Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/23/16
Welcome to the weekend and Saturday baseball! We have a full 15 game all day slate with some interesting pitching options as well as some offenses in great spots. Make sure to check out our other articles as well as the will touch on more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise.
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Starting us off at pitcher, we have Max Scherzer. Scherzer is going to be our top option on the day and it is really not too close. The Nationals will have the honor of taking on the San Diego Padres, the worst team in the league against right handed pitching. In 2500 plate appearances this season, the Padres have sported a .283 wOBA that is backed up by a 24.6% K rate and an 81 wRC+ against righties. Max Scherzer on the other hand, has destroyed both lefties and righties on the season with a .250 combined wOBA that is held up by strong peripherals and batted ball numbers. Scherzer is going to be the highest owned pitcher on the day and he is a guy to lock and load in cash games.
While Scherzer is the easy cash game option, you never know what can happen in baseball. Therefore, there is always an argument to be made for some other guys in tournaments. The first of those few guys is going to be David Price, a pitcher who profiles very similarly to Scherzer when speaking in terms of pitch style and effectiveness. With a 3.41 xFIP and a 4.26 ERA, you can expect some serious improvements to David Price's numbers and production as the year progresses. The Red Sox will be taking on the Minnesota Twins, a team that has sported a .188 ISO and a 102 wRC+. If you are looking for a guy with strikeout and pitch count upside, Price is a guy to consider. If you are looking for some other guys, make sure to check out the pitcher specific article that will be released shortly.
While there are no offenses that stand out like a sore thumb, there are definitely a few that are in great spots. One of those is the Houston Astros, who will be taking on the aging right handed Jered Weaver. This far in 2016, Weaver has given up a .358 wOBA to right handers that is backed up by a 5.62 xFIP and a 38.8% hard contact rate. Gattis brings a ton of power to the table and with the short porch in left field, he has a pretty good shot at it. If Gattis is in the top 7 of the lineup, I think he can be considered in all formats across the field.
Nick Hundley FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @COL
FD - 10.96 DK - 8.57
If you are looking for a guy that is a bit more safer and is far less reliant on power, Nick Hundley is that guy. Over the past 2 seasons, Hundley has hit righties at a .428 wOBA, with a .468 wOBA at home in Coors Field against right handers. The Rockies will be taking on the Braves who will be trotting out a right hander in Matt Wisler. While Wisler profiles as a pretty good prospect, he has had his fair share of troubles against right handers. Dating back to his debut in 2015, Wisler has sported a 4.18 xFIP against right handers that is being deflated by a low BABIP and a low HR/FB rate. Neither of which will hold up well in Coors Field and Hundley will look to take take advantage.
David Ortiz FD 4400 DK 5600
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @BOS
FD - 16.05 DK - 12.07
David Ortiz is producing day in and day out and there is absolutely no reason to think Ricky Nolasco is the guy to slow him down. Nolasco has been bad against lefties over the past 2 seasons with a .332 wOBA that is backed up by poor peripherals and batted ball numbers. Ortiz, however, has destroyed righties this season with a .479 wOBA that is backed up by a ludicrous 46% hard contact rate. While Fenway is not a lefty friendly park, Ortiz is no average lefty and has no problem hitting it out of Fenway. Big Papi is still one of the best hitters in the league and is the top option at first base on all sites in all formats.
Jose Abreu FD 3400 DK 3100
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.93 DK - 9.14
While Abreu has had a serious power dip this season, his peripherals suggest that he is swinging the same bat and the power will come around. He will take on a left hander in Matt Boyd that has struggled against righties throughout his career with a .359 wOBA and 35% hard contact rate allowed. This game will take place in U.S. Cellular Field which comes in the top 10 for right handed power factor. While Abreu is by no means a safe play, he makes for an interesting play in tournaments, especially on DraftKings where he is only $3100.
Robinson Cano FD 3500 DK 5000
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.73
R.A. Dickey is a mystery every single time he takes the mound as we have no idea if his knuckleball will be moving or not. That being said, I look to target pure hitters against Dickey as that brings the best success rate against the average knuckler. If there is a such thing as a pure hitter, it is Robinson Cano. Cano has been one of the best hitters in the league this season and has mashed right, albeit being in a very pitcher friendly park when at home. However, the Rogers Centre brings a huge power upgrade and Cano will look to capitalize on just that.
