Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/18/16


Welcome to Monday baseball! We have an 11 game slate on our hands with some aces as well as a few offenses in great spots. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on pitching articles, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position!

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Jose FernandezJose Fernandez FD 12000 DK 13800
Opponent - PHI (Nola) Park - @PHI
FD - 42.17 DK - 27.59

Jose Fernandez has solidified himself into the elite category this year after having a few doubters the last couple seasons. He has one of the best strikeout rates in the league at 12.91 per 9 innings. He will take on a Philadelphia Phillies team that strikeout a ton and will look to take serious advantage of that weakness. While he is the highest priced pitcher on the slate, I think he is worth serious consideration in both your cash games and tournaments. That being said, there is an argument to pay down and that is because there is a game in Coors Field. If you want to pay down, I would go with either A.J Griffin or Aaron Nola. Both levels of thinking are completely justified and that is what may split the field tonight.

Chris SaleChris Sale FD 10900 DK 12200
Opponent - SEA (Young) Park - @SEA
FD - 40.43 DK - 26.82

If you are going to target the Mariners with a pitcher, it better be a lefty. They are in the bottom 10 in the league against lefties with a .315 wOBA and a 29% hard contact rate. Chris Sale on the other hand, has decided that he wants to go with a more "pitch to contact" approach this season, which is surely not working as well for us. While it does worry me a bit, I think he will be going for a few more strikeouts here after struggling a bit last start. Sale has been one of the best pitchers in the league over the past 5 seasons with a sub .300 wOBA to both lefties and righties. Chris Sale makes for a tremendous cash games and tournament game on both sites, and comes in a bit cheaper than Jose Fernandez.

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Victor MartinezVictor Martinez FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @DET
FD - 11.66 DK - 8.93

While V-Mart isn't known for being an elite hitter, he certainly is against righties. This far into 2016, he has hit righties to the tune of a .360 wOBA that is backed up by a rediculous 42.3% hard contact rate and a 25.1% line drive rate. The Tigers are taking on Ricky Nolasco, a right handed veteran that has given up a 4.32 xFIP and a 34.6% hard contact rate. With Martinez being priced fairly on both FanDuel and DraftKings, he is viable in all formats.

Nick HundleyNick Hundley FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - TB (Smyly) Park - @COL
FD - 10 DK - 7.82

The Coors Field game is going to be all over this article and that is just the nature of the slate. With no other offenses on the slate that are in exceptional spots, we are going to highlight the Rockies and Rays offenses. The first of the bunch, Nick Hundley. Hundley is a guy I tend to roster when in Coors Field due to the fact that he had a wOBA .150 points higher than he did on the road. While Smyly is not a guy I would target with hitting outside of Coors, his weaknesses will be magnified in the high altitude.



Miguel CabreraMiguel Cabrera FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @DET
FD - 14.43 DK - 10.97

First base is loaded as always, and we are going to go back to the Detroit Tigers well. Miguel Cabrera is one of the absolute best hitters in the league and will be facing off with the before mentioned Ricky Nolasco. While Nolasco used to be one of the good pitchers in the league, those days are long gone. With below average surface stats and peripherals, you can assure that he is on the way down. Cabrera is going to be the top option at first base, and it is not too close. While he is insanely priced on DraftKings, he is very fairly priced on FanDuel.

Chris DavisChris Davis FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - NYY (Nova) Park - @NYY
FD - 13.51 DK - 10.08

If you are going to enter into a large field tournament and are looking for a guy with huge upside and a low ownership, Chris Davis is going to be the guy. He has accumulated 16 home runs against right handers this season and has backed that up with a .362 wOBA and a 43.2% hard contact rate. The Orioles will be facing off with Ivan Nova, a right handed fire baller that has struggled mightily against lefties on the season. Davis makes for a great play in tournaments, and I couldn't blame you if you wanted some exposure in cash games. With the game being played in Yankees Stadium, all he will have to do is hit a long popup.

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Logan ForsytheLogan Forsythe FD 4000 DK 5100
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 12.51 DK - 9.99

Get used to some Tampa Bay Rays bats. Tyler Anderson is not a very good pitcher and you are definitely going to want some exposure to them in both cash games and tournaments. The first one we are going to take a look at is Logan Forsythe. Forsythe has hit lefties extremely well over the past 2 seasons with a .356 wOBA that is backed up by a great line drive and hard contact rate. We will touch on Tyler Anderson later, but just know that he is a bad pitcher in a VERY bad situation. If you want to look at the other side of the ball, let's take a look at D.J LeMahieu.

DJ LeMahieuDJ LeMahieu FD 3900 DK 5000
Opponent - TB (Smyly) Park - @COL
FD - 12.08 DK - 10.21

This is our second of many Rockies bats and while Lemahieu isn't my favorite, he is definitely sitting in my top 2 at the position, due to the natural scarcity at second base. Dating back to opening day, Lemahieu has hit lefties to the tune of .393 wOBA that is backed up by a 38.8% hard contact rate. When you take those numbers and combined them with Coors Field, you have a recipe for success. If you don't believe in Forsythe for whatever reason, Lemahieu makes a very good secondary option.



