Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/29/16

 

-Austyn Varney @VarneyDFS

Welcome to Sunday baseball! We have a full 15 game slate on our hands with a couple aces, a ton of average pitchers and a few gas cans. Make sure to check out our other articles as well as they will touch on more pitching options, some tournament stacks and any weather concerns. I will be copying and pasting some write-ups from yesterday as Pelfrey was the assumed starter.

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PITCHER

Clayton Kershaw FD 13300 DK 13900
Opponent - NYM (Colon) Park - @NYM
FD - 58.64 DK - 35.84

As I stated last week when Kershaw faced the Reds, he is a great play no matter the situation. However, he is an a great situation here against the Mets, a team that hits righties much better than they do left handers. Thus far into 2016, the Mets have been in the bottom third against lefties with a .302 wOBA and .691 OPS. While it goes unmentioned, Kershaw is the best pitcher in the league as evidenced by his .242 wOBA and 2.01 xFIP over the last 4 seasons. While this ballpark is no Pitcher's haven, it still favors pitchers over hitters. While I fully expect Kershaw to hold a high ownership, he is worth it in cash games and tournaments. I do not recommend fading him in any format.

Taijuan Walker FD 9000 DK 9300
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @SEA
FD - 35.27 DK - 19.64

On FanDuel, there is a good chance I end up plugging Kershaw into every single lineup. However, on DraftKings, you are forced to roster 2 pitchers. Walker is my second favorite option of the night taking on the Twins in Safeco Field. Walker has pitched extremely well to begin the season with a 3.32 xFIP and 8.46 K/9. To add on, he has sported a 15.3% HR/FB rate which suggests he has been getting a bit unlucky. He takes on the Minnesota Twins, a team that has ranked 24th in the league against righties with a .304 wOBA and 90 wRC+. While it is very difficult to feel comfortable with Walker, he is as close as you will get to a cash game play on this slate outside of Kershaw.

Consider - Rich Hill, Julio Teheran, Stephen Strasburg

CATCHER

Buster Posey FD 4100 DK 5200
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @COL
FD - 16.51 DK - 12.72

Buster Posey at Coors Field against a lefty - it probably seems obvious, but it has to be mentioned. Posey is batting .314 in the last two seasons against southpaws, including a .503 SLG % and a .371 wOBA. On the other hand, Chris Rusin has been going back-and-forth between starting and the bullpen in 2016. The lefty has an ERA close to five at home in 2016 as well as allowing a .285 BAA against right handed hitters.

Stephen Vogt FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @OAK
FD - 9.98 DK - 7.72

Stephen Vogt sees Mike Pelfrey Sunday afternoon, the fantasy pitcher we all love to pick on. Before last night's game, Vogt was hitting close to .300 with a slugging percentage of .458 with one homer and five RBI's. Pelfrey has given up two homers in each of his last two starts, including six days ago against the Phillies in which he surrendered 11 hits and four runs over six innings. The match up, form, and price all look good for Vogt.

Consider - Francisco Cervelli

 

FIRST BASE

Chris Carter FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.83 DK - 8.88

It seems like Chris Carter has been in play all week and has consistently disappointed. I look for Carter to turn that around here against the left hander Brandon Finnegan in Miller Park. Finnegan has been very inconsistent this year and has struggled against righties with a 4.89 xFIP and 14 home runs allowed in only 84 innings. Chris Carter on the other hand, has hit lefties well dating back to 2015 with a .342 wOBA and 41.5% hard contact rate. When you combine the power of Carter and the home run issues that Finnegan possesses, you get a great recipe for a long ball in hitter friendly Miller Park.

Adam Lind FD 2600 DK 3800
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.98 DK - 8.43

Adam Lind finally showed his upside last time out with 2 home runs and 6 RBI's. While he has certainly struggled this year, we need to trust the 5 year sample size. Over the past 5 seasons, Lind has demolished righties with a .374 wOBA, 16% HR/FB rate and 39.3% hard contact rate. Ricky Nolasco, however, has steeply declined over the past couple years against lefties as evidenced by his 4.38 xFIP and 4.82 SIERA. While this ballpark is far from ideal, it is the same one that he has hit 4 of his 5 home runs this season. Lind is a great option if you need some savings and want to roster Kershaw.

Consider - Chris Davis, Brandon Belt

 

SECOND BASE

Joe Panik FD 3400 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @COL
FD - 13.37 DK - 10.72

Back to Colorado because...well, it's Colorado with Rusin on the mound. Joe Panik average is on the rise after a .308 week at the dish thanks to a very good series against the Cubs. Our projection system loves Panik and pairing his recent success with Coors Field against Rusin could make the second baseman an important piece of a Giants stack.

