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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/21/16
A packed Tuesday in Major League Baseball today with a bunch of stud pitchers going. As a quick digression, I have to admit I'm still riding high on just how great the NBA finals were and a little sad to see them go. I know that's a non-sequitur, but man were they great. Anyway, baseball. Here we go with a full Tuesday.
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PITCHER
Jose Fernandez FD 12000 DK 13700
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @MIA
FD - 47.76 DK - 31.16
Oh baby, what a season. Jose is mowing down opponents at a crazy rate. He's striking out 13 batters per nine. That's the best in the league and it isn't particularly close. Strasburg is in second at about 10% less per nine. Jose's been a beast with a 2.33 xFIP and is at least in the discussion for the Cy Young award, crazy considering the amount of talent on that side of MLB. Today he gets the benefit of facing the Atlanta Braves who rank third to last in the league against righty pitching this season. They don't strike out among the highest in the league, but this is Fernandez here so I'm willing to overlook it.
Noah Syndergaard FD 10900 DK 12900
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @NYM
FD - 41.65 DK - 27.44
It's a tough day to make decisions on pitching mostly because you have two of the top talents in the league both in solid matchups. Thor is also in the Cy Young dialogue thanks to a 2.16 xFIP (2nd in the league) and 11.22 K/9 (4th). One of his best gifts is living in the strike zone and is walking only 1.27 batters per nine (3rd). Dude's just mowed down hitters over the short term. The Royals are a middle of the pack team against righties but the -181 ML is well within Thor's favor. It's going to be a tough choice between these two guys tonight.
Corey Kluber FD 9700 DK 11600
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @CLE
FD - 40.02 DK - 22.29
The FanDuel price in particular has come down a bunch in the short term thanks to a rocky previous outing against the Royals. He got lit up. But Kluber is still a top flight arm and you are getting him at a major discount on FD. He's still striking out more than a batter an inning and the ERA about a run higher than the xFIP. The Rays strike out the second most in the league against righties and Kluber opens at a solid -170 favorite. I wish he was getting the same kind of discount on DK where I'd love to roster him as a SP2. He's cheaper there, but it's closer.
CATCHER
Victor Martinez FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - SEA (Paxton) Park - @DET
FD - 11.52 DK - 8.87
Another day, another V-Mart recommendation on FanDuel where the site is daring us to play him on about every slate of games. He has a tough matchup with Paxton who's showing the elite prospect stuff we waited for. But this is Martinez's much better split as a switch hitter and has torched lefties over the last couple of seasons with a .910 OPS and .391 wOBA. It's a closer call than usual because of the tougher matchup, but I'd be willing to roster him at a discount for sure.
Willson Contreras FD 2500 DK 2000
Opponent - STL (Wainwright) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.55 DK - 6.91
Here's to hoping he sticks in the Cubs' lineup. It's hard to know if they are going to play him everyday since getting called up, but that these prices I'd lock and load just about everywhere if he was just on the field. Contreras along with fellow recent call up Albert Almora represent just a couple more reasons Cubs' fans are over the moon about their team. Contreras raked in Triple-A and he's coming basically free across the industry.
FIRST BASE
Chris Davis FD 4200 DK 5400
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.44 DK - 10.75
Won't be the easiest guy to roster because of the pitching situation, but projects for the most raw points tonight at first base. Crush's primary weakness is the K which he's done aplenty over the last couple of seasons, namely 32.6% of the time in that span against righties. But Luis Perdomo isn't anywhere close to an elite K dude (much, much less in fact) and what you also get in the Crush righty split is a .943 OPS and 151 wRC+. The ballpark plays to lefty power and I love the upside here.