Trevor StoryTrevor Story FD 3900 DK 5400
Opponent - TB (Smyly) Park - @COL
FD - 12.68 DK - 10.22

Yep, back to the Rockies. While I mentioned that Drew Smyly is a pretty good player, I also mentioned that he will have some trouble in Coors Field. Since 2014, Smyly has given up a 55% flyball rate, 23% line drive rate and a 32.1% hard contact, which does not bode well for success in the high altitude. Story has proven himself as a hitter with over 20 home runs on the season and will look to match his first half with a bunch of homers coming in the next couple months. Stry is going to be my top option at shortstop, and the price works well.

Jedd GyorkoJedd Gyorko FD 2300 DK 3100
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @STL
FD - 7.28 DK - 5.56

If you want to pay down a bit and spend up at other spots, Jedd Gyorko is a very good option. Not only is he hitting in one of the most consistent offenses in the league, but he has hit lefties very well over the course of his career. Since 2014 in San Diego, Gyorko has hit lefties with a .348 wOBA that is backed up by very strong peripherals and batted ball numbers. The Cardinals are taking on Christian Friedrich, a left handed young gun that has struggled locating his fastballs against righties. While I prefer him in tourneys, Gyorko makes for a strong play across the board.



Nolan ArenadoNolan Arenado FD 4600 DK 5500
Opponent - TB (Smyly) Park - @COL
FD - 15.41 DK - 11.84

Yep, it is almost over. While this might be considered overkill on the Coors game, my goal is to just emphasize how much I like both offenses in the game. Usually, there are a few offenses that stand out besides Coors and I will look to highlight them as well as the offenses in Colorado. However, today is a different story with both of these offenses being head and shoulders above the rest. Nolan Arenado is one of the best hitters in the league and thing especially rings true against left handers. Since the beginning of the season, he has held a wOBA over .400 against lefties in Coors Field.

Evan LongoriaEvan Longoria FD 4300 DK 5000
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 13.14 DK - 10.04

Longoria is possibly my favorite overall option on the board tonight and it comes down to 3 factors; match up, price and ballpark. The match up with Tyler Anderson is ideal as Anderson has struggled mightily against right handers at home in Coors Field. While his price on FanDuel is pretty accurate, he is only $5000 and would be a must play if Nolan Arenado wasn't only 500 dollars more expensive. While most will be on Arenado, I will be leaning a lot of my ownership on Longo, and going for the home run against a bad southpaw.



Matt HollidayMatt Holliday FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @STL
FD - 12.08 DK - 9.2
Stephen PiscottyStephen Piscotty FD 3600 DK 5200
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @STL
FD - 10.49 DK - 8.34

I could of easily included Randal Grichuk as well here, but I think you get the point. Depending on the way the lineup shakes out, I am going to be getting a ton of exposure to this Cardinals team while everyone else is focusing elsewhere. Both Holliday and Piscotty, have mashed left handers over the past seasons with wOBA's over .350 and both have proven themselves and their peripheral statistics. Friedrich is a guy that struggles with command and if he leaves one over the plate against either of these guys, goodbye baseball.

Billy HamiltonBilly Hamilton FD 2600 DK 3700
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.13 DK - 9.1

Billy Hamilton is going to be the guy I go after tonight that is going to make or break my tournament lineups. With most of the field being on Denver offenses, the Reds are going to slip way under the radar against a right handed gas can. Not only does Wisler struggle against lefties, but he also struggles at holding runners. While it goes unsaid, that is not a very good weakness to have if Billy Hamilton gets on base. I am going to hop on the Hamilton train and ride it all the way to wherever it takes us tonight. While I don't recommend him in cash games, I think he makes for a terrific tournament play, on both sites.

So yeah, baseball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our MLB eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy MLB lineup. It's free, below.



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9 Visitor Comments

  1. my concern is with playing Jose Fernandez, how do you field anything remotely competitive as far as lineup goes?

    • You have to fade Coors Field, which is dangerous. But look at an Orioles and Cardinals double stack for value.

      • Okay and which pitcher do u pair them with then?

  2. I would stack up on Atlanta and reds both pitcher suck. I hate stacking teams playing at coors in tourneys. Most people stack those teams and its best to fade especially since they are expensive. I like Sales tonight

  3. On Vacay and playing on FD. Haleluia!!! Difinately going to be hard playing Fernandez and a decent line up. Coors stacks. Going to make it tough on me for a few days I’m going to get to play. Going to try and get some redemption on my H2H from the past. Good luck to all today….

  4. Any thought on Kluber tonight? I know it’s against KC and they really don’t K a ton….

  5. Does anyone know the status of Choo, Polanco, and Daniel Murphy for this week?

  6. Chris Davis is not starting. What is the suggested replacement? I am looking at Votto.

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