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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/27/16
Welcome back to another night of daily fantasy baseball with DFSR. Friday brings us just one afternoon game putting the emphasis squarely on the 14 games going off in the evening. It is going to be a fun slate as we have some great high end pitching options mixed in with some value options and some great spots for offense in hitters parks like Coors Field, Chase Field, Miller Park, and Globe Life Park in Arlington. Get get it going!
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PITCHER
Felix Hernandez FD 11000 DK 11900
Opponent - MIN (Dean) Park - @SEA
FD - 43.89 DK - 25.88
The West Division leading Mariners will open a series at home vs. the Twins on Friday night and look to build on their two game winning streak. They will open the series with their ace King Felix who has been good but not dominant to start the season. He has seen a decline in his fastball velocity(90 mph) which has resulted in a strikeout rate one batter per nine innings lower than last season. The good news is he is still getting it done with an above average ground ball percentage which has helped produce a 2.21 ERA. He will be in a good spot to add to his win total vs. the Twins who rank 24th in team wOBA(.303) while striking out over 23% of the time. He is a safe play in any format tonight.
Update: the line on the Seattle game's moved in the wrong way since last night. Max Scherzer is now projecting out slightly higher than King Felix.
Adam Conley FD 8000 DK 7500
Opponent - ATL (Perez) Park - @ATL
FD - 38.31 DK - 22.29
The projection system has Adam Conley as the top PTS/$ play on both sites tonight. I will be limiting my exposure to GPP's with him tonight as he has been inconsistent so far in 2016. He has struggled with control(coming off a 7 BB outing) but has seen an increase in his K rate(8.50) from last season and has limited the long ball. He will get a juicy matchup on Friday vs. the Braves who have scored the least runs in the majors and rank dead last in team wOBA(.258) vs. left handed pitching while striking out 23.5% of the time.
Masahiro Tanaka FD 9900 DK 10400
Opponent - TB (Archer) Park - @TB
FD - 39.72 DK - 23.12
Tanaka has been impressive at the top of the Yankee rotation in 2016 but has been the product of some bad luck thus limiting his win total. He will be in a good spot on Friday night as he gets a start vs. the Tampa Bay Rays in pitcher friendly Tropicana Field. He faced the Rays at Yankee Stadium back in April going seven innings, limiting the Rays to five hits and two earned runs while striking out seven and walking just one batter. He is using his slider more this year which has helped him drop his hard hit ball rate below 30%. Look for Tanaka to rack up the strikeouts vs. the Rays as they K 2nd most(25.7%) of any team vs. right handed pitching.
CATCHER
Buster Posey FD 4000 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 13.58 DK - 10.47
While we'd much rather target Posey against a lefty (looking forward to tomorrow already!) I'm fine with the matchup here. The ballpark more than plays for power (understatement) and Posey improved his platoon split last season against RHP with a .362 wOBA. He will be facing Tyler Chatwood who is another installment of a young Rockies pitcher who is great away from Coors but disastrous at home. In 23 innings at Coors this year he has given up a .414 wOBA against and terrible 6.65 ERA. Posey is worth every dollar tonight.
Derek Norris FD 2200 DK 3100
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.97 DK - 7.74
If you aren't paying up for Posey tonight I would advise punting the position and loading up elsewhere. Norris makes a great choice as one of the projection systems top overall PTS/$ players at the catcher position. His price is up a bit on DraftKings but down on FanDuel as he will be in a great spot vs. lefty Robbie Ray. Norris has excellent career splits vs. left handed pitching(.295 avg) and is due for some positive regression as he is operating with a very low .212 BABIP which is 84 points below his career mark.
FIRST BASE
Paul Goldschmidt FD 4000 DK 5500
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @ARI
FD - 15.6 DK - 12.16
While most people are going to be on the red hot David Ortiz, Goldy makes a terrific pivot with possible low ownership on Friday night. The projection system actually likes him over Ortiz on a PTS/$ basis and for good reason as Goldy has absolutely destroyed left handed pitching in his career to the tune of a .426 wOBA and 169 wRC+. He will face Christian Friedrich who will be making his third start of the season and is due to get blown up as he has walked nine batters in his first two starts but has limited the opposition to just three earned runs. His 6.21 xFIP is directly telling us that the low 2.89 ERA isn't here to stay. Load up on the power bats in the middle of the D Backs order tonight.
