Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/30/16

 

- Austyn Varney @VarneyDFS

Welcome to Memorial Day baseball! We have a full 15 game slate on our hands with a couple decent pitching options and a whole bunch of pitchers in very tough spots. Make sure to check out our other articles as well as they will touch on some more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise.

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PITCHER

Jeff Samardzija FD 10700 DK 12200
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ATL
FD - 33.47 DK - 18.12

The pitching today is absolutely atrocious and we are looking to find the lesser of all evils. My favorite of all is definitely Jeff "Shark" Samardzija. The Shark has pitched extremely well to begin the year with a .268 wOBA and 27.2% hard contact rate. The great production is backed up by a 3.42 xFIP, 3.63 SIERA and 8.3% HR/FB rate. While Samardzija had a horrible year in 2015, his SIERA and xFIP suggest he has turned it around completely with velocity and movement. He will be taking on an Atlanta Braves team that has been absolutely horrible in 2016. So far, the Braves have sported a .284 wOBA and 74 wRC+ against righties. Samardzija is far and away my top option and I will likely chalk him into most of my cash game and tournament lineups. While he is expensive, he has a lot more safety and upside than anyone else on the board.

Ian Kennedy FD 8100 DK 9800
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @KC
FD - 34.88 DK - 19.82

Ian Kennedy is a very tough guy to target as he has struggled mightily over the past few years with the long ball and maintaining control. However, he has been pitching very well this season with the Royals in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium. Kennedy has sported a 3.89 SIERA, .292 wOBA and 24.8% hard contact rate through April and May. His opponent, the Tampa Bay rays have struggled against right handers this season as evidenced by a 98 wRC+ and collective strikeout rate of 25.8%, the second highest in the league. This stadium sets up very nicely for Kennedy as it ranked in the top 5 in both SIERA and K% in 2015. That is due to the lack of foul territory, the deep fences and the low elevation. Kennedy is a great tournament play and is worthy of cash game consideration on 2 pitcher sites.

Consider - Tanner Roark, Jose Quintana

CATCHER

Evan Gattis FD 3200 DK 4500
Opponent - ARI (Escobar) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.83 DK - 9.05

The Houston Astros are in a great spot today against Edwin Escobar, a left handed pitcher that has struggled against righties throughout his career. Dating back to 2009, Escobar has given up a 1.07 HR/9 and 4.82 xFIP against righties. Evan Gattis on the contrary, has hit lefties extremely well over his major league career with a .336 wOBA and 37.7% hard contact rate. Gattis will likely be hitting 4th and makes for a great play in both tournaments and cash games. However, I do prefer him on FanDuel where he is much more affordable.

Brian McCann FD 2900 DK 3200
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.96 DK - 7.49

McCann comes into this game with a depressed price tag around the industry and a very good chance of going yard. While Marco Estrada is having the best year of his young career, he has not been great with 18 earned runs and 6 home runs in 9 games played. He has also sported a below average 1.29 HR/9 against lefties and his peripherals support it. Brian McCann on the other hand, has always hit righties well and this year has been no exception as he has sported a .350 wOBA and 35.5% hard contact rate. This ballpark sets up well for McCann as it ranked in the top 5 last year for power.

Consider - Francisco Cervelli
 

FIRST BASE

Joey Votto FD 4000 DK 4700
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 14.37 DK - 10.93

Votto had one of his rare disappointing games yesterday as he went 0-fer in a good match up. Make sure you do not stay away from him again due to the sole fact that he let you down yesterday. That is a surefire way to lose at DFS in general. On to today, Votto will be taking on Chad Bettis in Coors Field in a game with an 11 over/under. Chad Bettis has been a below average pitcher throughout his career as evidenced by his .357 wOBA. However, he has been much worse at Coors Field with a career .397 combined wOBA. Every batter is in play in Coors Field as always and Joey Votto is the best player on the Reds. He has obliterated righties dating back to 2013 with a .423 wOBA and insanely high hard contact rate of 43.6%. I find it very hard to fade Votto today in both cash games and tournaments.

Brandon Moss FD 2900 DK 3800
Opponent - MIL (Guerra) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.82

This one is more of a tournament play as Joey Votto is basically a lock and load in cash games. Moss and the Cardinals will be taking on Junior Guerra, a right hander that has pitched quite well since being called up. However, I am not buying it at all. Guerra has been in the minors for 9 years and I find it incredibly hard to believe he is going to just burst onto the scene and dominate both righties and lefties. Brandon Moss, however, has mashed righties over the course of his career with a .362 wOBA and 38.2% hard contact rate. While I will likely limit my exposure to tournaments, I love him in that format as he brings unquestioned upside at a low price point.

