Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/15/16

 

Welcome to Monday baseball! We have a 9 game main slate on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position!

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PITCHER

Felix Hernandez FD 9800 DK 0
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @LAA
FD - 28.93 DK - 19.03

Felix Hernandez is going to start us off here at pitcher as Max Scherzer is going to be in Coors Field. Hernandez and the Mariners will be taking on the Los Angeles Angels, a team that is very mediocre against right handers. Against righties, the Angels have sported a .312 wOBA to go along with a .721 OPS and a 99 wRC+. Hernandez on the other hand, has really turned it around since the beginning of the season when he struggled mightily. In his last 10 starts, he has turned it around a bit and while he has had some rough spots, he is much more effective. While he doesn't have the same upside as he used to, this is a very safe match-up and I think you can lock in 6 strikeouts with the upside for a bunch more. While I probably prefer Ray, Hernandez is going to be my top option without price considered.

Robbie Ray FD 7800 DK 9600
Opponent - NYM (Colon) Park - @ARI
FD - 32.94 DK - 22.23

While it is kind of tough to say this, Robbie Ray is going to be my top pitcher for the day. While his talent comes nowhere close to the likes of Scherzer and Hernandez, the match-up and price more than make up for it. The Mats have been a disaster against lefties this year with a .311 team wOBA that is backed up by a 97 wRC+ and a 22.1% K rate. Ray has been quite the opposite this season with a .320 combined wOBA that is supported by very strong peripherals and batted ball rates. While he has more inherent risk than Fernandez, I am comfortable using Ray in both cash games and tournaments. The Diamondbacks should have no problem getting a few runs off of Colon, which gives Ray a good shot at the win.

CATCHER

Jonathan Lucroy FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - OAK (Detwiler) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.62 DK - 9.07

Catcher is a pretty interesting position tonight as there are decent options across the board, which is rare. My favorite of them all is going to be Jonathan Lucroy as he will be taking on Ross Detwiler, who is a southpaw. While Lucroy has hit righties better over the last season, he is known as a southpaw masher and his peripherals show no change, which leads me to believe that his numbers are going to start evening out. Detwiler, however, has never been any good against righties. Over the last 2 year, he has given up a .348 wOBA that is backed up plenty. In cash gaes, Ramos and Lucroy will be the most popular options, and I am going to go with Lucroy.

Victor Martinez FD 3500 DK 0
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @DET
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.54

On FanDuel, you always have to consider Victor Martinez. He is probably the best hitter at the position (FD) and always has the upside to win you a tournaments. The Tigers take on Ian Kennedy tonight, who has struggled a bit recently. Against lefties in particular, he has given up a .324 wOBA along with 15 home runs in just over 60 innings. Kennedy is a home run machine and the Tigers are definitely a stack to consider in tournaments. While I do prefer Lucroy today, Martinez is very close and might be my favorite option in tournaments if I can be assured lower ownership. Martinez is looking to homer 2 nights in a row and I wouldn't put it past him in this match-up.

 

FIRST BASE

Joey Votto FD 4000 DK 5200
Opponent - MIA (Phelps) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.21 DK - 8.59

First base is another interesting position tonight as there is a ton of guys in good spots, though none of which necessarily stick out. That being said, Joey Votto is going to be my favorite option if you are looking to pay up. While Phelps is a decent pitcher, he has struggled since entering the starting rotation, especially with lefties. With a .324 wOBA and 4.77 xFIP, you can target lefties against Phelps. Though it goes unsaid, Votto is one of the best hitters in the league against righties. Since 2014, Votto has sported a nearly .400 wOBA that is certainly backed up across the board. With this game being played in hitter friendly Great American Ballpark, I am expecting a big game out of Joey Votto.

Brandon Belt FD 3700 DK 4400
Opponent - PIT (Vogelsong) Park - @SF
FD - 10.28 DK - 7.98

Belt is going to be my tournament special at first base as I expect him to go way lower owned than he should. Against Ryan Vogelsong, the Giants left handers are in a prime spot. Dating back to 2014, Vogelsong has been absolutely horrible against lefties with a .382 wOBA and has given up a total of 45 home runs! Belt on the other hand, has been spectacular against righties in 2016 with a .375 wOBA and a 39.1% hard contact rate. While AT&T Park is no hitter haven, Belt has shown his ability to hit there with a .373 wOBA at home on the season. Though I prefer Votto, Belt will come in very low owned and has a great shot to hit a homer.

Billy Butler FD 2700 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.58 DK - 7.34

If you are looking to pay down (FD) at first base, Billy Butler is the way to go. While he is far from the hitter he used to be, he still hits lefties well and should be able to connect against Martin Perez. The Athletics are going to be one of our top offenses as Martin Perez is very exploitable, especially against righties. Perez has already faced the Athletics 3 times this year and has struggled in every single start. I expect this game to be no different and if Butler is in a decent lineup spot, I love him as a cheap cash game play.

 

SECOND BASE

Robinson Cano FD 3800 DK 0
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @LAA
FD - 11.4 DK - 8.86

Robinson Cano is a very consistent option and one that I love rostering. Against righties in particular, Cano has sported a rediculous .400 wOBA that is strongly held up by a .958 ISO and a 38.7% hard contact rate. Cano and the Mariners will be taking on a righty today that is very easy to take advantage of, Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco has been horrible on the season with a combined wOBA of .342. While he has been a bit better against lefties, his peripherals suggest he is getting a bit lucky. While the park is far from optimal, Cano is far from reliant on the power swing.

