Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/25/16

A completely full day of baseball but I have a conflict. My nephew's birthday is at Chucky Cheese (these still exist) and I'm forced to go. So my question is: do I go and bring my computer, updating projections and basically ignore my family? Or do I go HAM all over that skee ball and crush sh#$y pizza like it's my job? Life if full of tough decisions. Let's get to the picks.

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PITCHER

Afternoon
John Lackey FD 9900 DK 11000
Opponent - MIA (Clemens) Park - @MIA
FD - 35.57 DK - 19.08
He's a little expensive for my tastes on DraftKings but is a nice buy on FD coming in at sub $10K. Lackey's seen a nice bump in his K's this season, going from a career 7.21/ 9 guy to someone who's putting down about a batter per inning. That's a not insignificant jump and it really helps his overall fantasy value. The Marlins aren't a bad offense all things considered. They rank in the top half of the league in team wOBA against righties and don't K a ton. But I don't love a lot of the pitching options on the afternoon slate of games and Lackey is a heavy favorite for the win.

Michael Pineda FD 7900 DK 8100
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @NYY
FD - 33.32 DK - 17.64
The great news on Pineda for starters: He's striking out batters at an awesome clip this season. The 10.24 K/9 is borderline elite and he's been excellent at avoiding the BBs with a 2.21 BB/9 rate. Those numbers are fantastic. The biggest issue for Pineda has been the BABIP against and the LOB%. Those are big factors in why his 5.82 ERA is so much higher than the 3.39 ERA. The Twins are a good matchup for him in they have little in the way of lefty power, somewhat mitigating the effects of Yankee stadium. I really like the prices here and am willing to stomach him because I think he's been mighty unlucky.
Evening
Madison Bumgarner FD 12000 DK 14000
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @SF
FD - 45.12 DK - 26.07
Bumgarner enters the evening slate of games as the clear cash game play. Though $12K on FD and $14K on DK is steep everything lines up for him as the safest option going. Though the 1.85 ERA is running hot compared to the 3.45 xFIP, you can take him against a Philly squad ranked second to last in the league against lefty pitching this season. They strike out a bunch in that split and the ballpark won't help their chances at all. Bumgarner is striking out batters at a 10.45/ 9 clip, the best of his career though the walks are up some for him. Regardless, he's the easy play tonight.

Jhoulys Chacin FD 5600 DK 4000
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @LAA
FD - 25.63 DK - 12.45
Really only a DraftKings play for me at a ridiculous price of $4K. That's less than many hitters and I'm willing to live with some of the downside if it helps me roster Bum and some other viable bats. Chacin is facing an A's ranked 27th in the league in team wOBA against righties. Again, this is a DK price play.

 

CATCHER

Afternoon
Welington Castillo FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.55
You are going to see a similar theme today on this afternoon slate and I suspect it's the same thing you will see in any article across the industry. We for sure aren't breaking any ground with stacking D-Backs against the lefty de la Rosa in Coors. Welington's crushed lefties over the last couple of seasons with an .893 OPS and .383 wOBA in that split. He should be in the cleanup spot as that's where they typically stick him against southpaws. If you don't have to spend up a bunch for pitching then Castillo becomes pretty chalky and since he sat yesterday I think he's a safe bet for the lineup today.

Brian McCann FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.86 DK - 8.16
If you are avoiding Coors then Yankee Stadium becomes a nice place to focus some attention. Ervin Santana doesn't have much in the way of strikeout ability and the short porch in Yankee Stadium beckons. Santana can induce ground balls, but I think you see McCann in the middle of the lineup for the Pinstripes with a solid chance at run expectation.

Evening
Jett Bandy FD 2000 DK 2900
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @LAA
FD - 6.46 DK - 4.92
Man do I love this guy's name. Jett Bandy. Jeez, it just sounds like a guy who's going to do something awesome. But in all seriousness, that freaking name right?! Anyway, Bandy is a lower-in-the-order guy, but a righty against the lefty Overton who doesn't exactly have an inspiring minor league track record. Bandy's been serviceable in his short major league tenure and helps you get away at catcher cheap from a team expected to put up some runs today.

FIRST BASE

Afternoon
Chris DavisChris Davis FD 3900 DK 4400
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.23 DK - 9.85
Whenever targeting Crush we want to find pitchers with lower K stuff. I give you Matt Andriese, a dude with a 6 K/9 rate in the majors so far and a 4.27 xFIP. The ballpark always plays up power and Davis is coming at reasonable prices all around. I especially like the FanDuel salary with his upside. Of course, he's a boom or bust dude on many occasions, but this is a good spot.

Evening
David Ortiz FD 4300 DK 5600
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.24 DK - 10.71
The Red Sox, per much of the usual, have one of the best expected run lines on the evening slate and Big Papi is a big reason why. He sure doesn't look like a guy who's planning on retiring with an 1.100+ OPS on the season and just looking like a true stud. The ballpark is fantastic for lefty power and A.J. Griffin can struggle some with control without evening it with big K upside. Ortiz's FanDuel price is excellent while the DK salary does start pushing the upper limits.

Prince Fielder FD 2400 DK 2500
Opponent - BOS (Wright) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.14 DK - 8.45
Hanley Ramirez FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.98 DK - 8.64
I'm grouping these two guys together though I like them for slightly different reasons. Hanley's in a good spot because the Red Sox are expected to put up runs and his price on FD has dipped some. Though he's struggled against righties over the last couple of seasons, some of that is BABIP-fueled. I'm interested more because of the team than the player.

