Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/27/16

Welcome back to another hump day edition of our daily fantasy baseball picks. It's Wednesday and we all know what that means. Split slate baseball. We have an excellent early slate with six games followed by a larger nine game slate that starts at 7:00 PM et. It is a very balanced dual slate day with a nice variety of top and mid tier pitching options with some nice spots for some of the offenses to explode for some runs. Let's dig in!

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Early Slate 

Madison BumgarnerMadison Bumgarner FD 11800 DK 13200
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @SF
FD - 40.52 DK - 26.5

After a sub par pitching slate on Tuesday we are welcomed with a elite ace on Wednesday. Bumgarner has been incredibly consistent in 2016 limiting opponents to two earned runs or less in 16 of his 21 starts with an impressive 2.14 ERA. He misses a ton of bats with an elite 10.16 K/9 rate which is padded by the leagues 13th best swinging strike rate of 11.6%. He is worth every dollar tonight as the Giants are big home favorites(-230) and Bumgarner has been much better at home with a 1.64 ERA while limiting opponents to a .177 average and .224 wOBA. The Reds have been playing well lately winning seven of their last 10 games(coming into Tuesday night) but still rank 20th in overall runs scored and 24th in wOBA vs. left handed pitching while striking out 23.3% of the time. MadBum is safe in all formats today.


Marco EstradaMarco Estrada FD 8600 DK 10200
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @TOR
FD - 37.2 DK - 22.97

He returned from a back injury last time out and got a bit unlucky vs. the Mariners as James Paxton completely shut down the Jays bats. Estrada struck out three and limited the Mariners to two earned runs on seven hits over six innings pitched. He will be in a great spot to pick up his 6th win of the season on Wednesday afternoon as the jays look to close out the series vs. the Padres with a big win. Look for Estrada to get his groove back vs. a Padres team that rank 29th in wOBA(.290) and K rate(24.6%) against right handed pitching. His best value is on FanDuel where he comes in with an affordable mid $8K price tag. UPDATE: Estrada will not start this game and will be replaced with R.A. Dickey

Evening Slate 

Jason HammelJason Hammel FD 8800 DK 9300
Opponent - CHW (Ranaudo) Park - @CHC
FD - 35.46 DK - 23.19

Looking at the evening slate we get a terrific value in Jason Hammel who comes in 6th in salary on FanDuel and 7th on Draftkings. As of writing this the Cubs are huge home favorites(-230) vs. the White Sox throwing a fill in starter out to the wolves. The Cubs offense should have no trouble scoring runs against Ranaudo who has made two relief appearances giving up seven earned runs in just 3.2 innings pitched while striking out just two batters and walking eight. Add to it that Hammel has been great lately winning back to back starts and has limited opponents to two earned runs or less in three straight and four of his last five starts. With a price under $10K on both sites I feel like Hammel is the chalk on the evening slate and a terrific play in all formats.


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Early Slate

Victor MartinezVictor Martinez FD 3700 DK 3500
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.65 DK - 8.91

Martinez is one of two excellent catching options on the early slate with a nice matchup. He has cooled off in July but starting to get back on track with hits in four straight games. He has near identical splits vs. left handed and right pitching and gets a matchup vs. Eduardo Rodriguez who is sporting and awful 5.08 SIERA and giving up a 30.9% hard contact rate. The K rate(6.48 K/9) is below average and the walk rate(3.24 BB/9) is not fit for the major leagues and he has given up at least one home run in seven straight starts. While Martinez is one of the most expensive catchers on FanDuel he qualifies as a 1B on DraftKings at a value price.

Russell MartinRussell Martin FD 3000 DK 3100
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.69 DK - 8.96

If catcher is a spot you like to save at, Martin make s an excellent value play tonight right around the $3K mark on both sites. He started the season ice cold hitting just .217 with 29.3% K rate from April to June but has since picked up the pace hitting .261 since June 1st with an impressive .379 OBP while bring the K rate down to 24%. He gets a favorable matchup on Wednesday against Luis Perdomo who is experiencing some growing pains after making the jump from Single-A to the majors. He is walking a below average amount of batters(3.29 BB/9) and getting punished when doing so with a 21.1% HR/FB rate and 6.93 ERA. Look for Martin to pay off his salary in a big way on Wednesday. Update: With the switch to Dickey, Martin will not be in lineup. Thole catches R.A.

