Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/22/16 Conference Championships

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Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Analysis
Well. Love and Kyrie shot 4-28 from the field, and Cleveland was still within ten points when they brought their starters back in the fourth. The big winner in this game was Biyombo, and he's really the only guy I'm offering a change in guidance on compared to Doug's picks for this series going into this game. I'm not sure we really learned anything else that was dramatically new here, to be honest.

Top Plays
LeBron James - FD 10100 DK 10500
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 53.41 DK Proj. Pts - 55.54
Kyrie Irving - FD 7100 DK 8300
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 38.54 DK Proj. Pts - 40.66
Doug's take:
Even on limited minutes because of the blowout, these two guys were dominant in the second game as well. Lebron put up a triple-double in 34 minutes and didn't have the scoring burden rest on his shoulders. That's a key component for the Cavs' long term viability in this championship run. If they can defer much of the scoring Kyrie's way and use Lebron's wide-ranging skill set to keep opponents on their toes then the Cavs are a real force. Both are in play again and Lebron's a near must play for me considering how much he does in the box score.

Update with news from Saturday's game: Nothing has changed, really. LeBron is a little more expensive, but it doesn't change anything. Kyrie had the worst shooting night of his life, but who cares? You were thrilled with his points per minute production in the previous 2 games, and those look more real to me than this last aberration.

Also considered: Tristan Thompson, who could have been a heck of a lot better in game 3 obviously. Just an off color play for big tournaments.

The card that hasn't been played: Kevin Love. He's played like no minutes in 3 weird games, but if the Cavs decide they want to go small to take some advantage over Biyombo's lack of offensive game there's a chance he goes off here. If Biyombo is going to get 20+ rebounds against the Cavs' "big" lineup, it's not exactly clear what they'd lose by doing so. And you can believe no one is touching him here.

Doug's take:
A note on the Raptors: It's tough to advocate playing any of them at this point. They spread the minutes far and wide in game two to diminishing returns. Lowry looks completely broken. Derozan can't get his mid-range and drive game going at all. And the rest of the team just doesn't have any upside UNLESS they can stick with one unit and stay in the game. That latter piece is the key. For a tournament I think you can pick a Toronto lane and run it. But knowing that ahead of time is too variable to trust in safer formats.

My take: Welp, DeRozan showed that he can put together a heck of a game when the chips fall right. But I'm not counting any chickens just yet - he won't shoot 50% every game, and the 33% increase in shots could be a fluke. I'm more interested in Bismack Biyombo, who completely embarrassed the Cavs on the boards. Still, it has all the trappings of a fluke game, and I'm trusting the three game sample size here.

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder

Analysis
The hay-makers in this series, my god. Westbrook and Durant responded to a game 2 drubbing by pitching simultaneous perfect games. 20-34 from the field, and 21-23 from the line. I'm still speechless. Is it possible that the Thunder had the highest ceiling of any team all along, because they have two guys that can put up games like this, and not just one?

Now, as you can probably guess by now, this actually doesn't change our projections a whole heck of a lot. Minutes go haywire in blowouts, and the guys we figured would be good on a per-minute basis pretty much were. As for the worry about future blowouts, I suspect things will regulate somewhat and we'll get a high-speed thriller instead of a lopsided blowout. I don't blame you if you just want to grab as many pieces from this game as you can, since they're still pretty reasonably priced.

Top Plays
Stephen Curry - FD 9900 DK 10700
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 52.41 DK Proj. Pts - 56.83
Curry's final line looked generally crappy in game 3, but on a per-minute basis it wasn't a whole lot worse than what he'd been doing earlier in the series. If you think he's going to go 2 days listening to hot takes about how he might be the third best player in this series! then you're sorely mistaken. He's still very reasonably priced and should be a favorite to put up 5x+ points per dollar in this game.

Klay Thompson - FD 7400 DK 7900
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 37.31 DK Proj. Pts - 41.42
The minutes are headed in the wrong direction here, but I think we saw what Golden State wants to do with Klay in game 1. 40+ minutes, 40ish fantasy points, and a very active role in both defending Westbrook and on the offensive end. I think he's a cheapish value play for what we could see from him here.

A note on Draymond Green: He's taking a back seat too much in this series for me to want to take a stab on him given the prices of the other superstars in this series. He's just the odd man out.

Russell Westbrook - FD 9800 DK 11100
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 52.49 DK Proj. Pts - 54.42
Kevin Durant - FD 9800 DK 10300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 55.05 DK Proj. Pts - 58.18
Nothing to be said here that I haven't already said, except for some mind-blowing per-minute stats. 107 fantasy points total in 64 minutes. That's, wow. We can expect some regression here, perhaps, but they're still cheaper than they will be the next time we get a crack at them in the future. I'm all in on both once again.

Steven Adams - FD 5200 DK 6400
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.31 DK Proj. Pts - 27.81
Though this one is a little bit more speculative, given the, ahem, injury concerns. Adams missed some time after taking some damage to his delicate parts, and stayed out of the game because it was out of hand. I think we'll see him back in full force for game 4, but I'm proceeding with at least a little caution on a 2 game slate given that we won't have any game time status for him by tomorrow in all likelihood. Still, if this is a knock-down drag 'em out game, Adams will play a huge role and is easily the safest center on a points per dollar basis.

Dion Waiters - FD 3800 DK 4000
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 17.8 DK Proj. Pts - 18.98
Doug wrote this last time around, and it still holds true:
He's a better DFS fit on these short slates when he's coming off the bench mostly because he doesn't get caught in the OKC scoring shuffle. Running with the second unit opens up more shots for Waiters and the minutes are enough for the price tag.

Consider Andre Iguodala/ Harrison Barnes as cheap SF types.

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