Prince Fielder FD 2300 DK 3000
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.36 DK - 9.37
Who doesn't love when Anthony DeSclafani pitches (except for DeSclafani himself, and the rest of the Reds)? He's been rocked so far this season in his two starts where he's struggled with command (walking 6 per nine) and failing to K more than five batters per nine. He isn't as bad as this, but it isn't like he has an excellent track record to fall back on. Fielder's struggled this season especially in the BABIP department with the shift killing him. But he's coming at punt prices now and still hitting in the middle of the lineup. Has a decent ceiling, but the floor is low as well because he's basically all or nothing at this point in his career.
SECOND BASE
Rougned Odor FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.46 DK - 9.26
I pine for the pre-punch days of yore when Rougned (don't call me Rougned J, that's my brother) was hitting leadoff for the Rangers. Those days are gone, but Odor's still in a great spot today for the Rangers who do project for one of the higher run totals on the day. Global Life Park plays up power for lefties and Odor's shone flashes with 21 home runs over the last two seasons in that split. He's run a little bad in BABIP over that time which drags his overall production some.
Neil Walker FD 3200 DK 3400
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.83
With the Mets banged up around the middle of their lineup, Walker's been a guy they've moved up in the order. He's been hitting cleanup, giving that slot some flexibility with his switch-hitting abilities. He's been around platoon neutral over the last couple of seasons and this isn't exactly an easy matchup with Ian Kennedy. But the latter's struggling some this season with a 4.76 xFIP thanks to a decrease in K's and and increase in walks. As long as Walker's hitting in the four slot he's fine at these prices. The bigger issue is how much the Mets have struggled with their recent injuries and the offense as a whole is below average right now.
Consider Cesar Hernandez on the cheap if he's hitting leadoff.
SHORTSTOP
Troy Tulowitzki FD 3000 DK 3600
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.96 DK - 8.34
After sitting for about a month with the quad injury, Tulo is back and sitting in the middle of the Jays' order. Before going on the DL dude had massive struggles at the plate where he was OPS'ing less than .700 on the season. He came back and homered in his first game back which is too small a sample to be relevant but at least points in the right directions. Crushing lefties has been his career hallmark and he'll get Corbin today in the Rogers Centre which plays up power all around.
Carlos Correa FD 3900 DK 3800
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.28 DK - 9.16
More of a DRaftKings play for me today where's less than on FanDuel. Correa's struggled this year on the OPS side of things though it's hard to pinpoint the exact issue. The ISO is way down, but just about everything else about his profile looks ok. He's striking out more, but also taking more walks. The batted ball profile is intact from last year and he may just end up being a low .800's OPS guy going forward. That's all fine considering the price dip. He still has a solid park and hits around the middle of the order. You'll take that for these prices.
THIRD BASE
Pedro Alvarez FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.68 DK - 9.63
Third base's been my least favorite to roster and write about almost all season. There are just very few offensive options at the hot corner, tonight being no exception. Hence the Pedro Alvarez plug. He's a three-true outcome kind of guy who doesn't do two of the outcomes (HR and BB) enough to be a great hitter. But he's serviceable at his FD price (a little steep on DK) and will almost definitely show up in lineups on the former because of the upside against Perdomo.
Danny Worth FD 2200 DK 2900
Opponent - LAA (Santiago) Park - @HOU
FD - 8.39 DK - 7.35
I'm speculating some on whether he'll be in the lineup today, but he's started four of the six Astros games since being brought up on the 14th. The righty-lefty matchup likely helps his chances of seeing the field against Santiago. Worth is simply a guy, nothing special to see here. But he's essentially free on both sites and third base strikes me as a position to punt and move on.
Consider Maikel Franco if he's back in the lineup
OUTFIELD
Shin-Soo Choo FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.3 DK - 10.36
Nomar Mazara FD 3000 DK 3200
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.27 DK - 7.96
I know I've gone heavy on the Rangers here today but it makes sense. They opened with one of the highest expected run totals for the evening and are all coming rather cheap. Mazara's come up to the majors in his rookie season and shown serious flashes of the upside. He already has 11 home runs with an OPS right around .800. Meanhwile Shi-Soo Choo's been walking more than K'ing in his brief, injury-shortened season and that's the perfect kind of number for your leadoff hitter. Both are in fantastic spots and allow you to spend up for pitching without sacrificing much in the way of offensive production.
