Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/6/16
Welcome to Saturday baseball! We have an 11 game game main slate on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position!
Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with MLB Optimal Lineups, Projections and Player Cards. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL as well! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.
A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!
The pitcher position is a very interesting one tonight as there is nobody at all that sticks out above the rest. That being said, Archer is likely going to be my top option on the main slate. While Archer is insanely hard to trust, who else are you going to trust? Carlos Rodon? Aaron Sanchez? nope. None of these guys are trustworthy, which leaves me with the guy that has some built in strikeouts, which is Archer. Archer and the rays will be taking on the Minnesota Twins, who have ruined some of our dreams as of late. However, we have to trust the larger sample size that tells us they are a strikeout prone, right handed heavy team that struggles against right handed K pitchers.
The pitcher position is a pretty tough one tonight and there is only 2 guys I am really considering, Arrieta and Carlos Martinez. Arrieta, my favorite, is taking on the Oakland Athletics on the road in pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum. The Athletics are absolutely atrocious against righties on the year with a .304 wOBA that is backed up by a 19% K rate and a 91 wRC+. Arrieta on the other hand, has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league this year with a sub .260 wOBA against both right handers and left handers. While nobody is very safe on this slate, Arrieta is as close as you will get. If you are looking to pay down a bit, I would take a look at Carlos Martinez.
On the early slate, you have to take a look at Corey Kluber. Kluber and the Indians will be taking on the New York Yankees, a team that has sported a putrid .302 wOBA that is backed up by a .696 OPS and a 20% strikeout rate. While Kluber is not the same pitcher as he was in 2013, he is still a very good pitcher. Kluber has supported a sub .279 wOBA against both righties and lefties. Aside from a great wOBA, he has also exhibited a 3.17 xFIP and a 27% hard contact rate. With the early slate only consisting of a few games, Kluber is right up there with Arrieta.
Victor Martinez FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent - NYM (Verrett) Park - @DET
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.93
Victor Martinez is going to start us off at catcher as the Tigers are taking on Logan Verrett, a right handed youngster that has struggled mightily since entering the majors. Martinez, however, has been dominant against righties over the last few seasons with a .361 wOBA that is backed up by supreme peripheral stats. Touching on Verrett, he has struggled against lefties this season with a .319 wOBA that is heavily inflated by his BABIP and HR/FB rate. On FanDuel, Martinez is almost a must play. At a position that lacks both safety and upside, he gives you both at a generous $3100 price tag.
Jacob Realmuto FD 3700 DK 4600
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 9.87 DK - 8.11
If you are looking for a guy that will be lower owned and has similar upside, Jacob "J.T." Realmuto is the guy to look at. The Marlins are in Colorado and will look to take advantage of the insane altitude upgrade. The Marlins will be facing off with Chad Bettis, albeit a decent pitcher, he struggles in Coors Field as most pitchers do. At home, Bettis has given up a .348 wOBA that is supported by a 36% hard contact rate and a 23% line drive rate. Realmuto is a decent hitter who has a bit of upside, especially if he is hitting high in the order.
Miguel Cabrera FD 3900 DK 5300
Opponent - NYM (Verrett) Park - @DET
FD - 14.22 DK - 10.81
This is going to be our second Detroit Tigers bat against the weak right in Logan Verrett. As I mentioned, Logan Verrett is a bad pitcher and he will almost certainly struggle here against the Tigers potent lineup. While Miguel Cabrera has struggled a bit overall this year, he is still a very great hitter. Against righties in particular, Cabrera has sported a .417 wOBA that is backed up by a 39% hard contact rate and a 22.3% HR/FB rate. In cash games, Cabrera is the top option. In tournaments, Cabrera is a great option, though not my favorite.
Freddie Freeman FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - STL (Chatwood) Park - @STL
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.42
Ryan Howard FD 2300 DK 3700
Opponent - SD (Clemens) Park - @SD
FD - 9.4 DK - 7.11
If you are looking to pay down a ton in tournaments, take a look at Ryan Howard. While Howard is no longer the hitter he used to be, he is still a powerful left hander that can go yard against anyone. The Phillies will be taking on Paul Clemens, a right handed gas can that has been absolutely atrocious against both lefties and righties. Against lefties, he has sported a 4.27 xFIP to go along with a rediculous 55% hard contact rate and a 7.7% HR/FB rate. While the perception of Petco Park is that of an extreme pitcher park, it is actually a neutral ballpark for left handed power. While I recommend steering way clear in cash games, I will have a ton of exposure in tournaments.
