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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/20/16
Welcome to Monday baseball! With LeBron James bringing a championship to Cleveland, it is all baseball from here on out until the NFL rolls around. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on some more pitching options, tournament stacks and some long ball targets. Let's get right into our top picks at each position.
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PITCHER
Clayton Kershaw FD 13000 DK 14200
Opponent - WSH (Strasburg) Park - @LAD
FD - 47.03 DK - 27.16
Kershaw is a lock and load for me in cash games every time he takes the mound, and tonight is no different. He has sported the best numbers in the majors with a 2.08 SIERA, 11.08 K/9 and a 0.66 WHIP. WOW! He takes on a Washington Nationals team tonight that is consisted of an even mix of righties and lefties, however, the top bats in this lineup are lefties. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, the two best Nats bats, are much worse against left handers than they are righties. While the temperature is getting a bit higher in Los Angeles, it still plays as a pitchers ballpark. The one thing that will scare off some ownership is the price, however, I am comfortable paying the high price due to the Mariners bats being pretty cheap. Once again, Kershaw is the top option in all formats, on all sites.
Stephen Strasburg FD 10800 DK 13200
Opponent - LAD (Kershaw) Park - @LAD
FD - 35.19 DK - 20.15
If you want to get off of Kershaw, you can look at the opposite side of the ball in Stephen Strasburg. I want too make one thing clear, and that is the fact that I prefer Strasburg on DraftKings. The reason for that is because of the win, which is much more important on FanDuel. Strasburg has started the year on fire with a 2.88 SIERA, 48.8% Swing and a 25.7% hard contact rate allowed to opposing batters. This dodgers offense on the other hand, has struggled against right handers this season as they have ranked in the bottom third in wOBA, K% and wRC+. Strasburg makes for a terrific play if you are looking to pivot off of Clayton Kershaw. Make sure to check out our pitching article as it will touch on 3 more options to consider.
CATCHER
Victor Martinez FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - SEA (Karns) Park - @DET
FD - 10.85 DK - 8.36
Jarrod Saltalamacchia FD 2000 DK 3200
Opponent - SEA (Karns) Park - @DET
FD - 7.15 DK - 5.44
While I was going to just list Victor Martinez here, I figured it was worth mentioning Salty as he hits righties well and has some upside at a low price. The Tigers are taking on an average right hander in Nathan Karns. Karns has struggled against righties this season as he has given up a .351 wOBA and an opposing hard contact rate of 33.7%. V-Mart on the other hand, has hit righties extremely well this season as evident by his .382 wOBA. Martinez is a great play in all formats and Saltalamacchia is a strict tournament play, preferably on FanDuel as he is minimum priced.
Buster Posey FD 3800 DK 5100
Opponent - PIT (Locke) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.47
Moving on to my favorite cash game option at catcher, we have Buster Posey. Posey and the Giants will be taking on Jeff Locke, a left handed soft tosser that struggled against righties as evidenced by the .377 wOBA he has given up this season. Buster Posey, believe it or not, has been one of the best hitters in the league against righties over the last few seasons. Dating back to 2013, Posey has sported a .382 wOBA against lefties that is backed up by a very sold BABIP and hard contact rate. While PNC Park is rather tough for right handed power, Posey can exceed value on extra base hits and RBI's. Posey is a terrific play in all formats and will be lower owned than he should be with cheaper options available in good spots.
FIRST BASE
David Ortiz FD 4400 DK 5500
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @BOS
FD - 15.29 DK - 11.49
While Ortiz is almost certainly going to slow down, I think we keep playing playing him against righties who have a problem of giving up the long ball. Miguel Gonzalez fits that profile perfectly as he has exhibited a .356 wOBA against lefties and has given up 4 home runs in only 19 innings of work. While I am sure you have noticed, Ortiz has been the best hitter in baseball with a .486 wOBA against right handers since opening day. With this game being played in Fenway Park, it is going to be very difficult to get off of Ortiz in cash games. However, I think Mike Pelfrey is going to to tempt me. Let's take a look at Adam Lind.
Adam Lind FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 11.93 DK - 9.17
Here we have our first of 900 Mariners bats. Literally. 900. Lind has been a platoon hitter for about years and has done his job exceptionally well against righties. Dating back to 2012, Lind has sported a .368 wOBA against righties that is backed up by a 34.6% hard contact rate. We will touch on Pelfrey in a bit, but all you need to know for now is that he is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. This entire Mariners offense is in play and you will surely know that by the end of this article. I promise.
