Proj. Pts - 39.57
The Cavs made it clear they are more than happy letting Derozan take as many long twos as he needs. He put up 11 shots from the right elbow or beyond. I suspect the Cavs love this and Demar only got to the rim twice. The volume alone though has him in play for DFS purposes and his DK price is cheap enough to consider if the Raptors can keep it even a semblance of close.
Kyle Lowry - FD 8600 DK 8600
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 40.32 DK Proj. Pts - 42.8
Shot 0-7 from three and that's basically the whole story. Lowry, like Derozan, had to live on the perimeter all night and it didn't even come close to working. Look for something in the way of a bounce back for Game 2 mostly because I don't suspect he misses every single three pointer in this series.
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image sources
- Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook: (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
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Last night was the situation that makes me question everything I do. I agreed with Vegas on a blowout which it was. So I stack a lot of tonight’s game with punts such as Della, Shump, CoJo, Frye. These guys should get lots of run in a blowout right? Well not one of them hit value under the perfect circumstance. Forget and move on, forget and move on…………
I’m a little disappointed with today’s projections, it’s literally the superstars. Russ, Steph, Klay, etc. Not one 2nd unit projection? Frye, Ezeli, Igoudola, Shumpert…??? Some 2nd unit guys, as we saw played a HUGE factor in Cleveland, & in the Bay too. Throw a few 2nd unit guys in to give us something to work from. Toronto is IMPOSSIBLE to pick, they Rollin w Thompson again over Carroll? Will C Joseph see his minutes decreased bc he’s just not accomplishing anything out there? Last games lineup didn’t work by any means, do they go smaller or bigger? Who sees more/less minutes? Thanks!
Thanks for reading! A lot of what you are looking for is wrapped into our projection system that more clearly breaks down the specific nuances of minutes etc. For these playoff breakdowns we simply aren’t going to each day dissect the minutiae of these micro decisions on the part of teams. These are simply overviews with a slight dissection of the major players.
Thanks Doug, I understand, I’m just frustrated w trying to figure out who’s getting minutes off the bench. I didn’t see Thompson getting those minutes yesterday, although idk what his final FPTS were, but he was on the floor 20m+.
Can I ask you, or anyone one hint of advice? I have a very good tourney lineup going on DK, I only have 1 guy left in tonight’s game. I can get Adams at the most, or Serge, Barnes, or even Iggy! Kanter too, but I don’t think he’s gon out produce any of the fore mentioned names. So on a straight up FPTS projection? Am I better off rolling w Adams or Serge? Or possibly one of the cheaper guys? Altho I can’t see Barnes eclipsing 20 FPTS at best. Kanter yes, but only if he sees high minutes obv, which I doubt. So ok-c what I’m asking? (Haha). More FPTS tonight, Adams or Serge? Or even minutes, who gets more minutes? Thank you for any advice anyone can provide? I did contribute to a lot of ppls winnings the past 3-4 tourneys haha, so a lil love for me?
Adams has been in the top 3, along with Russell & Durant for the Thunder, as far as minutes & production go… I would roll with Adams for sure! Lately, he’s been a walking double double
I say Adam man he’s been on a spree and serge has his on and off days there still playing away golden state is coming back hard
Adams is the best choice, but with almost no one hitting value last night due to the blowout, if you only have 1 player tonight I don’t think you have much of a chance tonight, but good luck
Yea, sounds like you’re screwed if u have 1 guy tonight. No need to stress about it, you’re done for.
PG Curry, SG Thompson, SF Durant, PF Frye, C Adams, G Roberson, F Barnes, UT Patterson. Any thoughts?
Draftkings lineup
Tracking last night ticket, and is almost no question that it’s up in the air, high scores and variance were super weak going to cash in being that I went for value on cojo and Tristan,durant waiters Serge adams, need them, I just think didn’t and Adams are safe for ownership reason Durant 36% in a 29000+ cool with me waiters 28%good value in these these circumstances
Meant to say Durant where you see didn’t
You guys think Kanter at C instead of Adams in 1 of my multiple lineups is to risky? In order to free up $1,000 on DK
I’m taking a chance on Kanter in one of my lineups as well.
Most of my lineups are focused on the OKC/GS games with a sprinkle of the main guys from Clevland.
I took a chance on Lowry and Derozan but all my punt plays are coming from the OKC/GS game.
My favorite lineup in case of another Cleveland blowout
Curry
Irving
Thompson
Waiters
Durant
Jefferson
Green
Frye
Thompson
Actually considering Kanter or Bogut instead of T Thompson though. Any advice?
FD tourney
Westbrook
Irving
Thompson
Roberson
Durant
Jefferson
Green
Ibaka
Bogut
You guys need to understand, none of these free or paid dfs optimizer sites are going to give you any real helpful info that the masses can’t figure out themselves.
Don’t forget all these sites have employees that play on fanduel or draftkings. they will NEVER tell you a true sleeper. they will tell you what you want to hear. they are capitalists just like you. you need to think outside the box.
I would disagree by and large with this comment. Yes, I play on FanDuel and DraftKings. But for 50/50 lineups I play only lineups that show up at the top of our system. For GPPs I will run different variations based on our optimal lineups (though I’m not a big tourney player) but there is no hidden treasure or secret we keep to ourselves.
Yes, we make money from our site and are grateful for the opportunity. But from a business model perspective it only works if folks feel bought in and believe we are putting out the best product possible. Withholding information would be foolish for us and frankly needlessly cumbersome. It would mean altering projections in order to keep a player hidden. Would be a silly waste of time.
You guys have given me plenty of sleeper picks. That guy is an idiot with nothing better to do.
Ha thanks for the shout out. Mostly I was replying for everyone to know my thoughts on this particular kind of criticism we hear every once in awhile.
If you don’t put Draymond Green in your line-up tonight, you are crazy! Day Day is about to have one hell of a game tonight.
I agree, he’s in all of mine! My hope is they get him back to the 4 and run Bogut some good minutes. They got killed on the boards last game. Tonight is must win for GS.
Doug which opto is helpful for you when playing 50/50 lineups? The 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th opt?
Top lineup for me
Doug What position would you recommend as a punt play tonight.
Lol at the name ismellscammers. These scammers have provided me in the past with a $750 Fanduel winner and a $300 dk winner. As well as others here who have posted gratitude for their winnings based on the info they get here. Might want to take your conspiracy theories elsewhere. Those of us who have been here long enough know these guys are legit and among the best out there.
Crazy low ownership tonight on back end of FD tourney….
Green under 20%
Durant under 40%
Maybe I do have some chances!
Please advise… Have room for one of the following combos. Do I take Curry/Ibaka or Irving/Love???
I think Curry puts up a monster tonight. Also, I’m afraid Toronto is outmatched after game 1. I would go with expensive guys from OKC/GS series until Toronto can prove they won’t get blown out, or until game 3 when the series moves back to Toronto. Just my opinion, even tho Love has been my go to.
Curry/Ibaka. Too much blowout risk for Irving/Love.
how many total points for tourney does anyone think it will take on fd from last night and tonights game? I can reach 280s. thoughts fellows
remember last nights game wasn’t that great for fantasy pts