Jonathan Schoop FD 3300 DK 4700
Opponent - CLE (Clevinger) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.34 DK - 8.05

Schoop has been bouncing around the batting order this week as he has seen 2nd as well as 7th a few times. While I much prefer him in the 2 hole, he is a fantastic tournament play either way. Clevinger has been atrocious against righties throughout the minors and has already flashed those issues in the majors with a .531 wOBA. Schoop is one of the more powerful second baseman in the league as evident by his 8 home runs this season. Schoop was a reverse splits hitter last year as he sported a .375 wOBA against righties compared to a .279 against southpaws. While Progressive Field is not a hitters haven, it is a neutral power park for righties. Make sure to give Schoop a look if you are unable to afford Cano or Panik.

Consider - Robinson Cano, Jason Kipnis

 

SHORTSTOP

Brandon Crawford FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @COL
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.91

So, I have a hunch how the stack article tomorrow is going. Let's just quickly rattle off Crawford's stats over the last seven games and skip the repetition of the pitching/ballpark. During that span, Crawford is hitting .333, slugging .542, and totaled six RBI. He has been hitting in bunches, recording five multi-hit games in his last nine outings.

Jordy Mercer FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.1 DK - 7.98

Jordy Mercer has historically been a lefty crusher and while that hasn't come to fruition just yet, we can expect his numbers to start normalizing. In 2015, Mercer sported a .337 wOBA with a 34.2% hard contact rate against southpaws. Martin Perez on the other hand, has struggled against righties over the course of his 4 year career with a .332 wOBA and 4.18 SIERA. This ballpark sets up extremely well for Mercer as he will be going from one of the worst in PNC to one of the best in Globe Life. Mercer is a great play in all formats, especially on FanDuel where he is a lot cheaper than the other good options.

Consider - Marcus Semien

 

THIRD BASE

David Freese FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.14 DK - 9.43

Here is another Pirate in David Freese against the previously mentioned left hander Martin Perez. Freese is another guy that historically mashed lefties as evidenced by a career .362 wOBA and 34.6% hard contact rate. On the same page as Mercer, Freese will be receiving a huge ballpark bump with Globe Life being ranked in the top 10 for right handed power. Freese gives you a ton of upside at a low price that will help you pay up for Kershaw.

Matt Duffy FD 3100 DK 4600
Opponent - COL (Rusin) Park - @COL
FD - 13.41 DK - 11.09

Giants! Giants! Help us....Did you get the Little Giants reference, or did I just show my age? Duffy is part of the San Francisco contingent that our projection system is simply all over. Duffy has been scalding the ball as of late as he rode a six game hitting streak into last night. He looks to be settling into his second full season in the bigs and for many of the reasons listed in the Posey/Panik/Crawford write ups, he warrants plenty of consideration on this late.

Consider - Aaron Hill, Chris Coghlan

 

OUTFIELD

Bryce Harper FD 3800 DK 5000
Opponent - STL (Wacha) Park - @WSH
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.51

Harper hit another home run yesterday after being in the article. He has broken out of his slump in a big way with 2 home runs in his last 3. Harper is severely under-priced on FanDuel at $3800 and I will be doing whatever I can to get him and Kershaw in my lineup. While Wacha is certainly an above average pitcher, Harper hits righties to a degree that overpowers any pitcher that isn't super elite. I expect Harper to go way under owned and gives you as much upside as anyone on the slate. I would however, limit my exposure to tournaments on DraftKings as he is $5000.

Khris Davis FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.22 DK - 8.62

Woo! another chance to go against Mike Pelfrey in the outfield. Let's start with Khris Davis who has a hit in three of his last 4 games and is slugging at a .649 clip over the last two weeks. Oh, and Davis demolishes righties with 30 homers in just over 450 plate appearances as well as an .821 OPS and .349 wOBA. For good reason, the fantasy community loves to play guys against Pelfrey so I expect Davis' ownership to be up on Sunday.

Andrew McCutchen FD 4400 DK 4800
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 15.45 DK - 12.04

Here is another Pirate in Andrew McCutchen. If you take Mercer and Freese, combine them and multiply by 3 you basically get McCutchen against lefties. In 2015, McCutchen sported a .397 wOBA and 38.1% hard contact rate against lefties. As previously mentioned, Martin Perez has struggled against righties and takes on a whole bunch of them in a very hitter friendly ballpark. McCutchen is a solid option in both tournaments and cash games, however, it is going to be very difficult to fit him with Kershaw.

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