SECOND BASE
Robinson Cano FD 4000 DK 5300
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 12.96 DK - 10.04
Robinson Cano is my top overall play and to be completely honest, it is not close. Cano, like Lind, is a left hander that absolutely demolished righties. So far in 2016, Cano has sported a rediculous .442 wOBA that is more than backed up by a .282 BABIP and a 39.8% hard contact rate. While I am going to hold off for one more position on my Pelfrey analysis, you just need to know that he is a bad right hander who is getting worse by the start.
Rougned Odor FD 3500 DK 5000
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.48 DK - 8.46
Personally, Robinson Cano will be in every single one of my lineups tonight. I am going to live or die with one of the best hitters in the game against one of the worst pitcher with a handedness advantage. However, if you are ever so inclined to get off of Cano, you can take a look at Rougned Odor. Odor and the Rangers will be facing off with Kevin Gausman, a right hander who is pretty much the definition of average. Odor gives you power and speed upside at a position that lacks both. I will reiterate, do whatever you can to get Cano into your lineup.
SHORTSTOP
Ketel Marte FD 2500 DK 0
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 8.67 DK - 7.59
You thought this was going to be the position where you don't see any Seattle guys, huh? Wrong. Here we have Ketel Marte, a switch hitting speedster who plays with a ton of variance. Let it be known however, that this play is contingent on Marte cracking the leadoff spot. If he is hitting towards the end of the lineup, he immediately becomes a strict tournament play. Now onto Mike Pelfrey, the 32 year old right hander that has been absolutely brutal against both left handers and right handers. Since 2014, Pelfrey has given up a combined wOBA of .382 and a SIERA of 4.64. Both of these are backed up by a 36.2% hard contact rate and a .309 BABIP. The Seattle Mariners are in an amazing spot and this is a good way to get cheap exposure in all formats.
Xander Bogaerts FD 3700 DK 5500
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.77 DK - 9.44
As I mentioned when talking about David Ortiz, Gonzalez has struggled with the long ball and this team is a tough one to face when that is the biggest weakness you face. While Bogaerts does hit lefties better, he has hit righties just fine this year with a .388 wOBA that is inflated by a .394 BABIP. Therefore, I do expect his numbers to fall, however, I definitely think he keeps it going against a pitcher like this. X-man has a great shot of getting one over the monster today and if you want to fade Marte, Bogaerts gives you much more upside.
THIRD BASE
Kyle Seager FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 11.83 DK - 9.15
What more is there to say about the spot that these Mariners are in? Seager is another guy who has been dominant against righties with a .362 wOBA dating back to his major league debut back in 2011. As I mentioned a few times, Pelfrey is going to mightily struggle against this Mariners team. While I do wish this game was being played in a better ballpark, this is a decent park for left handed power.
Kris Bryant FD 3900 DK 5100
Opponent - STL (Garcia) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.6 DK - 8.98
Next up we have my personal favorite player in baseball, Kris Bryant. Bryant has been terrific this season against lefties with a .383 wOBA, a 45.9% hard contact rate and has hit 7 of his 16 home runs against southpaws. While Jaime Garcia is not a guy I typically end to target, he has been a little iffy this season against righties with 5 home runs given up, which is not normal for a guy like Garcia. Bryant is one of the best power hitters in the game and it is never a bad idea to get exposure to someone with his upside at a low ownership rate. As a note, pay attention to the wind speed and direction as it makes a huge impact in Wrigley Field.
OUTFIELD
Nelson Cruz FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 11.57 DK - 8.74
Seth Smith FD 3600 DK 3900
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 12.31 DK - 9.37
While I wish I could roster more than 4 or 5 Mariners tonight, we are going to have to choose. As I write this, my top 5 are Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Adam Lind, Seth Smith and Kyle Seager, in that order. Both Cruz and Smith have hit righties very well over the past 2 seasons with a .342+ wOBA, which are backed up by hard contact rates over 35.
Mitch Moreland FD 2900 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.5 DK - 8.03
Nomar Mazara FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.39 DK - 7.28
Nomar Mazara has bursted onto the scene this season and has absolutely dominated early on. However, Mitch Moreland has quietly had a pretty good season as well. In only 200 plate appearances, Moreland has hit 10 home runs and has accounted for 22 total extra base hits. All in all, both of these guys have wOBA's over .350 against right handers. They will be facing off with Kevin Gausman, a right hander who has given up a .342 wOBA to righties over the last 2 1/2 seasons. These guys both have a ton of upside, however, I definitely prefer the Mariners outfielders in all formats. Goo luck tonight and make sure to leave a comment!