Strongly consider Hyun-Soo Kim and Adam Jones
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image sources
- Jose Fernandez: (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
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Peralta is on the DL I thought??
Oh my bad. This wasn’t coming through our injury feed correctly. I updated.
@mattstubbz13 he is.
How many homeruns were hit last night?
There were home runs hit in literally every MLB game yesterday except the BOS/CWS stack, including Bumgarner’s 1-0 loss.
that Bos/Cws game was brutal. Had Wright figuring to get some Seattle, Texas, exposure, nuttin…
Will you guys have the podcast out before 1PM central time?
Am I crazy for considering fading jose for Tyler Wilson against SDP?? He did just shut down the BoSox somehow
As a Marlins fan, I love Jose and his matchup. However, be advised that unless he is going for a no hitter he will not be in their past 7 innings, likely no more than 6. It’s going to be an interesting day, a lot of Studs and a lot of mid and low tier guys in really good matchups.
I like Jose tonight as well. The Marlins have more of a chance to get that win than I think the Mets do v. the Royas because their offense is non-existent. Thor can strike out 10 and leave with a no decision.
Houston all around paid off big for me yesterday have little confidence in anything LAA. Houston all day for me stacks and more stacks
That being said Pedro Martinez was on MLB network the other night saying Jose is one of the pitchers most likely to get the next no hitter. So if Pedro’s predictions are as good as his body slam of Zimmer, Jose will be the steal of the night.
Hey Doug,
Please check your email when you get a moment. Thanks
ummm….man its really hit and miss…i only play double ups on nights without coors field games bc the sport is so volitile and points can come from anywhere…the optimizer is great but if your guys aint hitting doubles and homers youre sunk for sure…the optimizer does its job and puts all the guys that are supposed to do their part and get you points but a couple goose eggs will murder you….i like playing tourneys bc money can multiply if the picks go right
Does it take many more points to win $25 double ups??
I’ve gone from a balance of $50 to a balance of $715 over the last 2 weeks using the optimizer playing in about 5-10 $5 double ups for each slate (and a few GPPs for each as well). Having a hard time pulling the trigger on playing higher dollar 50/50s. I guess my question is… Would the points the optimizer has been spitting out be hitting the high dollar double ups as well?? Thanks!
Do you just use the top line up.
Yes. Top line up in all 50/50s. Been killing it. Just wondering if it takes 20-30 more points to win the higher entry 50/50s?
What’s everyone’s thoughts on Sale tonight? Going against Sox but it’s Sale who’s, pun intended, seemingly on sale!
Collin McHugh or Colby Lewis as my SP2 to pair with Jose Fernandez?
(fantasyaces, not FD or DK, pricing on McHugh/Lewis is identical)
@Reid I would go Lewis.
@Andrew I like him, but not sure I will pull the trigger. Red Sox scare me. His price is gorgeous though.
Dough thought I was insane when I mentioned him on the pod, so 🙁 lol
Thanks Nick. Much appreciated.
Doug or Nick, any reason there’s only one slate showing on FanDuel?? They usually have all slates up a little after noon EST.
@cody in my opinion the skill of the players increases as the potential for winnings do. That being said we all choose from same pot if your up over $700 I’d trust your picks and roll the dice
Why haven’t I seen anyone mention Cueto on any site? Seems like a great match up and he’s $1k cheaper on Fanduel. Obviously wanna pitch Fernandez but it’s hard building a decent lineup paying that much for a pitcher.
By 1 k cheaper i meant compared to Fernandez on Fanduel
Cueto is written up in the pitchers article
Awesome Doug, Syndergard is scratched so Now we don’t even have to think twice while plugging Fernandez in everywhere possible. Klubet is very tempting on fan duel at 9700 but I have my lineup looking pretty good with Fernandez In it. Kline can implode very quickly and ruin your team
Kluber lol
Nice Cody…are you playing FD or DK on double ups?
