Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/6/16

Welcome back for another Hump Day edition of our daily fantasy baseball picks. Today we have a large split slate with seven early games and eight evening games. The pitching options are somewhat limited at the top on both slates with no real high priced "Ace" on the mound. It will be a great night to build some balanced lineups. Let's get started.


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Early Slate

Tanner RoarkTanner Roark FD 9000 DK 10500
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @WSH
FD - 33.73 DK - 22.14

After a disappointing 2015 season Roark has found the form he had with the Nats back in 2014. The record will always be close to .500 as he can definitely have a few of those blow up games but the peripheral numbers have improved dramatically overall. He has brought his K rate up to 7.80 K/9 after three seasons in the 5.5 - 6.5 K/9 range.  He is also producing a much lower ground ball rate at 53% and  opponents are only hitting with 22.3% hard contact rate. Nationals Park has played better for pitchers so far this season and Roark gets a juicy matchup vs. the Brewers who rank 19th in wOBA vs. right handed pitching but strikeout(25.9%) more than any other team. Roark is safe in all formats.


Jacob deGromJacob deGrom FD 10300 DK 10000
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @NYM
FD - 35.61 DK - 23.54

It has been a very consistent start to the 2016 season for deGrom who has only allowed more than three earned runs in a game just once(4 ER vs. MIL). He has a near great strikeout rate(8.79 K/9) and walk rate(2.09 BB/9) and has been even better at home as he has limited opponents to a .195 batting average at Citi Field. I don't fully trust the matchup for cash games as the Marlins rank 12th in wOBA vs. right handed pitching while striking out less than 19% of the time. I do however love this spot for GPP's as I feel more people will lean on Roark this afternoon.


Evening Slate

Johnny CuetoJohnny Cueto FD 10800 DK 11800
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @SF
FD - 40.79 DK - 26.89

Just like the early slate, the cream rises to the top. Johnny Cueto is in a great spot on Wednesday facing the Rockies who, going into Tuesday night, had lost six straight and seven of their last 10 games and sit with a 19-25 road record on the season. They are nowhere near as scary away from Coors as they rank 25th in wOBA on road. Cueto has had two bad starts in a row allowing 10 earned runs but did get the win vs. the D Backs while striking out nine batters in seven innings pitched. He pitches in a terrific environment and will have a great shot to pick up his 13th win of the season.



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Early Slate 

Stephen VogtStephen Vogt FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.84

While the price has crept up to $4K on DraftKings it has stayed steady below $3K on FanDuel making him a play in all formats Wednesday afternoon. He is almost always in play when facing a right handed pitcher as there is a big gap in his split stats. He comes into this game with .321 wOBA and 101 wRC+ vs. right handed pitching and .253 wOBA and 55 wRC+ vs. left handed pitching. He will get a good matchup vs. Ervin Santana who has had moments of brilliance but comes into this game with a 4.50 ERA and even worse 4.64 xFIP on the season.


Evening Slate

Russell MartinRussell Martin FD 2600 DK 3200
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.13 DK - 7.75

After a day off on Tuesday, Martin should be back in the lineup tonight as the Jays try to sweep away the Royals. He hits in the five hole which adds a ton of value on a team that is crushing the ball lately. The bat has been inconsistent all year with a strikeout rate right around 30% but Martin has shown the ability to explode for a big game which is perfect in a GPP scenario.


Evan GattisEvan Gattis FD 2500 DK 3000
Opponent - SEA (LeBlanc) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.88 DK - 7.48

If you are looking to pinch even more savings out of the catcher position tonight take a close look at Evan Gattis. Much like Martin, he isn't a model of consistency but can produce the big games and comes at a cheaper cost with much more power upside. Gattis also has strong splits vs. left handed pitching with a .320 wOBA and 97 wRC+ vs. southpaws. He makes a nice stand alone option in a GPP or as a part of an Astros stack vs. the lefty.



Early Slate 

Joey VottoJoey Votto FD 3500 DK 4900
Opponent - CHC (Warren) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.45

The ownership at first base should be spread out in the afternoon slate with four options at the top great spots. Votto could easily provide the highest floor with his 16.1% walk rate but his upside can also be limited by the lack offensive players around him. He has been red hot since the start of June as he is hitting .333 with five home runs and 21 runs scored. He has also stole five bases in that time so you know the confidence is sky high right now. He will get a great matchup vs. the Cubs and Adam Warren making his first start of the season. In 25.2 innings of relief this season he has been awful with a 4.56 ERA and 5.35 xFIP and has only struck out 18 while walking 14 batters. Votto is a great cash game play and with projected low ownership also makes a nice GPP play today.


Evening Slate

Hanley RamirezHanley Ramirez FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.32 DK - 10.48

Looking at the night slate Hanley comes in as one of the top PTS/$ plays on the projection system at the first base position, especially on FanDuel in the mid $3K range. Going into Tuesday night's action Hanley was red hot since the middle of June slashing .348/.438/.623 with an elite 177 wRC+. He hits in the five hole for the Red Sox in their potent lineup and comes at a nice discount from the top four or five options at the position.



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Early Slate

Neil WalkerNeil Walker FD 2600 DK 3400
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @NYM
FD - 8.99 DK - 6.94

Walker makes a terrific cost saving value play in the early slate today. He has been consistent over the last two weeks hitting .289 witha .346 OBP with seven runs batted in and 10 runs scored. The upside is limited as the Mets offense is battered right now but he gets a ton of opportunity as he has been alternating between the two and four hole in the lineup. He gets a decent matchup vs. Justin Nicolino who is struggling to get anyone out with a low 4.15 K/9 rate and 5.04 xFIP in 11 starts this season.


