Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 200 - 7/9/16

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Huge card, huge contests on DraftKings. UFC 200 brings us three title fights, the return of Brock Lesnar, three other former champions in action, and another look at young prodigy Sage Northcutt. If this card doesn't get you jacked up...go home, you're drunk. Saturday's action wraps up a wild three days in Las Vegas for International Fight Week and hopefully plenty of DFS profits for you. There are some crazy high fan and Vegas favorites to analyze, making value at the bottom of lineups a little hard to find. The anticipation for this card is months in the making, let's get to the picks.

Click here for Picks & Analysis of UFC Fight Night 90 - #UFCVegas (7/7/16)

***As we continue to improve our offering at DFSR, the cheat sheet and recaps below have been updated to include the Vegas Finish Prop and strikes landed per minute.

Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?

VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)

Jim Miller ($10,800)

Vegas Line: -250
Finish Prop: +119
Career Record: 25-8, 1 NC
UFC Record: 14-7, 1 NC
Record In Last 5: 1-4
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.51
Finishes: 3 KO / 14 Subs / 9 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 2 Subs
Last Time Out: L, Unanimous Decision - Diego Sanchez

There are literally tons of options for above $10,500, so I want to dive into one you probably haven't heard or know much about, Jim Miller. Miller is a grizzled UFC veteran (never underestimate a vet) and despite being 1-4 in his last five and it's worth noting that he has faced top flight competition as of late. He takes on Takanori Gomi who is just 2-3 in his last five fights and suffered back-to-back first-round TKO's in his last two outings. Though Gomi is also a veteran, he never had the same success as Miller against high level opponents. Miller is a great under the radar play among the favorites and is in the top-five in finish potential with a +119 prop to win inside the distance. I'm not knocking (insert any one of 3 or 4 names you're thinking here), but Miller could bring back huge returns, especially in GPP formats.

MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)

Gegard Mousasi ($10,300)

Vegas Line: -265
Finish Prop: +170
Career Record: 38-6-2
UFC Record: 5-3
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.54
Finishes: 19 KO / 12 Subs / 26 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 3 Subs
Last Time Out: W, Unanimout Decision - Thales Leites

Quick side note before we get to Gegard Mousasi - heads up for the Joe Lauzon / Diego Sanchez fight, both guys are at $9,700 and it's going to be an absolute WAR - probably Fight of the Night. OK, on to another choice that could surprise many of you in Mousasi. While Thiago Santos is no slouch, he's taking this fight on short notice and the salaries for UFC 200 were posted before that change. The result is Mousasi ended up way under priced as compared to his actual odds - should be around $10,800. Often with foreign guys like Mousasi their records get inflated. That may be the case here as well but Mousasi has proven himself in the middleweight division with wins over Mark Munoz, Dan Henderson, Costas Philippou, and Thales Leites. I'm a sucker for value and the simple fact is even though this fight isn't a walk, Mousasi should be more expensive and I just can't pass up a sale - especially on an elite fighter.

UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)

Travis Browne ($8,200)

Vegas Line: +245
Finish Prop: +325
Career Record: 18-3-1
UFC Record: 9-3-1
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.07
Finishes: 14 KO / 2 Subs / 14 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 2 KO
Last Time Out: W, 3rd Round TKO - Matt Mitrione

Yep, I'm probably 3-for-3 against the grain but hey, you're here to get information and possibly think about things differently - hopefully Travis "Hapa" Browne does just that. First off - we can all agree that Cain Velasquez is a scary human being...not Brock Lesnar scary, but still. Again, it's just a numbers game for me. There aren't a ton of underdogs I have confidence in so I'm choosing to make space for the big guns and also roster a heavyweight who can turn out the lights on ANYONE with one punch...or elbow (ask Josh Barnett or Gabriel Gonzaga). Not to mention the ongoing concerns/questions with Velasquez's health and plenty of resume building wins in Browne's favor - this one could be the shocker of the night. There are a couple of 'dogs who have a better chance to win their fight but Browne's value with the potential of 100+ points gives him the nod here as someone to consider.

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for UFC 200? Shaun is selling lineups for only $5 for DraftKings Cash Games & Tournaments. Just click the button below, this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the UFC 200? Shaun is selling lineups for only $5. He covers DraftKings Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.