Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/5/16

TGIF!!! It's a been a long week and I am extremely happy to see the calendar turn to Friday. After a week of seeing the Twins destroy Indians pitching I would be extremely happy to see things return to normal. Tonight we have all 30 teams playing on the main slate that starts at 7:00 pm et. Be sure to check out all of our other content that is published throughout the day leading up to lineup lock. We are also available throughout the day in the new chat tool no the DFSR website.


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Justin VerlanderJustin Verlander FD 9900 DK 13600
Opponent - NYM (Syndergaard) Park - @DET
FD - 36.61 DK - 24.3

The pitching position is much better today and it is led by Justin Verlander. The run total(7.5) is the lowest on the slate and the Tigers are early -130 home favorites. If pitching duels are your thing this will be the game to tune into tonight as the Tigers will face Thor and the Mets. Verlander has been elite since the beginning of July limiting opponents to a .169 average and two earned runs or less in all six starts. His ERA over that time is 1.69 and he has elevated his K rate to over 10 per nine innings. The Mets have struggled vs. right handed pitching this season ranking 21st in wOBA(.307) with the 9th highest K rate(22.3%). I prefer him FanDuel tonight and will play in all formats at a price under $10K but will limit my exposure to GPP's on DraftKings where he is a bit over priced in the mid $13K range.


Jaime GarciaJaime Garcia FD 7800 DK 6900
Opponent - ATL (de la Cruz) Park - @STL
FD - 32.1 DK - 21.07

This pick has more do with price and opportunity than current form. Garcia comes in very cheap on both sites and the Cardinals are the biggest favorites(-220) on the board. He will be at home tonight where he has been much better this year limiting opponents to a .227 average and .281 wOBA. The matchup vs. the Braves is also very favorable as they rank dead last in wOBA(.286) against southpaws with an ugly 76 wRC+ and 20% K rate for the season. Garcia's low price point allows you the flexibility to completely load up on bats tonight.
Jameson TaillonJameson Taillon FD 7400 DK 7800
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @PIT
FD - 30.73 DK - 20.26

Despite the losing four of their last five games the Pirates are still in the thick of a playoff race sitting just 2.5 games back in the National League Wildcard. Every game moving forward will be huge and it starts with a weekend series vs. the Reds. In game one the Bucs will throw Jameson Taillon to the bump and sit as early -150 home favorites. In his rookie season he has continually gotten better and has gone six innings in four straight starts and limited opponents to two earned runs or less in three of those starts. The K rate is average(7.24 K/9) but should continue to rise but the most impressive part is that he is walking less than a batter per nine. He gets a favorable matchup to build on those numbers as the Reds rank 23rd in wOBA(.305) with 21.7% K rate vs. right handed pitching and those take a hit now that Jay Bruce has been shipped out of town. Taillon is safe in all formats.
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Brian McCannBrian McCann FD 2800 DK 3100
Opponent - CLE (Tomlin) Park - @NYY
FD - 9.84 DK - 7.38

McCann is very streaky hitter that is currently in a bit of a groove. He has recorded a hit in nine straight nine games despite the Yankees losing six of their 10 games. The price is attractive on both sites making him a safe choice in any format. His biggest strength is his power upside and matchup is right up his alley. Tomlin is striking out less than 6.5 batters per nine and has given up at least one home run in nine straight and 16 of his last 17 starts for an awful 17% HR/FB rate.


Willson ContrerasWillson Contreras FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - OAK (Overton) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.25 DK - 8.76

He doesn't come with the upside that McCann brings but he is a little more consistency with a .271/.363/.443 slash line. He comes into Friday night with a four game hit streak where he has picked up 3 RBI and a stolen base. The Cubs get one of the best matchup of the slate vs. Dillon Overton who won't likely be hanging around the big leagues for long. In his first four starts he has surrendered 34 hits and 19 earned runs in just 18.2 innings and has given up nine...YES nine home runs. The park isn't great but the matchup cannot be ignored.


Nick HundleyNick Hundley FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - MIA (Phelps) Park - @COL
FD - 10.37 DK - 8.1

The first mention of a player in Coors tonight. DraftKings has accounted for the home matchup and priced him just above $4K. I would only consider him in tournaments for that reason. FanDuel is a different story where you can get him under $3K making him one of the top value options on the site tonight. He isn't a flashy play by any means but provides a nice floor in a matchup in the best hitters park in the league.



Matt AdamsMatt Adams FD 3400 DK 3900
Opponent - ATL (de la Cruz) Park - @STL
FD - 12.65 DK - 9.81

From a PTS/$ perspective the projection is in love with the value plays at first base tonight headlined by Matt Adams. It will be tough to trust him in cash games as he is hitting just .214 since July 10th but has been getting on base with a 11% walk rate. The pick is more about the matchup as the leagues 3rd highest scoring team will go up against another one of the gas cans on the mound tonight. After impressing out of the bullpen the last few weeks he made a spot start against the Phillies and while he limited them to three hits in four innings he didn't strike anyone out and walked two. He was torched in his two starts earlier in the season giving up seven earned runs while striking out just five batters. If he continues to give up a ton of contact to the opposition he is going to get burned. Enter the Cardinals.


