Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/25/16

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Welcome back to another exciting full day of Major League Baseball with Daily Fantasy Sports Rankings. Wednesday gives us an even split with seven early games and eight evening games. If you are looking for pitching, you better get your lineups in the early slate or all day slate as the evening slate is a little dicey on the mound. It could be a great opportunity to go extreme value at pitching and completely load up on hitters tonight. Let's get to it.

 

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PITCHER

Early Slate

Jake Arrieta FD 12300 DK 13100
Opponent - STL (Martinez) Park - @STL
FD - 34.85 DK - 18.48

The Cubs face a tough match up in the cards who are ranked second in team wOBA vs. right handed pitching, however, fading Jake Arrieta could prove to be a huge mistake. He has been incredible this season as he has won eight of his first nine starts with a minuscule 1.29 ERA with a second no hitter under his belt. He has struck out nine batters per nine innings while backing up last years improvement on the ground ball rate above 55%. Look for him to limit the Cards hot offense, therefore, find a way to fit him into your lineups today.

 

Also Consider - Aaron Nola

 

Evening Slate

*Warning - The options at SP on the evening slate are really dicey tonight. Limit your bankroll in cash games and possibly play a few extra GPP lineups where you will be able to load up on hitters*

Hisashi Iwakuma FD 8600 DK 7500
Opponent - OAK (Neal) Park - @SEA
FD - 31.97 DK - 16.49

On a slate with some very untrustworthy options, Iwakuma looks like an ace. He is affordable on both sites and is in a great spot at home in one of the best pitchers parks in the majors. He will face the A's who rank 26th in team wOBA vs. right handed pitching and are walking less than 7% of the time. That is good news for Iwakuma who has struggled with walks(2 or more in four of the last 5 games). He has also struggled with the long ball but the A's are missing Josh Reddick so he will really need to concentrate on avoiding the red hot Khris Davis who has hit a 1/4 of the Athletics total home runs. He also gets the luxury of having one of the hottest offenses in the league providing him some offensive support.

Junior Guerra FD 7200 DK 7400
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ATL

While I prefer Iwakuma and his match up on DraftKings at the same price, I will be taking a shot with Guerra on FanDuel at a big discount. He has made four starts with the Brewers this season going 3-0 with a 3.96 ERA and an even lower 3.80 xFIP. He is coming off his most impressive outing of the year vs. one of the leagues most powerful offenses in the Cubs. He allowed three earned runs but struck out 11 in seven innings pitched. He will now get a very favorable match up vs. the Braves who rank 29th in team wOBA and wRC+ vs. right handed pitching.

CATCHER

Early Slate

Salvador Perez FD 2700 DK 3700
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @MIN
FD - 8.34 DK - 6.52

Going into last night, Perez led all catchers in RBI's(22), was 5th in wOBA(.333), 5th in wRC+(110) and 2nd in slugging percentage(.480). He is currently building on those numbers as he is 2 for 3 with a home run and 2 RBI's vs. Twins as the Royals lead in the 4th inning. He now has a hit in 10 straight and 14 of his last 16 games. Perez has also shown tremendous splits vs. right handed pitching over the last three years(.279 vs. RH pitching and .218 vs. LH pitching). He will face the Twins right hander Tyler Duffey who is coming off an awful start giving up six earned runs and has lost three of his last four games.

 

Evening Slate

Welington Castillo FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - PIT (Locke) Park - @PIT
FD - 9.51 DK - 7.38

Castillo is by far my #1 catcher on the entire slate on Wednesday. He absolutely crushes left handed pitching(.512 wOBA/223 wRC+/5 HR/11 RBI) and gets a very favorable match up vs. Jeff Locke and the Pirates. Locke is 2-3 on the season but the underlying numbers paint a different picture altogether. His ERA sits at 5.00 while his xFIP is very close at 4.82. The issue with Locke this season has been the low K rate(6.2 K/9) and high walk rate(4.60 BB/9) which has resulted in him getting punished with a 13.6% HR/FB rate. Anytime Castillo goes up against a soft throwing lefty, he is a great play.