Evening Slate 

Willson ContrerasWillson Contreras FD 3100 DK 4000
Opponent - CHW (Ranaudo) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.6 DK - 8.25

After a day off on Tuesday we can expect Contreras back in the Cubs lineup Wednesday evening. While he has cooled off a bit in July after a solid start to his career, things are starting to pick up as he has recorded hits in two straight and seven of his last nine games. His July K rate is also a bit lower than his season mark of 26% and even with the recent struggles he is still slashing .282/.373/.479 with an impressive 130 wRC+. THe Cubs and Contreras get a great matchup vs. Anthony Ranaudo who is making his first start of the season. He has made two long relief efforts this season which have not been pretty as he has surrendered seven earned runs in just 32 innings pitched.




Early Slate 

David OrtizDavid Ortiz FD 4300 DK 5500
Opponent - DET (Fulmer) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.82 DK - 11.15

With Ortiz's huge power upside and clutch hitting ability it only takes one hit for him to crush his value. He proved this again last night as he only recorded one hit, but it was a big one. A three run homer, his 25th of the season to go along with a 84 RBI and 50 runs scored. He is having his best overall statistical season since 2007 as he is slashing .330/.420/.664 with an elite 178 wRC+. In his final season he has a chance to carry the Red Sox to another World Series title and he is doing everything he can to put the entire city on his back. The matchup isn't elite against Fulmer but he is one pitcher we have all been waiting to see a regression from. He has been impressive with a 2.41 ERA and 8.13 K/9 rate but the xFIP of 3.86 and strand rate of 81% suggest he will come crashing down. Enter the Red Sox at Fenway park.

Evening Slate

Matt AdamsMatt Adams FD 2600 DK 3900
Opponent - NYM (Verrett) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.44

Paying up for Rizzo or Goldy is one way to go on Wednesday evening. It is going to cost you a large percentage of your salary cap on both sites which has the projections system leaning towards the value side of things at first base tonight. Adams is over priced on DraftKings but comes in at a mid $2K price on FanDuel presenting a terrific opportunity. He has been a streaky hitter throughout the season preventing me from using him in cash games but he has power upside that can be dangerous when combined with low ownership. Hewill be facing Logan Verrett who has struggled n the road with a 5.00 ERA and 5.57 xFIP and has given up a 35% hard contact rate vs. left handed batters.

Chris DavisChris Davis FD 3800 DK 3200
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.91 DK - 10.38

While I much rather prefer Adams on FanDuel tonight, I will take a shot in GPP's with Crush Davis. He has been recovering from the flu which kept him out of three games last week and he has yet to record a hit since returning. This will force almost everyone in anther direction making him a  perfect contrarian play. Much like David Ortiz it only takes one swing for Davis to make value as he has elite power upside with the 9th most HR's(187) since the start of the 2010 season. He may not be safe for cash games but could be a tourny winning play on Wednesday night.



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Early Slate 

Dustin PedroiaDustin Pedroia FD 3600 DK 4200
Opponent - DET (Fulmer) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.55

I normally like finding my punt value at second base on most slates but today is going to be a day to pay up at the position in cash games. Most of the value options are either in bad matchups or stuck at the bottom of the lineup. Pedroia will provide you with a very consistent box score and comes in with a six game hit streak pushing his slash line up to .305/.372/.449 for the season. If you are playing Ortiz and planning on stacking the Red Sox you better have some exposure to Pedroia who hits in front of Big Papi and has scored 65 runs to this point in the season.