Jose AbreuJose Abreu FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.65 DK - 8.92

It appears the bat could finally be waking up for Abreu. He comes into tonight with hits in three straight including hitting his first home run since June 23rd yesterday vs. Tigers. The recent struggles have kept the price in a very affordable mid tier range making him a value play on almost any slate. Yovani Gallardo should not provide much resistance to the White Sox offense tonight with his low K rate(6.51 K/9) and extremely high walk rate(5.16 BB/9). Gallardo's biggest problems have come on the road where he has allowed teams to hit for a .296 average while pitching to a brutal 7.32 ERA.


Adam LindAdam Lind FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - LAA (Lincecum) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.06 DK - 8.52

If he is starting on Friday night, Lind makes a nice low owned first basemen with some big power upside. He has been extremely inconsistent this season hitting just .228 with his new club but has added 16 home runs and has very strong career splits vs. right handed pitching. He will go up against Tim Lincecum who is somehow still in the league. Like dude must be paying someone off to finish the season out or the Angels are just that desperate. Since his first start where he limited the the A's to just one earned run, Lincecum has surrendered 32 earned runs in just 29 innings pitched giving up a whopping 10 home runs. Lind could easily blow his salary out of the water on Friday.
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Robinson CanoRobinson Cano FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - LAA (Lincecum) Park - @SEA
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.53

I wasn't even able to get one more pick in before picking on Tim Lincecum once again. If for some reason you missed my spiel above in the Lind write up I ask you to go back up and check out the part about how bad Lincecum has been. In short, he has been real bad since making his way back to the major leagues. Cano on the other hand is having his best offensive season since coming over from the Yankees three years ago. He has obviosuly been better on the road away from Safeco but still has good numbers at home. He has a .342 wOBA, 122 wRC+ and 10 home runs on home soil. Bombs away.


Jose AltuveJose Altuve FD 4200 DK 5100
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.52 DK - 10.85

Altuve is arguably having his best season as a pro with career highs home runs(19), average(.359), Slugging %(.572) and wRC+(166). He will also be setting career highs in runs and RBI here very shortly. Altuve has absolutely terrorized left handed pitching for his career with a .395 wOBA and 153 wRC+ and gets a very favorable matchup vs. southpaw Martin Perez tonight. Perez has only struck out jsut over four batters per nine this season with a walk rate very close to that. The 4.22 ERA could very easily get worse as the 4.89 xFIP would indicate. He proves to be no match for the Astros and Altuve tonight.


Greg GarciaGreg Garcia FD 2400 DK 3500
Opponent - ATL (de la Cruz) Park - @STL
FD - 9.33 DK - 7.61

As I mentioned earlier the Cardinals are in a great spot to put up some runs vs. spot starter Joel De La Cruz tonight. If Greg Garcia gets the start and hits leadoff he makes a nice high floor option at a very affordable price. In limited starts this year with a ton of pinch hitting duties Garcia has managed a .292 average and very impressive .419 on base percentage. He is a very patient hitter(15.5% BB rate) and has factored in to the Cards offense when he plays with a 132 wRC+ for the season. Be sure to check lineups prior to lineup lock or join in on the chat throughout the day.




Carlos CorreaCarlos Correa FD 4000 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.72 DK - 9.41

The projections are really favoring the Astros vs. southpaw Martin Perez tonight. He is a little higher rated on DraftKings where he comes at a bit of a value as the 10th most expensive option at the position but he is very viable option on both sites. Correa has been very consistent lately hitting .313 with a .416 OBP since mid July with a 146 wRC+. He has lacked home runs which hurt him a bit in the cleanup spot which has me only recommending him for cash games or as a part of Astros stack tonight.


Javier BaezJavier Baez FD 2700 DK 4700
Opponent - OAK (Overton) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.86 DK - 8.72

As you will see in my Hitters Stack Article I absolutely love the Cubs offense tonight. They are huge favorites(-215) facing one of the worst pitchers on the slate. Dillon Overton, in his first four starts, is pitching to a 9.33 ERA which isn't obviously sustainable but it won't get much better as the xFIP sits at 6.72 for the season. Baez provides some power upside at the shortstop position and Overton has surrendered nine home runs in his first 18.1 innings pitched. I can't see myself paying top dollar for Baez on DraftKings but will have heavy exposure on FanDuel at $2.7K tonight.