 

FIRST BASE

Early Slate

Joe Mauer FD 2500 DK 3700
Opponent - KC (Gee) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.51 DK - 8.19

Joe Mauer makes a nice value play at 1B Wednesday, especially on FanDuel as he sits in the mid $2K range. He comes into this game with hits in four of his last five games and has brought his average back over .270 for the season. While it is still lower than his career average of .312, he has been much more patient with a 14.7% walk rate and has also continued to produce runs on an awful offense with a 110 wRC+. The Twins get a decent match up vs. Dillon Gee who started the year out of the bullpen and will be now making his third start. He has gone 1-1 in his two starts giving up 10 hits and four earned runs while striking out 10 and walking four. His xFIP of 4.26 suggests his low 2.90 ERA is due for some regression now that he is starting.

 

Evening Slate

Chris Davis FD 3800 DK 4100
Opponent - HOU (McHugh) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.25 DK - 9.88

It has been another very productive start for Chris Davis in 2016 as he sits Top 10 in the American League in home runs(10) and has a nice 128 wRC+. The power numbers should continue to rise as evidence to his outlying numbers. He is hitting more fly balls(49%) than his career average but has seen a dip in the HR/FB rate(20.8%) with a terrific 40.4% hard hit ball rate. As the weather heats up, more of those balls will start to leave the yard. He has also been more patient than any other point in his career with a 14% walk rate. He will face Colin McHugh who has struggled vs. both RH(.365 wOBA against) and LH(.373 wOBA against) batters and has had issues with the long ball giving up 1.14 home runs per nine innings. This is a great spot for Davis and he makes a great play in both cash games and tournaments.

 

Adrian Gonzalez FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @LAD
FD - 11.5 DK - 8.75

A-Gon makes a nice mid tier cash game option at the 1B position tonight. The projection system has him near the top of the PTS/$ on both sites in a match up with Dan Straily. Gonzalez has seen a dip in the power numbers due to a lower hard hit ball rate(28.7%), but has continued to produce runs with a 105 wRC+. He has also been walking more(11.7%) this season than any other season since 2010 and that matches well against Straily who has struggled with control walking close to 4.5 batters per nine innings. His 4.70 xFIP is also telling us that he may not be pitching near as well as the 2.85 ERA suggests.

 

 

SECOND BASE

Early Slate

Neil Walker FD 2500 DK 3700
Opponent - WSH (Roark) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.21 DK - 7.91

I prefer him on FanDuel where he is safe in all formats but could see making a case for a GPP play on DraftKings as well in the early slate. The move from Pittsburgh to New York has given Walker a huge boost in the power numbers as he has already picked up 11 home in 42 games after hitting just 16 in 151 games last year. The average is still a bit lower(.261) than his career average(.271) but should continue to rise as his BABIP of .282 is over 20 points lower than his career mark. Walker comes in this match up with hits in four straight and five of his last six games. Ride the hot streak vs. Tanner Roark who has struggled with control(3.54 BB/9) and has given up a home run in back to back games.

 

Evening Slate

Brandon Phillips FD 2700 DK 2900
Opponent - LAD (Kazmir) Park - @LAD
FD - 8.86 DK - 7.31

He comes in under $3K on both sites and makes a great value in any format. Now in his 15th season as a major leaguer, Phillips has seen some regression in his power numbers but can still produce with 6 HR, 22 RBI and 19 runs scored. The average has really dropped off(.245) early in the year but is due for some positive regression as he is working with a low .246 BABIP which is close to 50 points lower than his career mark. He will face struggling Scott Kazmir who has given up four or more earned runs in five of his nine starts and has been hit hard giving up 12 home runs this season(2 or more in a game five times).