Consider - Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Adams

 

SECOND BASE

Jose Altuve FD 3800 DK 5500
Opponent - ARI (Escobar) Park - @ARI
FD - 13.12 DK - 11.56

Here is our second Houston Astro and you should be prepared for another one to start off next position as well. Altuve is easily one of the best hitters against lefties in the league as evidenced by his .432 wOBA over the last 2 seasons. While it is obvious just how good of a hitter he is, he is also one of the best base stealers in the game as he racked up 38 last year and 56 in 2014. While we do not have any stats on how Escobar is at holding runners, we know that both Diamondbacks catchers are poor throwers. This ballpark sets up well for Altuve as well as it ranked second overall last year in terms of hitting.

Brandon Phillips FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.84

Phillips is in play here due to the sole fact that he is in Coors Field taking on a lackluster pitcher in Chad Bettis. While Phillips is certainly on the downside of his career, he has still shown some pop with 6 home runs and 9 doubles on the year. As previously mentioned, Bettis has struggled in Coors Field over the course of his career with a .397 wOBA. Phillips provides both upside and safety at a very reasonable price. However, I certainly prefer Altuve if you have the available salary and are comfortable with your roster.

Consider - Kolten Wong

 

SHORTSTOP

Carlos Correa FD 3700 DK 4700
Opponent - ARI (Escobar) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.53 DK - 10.27

You shouldn't be surprised to see another Houston Astro here as I warned you a few paragraphs ago. Correa comes in as our third bat from this team and he just might be my favorite. Correa has demolished lefties since his major league debut with a .371 wOBA and 34.2% hard contact rate. While the Astros have disappointed plenty of times this season, this match up with the Diamondbacks in Chase Field might just turn it all around.

Jordy Mercer FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.59

Jordy Mercer was in the picks article yesterday and came through with a double and run scored against a left hander. He will face off with another one here in Justin Nicolino that has struggled mightily against both left and right handers. Thus far into 2016, Nicolino has struggled against righties with a .323 wOBA and a much worse 5.76 SIERA. To add on, he has exhibited a putrid K/9 rate of 2.91 which is way too low, even for a pitch-to-contact pitcher. All in all, the statistics point to Nicolino struggling and Mercer having a great game.

Consider - Brad Miller, Aledmys Diaz

 

THIRD BASE

David Freese FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @MIA
FD - 11.53 DK - 8.96

We have back-to-back Pirates in the write up just like yesterday, and it worked out well yesterday. I am expecting more of the same today as the Pirates are facing a lefty that is worse, as I mentioned. Freese has hit lefties extremely well over the course of his career with a .364 wOBA and a 36.8% hard contact rate. While this ballpark isn't ideal, Freese is not reliant on power to produce.

Eugenio Suarez FD 2700 DK 4200
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 10.22 DK - 8.19

There is not too much more to say about these Reds bats other than they are facing a below average pitcher in Coors field. While Eugenio Suarez has struggled mightily over the past few weeks, we need to trust the larger sample size against righties. Dating back to 2014, Suarez has sported a .362 wOBA against righties with a 34.1% hard contact rate. Make sure you get some exposure to this game in both your cash games and tournaments.

Consider - Matt Carpenter, Nolan Arenado

 

OUTFIELD

Andrew McCutchen FD 4200 DK 4800
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @MIA
FD - 14.68 DK - 11.45
Starling Marte FD 4100 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @MIA
FD - 12.64 DK - 10.83

Starting off in the outfield we have a duo of McCutchen and Marte. Both of these guys hit lefties extremely well and I am sure you have noticed a trend in this article with these Pirates bats. In 2015, both McCutchen and Marte demolished lefties with wOBA's over .375 and a combined hard contact rate of 38.2%, which is insanely high. As previously mentioned, Justin Nicolino strikes out the least amount of batters in the league and that will not fare well against a Pirates team that is lethal when making contact. Both of these guys are tremendous plays in all formats.

Giancarlo Stanton FD 3500 DK 4900
Opponent - PIT (Locke) Park - @MIA
FD - 13.12 DK - 9.88

Stanton against a lefty? Yes please. No matter the lefty, you should always consider Stanton when he is taking on a southpaw. Dating back to 2015, Stanton has obliterated lefties to the tune of a .472 wOBA and a rediculous hard contact rate of 51.3%, the best in the league, by far. Jeff Locke is not someone to be afraid of as he has been bad against righties over the last 3 seasons with a .341 wOBA and 4.28 SIERA. While this is a tough ballpark, Stanton has no problem getting it out anywhere.

Consider - Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones, George Springer

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