Evening Slate

Jean SeguraJean Segura FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @MIL
FD - 8.8 DK - 7.77

This is one spot I am a little more optimistic on a player than the projection system and I will tell you why. It comes down t the matchup vs. Jimmy Nelson. He has an awful 4.01 BB/9 rate and Segura comes in with a .362 OBP and if he gets free passes can terrorize a pitcher on the base paths with his speed(17 SB so far in 2016). While Nelson's ERA is respectable at 3.40, the xFIP of 4.84 suggests he is closer to the pitcher we have seen over the last few seasons. Either way it's a great matchup for the Diamondbacks today and I can see this being one of the top scoring games of the entire day.




Early Slate

Troy TulowitzkiTroy Tulowitzki FD 2900 DK 4500
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.51 DK - 8.78

The 10 game hit streak came to an end on Tuesday night but it appears Tulo has turned his season around after a slow start to his first full season in Toronto. In July he is hitting .338 with a .369 OBP and impressive 138 wRC+. With Bautista out of the lineup he picked up the slack driving in 25 runs helping to keep the Jays in the thick of the playoff race.  The Jays are red hot right now winning three straight and six of their last seven games and will look to bring out the brooms before a much needed off day on Thursday. Look for a big game from the offense against Luis Perdomo who has been less than impressive this season with a 6.93 ERA ERA/4.04 xFIP and 21% HR/FB rate. While the DraftKings algorithm has caught up to his improved game at the plate, he is still a tremendous value on FanDuel coming in under $3k today.


Xander BogaertsXander Bogaerts FD 3300 DK 4400
Opponent - DET (Fulmer) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.3 DK - 9.07

Neither DFS site has caught up to the current hot streak that Bogaerts is on right now. He has picked up a hit in eight straight games pushing his season average to .332 and is a player that contributes in all offensive categories. He is getting on base at a .386 clip, stole 12 bases in 15 attempts and scored 74 runs. He also adds pop to the Red Sox lineup with 24 doubles, 11 home runs and 65 RBI.  You can't go wrong with either option today but I prefer Tulo on FanDuel and Xander on DraftKings.


Evening Slate

Aledmys DiazAledmys Diaz FD 2700 DK 5100
Opponent - NYM (Verrett) Park - @NYM
FD - 9.9 DK - 7.85

This is another FanDuel only pick, at least for cash games tonight. The price difference is pretty significant as he is over $5K on DraftKings and comes in under $3K on FanDuel. For some reason the FanDuel algorithms don't react as fast to a hot streak. It baffles me as Diaz's hot streak has been burning strong for over a month now. Since June 20th he is slashing .354/.458/.616 with an elite 187 wRC+. He has also shown some pop with five home runs in that time while adding 21 RBI and 17 runs scored. Take the value and run to the next position. At his high price tag on DraftKings he makes an extremely contrarian option that could be very low owned.



Early Slate

Josh DonaldsonJosh Donaldson FD 4700 DK 5400
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @TOR
FD - 14.27 DK - 10.84

The pickings are pretty slim at the 3B position in the early slate today. You have Donaldson at the top then a pretty big gap down to the next tier of Justin Turner, Nick Castellanos and Evan Longoria. I will be overweight on Donaldson who is not only one of the most dangerous hitters in the big leagues but also gets one of the best matchups at 3B. He is facing Luis Perdomo who has been a ground ball pitcher(58%) but has struggled with the long ball giving up 12 HR in nine starts for an ugly 21% HR/FB rate and 32% hard contact rate.

Evening Slate

Manny MachadoManny Machado FD 3800 DK 3500
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.33 DK - 10.47

Machado has seen a big drop in salary recently bring his price below $4K on both sites. While he let us down last night in a great spot the projection system has no recency bias and has him pegged as one of the top PTS/$ plays again on Wednesday. Machado is one of the most talented players in the league and while he has completely dropped the run game from his arsenal(0 steals after having 20 last season), he continues to provide power upside. So far in 2016 he has recorded 20 home runs, 56 RBI and 67 runs scored for an impressive 140 wRC+. The matchup isn't elite by any means but the price is right and Machado should once again be the chalk at 3B in cash games. Fade at your own risk!


