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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

08/20/2016
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/20/16

 

Welcome to Monday baseball! We have a 14 game main slate on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on more pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. Let's get into the top options at each position!

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PITCHER

Max ScherzerMax Scherzer FD 11000 DK 13600
Opponent - ATL (Jenkins) Park - @ATL
FD - 43.38 DK - 28.38

Max Scherzer is going to start us off at pitcher here against the horrible Atlanta Braves. While the Braves are worse against lefties, they are far from good against right handers. In 3200 plate appearances, the Braves have sported a league 29th worst .294 wOBA that is backed up by a 19.6% hard contact rate and a .123 ISO, which is absolutely putrid. Scherzer on the other hand, has been tremendous against both lefties and righties with a sub .300 wOBA against both. With this game taking place in Turner Field, Scherzer receives a tremendous ballpark upgrade. While he is going to cost you a pretty penny, Scherzer is worth it in both tournaments and cash games. If you are looking for a tournament option, Felix Hernandez is a great way to go.

Felix HernandezFelix Hernandez FD 10400 DK 11500
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @SEA
FD - 42 DK - 27.66

As I mentioned, Fernandez is a tremendous tournament option as the Mariners will be facing off with the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that has been putrid against right handers. In 3200 plate appearances, the Brewers have sported a .310 wOBA to go along with a crazy 25.6% strikeout rate. While Felix Hernandez is not having a tremendous season, he is still very good against both sides of the plate. Against righties, Hernandez has exhibited a .287 wOBA as well as a 8.40 K/9. This game will take place in Miller Park, a park that is rough for left handed power. While much cheaper on FanDuel, he makes for a very good play in both cash games and tournaments.

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CATCHER

Willson ContrerasWillson Contreras FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @COL
FD - 11.23 DK - 8.86

Just a warning, you are going to see a ton of Chicago Cubs in this article. They are in a tremendous spot against Jeff Hoffman, who is going to make his major league debut here against the explosive Chicago Cubs offense. Contreras is going to be the first guy we look at here and he has hit righties to the tune of a .349 wOBA as well as 6 home runs in 125 at-bats. While we will touch on Jeff Hoffman in a bit, he is a very bad pitcher who is going to struggle mightily here. This game will take place in Coors Field, which is obviously the absolute best park in the league for hitting.

Brian McCannBrian McCann FD 3000 DK 3300
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @LAA
FD - 9.74 DK - 7.32

Honestly, I don;t see myself coming off of Willson Contreras too much. That being said, there is always a case to be made for pivoting, especially at catcher where nobody is very good. Brian McCann and the Yankees will be taking on Ricky Nolasco, the aging veteran that has been destroyed against lefties with a .384 wOBA to go along with good peripherals and batted ball rates. Though McCann isn't a great hitter, he has the power swing and can send one out anywhere. While Contreras is the clear top option in cash games, I would take a long look at McCann in tourneys/GPP's.

 

FIRST BASE

Anthony RizzoAnthony Rizzo FD 4800 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @COL
FD - 16.86 DK - 12.88

Anthony Rizzo is right up there with Kris Bryant and it is going to be so hard to keep them out of my lineup. Rizzo has absolutely demolished right handers on the season with an astonish .413 wOBA as well as 17 hoe runs and a .279 ISO. Hoffman however, has been putrid in the minors this season with 3 games where has given up over 7 earned runs, and that is the minors, let alone Coors Field against the best offense in baseball. As well as Hoffman, the Rockies bullpen is in shambles and the Cubs will be able to keep swinging late into the game. In cash games, play Anthony Rizzo. In tournaments, play Rizzo and get some exposure to other guys.

Adam LindAdam Lind FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.5

If you are looking to get off of Anthony Rizzo for some reason, Adam Lind is the best way to do that, maybe outside of Jose Abreu who will be taking on Detwiler and the Athletics. Back on Lind, he has been a right handed masher over the course of his career and has held a .370 wOBA over the past couple seasons. The Mariners will be taking on one of my favorite targets, Wily Peralta. Peralta is a notorious home run machine and I am going to be looking out for some fireworks here.