Joey Votto FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 14.38 DK - 10.98
It has been a struggle for Votto to open the 2016 season as he is hitting just over the Mendosa Line but there are some signs he may be breaking out real soon. His BABIP of .257 is very close to 100 points lower than his career mark and has since a big increase in his hard hit ball rate(45.9%). What does all this mean? He is hitting the ball hard but right to the fielders, for the most part. Once he start limiting the K's and getting back to being patient his overall numbers will start to improve. He will get a favorable matchup vs. Zach Davies who has K upside but has been a fly ball pitcher and given up three long balls in his last two starts. Take advantage of the low price as it won't last long.
SECOND BASE
Jason Kipnis FD 3600 DK 4800
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.64 DK - 9.4
The Indians come into this game having won three straight and eight of their last 11 games in large part to their 9th ranked offense that has scored 214 runs this season. Kipnis has played a big role as he has heated up in May with a .334 wOBA and 112 wRC+ with 14 RBI and 13 runs scored. The speed has fallen off limiting his upside for GPP's but he makes an excellent cash game play at a discount from the top options.
Brandon Phillips FD 2600 DK 3500
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.93 DK - 9.02
If saving at second base is your thing it will be hard to pass up the value with Brandon Phillips who ranks as the top option on a PTS/$ basis tonight. His average is below his career marks but the low BABIP suggests he is due for some positive regression in that area. It is also positive to see his ISO sitting at .180 as he has six home runs and has already driven in 22 runs. He will face Zach Davies who is giving up a 41% hard hit ball rate and as mentioned with Votto has given up three long balls in his last two starts.
Strongly consider Joe Panik
SHORTSTOP
Manny Machado FD 4100 DK 4800
Opponent - CLE (Bauer) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.55 DK - 9.93
If you have made it to shortstop and have some money to spend, Machado is one of the top projected scoring shortstops tonight and comes a discount from the top options. His price has seen a decrease lately as he struggled through a cold stretch for nearly a week and a half. The value is hard pass up on one of the most consistent players in the middle infield. He provides a high floor as well as some big upside with 18 multi hit games already in 2016 with 13 HR, 27 RBI and 35 runs scored.
Adeiny Hechavarria FD 2400 DK 2600
Opponent - ATL (Perez) Park - @ATL
FD - 8.46 DK - 6.92
He is one of the top value plays at SS this evening on a PTS/$ basis and has picked up the offense with Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton out of the lineup. Hechavarria has put together a four game hit streak and was moved to the leadoff spot yesterday where he delivered three hits including a home run, 2 RBI and two runs scored. If he leads off once again on Friday it will be hard to pass up the value as a punt play.
THIRD BASE
Matt Duffy FD 3300 DK 4700
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 12.16 DK - 9.99
While he makes a great play on both sites in a top matchup in Coors, his best value is on FanDuel where he is the 14th ranked third basemen as compared to the 4th on DraftKings. He comes in to this game with a six game hit streak including multi hit efforts in two of his last three. While his average isn't where it was in his breakout season in 2015 he has struggled with a low .277 BABIP which is close to 60 points lower than either of the last two seasons. He hits in a prime spot in the lineup vs. Tyler Chatwood, who I mentioned earlier, really struggles at home.
Adrian Beltre FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.25 DK - 8.67
In the same price range as Duffy comes Adrian Beltre who has more power upside in a hitters park. Even in his 19th season as a pro he is still putting up power numbers with seven home runs and 31 RBI and an impressive .180 ISO early in the season. He has always had positive splits vs. left handed pitching and this season is no different as he is running a .374 wOBA and 133 wRC+ vs. southpaws. He will face Jon Niese tonight who has really struggled with the long ball this year giving up multiple HR's in four of his nine starts and 11 overall.
OUTFIELD
Jay Bruce FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.44 DK - 9.65
You are probably starting to see a pattern by now that the projection system loves picking Zach Davies tonight. I mentioned earlier with Votto and Phillips that he has struggled with control(3.75 BB/9) and has been punished with 3 HR against in his last two starts. Left handed batters have thrived vs. Davies this year with a ridiculous .450 wOBA and 41% hard hit ball rate. Bruce is having his best start to the season since 2013 with a .350 wOBA, 117 wRC+, and impressive .250 ISO. He hits right behind Votto and Phillips in the lineup and is essential in the Reds stack Friday night.
