Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/26/16

Welcome back for another night of daily fantasy baseball. It's Friday and means we get a full 15 game slate that starts at 7:05 PM et. With a great selection of pitchers from the top tier and down through to value range it is going to give us a ton of options tonight. Let's take a look a couple value plays from our projection system for Friday night.

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PITCHER

David Phelps FD 7000 DK 8700
Opponent - SD (Cosart) Park - @MIA
FD - 31.47 DK - 20.65

Coming in as the top value play at the position from a PTS/$ perspective tonight is David Phelps. Up until August he had spent the entire season for in the Marlins bullpen and was very impressive with a 3.33 xFIP and 11.43 K/9 rate. Since joining the rotation he has made four starts, winning the last two, and seeing his innings go up each start. He has been even better as a starter with a 2.79 xFIP while maintaining the strikeout rate. Phelps also gets the best matchup on the board against the Padres who rank dead last in wOBA(.291) and wRC+(81) against right handed pitching. The combination of matchup and price make him a safe play in any format tonight.

 

Justin Verlander FD 9600 DK 10400
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @DET
FD - 34.32 DK - 22.89

The Tigers come in early as the biggest favorites(-210) of the slate as they send their ace to mound against the Angels. Justin Verlander has continued to impress in his 12th season with the Tigers and is putting up his highest strikeout rate(9.40 K/9) since 2009. Since getting beat up by the Indians back at the end June, Verlander has held opponents to two earned runs or less in nine of 10 starts and with an impressive 1.97 ERA. He makes a very safe cash game play today but keeps me from using him in GPP's is the limited upside against the Angels. They have been a bottom of the league team over the past 14 days when looking at team wOBA but have the lowest K rate(15.8%) of any team against right handed pitching.

 

 

Gio Gonzalez FD 8100 DK 6100
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @WSH
FD - 35.74 DK - 23.29

If you are looking to go off te board a bit in GPP's tonight, Gio makes an interesting option on both sites. His best value comes on DraftKings at just over $6K making him an excellent salary relief option to pair with an ace and some top bats. While the K rate has dropped off in the second half he has cut the HR/FB rate in half(14%-7%) while lowing his ERA by over a run and half. He gets a very interesting matchup vs. the Rockies who hit lefties well but strike out 22.5% of the time and while they rake at Coors Field, they rank 26th in wOBA on the road with an even higher 23.6% K rate. There is definitely risk involved in a somewhat scary matchup but that could help keep the masses off of him giving us very low ownership.

CATCHER

Gary Sanchez FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.76 DK - 9.13

Gary Sanchez tops the catcher picks tonight and is one of the hottest hitters in the league, regardless of position. Since being called up in at the start of August he is slashing .412/.474/.897 with nine home runs, 16 RBI and 14 runs scored. With the hot streak the Yankees have moved him up to third in order which has even elevated his value even higher. Until he cools down he is an elite play in any format.

 

Wilson Ramos FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.06 DK - 8.52

Ramos has cooled off a bit lately but has been one of the best fantasy catchers in baseball this year with a .369 wOBA, 19 home runs and a 129 wRC+. He gets an elite matchup tonight as the Rockies will throw Jeff Hoffman to the mound for his second major league start. After struggling in 22 starts at Triple-A with a 4.02 ERA he got the call up to face the Cubs and didn't fare so well giving up six earned runs in four innings before hitting the showers. While I prefer Sanchez on FanDuel for just $200 more I am leaning Ramos on DraftKings where he gives you an extra $900 in salary to play with.

 

Buster Posey FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - ATL (de la Cruz) Park - @SF
FD - 11.31 DK - 8.73

Buster Posey has been a top fantasy catcher since he came into the league and provides a ton of safety at the position on a nightly basis. His best value is on DraftKings tonight where he comes at a discount as the 9th in salary. He has seen a decline in the power in the 2nd half with just one home run but has maintained an average right around .300 with a very impressive .370 on base percentage. There are definitely other options with more upside for GPP's but I will almost always side with Posey against average pitching for cash games.