Evening Slate

Dustin PedroiaDustin Pedroia FD 3900 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.85 DK - 10.16

The projection system absolutely loves the Red Sox tonight in a matchup vs. the Rangers who are sending Martin Perez to the mound. Pedroia comes into this game riding a 10 game hit streak and is hitting .33 since June 21st with a strikeout rate below 10% and walk rate closing in on 13%. He has one of the highest floors of any player on the slate hitting 2nd in the Red Sox powerful lineup that ranks first overall in runs scored with 463 on the season. He should have no problem extending his hit streak to 11 against Perez who has walk rate(3.82 BB/9) that is almost higher than the strikeout rate(4.43 K/9). His ERA of 3.39 could be due for some big regression as the 4.90 xFIP would suggest. Look for the Red Sox to help the regression get here a little faster with a big offensive outburst.



Early Slate

Javier BaezJavier Baez FD 2600 DK 3400
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.5 DK - 6.84
Addison RussellAddison Russell FD 2500 DK 3500
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @CHC
FD - 7.84 DK - 6.19

Both Cubs shortstops are fantastic value plays today on both sites at the same price range. Baez has been red hot lately with hits in three straight and eight of his last nine games including three home runs and eight runs batted in. Russell has also been heating up with three straight games with multiple hits including three long balls. While the 1.78 ERA that Anthony DeSclafani is riding looks shiny it won't continue as the xFIP is way higher at .466 suggesting a fall from grace any day now. No better time than against a powerful Cubs team that ranks 2nd behind the Red Sox in total runs scored(433) this season.


Evening Slate

Xander BogaertsXander Bogaerts FD 3400 DK 4900
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.52 DK - 10.84

Bogaerts is the one guy in the Red Sox lineup that can be bought at a discount this evening as the production has dipped a bit lately. He is still one of the elite fantasy players this season and sits in the Top 10 in many offensive categories including runs, average, and hits. I would not use him in cash games or as a stand alone player today but will most definitely include him in my Red Sox stacks tonight as he comes with tremendous upside hitting in the three hole in the highest scoring offense in the majors.



Early Slate 

Wilmer FloresWilmer Flores FD 2100 DK 4300
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @NYM
FD - 8.58 DK - 6.7

This is a FanDuel only play as his price took a huge jump on DraftKings after his six hit game on Sunday afternoon. He showed some power upside with a pair of home runs and four RBI on the day. He is minimum price on FanDuel and allows a ton of room to pay up for deGrom or Roark and load up on hitters. He was moved up into the cleanup spot no Tuesday night but went hitless but should remain somewhere in the middle of that order going into Wednesday afternoon vs. Justin Nicolino.


Evening Slate

Yangervis SolarteYangervis Solarte FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.14 DK - 7.16

I have been raving about Solarte for weeks now and he continues to pay the bills at a low cost. You will not find another cleanup hitter in the league at these prices with kind of production. Since the 18th of June he has been slashing .408/.491/.612 with an elite 204 wRC+ and doing so on the offensively challenged Padres. While I get that regression wil most definitely bring him back down to Earth you can't deny the value during this hot streak for a player who should be priced at least $5oo higher on both sites.



Early Slate 

Miguel SanoMiguel Sano FD 2700 DK 4500
Opponent - OAK (Gray) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.13 DK - 9.17

Another player that is probably a bit over priced on DraftKings but a terrific value on FanDuel today. Sano is cut from a very similar mold as Chris "crush" Davis of the Orioles in that he strikes out at a very high 30%+ rate but also walk well over 10% and produce excellent on base percentages because of it. Sano has hit 12 home runs to this point and is currently hitting to the tune of a 43% hard hit contact rate. The upside is huge in a matchup vs. a horrible Sonny Gray and his 16% HR/FB rate.


Evening Slate

Matt HollidayMatt Holliday FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - PIT (Locke) Park - @STL
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.22

Holliday has been inconsistent overall hitting just .244 on the season but has continued to show the power upside with 15 home runs and a 109 wRC+. He gets a matcup vs. Jeff Locke who is striking out under five batters per nine innings and working with an ERA and xFIP north of 5.00 for the season. While Holliday has struggled to a .213 average vs. left handed pitching this season he is currently sitting with a 43% hard hit contact rate so we can expect that average to come back around his career .295 average.


Rickie WeeksRickie Weeks FD 2100 DK 2100
Opponent - SD (Rea) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.56 DK - 6.72

Punt play of the day. If he is starting once again for the D Backs. He has been a bench player for most of the season but has made the most of his starts and is coming off a home run last night vs. the Padres. He is minimum price on both sites, comes with some pop in his bat and has spent time in some prime spots in the order. Be sure to check the starting lineups prior to lock tonight.


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7 Visitor Comments

  1. man Rodon was awful last night….. here’s to deGrom being better!!!!!

  2. Realizing that this is ridiculous on the surface, does anyone feel that Shelby Miller is worth a shot on DK @ $4600? The Padres offense is pathetic.

    • Padres offense is playing a lot better

  3. Honestly, I don’t think anything is crazy at this point. Pitching has been reeeeeeally hard to figure out this year. I’ve comfortably cashed on DK the last 2 nights, despite complete garbage from from my SP2s Harvey & Ordorizzi (negative pts both nites, but very few pitchers crushing it). Seems offense is way up this year, I’m at the point, of paying up more for bats than pitchers right now.

  4. Bit of trivia… Nicolino is the only LHP on the FD early slate.

  5. ROFL, Rickie Weeks ? Punt play of the day ? Rickie Weeks, worse pick of the day versus a right handed pitcher. i have him always versus a lefty, there he is dangerous. He is now 2 for his last 21 at bats, and a .221 hitter versus right handed pitchers. Arizona manager knows this and he will probably not play versus a right handed pitcher, if he does play he is the worst pick of the day

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