Adrian BeltreAdrian Beltre FD 3500 DK 5100
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.47 DK - 9.56

If you want to get away from the chalky Machado tonight, Beltre makes a terrific pivot on FanDuel at a $300 discount. He also makes a very contrarian GPP play on DraftKings at $5,100. He has been on a tear over the last week hitting .435 with three home runs, 7 RBI and six runs scored. The matchup is elite for Beltre today as he mashes left handed pitching(.385 wOBA/137 wRC+) while Manaea struggles mightily against right handed batters(.331 wOBA/9 HR).


Early Slate

Michael SaundersMichael Saunders FD 4000 DK 4600
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.48 DK - 10.37
Kevin PillarKevin Pillar FD 2700 DK 3400
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.25 DK - 8.52

More Jays. Two options for you actually. If you grab some value at pitching and want to to pay up for an outfielder in the early slate Saunders is a high upside play hitting in the middle of the lineup. I won't dig into the matchup more than I already have as you most likely get the point that Perdomo is prone to giving up the long ball and the Jays are a team that can punish him in a big way. If you spend up at pitching and roll with MadBum but still want some exposure to the Jays, consider Pillar at a value price tag, especially for cash games. He provides a sneaky power/speed combo(7 HR and 8 SB in 2016) from the bottom half of the lineup and is always very low owned.

Justin UptonJustin Upton FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.33 DK - 8.88

The Red Sox/Tigers game is currently sitting with the largest run total(10.5) of the entire slate. The Tigers will be the less chalky of the two teams and have a terrific matchup vs. Eduardo Rodriguez who has had a tough time living up to last years great season. Through eight starts in 2016 he has struggled with control(3.24 BB/9) which has resulted in some lopsided totals for the other team. His ERA currently sits at 6.70 while the xFIP isn't much better at 5.34. Upton didn't have the greatest start to his time with the Tigers but has recently been swinging a hot bat with hits in five straight and eight of his last nine games. Ride the hot streak. Go Tigers!


Evening Slate 

Miguel SanoMiguel Sano FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.76 DK - 9.62

While the safety may not be there for cash games with the streaky Sano, the projection system has a man crush on his upside tonight. He is projected as the second highest outfielder on the entire slate from a PTS/$ perspective. He strikes out way too much(33%)  but it is hard to deny the power he provides. He comes into Wednesday night 15 home runs and a very impressive .219 ISO on the season and he is only going to get better as he just recently turned 23 years old. He gets an elite matchup vs. Foltynewicz who has really struggled on the road this year with a 4.64 ERA while allowing opponents to hit for a .293 average and 34.6% hard contact rate.



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9 Visitor Comments

  1. Agree with and like most of your picks. Estrada has been replaced with Dickey who also might not be a terrible play as a pitcher # 2 on DK to pair with madbum if he gets the run support we all expect. Also with Upton JR getting traded to Toronto some of these outfielders might lose PT. It won’t be Bautista or Saunders obviously so that leaves Pillar as the odd man out on most days. For the Early slate I’m also liking some of these Giants who have favorable prices especially on DK. If I had to pick 3 to pair with Madbum I’d say Belt, Crawford and Posey who are all very affordable and should do most of the damage vs this Red’s pitcher.

    Also an alternative to Madbum on FD if for some reason anyone thinks he will not do well or can just not seem to build a nice lineup around him. Adam Conley has great numbers vs Philly and would really allow you spend up.

  2. apparently you don’t follow chicago baseball much i’m from Chicago and you do know that Jason Hammel Has gotten Lit up by the White Sox Everytime he’s faced them. Fact

  3. No confidence in fullmer that’s slot of red sox up

  4. While Hammel’s numbers against the Chisox are terrible, he hasn’t faced them since 2013 when he was with Baltimore. I wasn’t leaning towards him anyway but his past wouldn’t scare me off if I were.

  5. Chicago native I’ve won tons every year predicting the outcome of the cross town classic. Hammel will definitely get rocked today

    • How did that work out for you? Chicago Native who knows it all! SMH

  6. It worked out great for me I won 500 tonight

  7. I had a Arizona & Pittsburgh stack with McCullers pitching 2 of my batters got me 0’s tho only 35 points out of 1st and played my team 10 times winning 50 x 10 as we speak so yea I still know it all

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