FanDuel only
I would take Nola over Kluber. Nobody seems to be talking about Nola playing the crappy strike out prone Twins. Hopefully he is low owned. Sign me up!
How do i sign up for this optimizer
He guys no optimizer updates since 11:00 am. All is good?
Never mind just updated. Thank you
Thanks again for taking Conforto out of it lol
How Do I Get To The Optimal Line Up???
Bentley, I’m considering Nola in a GPP, I’d avoid him like the plague in a cash game because the Phillies lineup is so bad right now Nola could throw 8 shut out innings and still get a no decision. Also, I know the Twins are no Toronto, but Nola’s last start against the Jays he gave up long balls to everyone but the bat boy. Chalk it up to a bad outing but I’m a little leery in case theres something going on injury wise that he’s trying to work through.
You guys think C francisco pena is in play batting 9th vs Perodomo for only 2,000? Fanduel cash btw.
I’m rolling with this lineup for FD:
Fernandez
Contreras
Napoli
LeMaheiu
Coghlan
Story
Choo
Upton
Mazara
Good luck to everyone tonight!
Doug, Ryan Flaherty or Pedro Alvarez, please?
Im stacking the Jays lineup. I believe they will put up huge numbers tonight!
Is it worth trying to stack some Rouals at depressed prices now that Colon is starting?
optimizer keeps flipping coghlan and profar at 2B, make up your damn mind, lmao!
Well dang!!! Podcast reamed Duffey and jiked about how terrible he is. Then the optimizer throws him out there as the starting pitcher for 8pm slate. Confusing!!! Didn’t know what to do!
Looks like the podcast was right over the optimizer. Duffey sucks!!!
And another POS bullpen costs a fantastic starting pitcher the win!!!!!! Night after night after night!!! It’s getting old!!
You guys couldn’t have been more off tonight.
Optimal lineups cashed both sites. Write ups are early looks of course.
Scott, are you playing GPP or Cash?? Because I’m killing all my cash games based off the optimizer!!
Though it looks like tonight was the night to stack the Giants. Think most folks jumped on them last night and were disappointed.
You must be tweaking it, right? Straight optimizer had 3 guys with 3 points or less ( Martinez, Mazara and Choo)
The top FD lineup finished with like 161 points:
Jose
Vmart
Fielder
Profar
Tulo
Alvarez
Choo
Kim
Heyward
Doug, I think we’ve found the tell tell sign with Stanton!!
Destroys lefties… Doesn’t wear protective mask.
0-5 again tonight against a righty… Wears the mask.
thanks a lot Nola… Almost dead last in everything I played in tonight
Other Cody, where did you get Nola?? Articles on this site barely mentioned him (in fact there is a comment on here advising to stay away) and he didn’t show up in the optimizer.
I didn’t play him but he was the 3rd pitcher mentioned in the pitching article..
He was mentioned. But I felt like taking a flier so I could pay up for bats.. Bats didn’t work out either
Will someone tell me how I get the optimizer u all speak of
As usual should ahve gone opposite of your picks. At least I had asche oherrea and Pedro Alvarez. Texas Baltimore garbage and the Yankees
Optimal lineups cashed both sites last night.
Optimizer results – DK – no cash
FD – cash
Based on 1st lineup predictions taken at 353 pm PST
This is incorrect. DK and FD lineups both cashed. Personally I took out the Baltimore game which cost. But the top FD lineup had like 160 points. DK lineups cashed 50/50s easily. So not exactly sure what you mean here.
top lineup in optimizer:
Cashed all 50/50 at 7pm
Cashed half 50/50 at 8pm (and that’s with Duffey getting negative points)
Cashed all 50/50 at 10pm
Don’t know what these folks are looking at saying optimizer not cashing!!