Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 2 9/18/16

Week 1 is in the books and we learned a ton about how teams operated, schemes and general usage. Now we get to put that info to good use for Week 2.

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QUARTERBACKS

Cam Newton FD 9000 DK 7900
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 25.81 DK - 26.55
If you are wondering if Chip Kelly brought his full offensive philosophy over to San Fran this year, you're right in that they went from a team ranked 30th in pace last year to having run the second most plays in the NFL in week one. Why does this matter for Cam? Because the faster the pace of the game (or the opponent) the more volume a player stands to see. Such is the case for Newton who comes into the game as the biggest favorite on the week (-13). It's a little tricky rostering a quarterback in a game like this as you get worried about the blowout, but Cam has such a high floor with his ability to run and has a true WR1 back in the fold with Kelvin Benjamin looking fully recovered from injury. This is a great spot for Newton and I suspect the price tag keeps people away from his more than they should this week.

Eli Manning FD 8100 DK 7600
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 21.66 DK - 22.57
Derek Carr didn't ritualistically shred the Saints' defense as expected last week, but that game was still a track meet that saw Carr put the ball up close to 40 times. I suspect you see much of the same this week with Eli and the Giants (and Brees going the other way). Dallas was able to time -of-possession the hell out of New York last week, but that isn't the Saints' game plan and there's a reason this game has three more points than the next higher over/ under on the week. Don't be too fooled by Manning's performance last week. Like I said, the Cowboys dominated the clock. Eli has an elite WR1, some adequate secondary options and the benefit of playing a team still struggling in pass defense.

Drew Brees FD 9200 DK 8200
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 23.26 DK - 24.08
Most of what I said about the Giants holds true here with Brees as well. The game is expected to be a shoot out much like in Week 1 where Brees threw 42 times en route to a 424/4 line good for the second highest total QB points on the day. We could see much of the same. He has two solid weapons in Cooks and Snead along with a handful of other pieces who make it difficult to load up on just the WRs for defenses. Dak didn't light the world on fire against the Giants in Week 1, but he still put up 45 passes and 227 yards (most of which were of the safe variety). That won't be the Saints' plan of attack as I suspect they keep their foot on the gas. Brees is expensive but is again in a spot to put up big numbers.

Philip Rivers FD 7700 DK 6400
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 21.79 DK - 22.63
Losing Keenan Allen hurts. It hurts bad as Rivers made it clear early that Allen was fully back in the fold and would be the target machine a la pre-injury. But losing Allen put some of that on hold and we will have to take a wait-and-see approach on who benefits the most in the passing game. The Chargers ran a bit more than usual last week against the Chiefs but that could have been because of game script and an early lead. This week they'll get Jacksonville who ranked 27th in weighted DVOA against the pass last season though looked not awful against Aaron Rodgers and company last week. I like Rivers as a volume thrower in this one coming at mid tier pricing.

RUNNING BACKS

DeAngelo Williams FD 7600 DK 7100
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 18.36 DK - 20.36
This isn't exactly going out on a limb will a value play with Williams coming off the best RB game from Week 1. But he's still very much in the cash game discussion. His price climbed only a tad thanks in some part to the sites releasing Week 2 pricing before his Monday night display. And he comes into this game with some of the same kinds of upside. Williams was a beast against the Redskins going 26/143/2 while also chipping in six catches. Meanwhile, the Bengals are coming off a week where they allowed a ton of production to Matt Forte both out of the backfield and in the passing game. This is another spot to play DeAngelo in cash as his implied volume is as good as any player in the league right now.

C.J. Anderson FD 7800 DK 6800
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 17.2 DK - 18.75
When Trevor Siemian is your quarterback you might be incentivized to run and run a lot. That appeared to be the Broncos' plan last Thursday when they pounded the run game for 30 carries, giving C.J. twenty. He was moderately efficient averaging 4.6 yards per and even getting five targets in the passing game. That's fantastic volume which he could replicate against an Indy team that's just brutal on defense. The Lions averaged 4.8 yards per carry last week and it stands to reason this Denver running game is a much better bunch on the ground. Anderson isn't cheap, but he has upside in this game with the Broncos coming in as a -6 at home.

Rashad Jennings FD 6300 DK 5600
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 17.04 DK - 18.13
You're going to see more than a couple of Giants on the list this week because of the matchup. The Saints are atrocious on D and willing to play at a breakneck pace. That should be a volume uptick for a guy like Jennings who was solid, if unspectacular, in Week 1 with 18/75 and a couple of targets. Here you are getting him in the lower middle tier of running backs in a game where the Giants should run many more plays than they did against Dallas. This is a price play plain and simple but Jennings should see goal line work too if they get down and close. I love stacking the Giants across the board.

T.J. Yeldon FD 6500 DK 4700
Opponent SD
Proj Points FD - 15.52 DK - 17.68
As of this writing, Chris Ivory had just been released from the hospital. I'm no doctor, but that doesn't seem like a dude gearing up to play in Week 2. Now, the bad news on Yeldon: he's not very good. So you have that to contend with. But the Jags don't have much else in the way of healthy RBs and Yeldon's coming cheap. Even in a loss last week he saw 21 carries and 6 targets. Jacksonville's taking on a Charger team who allowed roughly a million yards per touch to Spencer Ware last week as well. Yeldon is especially a value on DraftKings if you think he stays active in the passing game.

