Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/24/16
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The pitcher position is a very interesting one tonight as there are a few really great options and a bunch of guys with high upside and very high risk. We will start off with Chris Sale who is taking on the left handed heavy Cleveland Indians. Sale has been absolutely dominant against both lefties and righties in 2016 with a .192 wOBA and 17.2% hard contact rate. While those numbers may not be exactly sustainable, his 2.87 xFIP suggest they are not too far off from his real talent. The Indians will likely trot out around 5 or 6 lefties and Sale has absolutely shut them down this far into 2016 with a .165 xFIP. While this ballpark isn't ideal, Sale has pitched extremely well in U.S. Cellular Field throughout his career. Sale is my top option in both tournaments and cash games on FanDuel.
Price is nearly a must play on DraftKings as he is sitting at an insane price tag of $8900. While he is a lot more expensive on FanDuel, he is still a great option in tournaments. Price has been great as of late with 17 strikeouts over his last 2 starts. In 2015, Price sported a .272 wOBA and 26.4% hard contact rate. This Colorado Rockies team has been horrible on the road throughout the last 4 seasons as evidenced by their .292 wOBA and 26.2% hard contact rate. While this is certainly a hitters ballpark, it does not compare to Coors Field. As mentioned, make sure you get Price in your cash games on DraftKings.
R.A. Dickey has been really bad for the better part of 4 years at this point. Dating back to 2014, Dickey has given up a .348 wOBA and 5.33 xFIP to lefties and has not been much better against righties. McCann on the other hand, has been really good against righties since 2013 with a .362 wOBA and 34.7% hard contact rate. This ballpark sets up extremely well for McCann and the Yankees righties as the right field wall ranges from 314-365 feet, which in the shortest in the league. McCann has been swinging the bat well and will look to keep that going tonight.
Stephen Vogt FD 2300 DK 2700
Opponent - SEA (Karns) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.2 DK - 7.88
As I was about to begin writing this, I looked up and saw Vogt just hit one out against Taijuan Walker. Vogt has hit righties very well since 2014 with a .347 wOBA and .846 OPS. Nathan Karns, however, has given up a .324 wOBA and 37.0% hard contact rate against lefties dating back to 2014. While this ballpark may not be ideal, Vogt is not reliant on power. Vogt is a viable option in both cash games and tournaments.
Chris Davis FD 3800 DK 4300
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @HOU
FD - 14.67 DK - 10.93
Chris Davis and the Orioles are in a terrific spot here against right hander Doug Fister in hitter friendly Minute Maid Park. Fister has struggled mightily against lefties in 2016 with a .389 wOBA and 38.3% hard contact rate. With a 4.72 xFIP, the peripherals suggest those numbers will sustain. Chris Davis on the other hand, has demolished righties dating back to 2011 as evidenced by a .382 wOBA and an insanely high 42.6% hard contact rate. While this ballpark is not as friendly as Camden Yards, it is certainly a hitters ballpark.
Prince Fielder FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - LAA (Chacin) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.77 DK - 9.72
While it is going to be very tempting to just plug in Chris Davis, it is always a good idea to get some exposure to other guys in tournaments. Fielder has been swinging the bat well after starting the season off rough with 9 hits and 4 extra base hits over the last 7 games. Jhoulys Chacin has been very horrible lately as they have given up 14 earned runs in only 3 games and 16 innings. This ballpark sets up extremely well for Fielder as Globe Life Park ranks in the top 10 for left handed power.
Scooter Gennett FD 2700 DK 3300
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.21 DK - 8.3
While Julio Teheran makes for an interesting play tonight, so do the Brewer lefties. Teheran has been atrocious against lefties dating back to 2014 with a .386 wOBA and 34.7% hard contact rate that is backed up by a 5.07 xFIP. Scooter Gennett on the other hand, has been a platoon hitter that has hit righties extremely well for a few years now. Dating back to 2013, Gennett has sported a .346 wOBA backed up by a league average .316 BABIP. Turner Field is certainly not a hitters park, however, it is not a pitchers park either.