 

FIRST BASE

Joey Votto FD 3600 DK 5500
Opponent - ARI (Shipley) Park - @ARI
FD - 13.22 DK - 10.14

It's not often the Reds leave Great American Small Park and actually get a park upgrade. This is the case tonight as they travel to Chase Field to start a series with the Diamondbacks. Even with as bad of a season as the Reds are having Votto continues to put up elite numbers. He leads all first basemen with a .402 wOBA and sits behind only Anthony Rizzo in wRC+(150) for the season. He gets one of the top matchups of the position as he faces Braden Shipley who has been awful his last two starts surrendering 13 earned runs including four long balls. Votto is the highest priced option at 1B on DraftKings making him a GPP only play but comes at a nice discount of FanDuel in the mid $3K range and is safe in all formats.

 

Edwin Encarnacion FD 4300 DK 5000
Opponent - MIN (Dean) Park - @TOR
FD - 15.3 DK - 11.46

If anyone is giving the retiring David Ortiz a run for his money for the American League MVP it's Double-E. Outside of his average(.271) he has elite numbers across the board. His 35 home runs are 2nd to only Mark Trumbo and his 101 RBI are 2nd to only Nolan Arenado. While he has shown reverse splits in average this season he has shown more power against southpaws with a 39% hard contact rate and .297 isolated power. He has been very consistent lately with hits in five straight and 13 of his last 15 games including seven multi hit efforts. He is great option in any format tonight.

 

Chris Davis FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - NYY (Cessa) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.29 DK - 9.19

Davis adds to the already loaded position tonight and makes a great GPP pivot off some of the top options. He may not be as consistent with a low .224 average and sky high 33% strikeout rate but he has maintained a serviceable OBP(.339) and comes with just as much upside as the options listed above. He has belted 30 home runs for the seasons and has been on a roll the last 14 days slashing .306/.414/.776 with an elite 209 wRC+. He also gets a nice park upgrade for left handed power going into Yankee Stadium for a three games series.

 

SECOND BASE

Jose Altuve FD 3800 DK 4400
Opponent - TB (Smyly) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.12 DK - 10.5

While I mentioned Double E as a strong candidate for the MVP(Jays homer in me of course), Jose Altuve may have the best shot of all leading the league with a .361 average. He has put together his first career 20/20 season and has set career highs in runs scored(90) and RBI(84) and there is still over a month to go in the regular season. His consistency makes him a great play almost every day but he becomes an elite play when facing left handed pitching as he comes into Friday with a .459 wOBA and 197 wRC+.

 

Daniel Murphy FD 4200 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @WSH
FD - 12.64 DK - 9.96

While Altuve leads in most offensive categories, Murphy gets the edge in power. He has four more home runs, 11 more RBI and an isolated power number that is just over 50 points higher than Altuve's. The high price tag on Friday is a product of the great matchup against Jeff Hoffman. He struggled in Triple-A before being called up and as expected struggled in his first start going just four innings surrendering six earned runs against the Cubs. I wiil take the discount with Altuve in cash games but much prefer Murphy's upside in tournaments.

 

SHORTSTOP

Troy Tulowitzki FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - MIN (Dean) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.38 DK - 9.44

This won't be the last stop we make today into the Jays roster. They rank 7th in wOBA and 5th in wRC+ against southpaws this season and the right handed hitters will look to get on Pat Dean early and often. He has given up a staggering .313 average and .387 wOBA to righties with all seven of his home runs against. Dean has been back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen with a 4.42 xFIP and average strikeout rate just above seven per nine. Tulo has really turned his season around after an slow start and stint on the DL and is currently slashing .311/.391/.492 with a 141 wRC+ in the month of August. At his current salary is a near must play tonight.