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One thing that is very interesting is taking the advice of these articles vs. going chalk with the optimizer. SEA & TEX are obviously your plays of the day but you only get 1 lower tier player from each of those teams with the DK optimal lineup. Decisions, decisions.
My concern is Strasburg v. Kershaw. Runs will be at a premium. Not knowing who will get a W which in FanDuel terms is huge, I was thinking to not go this way and wait for the other options listing later today.
Easy win is any pitcher vs Locke
how do u plan on rostering 4 Seattle bats with Kershaw on FD?
I was wondering the same thing ?
You don’t.
I agree Igor. Locke is horrible & Im surprised theres not more SF players listed. SF should be the stack of the day
A bit off topic but does anyone know how I could invest in daily daily fantasy sports? These states are all going to regulate? Anyone know how or where to invest in daily fantasy stocks etc? I know D.K and FD are private and considering merging to avoid double the state fees but have no idea how to invest it where. Anyone knows it has invested already if you could point me in right direction I would appreciate it. Thanks again picks were solid yesterday 2 top 15 finishes for me! Thank you
The only DFS company you can buy stock in is Yahoo, albeit that is at the conglomerate level, not the DFS arm individually. Amaya as well, although they are the parent company of the fringe site, starsdraft.
You may want to gain a bit more knowledge about investing before you start spending actual money. If there were any DFS companies to buy stock in (hard to count Yahoo’s DFS product as a legit contender), then buying the heels of the NY news would be the absolute worst time to buy stock.
Optimal line up cashed 3 double up slates yesterday, even with deGrom’s 27 points. In the Pitcher article you talked about Teheran who cashed me in gpp’s. Keep up the great work guys!
Interesting Fister projects so low today. I know he has mediocre stuff, but I think you could throw out a HS pitchers against that Angels lineup. Their offense is just putrid. I do really like Smyly tonight in GPP, looks like you have him graded out pretty high tonight.
I agree with andy. Also think that baumgardner is gonna get destroyed tonite. Call me crazy. I doubt he makes 6 innings. We shall see.
Why would you think Bum is going to get destroyed tonight? I have been watching teams that play late on Sunday and then arrive home at 3am and play the next day. The players seem too tired to do anything with the bats. If not for the late night game, I might figure Bum is due to get hit hard, since he hasn’t yet.
Are Mazara and Moreland still nice picks even though your stat about Gausman giving up a .342 wOBA to righties actually doesn’t apply to them given they’re both lefties? Both hit righties well but I’m not sure how to take that mistake with Gausman’s splits
@Andy
Problem with Fister is his K upside. He does not have any. And the Angels don’t punch out much (under 20%). He’s been pitching great and I like his chances to deliver a QS, but theres just no upside…. And it’s tough on a slate like this with so many pitchers that have upside.
Fister has been good this season though
thanks again for the writeup..all I have to say is I don’t use optomizer.I have my own system but at the core are the recommendations and writeups here..last night I spent $12 between FD and DK..I won $287 so I’m getting a bit better..I was in third going into cubbies game but top 2 had no players and I had bryant/rizzo.safe to say I mopped up..1st place $150…thanks again for your help
Doug, as the article mentions, worried about the 12 point win for Kershaw on FanDuel. Does it make more sense to run the optimizer with Bumgarner as my starting pitcher?? Kershaw is still showing up in all lineups. Thanks!
MLs are about the same on both. I’m playing Kershaw almost definitely.
Rickard or Mazara? FD, I pointed out above how Mazara does have splits that favor him against Righties but the split provided on Gausman is for righties while they are lefties, still good to play him or plug Rickard instead?
Cody stay with Madison…one he’s pitching in the burgh which has been good to him and two…Jeff Locke has no chance against him. Im even stacking Buster & Belt tonight cause theres not too many pitchers in MLB worse than Locke
De La Rosa not in the optimizer.
Fixed
Thanks, makes sense why Fister projects a little lower. Probably more of P2 on DK in cash games.
@justin I prefer Mazara.