Rougned Odor FD 3500 DK 4100
Opponent - LAA (Chacin) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.23 DK - 9.91
Rougned Odor is our second Texas Ranger and the same points that apply to Fielder apply here. Odor has hit righties very well since his Major League debut as evidenced .346 wOBA, .207 ISO and .282 BABIP. That BABIP suggest Odor will actually improve against right handed pitchers. As mentioned, Jhoulys Chacin has struggled against lefties and will struggle in Globe Life Park, a hitter friendly park.
Manny Machado FD 3700 DK 4300
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.98 DK - 10.23
While you may look at this match up and assume it is a negative one for Machado due to Fister being a righty, you would be wrong. Machado has hit righties extremely well since his debut with a .355 wOBA and 36.6% hard contact rate. Doug Fister on the other hand, struggled against righties in 2015 with a .368 wOBA and 34.2% hard contact rate. As mentioned, this ballpark is a slight bump from Camden Yards due to the Crawford boxes in left field.
Jimmy Rollins FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - CLE (Tomlin) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.41 DK - 8.55
Jimmy Rollins is a very consistent option at the shortstop position that lacks such. Rollins has maintained a .327 wOBA against righties this year and has shown a little bit of upside with 2 home runs, 7 doubles and a triple. Josh Tomlin on the other hand, has been over performing and his peripherals suggest his wOBA should be around .382 against left handed hitters. This ballpark sets up very well as it ranked in the top 8 for left handed power last season.
Matt Carpenter FD 4000 DK 4600
Opponent - CHC (Hammel) Park - @STL
FD - 10.35 DK - 7.98
The third base position is absolutely horrible tonight and we are basically picking the lesser of all evils. I am landing on Carpenter due to the fact that he is just so good against righties and Hammel is a slightly above average pitcher. Dating back to last season, Carpenter has sported a .396 wOBA and 38.2% hard contact rate against righties. Jason Hammel, however, has been slightly above average against lefties dating back to 2014 with a .301 wOBA and 28.2% hard contact rate. Carpenter is a good play in all formats by default. However, if you are trying to pay up at pitcher, you will need to pay down at a spot or two.
Luis Valbuena FD 2400 DK 2900
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.75 DK - 7.34
If you are looking to pay down at third, Valbuena is going to be your guy. In 2015, hit righties to a .348 wOBA and hit 20 of his 25 home runs against them. Chris Tillman will be facing off with Valbuena and the Astros and he has had his fair shore of trouble against lefties. Looking back to 2014, Tillman has sported a .327 wOBA and 34.2% hard contact rate supported by a horrible 4.87 xFIP.
Mike Trout FD 4900 DK 5500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.95 DK - 11.65
Trout has been very good lately and kept it going last night against Derek Holland with a double and 2 hits. He will be facing an even worse left hander tonight in Martin Perez. Martin Perez has been horrible against righties throughout his career with a .347 wOBA that is backed up by a 4.87 xFIP. Needless to say, Trout has demolished lefties since hi debut with a .394 wOBA, 38.2% hard contact rate and .402 OBP. This ballpark is a huge upgrade from Angels stadium as it ranked top 12 for right handed power last season. While I am not enthused by this Angels team, Trout is a terrific 1 off play.
Here we have an outfield due to has speed and power against the weak right hander in R.A. Dickey. As mentioned, R.A. Dickey has struggled immensely over the past few years and is certainly nearing the end of his career. I will be looking to target him all year long and this is a great spot to do so in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Both Beltran and Gardner have hit lefties well over the past 3 years with a +.345 wOBA and 33% hard contact rate. While this Yankees team has been disappointing this year as a whole, they will certainly turn it around and end up being one of the better offensive teams against right handers. I am a big proponent of the Yankees stack tonight and these 2 outfielders are my favorite. Ellsbury is certainly worth consideration as well if he is in the lineup.
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