 

 

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Quick note: There is a lot of WR value this week. A lot. These four guys are top plays but we will have some more in our additional value plays and stacks articles later in the week.
Antonio Brown FD 9200 DK 9900
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 21.45 DK - 25.94
If Brown is going to go off for the 6th most receiving yards in a given week with Josh Norman covering him, it's fairly safe to say he's going to be a play almost regardless of match-up at these prices. Cincinnati was pretty stingy against the pass last season, ranking in the top 10 in terms of DVOA against WR1s and overall passing defense, but with a new cast of mostly bad characters in Pittsburgh, Brown seems to be options 1-3 from Roethlisberger. The Bengals were tough on the Jets' receivers last week, but the Jets don't have anyone in the same league as Brown. A safe play in any format, even at these insane prices.

Odell Beckham Jr. FD 9400 DK 9500
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 21.13 DK - 25.01
We called Beckham one of the big losers in terms of public perception after a disappointing week 1 performance against the Cowboys, and while that's fair, there's a lot more to the story here. First of all, the Giants ran just 52 offensive plays in their opener. For a frame of reference, the slowest defensive teams allowed about 59 plays per game last season. If the Giants ran a league average number of plays, you're looking at roughly a 20% increase in opportunity across the board, and Beckham winds up seeing 10+ targets over the course of the game.

And this week? Beckham is playing in the game with the highest total against the team that was the very worst at defending the pass last season, and who allowed the 7th most points per play to opposing WR1s. Yes, you need to pay up for him here - but this is absolutely a spot to be greedy when others are fearful.

Larry Fitzgerald FD 7400 DK 6400
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 16.99 DK - 20.65
Going into week 1, I don't think anyone was entirely sure how the wide receiver opportunities would shake out in Arizona. Would we see the continued emergence of John Brown? Would Floyd "take the leap?" Nah. Just boring old Larry Fitzgerald, leading his team in targets and receptions, and getting the lion's share of the red zone opportunities as well. While Fitzgerald is a lot less explosive than he was in his prime, he is clearly the primary chain-mover and touchdown scorer in this receiving corp, and that's going to have a lot of value at sub WR1 prices. He's got a fantastic match-up with Tampa Bay, who just got embarrassed by Mohammed Sanu at the same spot on the field where Fitzgerald plays. Seems like a very high floor play with upside if you believe in the touchdown potential.

Kelvin Benjamin FD 7500 DK 6500
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 18.87 DK - 22.3
It didn't take long for the Devin Funchess buzz to go away, now did it? After missing all of 2015, Benjamin seemingly slid right back into his late 2014 role, drawing double-digit targets and converting them into solid yards and a score. And the beautiful thing? He's still off a lot of radars going into this week thanks to the short memory of most DFS players. If Benjamin can go 6/91 and a touch against an incredibly stout Denver defense, we might be in store for some downright epic performances in the not too distant future. And by not too distant, I mean this weekend. While San Francisco had their way with Case Keenum and the Rams, the Panthers are an entirely different animal. After watching a defense blank a struggling squad like the Rams, it's easy to forget that this is the same team that was ranked 29th against the pass last season, and 25th against WR1s. Grab Benjamin before this price climbs another 10%.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Jason Witten FD 5900 DK 4300
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 13.29 DK - 16.67
It's sometimes just silly talking head sports crap to call a player a "safety valve" for a new quarterback but in the case of Witten that really seemed to be the case in how Dak targeted him in the first week. Of course, the Cowboys may start to open things up more as Prescott gets more comfortable but Witten should remain very much a part of the growing process for Dak. He saw a game high 14 targets and I don't suspect that number drops off a cliff for Witten against the Redskins. Washington struggled with the Steelers in the pass game last week though Dallas isn't as strong a group. But the price reflects the difference and Witten is still a great value on both sites if you think he's Dak's main target in the passing game.

Gary Barnidge FD 6000 DK 4000
Opponent BAL
Proj Points FD - 10.85 DK - 13.29
It isn't writing up a guy coming off a week where we not only wrote him up, but he also went out and scored a fat 0.0 fantasy points. Brutal. But a big issue with Barnidge's futility could have been an RGIII thing who looked just lost out there before getting hurt. This week it'll once again be Josh McCown under center who made Barnidge a huge target guy last year, especially in the red zone. I think Barnidge bounces back here and is an under-owned player because of the week one struggles.

 

 

DEFENSE/ SPECIAL TEAMS

New England Patriot vs. Miami Dolphins
Two weeks in a row and two weeks of recommending the defense facing the Dolphins. In this one the Patriots come in as -6.5 favorites with the Dolphins only projected for 17.5 implied points. That's the lowest of any team this week. It makes sense considering the Dolphins blow. They couldn't get anything going against Seattle last week and should struggle again here. The Patriots put up an admirable performance against a strong Cardinals' offense featuring a bunch of A-list talent forcing bad pass from Palmer and sacking him three times. The Dolphins have so little to be afraid of the low game total suggests the Patriots could slow this one way down as well. They are a cheaper team you can fit on on DST this week and could end up being the chalk play.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Another team who couldn't get any offense going last week were the Browns. They are switching QBs (and yes I know I just wrote up their TE) but the Browns are so light on offensive weapons that they pose very little threat. The WRs are almost completely unknown, the running backs don't scare you and the defense has trouble getting the opponent off the field. That's all lining up for a nice spot with the Ravens who held Buffalo to a whopping 7 points last week and 160 total yards. That's about as low number as you'll see in an NFL game. The Browns could come close here and the Ravens are another cheap D to swap in there.

KICKERS

Seriously? We're not going to great lengths to write up specific kickers each week. We suggest you take kickers in decent weather (and particularly domes) from games with high Vegas totals. Generally, you're not going to want to spend much on kicker since there's frequently a good spot to grab on the cheap. By and large we suggest you simply see how much money you have left over after using players you really like, and find the best play from there. You can also just use our lineup optimizer, of course.

Football's here, baby!

Again, you can grab a free trial of our NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users crush it this daily fantasy NFL season.

You can grab a free 2 WEEK trial to test out yourself.