 

SHORTSTOP

Early Slate

Francisco Lindor FD 3800 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.68 DK - 8.04

While he is over priced on FanDuel and should only be considered in GPP's he is a tremendous value on DraftKings and can be used in all formats. He lacks power upside, which is hard to come by at shortstop anyway, but provides a ton of value in all other areas. He hits in a prime spot in the order(3rd) for the Indians who rank 7th in total runs scored in the majors. In his second season he has seen big improvements with a drop in the K rate and rise in the BB rate. This has resulted in an increase in the OBP(.366) and has seen Lindor record 28 runs scored already while driving in 19 and adding eight stolen bases. He has killed left handed pitching this season to the tune of a .420 average so his match up vs. Quintana(given up a 31% hard hit ball rate) doesn't scare me a bit.
Evening Slate

Manny Machado FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - HOU (McHugh) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.74 DK - 9.25

Machado has blossomed into one of the best fantasy infielders in the game as he is contributing in almost every category right now. He has a + .300 average for the first time since single A back in 2010 and sports an elite .367 OBP which has lead to him scoring 34 runs(tied for 6th in the AL). He has also added 12 home runs and 26 RBI and an incredible 163 wRC+ for the Orioles who sit in 2nd place in the American League East with a +23 run differential. He will face right handed pitcher Colin McHugh who has given up four or more earned runs in five of his six start this season. If the Orioles can get to McHugh early enough, they have a chance to pile up the runs as the Astros used seven pitchers in last night's 13 inning affair. Machado also qualifies at third base on DraftKings.

THIRD BASE

Early Slate

Adrian Beltre FD 3200 DK 4400
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.58 DK - 9.69

Beltre has been a recipient of some bad luck early in the year with a .253 BABIP which falls close to 50 points lower than his career mark which can explain most of his poor .322 wOBA. On the plus side he is striking less than 10% of the time which is his lowest mark of his career. He also continues to rake vs. left handed pitching with a .361 wOBA as compared to just a .308 wOBA vs. right handed pitchers. He will be in a great spot today to add to his power numbers against Hector Santiago who is coming off a game in which he gave up three long balls and has now given up 10 on the season.

 

Evening Slate

Evan Longoria FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @TB
FD - 11.76 DK - 9.04

The price has gotten quite high following his recent 10 game hit streak but on a slate without much high end pitching it won't be a challenge to fit him in your lineups. The average for Longoria isn't where it once was but the power numbers remain in tact. He has picked up 8 HR with a 114 wRC+. He has always been known as a lefty masher with a career .293 average vs. left handed pitching. He gets a cupcake match up vs. Justin Nicolino who has only struck out six batters in five starts while walking 11. Things could get ugly early in the battle for Florida.

OUTFIELD

Early Slate

Mike Trout FD 4900 DK 5300
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.97 DK - 11.67

If you are paying up for one bat in the entire slate today make it Trout. He is the best hitter in the game and is off to a tremendous start with an elite .416 wOBA and 175 wRC+. He sits Top 10 in the AL in almost every statistical category and is just outside when it comes to base stealing with five swipes. He is worth every penny as he offers a very high floor and one of the biggest upsides of any player in baseball.

Cameron Maybin FD 3200 DK 3400
Opponent - PHI (Nola) Park - @DET
FD - 7.98 DK - 6.71

After being called up by the Tigers last week, Cameron Maybin has produced a hit in each of his first seven games. He was moved to the leadoff spot Tuesday night where he extended that streak to eight with two hits and two runs scored. He makes a great value play in the outfield at his current price point, especially if he remains in the leadoff spot on Wednesday afternoon.

 

Evening Slate

Carlos Gonzalez FD 2900 DK 3500
Opponent - BOS (Wright) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.25 DK - 8.76

His struggles over the past couple of weeks have pushed his salary down to the point where he is a terrific value on both sites. He is still hitting .271 on the season but with a very poor .317 wOBA and a lack of power with only five home runs and 15 driven in. He hits in the heart of the Rockies order in a match up vs. Steven Wright and the Red Sox in the hitter friendly Fenway Park in a game with the highest total in the evening slate. I tend to agree with the projection system on this one.

 

 

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