Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/22/16

Welcome back for another day of daily fantasy baseball as we look to start off the weekend with a bang.  All 15 games are on the main slate tonight which starts at 7:00 pm et and features one inter league game that has the Giants visiting the Yankees. Madison Bumgarner is the top pitching option when looking at price(big gap to 2nd) and the real decision today comes down to whether you are paying up for him in a less than ideal situation or fading the MadBum in Yankee Stadium. Let's dig in and find out!

 

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PITCHER

Tanner Roark FD 8700 DK 10500
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @WSH
FD - 37.49 DK - 23.61

Even with a lack of elite pitching on tonight's slate we still get some terrific value in a few pitchers who are heavy home favorites on Friday. Roark is one of these pitchers as the Nationals open the series against the Padres as -230 favorites as they go up against Luis Perdomo. That means Roark should have no issue with run support not that he has needed any lately.  In his last four starts plus two innings of relief he had limited opponents to six earned runs in 31.1 innings bringing his season ERA down to 2.82 to go with a 3.67 xFIP. The Padres present a great matchup as they rank 29th in wOBA and wRC+ vs. right handed pitching while striking out 24.5%of the time. Roark is safe in all formats tonight.

Gerrit Cole FD 8500 DK 7400
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @PIT
FD - 35.76 DK - 23.52

Gerrit Cole is the other pitcher who comes at a value price and sits in a great spot on Friday night. The Pirates come in as -225 home favorites as they open a series vs. the Phillies who rank 28th in wOBA vs. right handed pitching. Cole was rusty in his first start back from the disabled allowing seven hits and four earned in just four innings pitched last Saturday but showed some positive signs striking out five batters. His best value is on DraftKings at $7,400 where he should easily blow his value out of the water. While I don't fully trust him in cash games yet, I will have plenty of exposure in GPP's tonight.

 

 

CATCHER

Russell Martin FD 2600 DK 3600
Opponent - SEA (Paxton) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.07 DK - 7.72

After a brutal start to the year Martin has provided very consistent fantasy value lately. Over his last 15 games played he is hitting .298 with an impressive .385 OBP and 133 wRC+. He hits in the middle of the Jays powerful lineup giving him a ton of added value over other catchers in his price range. He has positive splits against southpaws and will face James Paxton who has been less than impressive since returning to the rotation in June. He is giving up a 33% hard contact rate which has resulted in a 4.56 ERA and a xFIP of 3.80 that isn't much better. Martin is safe in all formats at this price.

Willson Contreras FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.37 DK - 8.07

While I prefer Martin on FanDuel in the mid $2K range, I will pay the extra $300 on DraftKings and roll with Contreras tonight. He comes into Fridays game with hits in five straight and seven of his last eight games. He has hit for a slightly better average against lefties(.306) but has a much better wOBA(.393) and wRC+(147) against right handed pitching. The Cubs will face the Brewers and Jimmy Nelson who has been average at best this season. The strikeout rate is below average(6.55 K/9) and the walk rate is downright awful(3.95) but somehow he has salvaged a 3.39 ERA. I don't expect this to continue as the xFIP is much worse at 4.81. Contreras, like Martin, hits in the cleanup spot adding a ton of value at a very affordable price.

 

FIRST BASE

Miguel Cabrera FD 3700 DK 4400
Opponent - CHW (Turner) Park - @CHW
FD - 14.02 DK - 10.66

If you have been following our chatroom conversation lately you are probably like most of us and getting frustrated with the Tigers offense. While the stack hasn't worked out since they scored 12 against the Indians on July 6th, Miggy has been consistent. As of writing this the Tigers are up 2-1 on the White Sox in a rain delay and Cabrera has recorded two hits making it back to back multi hit efforts pushing his season average to .289 as he enters a terrific matchup on Friday.  Jacob Turner will make his second straight start for the short handed White Sox. In his first start the Angels crushed him from seven hits and eight earned runs in just four innings. Cabrera and the Tigers are in a great spot to break out of their offensive slump.

 

David Ortiz FD 4500 DK 5500
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @BOS
FD - 15.87 DK - 11.94

What more can Big Papi do in his final season. It's almost as if he is trying to convince the Hall of Fame committee one more time that he more than deserves to be there with the all time greats. With another monster game(3 for 5 with a HR and 4 RBI) last night he has pushed his average to .330 and now has 24 HR with 79 RBI. Papi now has hits in three straight and six of his last games as the Red Sox open a weekend series vs. the Twins who will throw Kyle Gibson to the wolves(or Red Sox) tonight. Fenway Park is a horrible place to enter when you have been struggling like Gibson. He has surrendered 17 hits and eight earned runs over his last two starts(11 IP). Look for the Red Sox to continue to punish weak pitching.

 

 

 

SECOND BASE

Daniel Murphy FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @WSH
FD - 12.42 DK - 9.9

The Nationals offense ranks 10th overall in runs scored this season in large part to the monster season Daniel Murphy is having. He is hitting a career high .351 with 18 HR and will soon pass his career high in RBI as well. He has been hitting in a great spot in the order directly ahead of Bryce Harper and taking advantage of the favorable pitches he has received. While his salary is about right on DraftKings, he comes at a bit of a discount on FanDuel as the 13th in salary at second base.

