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Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 203 - 9/10/16
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UFC 203 is Saturday night and it looks to be an absolutely fantastic card from top to bottom. The main event and co-main event are heavyweight bouts, we have the debut of former WWE Superstar Phil "CM Punk" Brooks, Jessica Andrade's second fight at straweight, and the list goes on. We've also been riding quite the hot streak here at DFSR, going 8-0 over the last three cards...go ahead, scroll back and look, then read on and let's (hopefully) find some more winners and stoppages for UFC 203.
Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?
VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)
Mickey Gall ($11,400)
Vegas Line: -485
Finish Prop: -317
Career Record: 2-0
UFC Record: 1-0
Record In Last 5: 2-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.67
Finishes: 2 Subs / 2 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage:None
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round Submission (Rear Naked Choke) - Mike Jackson
I haven't watched pro wrestling in quite some time, but when I did I was definitely a fan of CM Punk. Here's the bad news for Phil Brooks, pro MMA is a different animal and it's one you can't just jump into and succeed. Nothing against him, I don't even blame him for cashing in on his fame, but he's probably going to get driven through by Mickey Gall. Gall himself is just a young and raw prospect, but unless his nerves get the best of him, he should make quick work of Brooks - there's simply no need to over analyze this fight. It's worth noting that Gall has a huge price tag of $11,400 but I think there are enough options out there to put him in play in all formats.
Prediction: Gall - 1st Round Submission (Rear Naked Choke)
MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)
Stipe Miocic ($10,000)
Vegas Line: -135
Finish Prop: -107
Career Record: 15-2
UFC Record: 9-2
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.93
Finishes: 11 KO / 1 Sub / 7 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round KO - Fabricio Werdum
The heavyweight champion of the world is in action and I actually think he will be under owned. I suspect more people will be on Alistair Overeem - and I will have exposure to both in GPPs. But head-to-head I like Stipe Miocic for a variety of reasons. Let's start with his crazy (for a heavyweight) 4.93 significant strikes landed per minute and the fact that he has won his last four fights by knockout. Overeem has been around a long time and does have a history of being unreliable in big spots, though he did impressively dispatch Andrei Arlovski. Miocic also has the second best finish prop on the card at -107 and a price of $10,000 should absolutely put him on your radar in all formats.
Prediction: Miocic - 4th Round TKO
UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)
Jason Gonzalez ($8,200)
Vegas Line: +150
Finish Prop: +330
Career Record: 10-2
UFC Record: 0-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 0.00
Finishes: 4 KO / 6 Subs / 6 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 1 Sub
Last Time Out: W, 2nd Rd TKO - Chris Padilla
You don't need to look past the first fight on Saturday to find the best value on the card in Jason Gonzalez at $8,200. Though he's making his UFC debut, his opponent Drew Dober hasn't been especially impressive in his UFC career. Gonzalez is only a +150 underdog and has a +330 finish prop, both are far above what you'd expect for a fighter in his price range. Gonzalez also has upside as all of his 10 professional wins have come via stoppage. This is where I'll be looking to make up all of the salary (and then some) to roster Mickey Gall. As "punt plays" go, Gonzalez gives you an above average chance at a victory and I wouldn't be floored if he eventually stops Dober. I'll play it safe in my prediction below, but I think Gonzalez starts the show off with an upset.
Prediction: Gonzalez - Unanimous Decision
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UFC 201
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Any other 1st round ender favorites? Thanks for the write and stats.
Andrade the most likely I think, crazy power for 115 lbs and it’s going to be a fast paced slugfest. Concern for early finish is Calderwood has proved she has a great chin. Can’t wait for that fight.
Agreed. The woman are savage!