Meanwhile, Fielder is not a punt play thanks to similar BABIP issues, though not exactly born from the same reasoning. He's been killed by the shift. But the Rangers do project to score today as there is reason for skepticism surrounding Steven Wright's success this year.

 

SECOND BASE

Afternoon
DJ LeMahieu FD 3800 DK 5100
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @COL
FD - 11.57 DK - 9.8
LeMahieu is an adequate hitter who just happens to get to play half of his games in a zero gravity chamber which will always make him look a little better than he really is. He's a greater hitter at home (who isn't in this park?) but he's back there tonight and hitting out of the two hole against Shelby Miller who, how do I put this? Sucks. I'll get to Miller a little later with some Rockies guys, but dude should be targeted.

Daniel Murphy FD 3600 DK 4800
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.31 DK - 9.04
He's just a hair cheaper than D.J. but has a similar upside expectation. Through two starts Matt Garza has a sub one ERA but an xFIP closer to four. He pitches to a ton of contact which plays well for Murphy's profile. Over the last two seasons Daniel's striking out only 7% of the time against righties and walking only 6%. That's a ton of contact the rest of the time. Murphy has nearly a .900 OPS in that split and this ballpark will help play up power to all of the alleys.

 

Evening
Robinson Cano FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - STL (Leake) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.14 DK - 8.63
A bad ballpark but this is a great spot for Cano. He's tuned up righty pitching during the last two seasons with an .890 OPS and 143 wRC+. He gets to face Mike Leake who does induce a ton of groundballs, but doesn't offer much in the realm of strikeouts. He's about as average as they come and Cano won't break the bank on you. The evening slate of games is a bit dicier all things considered, but I'm fine paying up here.

 

SHORTSTOP

Afternoon
Trevor Story FD 3500 DK 5300
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @COL
FD - 11.43 DK - 9.25
Probably too expensive on DraftKings unless you really go cheap with pitching, but a fantastic price on FanDuel. Again, I can't overstate how bad Shelby Miller's numbers have been this season. Miller's walking more than five batters per nine this season and striking out only around six. He's allowing a ton of hard contact and this is a park that doesn't forgive such a thing. Story's issue is the K, but that's reduced against Miller and the former is the clear cash game play on FanDuel.

On DraftKings strongly consider Tim Anderson out of the leadoff slot.

Evening
Andrelton Simmons FD 2300 DK 2800
Opponent - OAK (Overton) Park - @LAA
FD - 7.35 DK - 5.89
Was sorely tempted to just write "Skip" and move on with all of our lives. But the sites aren't so kind in this way and you must roster a shortstop. Bummer. This position is rough on the evening slate so I'm looking to get out cheap. Simmons will be at the bottom of the order, but Overton isn't much of a pitcher making his first start. The Angels have a decent run expectation and I don't think Simmons kills you here. But again, it's a price play.

 

THIRD BASE

Afternoon
Nolan Arenado FD 4500 DK 5500
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @COL
FD - 14.27 DK - 11.01
Best ballpark. Worst pitcher. Awesome talent. What more is there to say for Arenado? He's had two major changes to his profile this season which are helping him him close in on being a 1.000 OPS guy. He's K-ing less and walking more. The walk rate has nearly doubled since last year and he's reduced the K's from 16% to 11%. Those two trends are so promising for a guy who's only 25 years old.

Consider Pedro Alvarez

Evening
Jefry Marte FD 2000 DK 4300
Opponent - OAK (Overton) Park - @LAA
FD - 7.08 DK - 5.64
Marte's put up excellent numbers in a short sample size this season with an .882 OPS thanks to flashes of raw power. If you look at the pricing difference between FanDuel and DraftKings it really tells the whole story. When you see this kind of pricing gap on someone it means one of the sites screwed up. In this case, it's FanDuel. If he's in the middle of the lineup against the lefty then he's an insta-start on the FD. DK not so much.

Consider Adrian Beltre on DK

 

OUTFIELD

Afternoon
Carlos Gonzalez FD 4200 DK 5400
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @COL
FD - 15.01 DK - 11.5
The FanDuel price has him as a clear cash game play today considering the matchup. He sat out yesterday though that appears just a scheduled day off. As previously stated, Shelby Miller is a gas can with a bigger contract. Cargo should probably play out in most cash games because of the Rockies run line and the matchup. This one is easy.

Peter O'Brien FD 3100 DK 4000
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 11.26 DK - 8.49
I suspect he's the chalkiest chalk that ever chalked today. Facing the lefty Jorge de la Rosa in Coors is a perfect spot for O'Brien. That FD price isn't even close to correct for this matchup. Even DK has me intrigued if I can get out of the pitcher slot without committing too much salary. O'Brien has power upside and the splits theoretically favor him though the sample size isn't big enough to make a true judgment on just how much.

Evening
Shin-Soo Choo FD 3100 DK 3000
Opponent - BOS (Wright) Park - @TEX
FD - 12 DK - 9.34
Most of this comes down to what you think about Steven Wright. Do you think he's the 2.01 ERA guy or the 4.28 xFIP guy? There's a big difference. Wright could be one of the luckiest pitchers on the season or it could be that his BABIP will always trend low because of the knuckleball. The Vegas line suggests Wright is a bit smoke and mirrors and Choo out of the leadoff slot is a great value there.

Mookie Betts FD 4200 DK 5000
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.79 DK - 10.64
He'll cost, but the Red Sox are set to put up the most runs this evening and with Betts at the top of the order you aren't completely overpaying his salaries on either site. Betts has handled righty pitching over the last couple of seasons with an .839 OPS and .358 wOBA. He's tough to strike out and I see him as pretty safe here.

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