Dee Gordon FD 4200 DK 4700
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 10.84 DK - 10.43
Moving on to second base, we are going to take a look at Dee Gordon. Gordon has returned from his suspension and has already accounted for 3 stolen bases, with 2 of those coming last night. As I mentioned, the Marlins are taking on Chad Bettis who struggles mightily at home. Dee Gordon on the other hand, has been absolutely dominant against righties over the past 2 years with a .349 wOBA and a 136 wRC+. While his price is extremely high on both sites, he just might be worth it when you combine this match-up and ballpark.
Greg Garcia FD 2300 DK 3100
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @STL
FD - 7.96 DK - 6.49
If you are looking to pay way down at second base, Greg Garcia is far and away the top option. The Cardinals are taking on a right hander in Mike Foltynewicz who has struggled mightily against lefties. In 30.2 innings, Folty has sported a .356 wOBA that is backed up by a 4.89 xFIP and a 32% hard contact rate. Garcia on the other hand, while not a great hitter, brings a ton of upside as he can steal bases and will likely be at the top of the batting order. As a note, Folty struggles to hold runners and that will be very evident if Garcia gets on base as a lead runner.
Carlos Correa FD 4000 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Harrell) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.63 DK - 9.33
While this is the first Houston Astros bat mentioned, they are an offense that has a ton of upside and may find themselves in the stack article. Correa in particular, is one of the best bats on the team he absolutely demolished right handers. Since his major league debut, Correa has sported a .379 wOBA that is supported by a 36.7% hard contact rate. While Correa is my favorite option in cash games, let's take a look at J.J. Hardy, who is going to be one of my favorite tournament options.
J.J. Hardy FD 2300 DK 2700
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 8.12 DK - 6.37
In tournaments, I am absolutely loving J.J. Hardy and the other Orioles right handers. They will be taking on Carlos Rodon, who has been absolutely miserable against right handers. In 76 innings, he has given up a rediculous amount (16) home runs to righties, which is 3rd behind only Brandon Finnegan and Wei-yin Chen. Hardy on the other hand, has been hitting well lately and will look to continue that trend here against the homer prone southpaw. While I will steer clear in cash games, Hardy is going to be one of my favorite options in tournaments.
Nolan Arenado FD 4400 DK 5200
Opponent - MIA (Cashner) Park - @COL
FD - 13.77 DK - 10.58
While this is the first Colorado Rockies bat mentioned, they are obviously one of the top team stacks on the slate. The heart of the order, Nolan Arenado, is going to be one of the best bats on the board. The Rockies are facing off with Andrew Cashner, who is a bad pitcher in all facets of that definition. Against righties, has given up a .352 wOBA that is backed up by all of his peripherals and batted ball rates. Arenado on the other hand, has been one of the best hitters in the league, especially at home in the hitter haven that is Coors Field. Arenado is the top option in all formats, especially on DraftKings where Lamb is $4700.
Jacob Lamb FD 3100 DK 4700
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.57 DK - 8.99
The Diamondbacks are another team that is on my radar tonight as they will be taking on Matt Garza, who is nowhere near the pitcher he used to be. Over the last 3 seasons, Garza has exhibited a .362 wOBA and a 34% hard contact rate against left handers. Lamb on the other hand, has demolished right handers on the season with a .418 wOBA that is supported by a 45% hard contact rate and a 27% HR/FB rate. The Diamondbacks are going back to Chase Field, which is the second best ballpark in the league for left handed power. While Arenado is the clear cash game option, I prefer Lamb in tournaments.
David Peralta FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.38 DK - 8.99
Touching on another Diamondbacks bat, we are going to look at David Peralta in the outfield. Peralta, like Lamb, has dominated right handers as evident by his .386 wOBA over the previous 3 seasons. As I mentioned, Matt Garza is not a good pitcher and he is going to almost certainly struggle here against a Diamondbacks team that can be very potent at home in Chase Field. While Peralta has struggled a bit this year, I am going to trust the long-term numbers that suggest he is elite against right handers.
The Baltimore Orioles are arguably my favorite stack of the night, and are right on the same level as the Rockies and Marlins. As I mentioned, Carlos Rodon is atrocious against right handers and has given up the 3rd most amount of anyone in the league. My two favorite outfielders are Mark Trumbo and Steve Pearce. Both Pearce and Trumbo have sported a +.350 wOBA against lefties that is supported by peripherals and great batted ball rates. While both of these guys are great tournament options, I don't mind either of them in cash games.
So yeah, baseball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our MLB eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy MLB lineup. It's free, below.