Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/28/16

 

Welcome back to the last hump day baseball slate of the regular season. With just one afternoon game(SEA @ HOU)  we will concentrate on the 14 game main slate tonight. The pitching is less than ideal making it a an excellent night to lower your cash game exposure and get in a few more tournaments, loading up on the bats. Let's dig in!

 

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PITCHER

Cole Hamels FD 9900 DK 10700
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @TEX
FD - 36.41 DK - 23.94

After a rough patch Hamels bounced back in Oakland going seven innings shutting out the Rangers on six hits while striking out seven. Even with the recent struggles he has put together an impressive season with 15 wins keeping his xFIP below 5.00 and striking out over nine batters per nine innings. He gets a nice mathcup vs. the Brewers who are far from a playoff spot and while they rank Top 10 in wOBA against left handed pitching they strike out at a high 24.8% rate. The Rangers are the biggest favorites(-210) on the slate giving Hamels a very high win percentage making him safe in all formats.

 

 

Jeff Samardzija FD 9400 DK 8900
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @SF
FD - 36.17 DK - 23.88

Coming off his best start of the season(7.0 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 9K's), the Shark is in another nice spot getting the Rockies on the road where they are much less of a threat ranking 25th in wOBA(.301) and 27th in wRC+(84) away from Coors field. While his K rate(7.11 /9) has been just average for the season he has stuck out 9+ batters twice in his last four starts with one of them coming against these very Rockies, in Coors Field. The Giants are big -190 favorites putting Samardzija in a great spot to pick up a win providing us DFSers with a high floor and if he can strike out around a batter per inning also provides a a nice ceiling for tournaments at a price under $10K on both sites.
Jose De Leon FD 7400 DK 8500
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SD
FD - 36.3 DK - 23.61

If you are looking for a high upside GPP play consider Jose De Leon tonight. He is coming off a disappointing start in Arizona where he gave up four earned runs in 3.2 innings but has shown the upside he possesses, especial yin his first start where he struck out nine Padres in six innings back at the start of September. He will get a great opportunity to put up another solid start in the final week of the season against these same Padres who rank dead last in wOBA(.290) and wRC+(81) against right handed pitching. He is a risky play for sure but should also come with very low ownership.

 

 

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CATCHER

Victor Martinez FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - CLE (McAllister) Park - @DET
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.54

After a disappointing 2015 season V Mart has bounce back in a big way slashing .292/.354/.482 this season with a 27 home runs. He comes into Wednesday red hot with hits in seven straight games including three long balls. He has a nice floor against Zach McAllister who is making his second start of the season after a bulk of his work has come out of the bullpen where he has recorded a 4.52 xFIP and unsustainable 81% left on base rate. V Mart ranks high as a PTS/$ play on the projection system and is a safe play in any format.

 

Jacob Realmuto FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - NYM (Lugo) Park - @MIA
FD - 8.16 DK - 6.8

While I prefer V Mart on DraftKings under $4K, I will take my chances with Realmuto on FanDuel at a $500 discount. He has been hitting 7th for the Marlins and comes with very nice reverse splits against right handed pitching where he holds a .353 wOBA and 121 wRC+ in 2016. The Marlins, who are still fighting for a wildcard spot, will look to rebound after a blowout to the Mets on Tuesday night. Look for Realmuto to help provide a boost. He is safe in all formats on FanDuel but should be reserved for GPP's on DraftKings.

 

 

 

FIRST BASE

Lucas Duda FD 2500 DK 4100
Opponent - MIA (Cashner) Park - @MIA
FD - 11.36 DK - 8.6

After going hitless in his first three at bats since returning to the Mets since his injury in May, Duda has really started to heat up with hits in four straight games. His price on DraftKings never really seemed to drop over the last couple months where he was absent but he comes in as a top PTS/$ value play on FanDuel tonight. He has the power upside as he has showed us the last two season hitting 27 and 30 home runs  and gets a nice matchup vs. Andrew Cashner and his 4.57 xFIP and 13.8% HR/FB rate.

 

Eric Hosmer FD 3500 DK 3200
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @KC
FD - 11.28 DK - 8.84

Hosmer's disappointing second half has kept his price in the affordable range on both sites making him a top value play on both sites on Wednesday. He hasn't provided the average we have come to expect but the power is still there  as he has hit five home runs and added 20 RBI and 14 runs scored in the moth of September. He has been much better against right handed pitching this season and while Ervin Santana has been solid this season the price is right for Hosmer to hit or exceed value.

 

 

SECOND BASE

Matt Carpenter FD 3900 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @STL
FD - 12.31 DK - 9.46

He made his return to the lineup last night after missing Monday night's game with pain in his right finger and hit a home run in four at bats and will once again be a top value play on Wednesday. The price is right under $4K on both sites for a leadoff hitter on one of the best offensive teams in the majors.

