Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 93 - 9/3/16

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UFC Fight Night 93 rolls into Hamburg, Gemrany and we look to continue our hot streak at DFSR, going 6-0 over the last two weeks. OK, enough of the shameless self promotion, let's look ahead to another solid card for DFS. UFC Fight 93 sets up well on paper as there a few top fighters with name recognition that I want no part of for Daily Fantasy as well as an undercard filled with talent that the general public doesn't know much about. There is also (AGAIN) some fighters with implied value simply because their DraftKings price is nowhere near falling in line with the Vegas odds. Where are we looking for Saturday's early (11:45 AM EST Start!)? No more intro, it's fight time.

Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?

 

VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)

 

No one, stay away, do not pass go, do not collect $200. There are only three guys on this card who will cost you $10,500 or more and I can't, in good conscientious, recommend any of them. Alexander Gustafsson will cost you $12,500 which is just...I mean...no. I suppose you could squeeze him in a few GPP lineups but he's cost prohibitive. Then you have Nick Hein at $10,500 who takes on Tae Hyun Bang and while he could win that fight I don't see a finish, which is what I'm looking for when you cost $10,500. Last in the group is Nicholas Dalby who has an $11,000 price tag despite being only a -175 favorite. Why, DraftKings, why? Also, I'm very high on Peter Sobotta, but we'll get to him later. So, I'll give you three quick fight predictions below but you may want to dig into the cheatsheet before rostering any of these guys.

Prediction 1: Gustafsson, W - Unanimous Decision
Prediction 2: Hein, W - Unanimous Decision
Prediction 3: Dalby L - 1st Round TKO

MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)

Josh Barnett ($9,700)

Vegas Line: -150
Finish Prop: -104
Career Record: 34-8
UFC Record: 6-3
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  3.15
Finishes: 8 KO / 20 Subs / 16 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 2 KO / 3 Sub
Last Time Out: L, 2nd Round Submission (Guillotine Choke) - Ben Rothwell

Heavyweights in the main event! More than that, two former champions and pioneers of MMA in the main event! That being said, I'm taking Josh Barnett in this one. He is the better finisher, shown by his card leading -104 finish prop, and Andrei Arlovski has been finished in each of last two fights. Eight of Barnett's last nine wins have come via stoppage with the lone exception being Roy Nelson - who I'm pretty sure isn't human after watching the shots he took in his last fight. You may want to have exposure on both sides of this bout, because it is heavyweight and it is the main event but in my opinion Barnett has more upside and will find his way into both my cash and GPP lineups.

Prediction: Barnett - 1st Round Submission (Guillotine Choke)

 

UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)

Peter Sobotta ($8,400)

Vegas Line: +155
Finish Prop: +550
Career Record: 15-5-1
UFC Record: 2-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 1.88
Finishes: 4 KO / 10 Subs / 13 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: L, 1st Rd TKO - Kyle Noke

This one is simple, reread the intro about a certain fighter's price point not matching the odds. Hello, Peter Sobotta. Sobotta is a +155 underdog but that doesn't even come close to reflecting an $8,400 salary. You also have to like the intangibles for him in this fight as he is one of only two Germans on the card, fighting in his home country. Sobotta is looking to rebound from his first UFC defeat but throughout his career he has shown the ability to do what we all love in DFS MMA: Finish. Fights. Quickly. In his 15 career victories he has 14 first round wins, including one in the UFC. His opponent, Nicholas Dalby, has never been finished and is the favorite but Dalby is 1-1-1 in the UFC and his victory was a split decision. Even if the salaries were identical, I'd probably lean towards Sobotta for the above reasons but grabbing him at $8,400 is a steal in all formats.

Prediction: Sobotta - 1st Round TKO

 

Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash and GPP plays as well as fades and contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.