Asdrubal Cabrera FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.17 DK - 7.94

If you need a little more salary relief tonight take a hard look at Cabrera. Since being activated from the disabled list last Thursday he has recorded a hit in five of six games including three multi hit efforts. He has also comes with strong splits vs. left handed pitching with a .344 wOBA(.300 vs. RH) and 118 wRC+(88 vs. RH) and will face Adam Morgan who has been disappointing this season with a 4.80 xFIP and 16% HR/FB rate.

Jhonny Peralta FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - OAK (Detwiler) Park - @STL
FD - 10.44 DK - 8.07

With most people likely turning to the above options due to upside and price, Peralta makes an excellent contrarian pivot for tournaments. He has reverse splits and is stronger against righties but will be tough avoid as he is red hot in August slashing .319/.347/.464 with 13 runs scored for the Cardinals. Detwiler shouldn't provide much resistance for the Cards bats today as he has struck out as many batters(5) as he has walked in his last two starts while surrendering 11 earned runs.

 

THIRD BASE

Josh Donaldson FD 4200 DK 5000
Opponent - MIN (Dean) Park - @TOR
FD - 15.87 DK - 12.06

Despite the high price tag Donaldson shows up as one of the top plays at third base from a  PTS/$ perspective. He missed two games last weekend after jamming his thumb and has recorded a hit in four straight games since returning including his 29th home run of the season last night. He has also been a bit better against left handed pitching with a .419 wOBA and 166 wRC+ on the season. As I mentioned with the other Jays hitters, the matchup is ideal against Pat Dean and the Twins and a great spot for the Jays to break out of their two game losing streak.

 

Wilmer Flores FD 2500 DK 4200
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @NYM
FD - 9.4 DK - 7.33

Wilmer Flores is another right handed Mets hitter in a great spot tonight against Adam Morgan and the Phillies.  He is unplayable when facing right handed pitching but a great value against southpaws with a .447 wOBA and 186 wRC+ on the season. Unlike his teammate Cabrera, he hasn't been consistent thus eliminating him from cash game consideration. He is also a bit over priced on DraftKings but an elite play on FanDuel  in the mid $2K range giving your lineup a ton of flexibility.

Trevor Plouffe FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - TOR (Liriano) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.35 DK - 7.21

The main theme of today's article is leaning heavily towards targeting the left handed arms. With Flores rating higher on FanDuel it's Plouffe providing the low end value on DraftKings. He has strong splits vs. left handed pitching for his career and has been providing some nice upside lately. He has recorded multiple hits in four of his last eight games and gets a bump as he is the current cleanup hitter for the Twins.

OUTFIELD

Bryce Harper FD 3900 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @WSH
FD - 15.91 DK - 12.27

We just can't go talking about the Nationals and their great matchup without mentioned DFSR's favorite son, Bryce Harper. If you follow along daily and listen to the pod you know the struggle Doug goes through answering questions about Harper on a daily basis. What we kept trying to beat into everyone's heads was the fact Harper was dealing with a crazy low BABIP and that he is still one of the top hitters in the league despite the low .249 season average. The power hasn't fully came back on board but Harper has now recorded multiple hits in three straight and five of his last six games and has also recorded an elite 39% hard contact rate in August.

Rickie Weeks FD 2300 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.49 DK - 8.18

This is player you will have to monitor throughout the day on Friday. He is a platoon player who crushes left handed pitching(.415 wOBA/156 wRC+) and should be back in the lineup today against Brandon Finnegan. His value is sky high when he starts as he has spent five of the last six games in the four or five hole for the D Backs. DraftKings has priced his splits and opportunity fairly well with is best value coming on FanDuel where he is only $2,300 tonight.

Thomas Pham FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - OAK (Detwiler) Park - @STL
FD - 12.53 DK - 10.07

When constructing your lineups one of the best ways to find value is wait until lineups are released and find hitters making a shift up the lineup before their salaries can catch up. Pham falls into this category as he hasn't been a regular for the Cards on a daily basis which has helped keep his salary down, especially on FanDuel. He has bounced around the lineup hitting everywhere from 9th to leadoff where he has spent his last four starts. Stay tuned for more information as lineup lock approaches tomorrow.
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