Matt Kemp FD 2500 DK 4100
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.79 DK - 9.27
He is a bit over priced on DraftKings but makes an elite value play on FanDuel as the projection system has him as the top PTS/$ play on Friday night. It has been a frustrating start for the Padres outfielder who is hitting just .222 on the year and has shown almost no patience at all(2% BB rate). Despite the low average the power numbers are up and anytime he plays away from Petco, especially against a left handed pitcher, you need to take advantage. He gets a plus matchup in Chase Field tonight vs. Robbie Ray who has struggled vs. right handed batters giving up a .364 wOBA against and 41% hard hit ball rate.
Michael Bourn FD 2200 DK 3200
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.59 DK - 8.14
He started the year in the Jays farm system and with no room for playing time quickly made his way to the D Backs who wasted no time getting him up to the big leagues. He has now played seven games, with the majority near the top of the lineup, and has hits in four including three multi hit efforts and two stolen bases. If he continues to hit in front of Goldschmidt he will provide tremendous value until the price starts to rise.
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image sources
- Felix Hernandez: By Mike Tigas on Flickr (Original version)UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
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No doubt Posey pounds on LHP, but Chatwood is a righty.
Unlikely that Hechavarria will be at top of lineup with platoon advantage, unless Yelich and Staton are both out again. Same goes for Bourn
Sorry without platoon advantage
I don’t know what you guys are reading about but last I checked chat wood was a righty ?? This has him as a lefty and posey mashing lefties……. What’s up with that??
Yup. Simple error. I corrected. When you write this much about MLB, things get crossed up in your head from time to time. The underlying projection was correct, just the write up erred. I fixed. Thanks for looking out!
Coors, Roger’s Centre and Chase Field? This should be fun.
Tonight looks like it’s going to be nuts with the runs.
Already set numerous lineups however it will be interesting to see how the weather plays out as it looks like we already may have issues in Colorado, KC, etc…
FD value or under owned plays-
3B- Hill- 2200- value
OF- Rua- 2400- value
C- Vogt- 2500- value
C- Realmuto- 2500- value
2B- Gosselin- 2100-punt play
2B-D’Arnaud- 2600 -value
3B- Suarez-2400- value punt
SS- Iglesias-2200- value punt
SS- Ahmed-2300 value punt
SS- Semien-2600 value
OF- Owings- 2100 value
OF- Gutierrez-2300- value
OF- Merrifield-2600- value
OF- Drury-2600 value
OF-Upton jr- 2700 value
OF-Hamilton-2700-value
OF-Duvall-2900 value
OF-Orlando-2900
OF-Dyson-3000
OF-Blanco- 3000
OF- Crisp-3100
Of this list I like Hamilton (if in 2-hole) and the Arizona guys if they can creep to top of lineup
Just FYI u wrote about Tyler Chatman being left handed in ur Posey recommendation.
The message boards have went way down since baseball started from you guys. During the basketball season Doug would chime in on just about everything and it was great . I am not seeing the same here ? Is the reason there’s to many sports at once ? I’m sure you guys are busy but I know a few of us on here are getting killed in baseball and the optimal lineup has not come close for me. The last week I have not been in the top 75 % with it
@Derek Macha Ya that was my bad. For some reason late last night I had it in my head he was LH but was wrong. It was corrected this am. I won’t let it happen again. More coffee at night. LOL
@Nicholas Ganni I am writing the picks articles, pitchers breakdown and stacks articles twice a week and will be attempting to stay more active on the message boards EVERY day to answer any questions. Some days are busier than others so please don’t think we are just ignoring you followers. You guys are the reason I do this job and the conversations through the day make it a fun experience.
I have mentioned it before but wanted to re hash for anyone that is new to the message board and/or optimizer. Here is a strategy I have been using recently with some success.
First off, I don’t ever just hit optimize and use that lineup. For me, I want to be able to have my own input on my lineups. Here is what I do for cash games:
1. Identify my two favorites pitchers for the evening and two or three core hitters I want in my lineups. I will lock these guys on my list of players and set the lineups to 25 and optimize.
2. I will go through the lineups and see the guys the system is filling in around my core. I try to identify the guys who are showing up in a majority of the lineups and decide if I am comfortable with them. If not, I X them out and try again. I repeat the process until I am fully comfortable with the optimal lineup.
This gives you the ability to have an impact on your lineups when the optimized lineup isn’t hitting. Never just trust one opinion on a player. Look at things from different angles and come up wit your own list of players that fit your comfort level. Not only will you start to have more success but you will also have more fun building lineups. It may be just me but the building process is by far the best part of DFS for me.