 

Brian Dozier FD 3900 DK 5400
Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @KC
FD - 10.34 DK - 8.14

Over the second half of the season, Brian Dozier has been one of the best , if not the best, at the position for fantasy. He is slashing a cool .305/.356/.422 since the All Star break with 28 home run, 56 RBI and 54 runs scored. The bulk of the damage has come since he was moved into the leadoff role at the beginning of August. His price is sky high on DraftKings making him a GPP only play but safe in all formats on FanDuel under $4K on Wednesday.

 

 

SHORTSTOP

Aledmys Diaz FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @STL
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.5

Diaz returned to the lineup on Tuesday after spending time with friends and family following the tragic death to Jose Fernandez. He came back in a big way hitting a grand slam in an emotional moment and game for Diaz and the Cardinals. Diaz has really impressed in his rookie season with a .301 average and .370 on base percentage to go along with 16 home runs and a 132 wRC+. The Cardinals are projected for one of the highest team totals on the slate(4.74) and Diaz should be right in the middle of it hitting out of the two hole.

 

Tim Anderson FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.63 DK - 8.57

If it's value you're after then look no further than Tim Anderson who sits right in the $3k range on both sites on Wednesday. He numbers haven't been as impressive in the second half of the season but he still hits at the top of the White Sox lineup and hits much better against left handed pitching(.341 wOBA/113 wRC+).  The matchup may not be elite but Snell's ERA has been right around 1.5 runs worse on the road this season where he has also allowed opposing lineups to hit for a .295 average. Anderson is safe in all formats.

 

 

 

THIRD BASE

Adrian Beltre FD 3600 DK 4100
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.77 DK - 9.02

Third base is very interesting tonight and gives us two players who sit near the top of the projections on different sites. On DratKings one of the top plays as the season comes to a close is Adrian Beltre. It has been an impressive 19th major league season for Beltre and he is closing it out it in a big way slashing .341/.398/.635 in the month of September. The Rangers are currently projected for the most runs of any team on the slate and Beltre hits hits right in the middle of the lineup making him an elite play in any format.

 

Jose Reyes FD 3000 DK 4600
Opponent - MIA (Cashner) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.37 DK - 8.31

With Beltre being one of the top projected plays on DraftKings it is Jose Reyes on FanDuel that comes in rated a bit higher due to the $600 discount tonight. He is coming off a big three hit night and now has hits in four straight and 10 of his last 12 games and still provides upside in the way of stolen bases. The consistency plus the price makes him safe in all formats on FanDuel.

 

 

 

OUTFIELD

Justin Upton FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - CLE (McAllister) Park - @DET
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.4
J.D. Martinez FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - CLE (McAllister) Park - @DET
FD - 12.17 DK - 9.31

Kicking off the outfield value plays today we have a pair of Tigers bats. There are currently conflicting reports about the Indians starting pitcher but the initial projection is based off the assumption Trevor Bauer will be on the mound. It's been a rough season overall but even worse as it comes to a close for Bauer as he has given up four or more earned runs in four straight starts while striking out under seven batters per nine. If it were McAllister to take the mound it would be his second start of the season and while he has shown K upside out of the pen he has pitched to a 4.52 xFIP with a high 3.93 BB/9 rate.

J.D. Martinez is the safer choice with a .313 batting average and .380 OBP for the season but Upton has been the hotter of the two down the stretch slashing .278/.367/.709 with 10 home runs in the month of September. No matter who is on the mound for the Indians, look for the Tigers to put up runs.
Randal Grichuk FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @STL
FD - 10.41 DK - 8.2
Stephen Piscotty FD 3100 DK 3300
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @STL
FD - 11.04 DK - 8.65

The Cardinals are another team that provides a high number of excellent stand alone value plays. They are a Top 10 offensive team this season but do not have a hitter over $4,200 on DraftKings or $3,900 on FanDuel. This is a perfect way to secure a nice floor at an affordable price while leaving room for some elite hitters which can elevate your overall ceiling. Grichuk hits down in the seven and eight hole but has been the better hitter in the month of September slashing .291/.330/.523 with four home runs, 15 RBI and 14 runs scored. Looking at the overall scope of things throughout the entire season it has been Piscotty providing more value  at the top of the lineup striking out over 9% less than Grichuk. Both will be in a favorable situation on Wednesday against Anthony DeSclafani who has given up nine earned runs over his last two starts and six home runs over his last four starts.

Hunter Pence FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @SF
FD - 9.96 DK - 7.85

Pence is coming off a three hit night which elevated his average to .294 for the season. He is finishing the year out strong after another injured riddled season and has hits in 17 of his last 19 games. The consistency plus price make him a top play and safe on both sites tonight.
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