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SECOND BASE

Ben ZobristBen Zobrist FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @COL
FD - 12.84 DK - 9.95

Yep, you guessed it, another Chicago Cubs bat. This guy, Ben Zobrist, has been spectacular against righties over the past couple seasons with a .348 wOBA that is backed up by plenty of peripherals and batted ball rates. Coors Field has proven to increase the length of flyballs by over 10%, which obviously makes a ton of a difference. While it is going to be hard to decide which Cubs to play, I would say you need to get Zobrist in if you are stacking the Cubs in cash games.

Robinson CanoRobinson Cano FD 3700 DK 4700
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @SEA
FD - 12.23 DK - 9.51

If you have the salary and still want to fade the Cubs option, you definitely have to look at Robinson Cano. Cano has been one of the best hitters in the league against righties on the year with a .392 wOBA that is backed up by plenty of peripherals and bated ball rates. As I mentioned with Wily Peralta, he is a guy who gives up a ton of home runs. Over the course of his career, Peralta has held a 1.24 HR/9, which is far from any good. While I personally prefer Zobrist, I definitely see the case for a pivot in both cash games and tournaments.

 

SHORTSTOP

Xander BogaertsXander Bogaerts FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @DET
FD - 11.3 DK - 9.07

Shortstop is an interesting position here tonight as there are plenty of guys to consider, but non that really stick out more than the others. That being said, Xander Bogaerts is definitely an interesting way to look. The Red Sox will be taking on Daniel Norris, who is actually a big prospect even though he has mightily struggled against righties. In 2015, Norris sported a.348 wOBA against lefties and it looks like that is his true talent. Bogaerts, while he has gotten lucky with a .348 BABIP, has been great against lefties and I look for him to have another big game here. While the ballpark isn't optimal, Bogaerts is far from reliant on his power swing.

Tim AndersonTim Anderson FD 2900 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Detwiler) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.79 DK - 8.71

Tim Anderson and the Chicago White Sox are in a great spot here against Ross Detwiler, and the Las Vegas books agree as the team total is currently sitting over 5 runs. Anderson has been one of my favorite players to roster this year as he has ht for both power and speed, which gives you a bunch of safety and upside. This game will take place in U.S. Cellular Field, which is one of the absolute best parks in the league for right handed hitters. While Bogaerts is the clear cut cash game option, there is definitely something to be said for the Tim Anderson swerve.

 

THIRD BASE

Kris BryantKris Bryant FD 5000 DK 5600
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @COL
FD - 16.82 DK - 12.92

Kris Bryant is arguably the best hitter in the league, come at me. He is having a historic season and will look to hit another homer here in this impeccable match up. This match up and ballpark is the absolute best it could possibly be for Bryant and there is absolutely no reason to think he won't have another huge game. There is really not too much more to say here, the Cubs are someone to take a look at. You are going to want exposure to the Cubs, and Kris Bryant is a tremendous way to go.

Maikel FrancoMaikel Franco FD 2900 DK 4500
Opponent - STL (Weaver) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.84

Like I said earlier, it is going to be very tough to get me off of both Kris Bryant and Rizzo, and I am not too sure if Maikel Franco is going to be able to get me off of him. Franco has a ton of home run pop and will be taking on a guy in Luke Weaver that certainly has some home run issues. Weaver has given up a .342 wOBA to righties this far and I do expect him to struggle a bit more as he gets acclimated to the majors. With the holy Kris Bryant at third, Franco is my second favorite option, by a long shot.

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OUTFIELD

Bryce HarperBryce Harper FD 4100 DK 5000
Opponent - ATL (Jenkins) Park - @ATL
FD - 14.83 DK - 11.44

Bryce Harper against a bad lefty who gives up a ton of home runs, sign me up. Harper is the only hitter challenging Rizzo and Bryant for the top hitter of the slate as they are in somewhat similar match ups. Jenkins, over the past few seasons, has given up a .368 wOBA to lefties as well as a 1.89 HR/9. Harper on the other hand, has destroyed righties over the course of his entire career with a +.400 wOBA in 2 of the seasons. Harper is going to be my pick for homer of the night, though it could of easily gone to both Rizzo and/or Kris Bryant.