And that is my 2 Cents for the day! Back to the Pitcher Breakdown. Stay tuned!
Smart minds think alike Chris . I’ve been doing better using that strategy
Anybody taking a chance on Urias tonight? I figured why not? I’m getting killed lately anyway.
it’s a fair point. And considering it is the first time they are seeing him, he might have a significant advantage. Outside of Cespedes, what other power do they have?
Only as an upside play. I’d be shocked if his pitch count went north of 90
I do not mind it. Only due to the crazy offensive options tonight that will likely put up a ton of runs.
@Steve I like the play for GPP for sure. Mets rank 21st in wOBA against LW pitchers while striking out 27% of the time. Urias has been very impressive in AAA with a 1.10 ERA and 9.4 K/9.
I am Steve. There is actually some good value on the board at pitcher. I love Archer’s salary on DK. Urias is very highly touted, so why not? None of the 10K+ guys are locks for 25+ pts today.
Chris if you have a moment would you be so kind to share some other outfielders you may target tonight?
Thanks!
@JC
Desmond vs. Niese
Braun vs. Lamb
Span vs. RH Tyler Chatwood
JD Martinez vs. Manaea
A few on my list right now
My sleeper at Catcher tonight is Bobby Wilson (TEX) Guy kills Lefties this year .500 AVG (5 for 10) very cheap at a position very slim tonight. Also love Ryan Rua also from TEX same scenario as Wilson kills lefties this year .424 AVG ( 14 for 33)
I don’t mind either of those guys, however, make sure you are looking at sample sizes MUCH larger than 10 or even 33 at-bats.
Thoughts on Duffy as SP2? thx..
He is likely on a pitch count around 80 or so. I would stay away.
I will be around all day. Feel free to leave a question and I will answer it for sure!
-Austyn
What do you think of DK Tourney LU?
Shoemaker
Urias
Posey
Votto
Panik
Beltre
Machado
Braun
Bruce
Dickerson
If you guys have ideas on how I can change let me know
I am not a fan of Shoemaker personally. On the other hand, I think you have to get more Coors exposure if you are paying down at pitcher
Who would you suggest instead? I like Conley vs braves and I would change up for that
I definitely prefer both Urias and Conley.
Now I got
Conley
Urias
Posey
Goldschmidt
Panik
Duffy
Hechavarria
Span
Bourn
Nieuwenhuis
Better?
Thoughts on Lester for cash game?
As Chris said above, you can’t let the optimizer do all the work for you. I have a process similar to his. I decide on most of my core players and then check to see what the optimizer to see what it says about them. I don’t necessarily eliminate players that the optimizer doesn’t like if I have other indicators that they are good plays. The optimizer is particularly helpful when I can’t fill a slot, many times because my budget is short, and I search for players with the most points per dollar. That said, I haven’t been doing great since employing the optimizer, I think it may because so many players just aren’t performing as expected. On another note, so many Cincinnati players are appealing today, but I just eliminated them from my lineup. That seems like the game most likely not to be played today.
Why does the cincy game seem most likely not to be played today?
Cincy game is in doomed stadium
Domed, although with Peralta as Milwaukee’s ace, the stadium can be considered doomed
Zac, i definitely like that a lot more
Oopsm just realized Cincy is in a dome. Rearranging lineup again.
What games are people completely staying away from due to weather today? KC seems like the most obvious, thoughts?
Thanks!
That looks like the only one I think
Weather looking ok in Washington?
Looks like storms pop up later game. I’m playing Scherzer on FD
Titty city??
Any update on KC game?
I don’t know about you guys but the weekends are a money dump for me. Friday & Saturday I decompress and unleash a shit load of lineups and get murdered lol. I do well during the work week but the weekend comes and I’m dead money! I should have the discipline to stay away but who doesn’t need the action lol? Just curious if all of you get murdered on the weekend also? I can only assume there is more bloody water so the sharks eat…? Either way I get killed on the days I get to enjoy beers – as Metallica would say SAD BUT TRUE!
In continuation still alot baseball left to play but right now I’m just hoping to stop the bleeding…
20+ GPP LINEUPS TOMORROW FTW LOL
Thankfully my long history of poker and sports wagering has taught me bankroll management- back at the $2-10 tourneys manana!