Derek Dietrich FD 2500 DK 3400
Opponent - NYM (Verrett) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.41 DK - 8.06

He finally broke out of his slump on Thursday with a three hit night against the Phillies which was his first multi hit game since July 6th. The extremely low .212 BABIP he has in July is another sign that the breakout is just starting.  Even with the slump he is till hitting .282 for the season for an elite .409 OBP and respectable 112 wRC+. He will be in a favorable spot Friday facing Logan Verrett making his third straight start for the Mets and has given up seven earned runs in his previous two. If you are looking to save some cash for the big hitters today Dietrich makes a perfect fit.

SHORTSTOP

Xander Bogaerts FD 3700 DK 4100
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.97 DK - 9.61

After a slow end to June and start of July, Xander is starting to heat back up. He has six hits during his current three game hit streak including a three hit effort last night in a win vs. the Twins in game one. Game two could be much of the same fate for the Twins as they will throw Kyle Gibson to the bump to face the #1 offense in baseball tonight. Gibson has given up 17 hits and eight earned runs in his last two starts and won't over the Red Sox with his 91 mph fastball and below average 9% swinging strike rate. The Red Sox have scored 24 runs in their last two games and I don't see them slowing down tonight. If you are not on board already there is still time to jump on.

Troy Tulowitzki FD 3200 DK 3300
Opponent - SEA (Paxton) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.86 DK - 8.28

It took the better part of three months into the 2016 season for the Jays to finally be getting back the value they had hoped for with Tulo. Since he has returned from the DL on June 18th he is hitting .307 with a .355 OBP, eight home runs and an above average 147 wRC+. He has helped the Jays climb back into the division race(1.5 games back) as they open a weekend series against the Mariners. Game one has the Jays and Tulo matching up against James Paxton who has been less than impressive with a 5.54 ERA and 4.60 xFIP over his last six starts.

 

THIRD BASE

Kris Bryant FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @MIL
FD - 13.32 DK - 10.23

Once again third base is absolutely stacked with great options at the top. You have Donaldson at home vs. a lefty, Arenado at home in Coors vs. "insert almost any pitcher", and Longoria who has been red hot lately and also facing a southpaw. All these great options help over shadow Kris Bryant tonight who comes at a bit of a value as the 4th most expensive on FanDuel and the 7th on DraftKings.  He comes with just as much, if not more, upside than those options with 25 HR, 65 RBI, 77 runs scored and a 149 wRC+ hitting third in the Cubs order. He is a slightly better hitter against southpaws but the likes of Jimmy Nelson and his 4.81 xFIP will not keep Bryant off the score sheet tonight.

Justin Turner FD 2900 DK 4900
Opponent - STL (Wacha) Park - @STL
FD - 10.55 DK - 8.22

When looking at the two sites you can usually point out a few price discrepancies that can create a ton of value on a  given night. Turner is that guy tonight on FanDuel. While he is a tick under $5K on DraftKings he remains a bargain under $3K on FanDuel. He is coming off a monster game Thursday afternoon where he hit two home runs off Stephen Strasburg and ended up driving in five. He has now recorded a multi hit game in four of his last six games including a double and four home runs. Take the savings and load up at other key positions.

 

OUTFIELD

Bryce Harper FD 4200 DK 5100
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @WSH
FD - 16.61 DK - 12.81

If you plan on fading the Colorado bats in the outfield tonight(I don't advise on all sites. See below) Bryace Harper is a great start to a solid high upside lineup tonight. The average is way down this year which may raise some red flags but the career low .245 BABIP(74 points below his career mark) points to much better days on the horizon. It is hard to argue his raw power and natural athletic ability and while he is struggling he still has a hard contact rate above 30% for the season(34% career average). He gets a matchup vs. Luis Perdomo who is a bt of an aberration this season. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher(57%) but is giving up an awful 21% HR/FB rate and a 33.6% hard contact rate. The ERA is atrocious at 7.36 and while the xFIP and BABIP suggest some positive regression his xFIP is still north of 4.00 for the season. Harper makes a terrific GPP play that could come with low ownership.

 

Carlos Gonzalez FD 3500 DK 5400
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @COL
FD - 14.47 DK - 11.11

As I mentioned above Harper makes a great pivot off the chalky Coors Field bats tonight but comes with some risk. If it's safety you are after I would side with Cargo tonight. He is starting to heat up and is now riding a three game hit streak after crushing a line drive three run bomb last night in a win over the Braves in game one. Julio Teheran went in to the All Star break struggling allowing five earned runs in back to back games but found some rhythm against these Rockies last time out holding them to five hits and zero runs. I don't see that happening twice, especially as Teheran will now have to face the same team in back to back outings....in Coors. He has been slightly worse on the road this year and has a 5.40 xFIP vs. left handed batters. Fire up Cargo once again tonight.

 

Jackie Bradley FD 3400 DK 4800
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.01 DK - 9.46

In his fourth season in the big leagues the Red Sox and fantasy owners are finally getting their return on value. Bradley is slashing .295/.375/.536 this season with 14 HR and a 137 wRC+. The success stems from the 7% reduction in strikeouts and giant leap in hard contact rate(32%-38%). He has put together back to back multi hit games while the Red Sox have scored 24 total runs and will be in a great spot once again to extend that streak. As I mentioned above Kyle Gibson and his 4.38 xFIP is not very good and should be heavily targeted tonight.

 

 

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