Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
Quaker State 400

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Quaker State 400

Kentucky Speedway - Sparta, Kentucky
Track - 1.5 Mile D Shaped Oval Intermediate
Banking - 14-17° Banking in the Turns

It was another crazy Daytona race with the contrarian style winning out in the DFS game. The "big one" happened around lap 90 and affected many drivers including Harvick, Kenseth, Elliott, Johnson, Menard, Truex Jr., Kahne, Patrick, Newman and Biffle. If you played Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski with a mix of low end guys you were probably very profitable. Brad dominated at the front leading 115 laps and spent of 95% of the race inside the Top 15. It was crazy at the bottom where many bottom tier drivers finished with Top 20's including Trevor Bayne(3rd), Michael McDowell(10th), Cole Whitt(11th), Casey Mears(12th), David Ragan(16th) and David Gilliland(19th). Time to move on to a more stable environment and back to some mile and half tracks.

This week NASCAR heads to Sparta, Kentucky for the Quaker State 400. Kentucky Speedway has been a part of the circuit for just five years and has already seen a major renovation. This weeks race will be the first race on the new surface and the track also reconstructed turn 1 and turn 2. It will be very important this week to pay close attention the practice speeds to see who is getting an early handle on the track. I will definitely weigh track history but not as much as other tracks. I will put much more weight on current form and practice speeds this week. Let jump in to some picks!

 

Are looking to get better as fantasy NASCAR but don't have the time to conduct all the research necessary? Check out my DFS NASCAR Cheatsheet which will give you the edge to cash more consistently on DraftKings. The cheatsheet includes driver salaries, current form(Last 5 races), Track History(Last 5 Years), Loop Data, weekly salary trends,  and practice and qualifying ranks. I have also created a weighting system which changes weekly and takes in to account all of the things listed previously. I update the practice and qualifying as they happen which changes the overall rankings through the weekend. The cheatsheet will also be final shortly after the final practice. If you purchase the cheatsheet prior to final practice you will receive an email when the final lineup has been set.

If you have any questions about the cheatsheet throw me an email(jagerbombs99@gmail.com) or hit me up on Twitter(@jager_bombs9).

 

Upper Tier Targets ($9,000+)

 

Kyle Busch
DraftKings - $10,200
First Practice - 2nd
Second Practice - 25th
Final Practice - 5th
Qualified - 6th

Kyle really has it all going for him this weekend. After four straight finishes outside of 30th he has bounced back with a 7th at Sonoma and a runner up last weekend at Daytona. He seems to have his swagger back and now comes back to a track he has dominated since it joined the circuit five years ago. He has won here twice and finished all five races inside the Top 10 and four of them inside the Top 5 including a series best 437 laps led. Look for Kyle to qualify well and run up front and be in contention come the final laps.

 

 

Jimmie Johnson
DraftKings - $10,000
First Practice - 5th
Second Practice - 2nd
Final Practice - 18th
Qualified - 9th

This pick has more to do with value than anything. I won't be trusting Jimmie in cash games but feel this week makes an excellent time to jump on boar din GPP formats. His salary has again dropped to $10K making him the 5th most expensive this week. That in itself is enough but dig deeper and see that Jimmie has also finished all five races at Kentucky inside the Top 10 and is sure to break through sooner or later. His form is what keep me from trusting him but it is also the reason I think he will be lower owned this week. Look for the #48 team to breakout in a big way this weekend and contend for the win.

 

 

Joey Logano
DraftKings - $10,100
First Practice - 18th
Second Practice - 13th
Final Practice - 13th
Qualified - 4th

He is one of the hottest drivers in NASCAR over the last 5 races with a win, four Top 5's, and has finished all five inside the Top 10. He is also one of the drivers who has not been shy about loving the new rules package and what it presents  to the racing product on the track. He has yet to win here at Kentucky but his teammate Brad Keselowski has won here twice and I expect Penske Racing to be strong once again. Logano has qualified as good as anyone this season(8.0 average start) and I expect him to be up front for most of the day and contend for the win with the drivers above.

 

Also Consider - Kevin Harvick

Middle Tier Targets ($6,500-$9,000)

 

Matt Kenseth
DraftKings - $8,700
First Practice - 16th
Second Practice - 25th
Final Practice - 22nd
Qualified - 11th

After getting caught up in a wreck and finishing 28th at Daytona the price on Kenseth has stayed in the mid tier once again. He is the other driver outside of Keselowski and Busch who have won here in the last five years and is only one of three drivers(Johnson, Busch) who have finished all five races inside the Top 10. It has been a disappointing season for the most part for the #20 team but they are locked into the Chase with a win and the Joe Gibbs cars have been extremely fast all season. Kenseth is safe in all formats.

 

 

Jamie McMurray
DraftKings - $7,300
First Practice - 20th
Second Practice - 7th
Final Practice - 16th
Qualified - 16th

The time to buy on McMurray is now. His salary has reached a season low after a crash resulted in a 34th place finish at Daytona. This makes him a great value in any format. He has only had one Top 10 here at Kentucky in five years but adjusted well to the new down force package earlier at Michigan where he finished 9th. He should be in line for some place differential points as well as he has not qualified well in 2016. Stay tuned through the weekend.

 

Also Consider - Ryan Newman

 

 

Low End Targets ($6,500 and Below)

 

David Ragan
DraftKings - $5,600
First Practice - 29th
Second Practice - 32nd
Final Practice - 29th
Qualified - 31st

He comes in at a bottom price and has some upside for place differential points(+5 on the season) and some track history. In the five previous Kentucky races he has one Top 10 and a 22.4 average finish which is excellent considering the low price tag. I wouldn't trust in cash games but Ragan makes a nice piece to a stars and scrubs lineup.

 

Also Consider - Trevor Bayne

 

Post Practice & Qualifying Update

 

Qualifying Top 10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you have any questions on lineups or drivers prior to lineup lock scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.

 

Good Luck everyone!

 

 

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Quaker State 400? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings and FantasyFeud Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.