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Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 92 - 8/6/16
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Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?
VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)
Maryna Moroz ($10,900)
Vegas Line: -270
Finish Prop: +140
Career Record: 7-1
UFC Record: 2-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.24
Finishes: 1 KO / 5 Subs / 5 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision - Cristina Stanciu
On a really wacky card, I'm pointing towards some standard factors before loading up on Maryna Moroz. The 24-year old Ukrainian's opponent is Danielle Taylor, a UFC rookie making her debut on short notice - check and check. Moroz has proven herself to be incredibly tough, hence the nickname "The Iron Woman", and in her UFC debut she recorded a first-round submission win over standout Joanne Calderwood. Moroz's lone loss came last summer at the hands of UFC title challenger Valerie Latourneau. Moroz should simply out-class Taylor, who has not been that dominant even at the regional circuit. I'm a little worried about the output in this fight if Moroz doesn't get a finish - but I just don't see this one getting out of the first round. Moroz is a solid option in all formats and is much more affordable than Teruto Ishihara, who's priced at $11,500
Prediction: Moroz - 1st Round TKO
MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)
Marcin Tybura ($9,500)
Vegas Line: -140
Finish Prop: +124
Career Record: 13-2
UFC Record: 0-1
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.20
Finishes: 5 KO / 6 Subs / 9 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO
Last Time Out: L, Unanimous Decision - Timothy Johnson
So....Marcin Tybura is a -140 at $9,500 - thanks DraftKings. The value here seems too good to be true as Tybura is a heavyweight who can turn out the lights with one punch or secure an early submission. It's also worth noting that he should have about 10 lbs on his opponent, Viktor Pesta, who took a nap last time out (9 months ago) thanks to Derrick Lewis. Tybura did lose his last time out, but I think it was a case of the UFC jitters. He looked hesitant in the first two rounds before looking like a totally different fighter and dominating the third round, losing a unanimous decision. I don't see that happening to Tybura a second time. The danger here is that anything can happen in a heavyweight fight but the stoppage potential, the odds, and the price make Tybura an appealing play in all formats.
Prediction: Krylov - 1st Round Submission (RNC)
UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)
Santiago Ponzinibbio ($9,400)
Vegas Line: -155
Finish Prop: +167
Career Record: 22-3
UFC Record: 4-2
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.24
Finishes: 13 KO / 6 Subs / 12 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 2 KO
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round TKO - Court McGee
There are a handful of guys I really like under $9,500, so I'll talk about the guy my stats model likes the most in Santiago Ponzinibbio. It's easy to see why, another favorite (-155) with good finish potential (+167) at a price point of $9,400. Ponzinibbio's history is nothing to sneeze at either as he's coming off of back-to-back first round victories, including a stoppage of Court McGee. Ponzinibbio also has one of the higher strikes landed per minute rates on the card at 4.24. I don't see Zak Cummings being able to finish Ponzinibbio, and with a higher output the Argentinian should be able to overwhelm Cummings throughout the fight. Again, the price just lends itself to fitting Ponzibbio in all formats. A quick heads up on the last two guys - they are plays with flipped odds and should be solid in cash games but you may need some more lineup variation to score big in GPPs.
Prediction: Ponzinibbio - 2nd Round TKO
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UFC 201
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image sources
- UFC_74_Respect_Bout: By Lee Brimelow (cropped from DSC_0029) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
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Posting anything for this Saturday?
Nice.