@andy exactly
having trouble with Gausman being in the Optimal DK lineup with TEX as a recommended stack. lets see if it changes.
Anyone ever hear of and 1 analytics and if so what u think of them ??
Looks like Contreras is starting and batting 5th for the Cubs. Is that gonna be chalk territory for you Nick and Doug? I know Doug mentioned him on his podcast.
He’s a must play
He’s all over my lineups tonight! He’s dirt cheap, hitting 5th and has the R/L matchup.
Thanks Nick! I don’t know much about him but I’ll take my chances to afford pitching
For a cash lineup would you go:
Posey / Angel Pagan / Albert Almora
….. or …….
Contreras / Angel Pagan / Seth Smith
….. or …….
Contreras / Ozuna / Aoki
……. or ……..
Contreras / Leonys Martin / Justin Upton
I’m struggling to chose one of those combinations. If anyone wants to weigh it in would be appreciated. (p.s. i’m playing on fantasyaces, not FD or DK, so my pricing is different than what most of you have)
Thanks
Mercer and Harrison batting 1/2 at dirt cheap. Is it worth a punt in cash game FD? Starting kershaw ??
They are actually starting to show up in some stuff. Line moving in PIT favor. I think you can consider
Doug, what do you think of this lineup?
Clayton Kershaw
Willson Contreras
Prince Fielder
Robinson Cano
Ramiro Pena
Tim Anderson or Ketel Marte
Albert Almora Jr.
Angel Pagan
Nomar Mazara or Nelson Cruz
Choo choo ? Or Rickard please?
Choo
Norichika Aoki or Joc Peterson please?
Colorado and Miami are destroying fantasy line-ups tonight, and it is only the fourth inning. Maybe we will guess better tomorrow. While doing research I failed to pay attention to, and no website mentioned, that both pitchers suck. I think they are both pitching underhand.
Doug, we have a Giancarlo Stanton sighting!!! I didn’t ex him tonight based on your advice on the podcast and it’s paying serious dividends thus far!!! Thank you sir!! I would have exed him per usual if not for the “discussion” on the podcast!! You guys and optimizer is on point!! Not a big baseball fan. Had around $50 left in my FanDuel account. Contemplated shutting it down until football season. Thanks to the last 2 weeks and sticking with it, I’m up to over $600!!!!
One of those nights. If you told me before the games that neither Boston or San Fran would score a run through 6 innings and they’d have 6 hits combined I would have laughed. Not laughing now. Both getting shut down by bad arms. It happens.
Thomas, I’m loving it!!! I don’t think I took a single Giant or Red Sock (is that the correct singular of “Sox”?? “Soc” maybe?)!!!!
As long as Kershaw comes through (and maybe a couple of low dollar batters), should be a great night!!
I didn’t take any Giants but did take a few Red Sox. Gonzalez had pitched 15 innings in June giving up 9 runs.
Wow!!!! News!!!! Strasburg scratched!!!! Loving Kershaw now and wishing I had more LAD batters now!!
Should really help on FanDuel. On DraftKings though news broke in time so people just probably pivoted up to Kershaw.
7 solo HRs for COL/MIA??? And they aren’t playing at Coors! Crazy!!!
Strasburg wtf!! I played good money tonight too!
There’s another Cody on here?!?!?!?!
Welcome good named sir!!!
Giant’s an absolute dud haha. More often than not the obvious plays are the worst plays. More often than not they don’t produce or give you nothing but walks or fly outs or groundouts. So pathetic.
I don’t think it’s ever a good idea to spend on someone that’s over 5k. In order for picking someone of that price to even pay off they need to put up 20+ points which is asking a lot even for someone who is really hot. I mean posey at 5100 and he puts up 0 points. If you get that on any given night you might as well pack your bags and say tomorrow’s a new day.
Boston and SF…WOW. That was a complete cluster
Ryan and Joshua, the article barely mentioned SF and BOS. Optimizer basically avoided both teams. You’re on this site complaining about teams this site didn’t advise to take.
I don’t get it. Optimizer and podcast picks are on fire!!!!
I wasn’t even complaining lol just an observation. I listen to the podcast everyday it’s awesome but today I didn’t have time and just went with what I felt was decent.
same here, didn’t blame anyone. simply stating that those two stacks were a disaster.
and just FYI, SF was listed as one of the top tournament stacks in the update article. but again, not complaining, looked great on paper just didn’t happen.
What time do the new lineups come out each day?