Seth SmithSeth Smith FD 3100 DK 3200
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.82 DK - 0

Seth Smith is going to be our 3rd Seattle Mariners bat here and we obviously think they are in a very good spot here against Wily Peralta. While Peralta is capable of a quality start, he is also very capable of giving up 4 home runs in a game and only lasting 3 innings. I am going to look for one of those performances here and we are going to be in the money if that comes true. Seth Smith, like Adam Lind, has been a notorious righty killer over the course of his career and has been no different this season. Sitting around $3200 on both sites, Smith is very affordable and someone to consider in both cash games and tournaments.

Jason HeywardJason Heyward FD 3500 DK 3500
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @COL
FD - 12.18 DK - 9.99
Dexter FowlerDexter Fowler FD 4200 DK 5200
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @COL
FD - 13.8 DK - 11.15

If Jorge Soler is right in the middle of the lineup, he becomes a great play as well in the outfield. Heyward and Fowler, however, are going to be in spectacular spots here. Jeff Hoffman, as I mentioned, is a very bad pitcher and it is almost a certainty that he is going to struggle here to a degree against a Cubs team that has been in the top 5 against righties in almost every category. Both Heyward and Fowler have sported +.340 wOBA's against righties over the past 3 seasons. In cash games, I am going to take a harder look at Fowler, though he will be higher owned. Therefore in tournaments, I prefer Heyward as he has plenty of upside in this ballpark.

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10 Visitor Comments

  1. Fairly certain Heyward will be on the bench for late inning replacement only as Cubs manager has benched him for a few days

    • I read somewhere that it’s for the weekend.

  2. You can’t take most of the players they mentioned.. They all cost to much!!,,especially if you take high priced so!!,I could name all these guys to..the run total on game is 12!!.this article isn’t gonna help me make my lineup today!

  3. Jeff Hoffman is a legit prospect that has put up pretty good numbers in the PCL (one of the best leagues for hitters on the planet) this year. If feels like any time a rookie gets called up you folks just default to calling him horrible and stack against him. maybe there is a good reason to stack against him tonight and maybe the Cubs will crush him (anyone can get bombed in coors) but erroneously calling him a putrid pitcher and citing three bad starts isn’t analysis. That’s just lazy. Scherzer has given up 5 runs four times this year and 7 runs once, yet he is your top pitcher.

    • yes, but Scherzer has done that against major league opponents. He has also struck out 20 batters in a single game this year. While Hoffman is a decent prospect and may eventually be decent, I am certain that he is going to struggle in Coors for a while. He had Tommy John surgery 2 years ago and his strikeout numbers have dipped considerably since then. If you want to fade the Cubs, that is your decision.

  4. I love when people complain that a free article isn’t going to help them make a lineup!

  5. Austyn, I am not making a case for or against the cubs, and I may have come across a bit more harsh than intended. But the broader point stands: I was more critical of the analysis provided to justify them than the recommendation, itself. You are correct that Scherzer and Hoffman are not even close to comparable, but the write up cited three bad starts to justify stacking against Hoffman while providing little other evidence other than the assessment that he is “putrid”. I was just pointing out that we could use a small number of starts to say any pitcher is bad.

    Your site provides pretty valuable free content on a regular basis, and the write ups typically contain strong analytical support for the recommendations. It is a good advertisement for your projections tool. However, recently there seems to be a trend of you folks just hammering on recent call-ups without providing real evidence to support it. I think I recall recently there was one write up that was rewritten because a call-up was mischaracterized and it changed some the recommendations. That all being said, I do apologize if my tone was more harsh than intended.

  6. Anyone in Atlanta with a weather update?

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