Jedd GyorkoJedd Gyorko FD 2700 DK 4500
Opponent - ATL (de la Cruz) Park - @STL
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.77

The Cardinals offense let us down last night but we can't let that affect our decision making tonight. The projection system knows not of any recency bias and once again loves the spot for Jedd Gyorko. He has been hot since the start of July slashing .293/.341/.610 with eight home runs and a 150 wRC+. His value skyrockets if he is again back in the two hole of the Cards lineup and his best value comes on FanDuel where he comes in under $3K.

Jacob LambJacob Lamb FD 2800 DK 5000
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.75 DK - 9.13

Outside of Alex Bregman, who the projection system loves, no batter at the position has a higher PTS/$ projection on FanDuel than Jacob Lamb. He comes into Friday with home runs in two straight and has hits in five of his last six games. In his second full season in the bigs Lamb is crushing his career highs with a .281 average, 23 home runs, 69 RBI and 55 runs scored. The young, up and coming star makes a great play in any format on FanDuel but I would reserve him for GPP's at $5K on DraftKings.

Maikel FrancoMaikel Franco FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @SD
FD - 10.2 DK - 7.87

In his second full season Franco has improved on his overall power numbers by increasing the HR/FB rate and hard contact rate. By doing this he has seen a dip in the average which has helped keep his price point in a very affordable range. Franco comes with big power upside, especially vs. left handed pitching where has a .369 wOBA, .250 ISO and 130 wRC+. The park isn't great but he should be a very low owned option in tournaments with a nice matchup vs. Friedrich and his 4.87 xFIP.


Bryce HarperBryce Harper FD 3900 DK 4800
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @WSH
FD - 14.64 DK - 11.29

By some of the comments in chat some of you are sick of hearing about Bryce Harper. I get it. He isn't producing elite fantasy numbers right now like we know he can. This is why the price is no longer in the elite level as he sits outside the Top 10 in salary on both sites. I assure you Harper is still an elite hitter, like Top 5 in the league elite. Until the price reflects his overall talent he makes a great play day in and day out. What adds to the play is that most people are sick of playing him forcing the ownership way down. He will rebound! Get on the band wagon and get the best seat for the trip while the price of admission is still low.

Marcell OzunaMarcell Ozuna FD 3700 DK 5400
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 12.95 DK - 10.02
Giancarlo StantonGiancarlo Stanton FD 4800 DK 5200
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 15.31 DK - 11.55

If you're looking for big upside tonight take a look at these pair of Marlins sluggers. Ozuna is the much safer option hitting just shy of .300 with an impressive .352 on base percentage. He has  found the power he showed two years ago and sits with 19 home runs on the season. Everything matches up as the Marlins get a huge park shift going into Coors Field and Ozuna has crushes left handed pitching season with a .458 wOBA and 190 wRC+.

Stanton comes with more raw power and can hit a ball farther than any other human(assuming he is...actually human). Like Ozuna he also crushes left handed pitching with a .397 wOBA and 149 wRC+. The issue with Stanton in cash games is the inconsistency with a 31.5% K rate and price tag that has caught up on both sites.
David PeraltaDavid Peralta FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.56 DK - 9.13

Peralta is finally starting to look healthy after missing over five weeks on the disabled list with a back sprain. In six games(four starts) since returning he has picked up four hits including two doubles and a triple.  On a PTS/$ basis there is no other outfielder with better value tonight, especially on FanDuel. It was also positive to see the manager move him back up to 5th in the lineup and if he continues to impress could be moved back into the cleanup spot where he spent a ton of time in the first half of the season.



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11 Visitor Comments

  1. Solid picks. Only thing that worries me about Verlander is his price today is a lot higher than it has been recently so you NEED him to have a great game to hit value. The complete game last time out makes me think he will only go about 6 maybe 7 tonight. Risky considering Noah is going on the other side. Without Cespedes Mets offense is not as good but they do throw out some nice lefties to combat him.

  2. Why are U still writing up the Red Sox daily?. They are ice cold and playing in pitchers parks. Coldest team in baseball. The hard hit rates and k% and gb/fb% are helpful to know where a pitcher is susceptible but cold is cold. If a team is slumping, and it’s a 15 game slate, there’s no reason to go there. Houston is slumping too. Seems like every day the write up blindly includes Altuve and Pedroia.

    • Are you reading the right article? There isn’t one Red Sox player mentioned here.

      Also, “cold is cold” isn’t really analysis. The Red Sox are among the elite offenses in baseball.

  3. Your website and analysis are fantastic!. The picks are very helpful for both DK and FD. The one thing that’s lacking is the editing. Do you guys edit the posts?

    • Carl Yastremski.
      (Red Sox are cold, but they had 13 hits last night)

  4. I count zero Red Sox in this article….

  5. I wouldnt touch verlander. Mets will score runs and mets will win the game

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