Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/22/16 Conference Championships

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Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Analysis
Well. Love and Kyrie shot 4-28 from the field, and Cleveland was still within ten points when they brought their starters back in the fourth. The big winner in this game was Biyombo, and he's really the only guy I'm offering a change in guidance on compared to Doug's picks for this series going into this game. I'm not sure we really learned anything else that was dramatically new here, to be honest.

Top Plays
LeBron James - FD 10100 DK 10500
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 53.41 DK Proj. Pts - 55.54
Kyrie Irving - FD 7400 DK 8300
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 38.54 DK Proj. Pts - 40.66
Doug's take:
Even on limited minutes because of the blowout, these two guys were dominant in the second game as well. Lebron put up a triple-double in 34 minutes and didn't have the scoring burden rest on his shoulders. That's a key component for the Cavs' long term viability in this championship run. If they can defer much of the scoring Kyrie's way and use Lebron's wide-ranging skill set to keep opponents on their toes then the Cavs are a real force. Both are in play again and Lebron's a near must play for me considering how much he does in the box score.

Update with news from Saturday's game: Nothing has changed, really. LeBron is a little more expensive, but it doesn't change anything. Kyrie had the worst shooting night of his life, but who cares? You were thrilled with his points per minute production in the previous 2 games, and those look more real to me than this last aberration.

Also considered: Tristan Thompson, who could have been a heck of a lot better in game 3 obviously. Just an off color play for big tournaments.

Doug's take:
A note on the Raptors: It's tough to advocate playing any of them at this point. They spread the minutes far and wide in game two to diminishing returns. Lowry looks completely broken. Derozan can't get his mid-range and drive game going at all. And the rest of the team just doesn't have any upside UNLESS they can stick with one unit and stay in the game. That latter piece is the key. For a tournament I think you can pick a Toronto lane and run it. But knowing that ahead of time is too variable to trust in safer formats.

My take: Welp, DeRozan showed that he can put together a heck of a game when the chips fall right. But I'm not counting any chickens just yet - he won't shoot 50% every game, and the 33% increase in shots could be a fluke. I'm more interested in Bismack Biyombo, who completely embarrassed the Cavs on the boards. Still, it has all the trappings of a fluke game, and I'm trusting the three game sample size here.

Note: Doug wrote this all yesterday, and since there hasn't been a game since, it's all the same. Enjoy!

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder

Analysis
For a little while it looked like the Thunder were really going to make a true run at starting this series 2-0. But then Steph Curry happened. He had a third quarter to remember, shooting the lights out and basically putting the game out of reach for OKC in a short period of time. GSW was up nine at halftime and by the end of the third they were up 21. It was a display and a quick reminder of just how quickly the Warriors can step on your neck when the shots are falling.

OKC still put up a fight and I suspect they continue with the pressure as the game moves them back home. But the Warriors are just such a force it's tough to see them not ending up in the finals (something that really only game one put into doubt for me). Anytime you have two of the top 7 best players in the league (Russ and KD) you have a chance and staggering their rotations does leave room for them to exploit the opposing team's second unit. But if Golden State is going to get out in transition and hit the three then it's always an uphill climb.

Top Plays
Stephen Curry - FD 9900 DK 10700
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 52.41 DK Proj. Pts - 56.83
Curry didn't have much going in the first half. The Thunder did an excellent job of bottling him up at point of contact and he only got off four three pointers by halftime. They also forced him into some ill-advised passes. But all that went away in the second and he was a superstar again. The blowout is less of a risk on the road for Steph and I suspect he sees major minutes in this one.

Draymond Green - FD 9400 DK 9500
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 46.28 DK Proj. Pts - 48.78
It appeared (many, many, many times) like he was actively trying for a technical foul (or worse) in the second game. Jawing, staring down, chipping, just everything to get the Thunder riled up. But again he was a jack-of-all trades finishing with a 10/8/7/2/1 line in only 32 minutes.

Russell Westbrook - FD 9800 DK 11100
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 52.49 DK Proj. Pts - 54.42
Kevin Durant - FD 9800 DK 10300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 55.05 DK Proj. Pts - 58.18
Not really letting you in on anything new with these two. They are basically the whole team and if the Thunder are going to keep it close then it's only because they are playing major minutes and dominating the usage rates. Durant is in line for more run on a game-to-game basis but Westbrook has more potential upside because of what his skillset brings to the table. Both are borderline must plays on a slate where you have to get real picky with salary.

Steven Adams - FD 5200 DK 6300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.31 DK Proj. Pts - 27.81
Minutes are the whole story with him. Looked banged up in game two and is dealing with a bunch of little injuries. But he's still out on the court for a vast majority of the game and that's plenty of reason to keep playing him at these prices.

Dion Waiters - FD 3800 DK 3900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 17.8 DK Proj. Pts - 18.98
He's a better DFS fit on these short slates when he's coming off the bench mostly because he doesn't get caught in the OKC scoring shuffle. Running with the second unit opens up more shots for Waiters and the minutes are enough for the price tag.

Consider Festus Ezeli merely as a punt play and Andre Iguodala/ Harrison Barnes as cheap SF types.

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