Jose Altuve FD 3900 DK 5500
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.95 DK - 9.48
If you are looking for a guy with a bit more consistency that comes at a hefty price tag, that will be Jose Altuve. While Altuve surely hits lefties better than righties, there is still something to be said for his gaudy numbers overall. As I have already mentioned, the Astros are in a spectacular spot against Jered Weaver, who has actually been worse against righties this season than lefties. Altuve brings the type of power and speed upside that only a few in the league possess. He is always a spectacular cash game play and deserves some consideration in tournaments if you want to pay up for contrarian.
Javier Baez FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.46 DK - 7.6
Shortstop is a position that comes in pretty scarce tonight and we will be looking to find a guy that has consistency, upside and comes at a reasonable price. The first of which will be Javier Baez, who is taking on Zach Davies and the Milwaukee Brewers. Davies has been pretty good this season against righties with a 3.86 xFIP. However, his batted ball peripherals suggest that we will see some steep decline in the coming months. Baez on the other hand, has been swinging the bat well and has been stealing some bases as well. Baez makes for a terrific play in all formats across the industry.
Marcus Semien FD 2900 DK 4700
Opponent - TB (Smyly) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.42 DK - 8.29
Semien is a guy that has more power than any other shortstops as evident by his league leading (outside of Story) 20 home runs at the position. He will be taking on the Tampa Bay Rays and Drew Smyly, a left handed pitcher that has given up a .349 wOBA to right handers on the season.While the ballpark is not ideal, Semien obviously has the power to hit it out anywhere, especially his home ballpark. If you want a guy with a ton of upside at a low percentage owned, I would take a look at Marcus Semien. As a note, if he is moved up in the order, he makes for a great cash game play as well.
Jacob Lamb FD 3100 DK 0
Opponent - CIN (Sampson) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.49 DK - 8.93
Although we have a huge slate, like I mentioned, there are not too many options that really stand out. That being said, Jacob lamb may be as close as it comes to sticking out. He has destroyed right handers this season and will be taking on a poor one in the extremely hitter friendly great American Ballpark. Keyvius Sampson has sported a putrid .396 wOBA against lefties over the past 2 seasons and that putrid number is held up by a 5.60 xFIP and a 34% hard contact rate. Lamb makes for a great play in all formats, across the industry.
Adonis Garcia FD 3400 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 9.51 DK - 7.55
If you are looking to move off of Lamb for some reason, Adonis Garcia is a great way to pivot as he has plenty of upside in Coors Field. The Braves will be taking on Tyler Anderson. While Anderson profiles as a decent starter, he has had his fair share of trouble against right handed power. Dating back to his season debut, he has given up a .329 wOBA against righties at home. While Garcia hasn't been great, he mashed lefties last season with a .412 wOBA and some great supporting numbers. Garcia has the power to hit 2 home runs tonight and Coors Field will do its best to help out.
While this is only the 2nd Rockies bat mentioned, they all make for very good plays as Matt Wisler is not very good, just yet. Carlos Gonzalez on the other hand, is still a phenomenal hitter, especially against righties. So far in 2016, CarGo has hit righties to the tune of a .474 wOBA at home. Wisler will attempt to work his fastball on the inside corner of the plate and will not end up too. I am going to call the home run here as I expect Gonzalez to hit his 21st of the season. Ryan Raburn on the other hand, will likely be in the lineup and makes for a very interesting tournament play as he will be the lowest owned bat in the lineup.
Jeff Francoeur FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 6.21 DK - 4.9
Trust me, it is not too easy to roster Jeff Francouer. He is on the tail end of his career and is nowhere near the player he was about 10 years ago. that being said, he still has power against lefties and will do his best to show that of in the hitter haven that is Coors Field. As I mentioned, Tyler Anderson has struggled at home against right handers. While the Braves are tough to trust, this is one of the best spots they could possibly be in.
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- Max Scherzer: AP Photo - Eric Risberg