Devon Travis FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - NYY (Green) Park - @NYY
FD - 7.59 DK - 6.07

Devon Travis and the Blue Jays are another team in an interesting spot here as they will be taking on Chad Green, a right hander that has struggled in the majors. Travis has been great against righties over the past 2 season with a .342 wOBA that is backed up by his peripherals and batted ball rates. While Yankees Stadium is much better left handed power, Travis sprays the ball around and I could definitely see him hitting an opposite field homer. While Cano is definitely preferred, I absolutely love the pivot to Travis in tournaments.

 

SHORTSTOP

Brandon Crawford FD 2600 DK 4400
Opponent - PIT (Vogelsong) Park - @SF
FD - 8.8 DK - 6.88

Like I mentioned when talking about Brandon Belt, Ryan Vogelsong is very prone to home runs, especially against lefties. I expect a few Giants to hit homers in this one and Crawford could certainly be one of those guys. While not a great hitter, Crawford has been above average against righties on the year with a .326 wOBA and a 34.3% hard contact rate. So far this year, Vogelsong has somehow given up 7 home runs in only 13 innings to left handers. While it is difficult to roster Crawford in cash games, I don't mind it due to the position as a whole being rather scarce.

Marcus Semien FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.41 DK - 8.28

Marcus Semien is gong to be our 2nd of many bats against Martin Perez and the Texas Rangers. While Semien has been struggling a bit, he has demolished lefties on the season. In over 100 plate appearances, Semien has sported a .391 wOBA that is backed up by a .278 BABIP and .304 ISO. We will touch on Perez in a bit, but for now you just need to know that he is absolutely atrocious against right handers. With this game being played in Globe Life Park, I am expecting some fireworks from the Athletics.

Consider Trea Turner, though he is VERY expensive.

 

THIRD BASE

Danny Valencia FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.65 DK - 8.22

Danny Valencia is my favorite bat of the night, and it honestly isn't very close. At all. Valencia is my favorite hitter in the league to roster as he absolutely demolishes left handed pitching. So far in 2016, Valencia has sported a crazy .431 wOBA that is somehow backed up by a 37% hard contact rate and a 28.6% HR/FB rate (obviously a little inflated). Perez on the other hand, has been pitiful against righties. In 115 innings, Perez has exhibited a .342 wOBA to go along with a 4.96 xFIP against right handers. This ballpark will take place in Globe Life Park, which is one of the better hitting parks in the league. You will want some exposure to this Athletics team and Valencia is the best way to do that.

Adrian Beltre FD 3400 DK 0
Opponent - OAK (Detwiler) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.91

We are going to look to the other side of the diamond here towards Adrian Beltre and the Texas Rangers. While Martin Perez is very bad against righties, Ross Detwiler is just as bad. Beltre, however, has been a left handed masher over the course of his career. Over the past 5 seasons, Beltre has sported a .372 wOBA that is backed up by all of the appropriate peripherals. While I certainly prefer Valencia by a long shot, Beltre comes in at a very affordable price across the industry. On FanDuel, Valencia is $400 cheaper, which will push Beltre' ownership way down and will result in him being a terrific tournament option, as he obviously has a ton of upside.

 

OUTFIELD

Khris Davis FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.1 DK - 7.77
Jake Smolinski FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 7.26 DK - 5.56

Yep, some more Oakland Athletics. The A's are obviously one of out favorite teams of the night and I think you can target the stack in both cash games and tournaments. While Khris Davis has a permanent spot in the 4 or 5 hole, Smolinski is rather uncertain. Therefore, the Smolinski pick is very contingent on him being in a good lineup spot. If he is in the 2 hole, he makes for a tremendous play in all formats. Both Davis and Smolinski have sported +.340 wOBA's against lefties and there is no reason to think those aren't justified. As mentioned more than a few times, Martin Perez is horrible and someone we should be targeting every time he takes the mound against a right handed heavy lineup.

Bryce Harper FD 4500 DK 5400
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 14.33 DK - 11.05

While the lefty-lefty match-up isn't what we look for, Bryce Harper in Coors Field certainly is. Harper has been just fine against lefties with a career wOBA of .338. De La Rosa on the other hand, has been very average against lefties in Coors Field with a .321 wOBA, though he has given up a ton of home runs. With the Nationals run total approaching 6, we can expect a heaping of runs from the Nats, with some of them incorporating Bryce Harper. As a note, I am more likely to roster lefties in a bad handedness match up as most bullpen arms are right handed and there is a good shot that he sees 2 at-bats against a right hander.

Marcell Ozuna FD 3400 DK 3900
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.61

Finishing us off at outfield, we are going to look at Marcell Ozuna. With Giancarlo Stanton out for the year, Ozuna is going to have to step up and show that he can be the left handed masher. He has certainly done that so far in 2016 with some INSANE stats. Through 100 at-bats against lefties, Ozuna has sported a ludicrous .425 wOBA that is backed up by a 49% hard contact rate and a .333 ISO. While Finnegan is not atrocious, he gives up a ton of home runs to righties. Ozuna is my pick for home run of the night and I am pretty confident in this one. The Marlins receive a huge upgrade moving into the Great American Ballpark, which is one of the bets for power in the league.

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