Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/30/16
Welcome back to the last Friday night in DFS baseball of the 2016 regular season. The end of the MLB season can get very dicey with playoff bound teams resting players and non playoff bound teams giving a ton of opportunity to young players as they prepare for next year. I would advise lowering your bankroll exposure down the stretch and to pay close attention to starting lineups and news throughout the day. Let get started!
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The playoffs are now less than a week away but for the Giants it's do or die right now. They hold a one game lead for the final wildcard spot and sit just 1.5 games back of the Mets for the top wildcard(going into Thursday night). You can expect a full effort from the Giants ace who has been terrific in 2016 with a 10.09 K/9 rate and sub 3.00 ERA which is backed up by an above average 3.50 xFIP. He will face the Dodgers who are locked into their playoff position as the National League West Champions and cannot catch the Cubs for home field advantage. Expect the Dodgers to rest some players down the stretch.
The Rangers have the American League West division locked up but remain in a race with the Red Sox for home field advantage through the ALCS. They will toss their ace Yu Darvish on the mound Friday as he gets a terrific matchup. The Rays have been out of the playoffs for awhile now and have struggled down the stretch with the 23rd best wRC+(82) over the last 14 days with a sky high 28% K rate. That lines up perfect for Darvish as he has provided an elite 11.45 K/9 rate on the season with an impressive 3.33 xFIP. He comes in a little lower than MadBum in the projections due to the price making him an elite pivot in tournaments.
If you wanna go the value route Taijuan Walker is definitely in play Friday night. He has struggled with consistency down the the stretch but come with huge strikeout upside as he has displayed with three 11 K efforts this season including a shutout of the Angels in mid September. His issue this season has been the long ball(17% Hr/FB rate) and that shouldn't be an issue tonight as the A's rank in the bottom third of the league in wOBA, wRC+ and ISO against right handed pitching this season. The Mariners are big -190 favorites tonight giving Walker a high win potential explaining the love the projection system has given him.
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Evan Gattis FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - LAA (Wright) Park - @LAA
FD - 8.89 DK - 6.72
Gattis has been red hot down the stretch with six home runs and 162 wRC+ over the last 14 days. He will have a great shot to keep the hot streak going on Friday vs. Daniel Wright of the Angels who has been pretty awful since being recalled September 10th. In four starts he has allowed 15 earned runs including five long balls and is striking out less than 4.5 batters per nine. Gattis isn't the most consistent option for cash games but comes with huge upside for tournaments.
Buster Posey FD 3200 DK 3400
Opponent - LAD (Hill) Park - @SF
FD - 9.44 DK - 7.29
Posey is the clear play if you are looking for consistency tonight. He offers positve splits against left handed pitching and faces Rich Hill who is most likely not going to be in there for more than five or six innings max with the Dodgers already locking up the West division. Posey has been heating up down the stretch slashing .292/.333/.458 with two home runs and 11 RBI since mid September. In what will be a playoff atmosphere, expect the Giants top player to step up and lead the team to victory.
Wil Myers FD 3400 DK 5100
Opponent - ARI (Shipley) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.63 DK - 9.39
It's been a disappointing second half of the season for Myers but he has still shown us tremendous upside which is perfect for tournament play as he will most likely come under owned as well. He gets a great matchup vs. Braden Shipley whose specialty has been giving up the long ball with an 18% HR/FB rate and 4.97 xFIP.
Miguel Cabrera FD 3900 DK 5300
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 13.01 DK - 9.9
The safe play for cash games tonight is going to be Miguel Cabrera. He has no issue with playing a full game as the Tigers are just 1.5 games back of the last wildcard spot going into Thursday night in what is going to be a dog fight through the weekend. Miggy has been red hot down the stretch slashing .340/.466/.617 with three home runs, 14 RBI and 10 runs scored. Look for a clutch effort from the Tigers slugger on Friday night.
Chris Carter FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 11.71 DK - 8.74
I add Chris Carter to the first base picks for obvious reasons. He is playing in Coors Field and power is his specialty. The problem with Carter has been the strikeout rate(32%) which shouldn't be an issue tonight against Bettis who has struck out less than seven batters per nine this season. Carter is hitting under .200 over the last 14 days but has recorded five home runs and comes with huge upside. His best value is on DraftKings where he is the cheapest of the three I listed.
Robinson Cano FD 3300 DK 5300
Opponent - OAK (Alcantara) Park - @SEA
FD - 12.54 DK - 9.75
If you are paying up at the second base position tonight look no further than Robinson Cano. He is putting up his best offensive season as a Mariner and has been hot down the stretch slashing .306/.364/.592 with three home runs and a 148 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Not only is he hot right now but he also gets one of the best matchups of the night vs. Alcantara who has given up five home runs and a 5.28 xFIP in his first four starts since being called up in September. Cano is safe in all formats.
Greg Garcia FD 2500 DK 2900
Opponent - PIT (Glasnow) Park - @STL
FD - 8.59 DK - 7.01
If you are paying up for pitching and looking for a punt at second base, Garcia is a viable option tonight. He comes into Friday's action with a hit in five straight games and has spent time at the top of the Cards lineup at times. Either way, at these prices he doesn't need much to hit value and is more about what he opens up with the savings than what he can provide for an upside.
Asdrubal Cabrera FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - PHI (Asher) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.93
Mr. September for the Mets just can't be avoided at this point. He is hitting .330 with a .404 OBP since the start of the month and has added six home runs, 17 RBI and 17 runs scored. While his splits show a stronger average against southpaws, he has produced more power against right handed pitching with 20 of his 23 home runs and a .213 ISO on the season. If you can afford him he is the top play at the position.
Elvis Andrus FD 2800 DK 4400
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @TEX
FD - 8.15 DK - 7.08
Outside of Cabrera I am looking towards the value end of things at the shortstop position for the part on Friday night. Andrus hits at the bottom of the order which puts his mid $4K price on DraftKings a little out of range considering you can pay $300 more and get to Cabrera. He comes in under $3K on FanDuel and is safe in all formats and is a terrific high value salary relief option in all formats. He has been red hot in September slashing .364/.437/.662 with 13 RBI and 19 runs scored. Pretty impressive from a nine hitter.
Jose Iglesias FD 2100 DK 2600
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 6.94 DK - 5.81
Another punt play, this time on both sites, who has been hot currently with hits in 11 of his last 13 games played. He doesn't carry much upside hitting at the bottom of the order but like Andrus he gets on base as the lineup turns over and has run scoring potential. At a low to mid $2K price he helps you roster an elite arm on FanDuel and possibly both of them on DraftKings tonight.
Nolan Arenado FD 4200 DK 5500
Opponent - MIL (Suter) Park - @COL
FD - 16.71 DK - 12.66
If you are jumping on the Rockies train for one last weekend to get some Coors action Arenado is going to be the top play of the week. The ownership will be high but he the upside is hard to pass up at home. He will be facing rookie Brent Suter who will be making his first start since August 23rd where he got shelled by the Mariners. He has been impressive in 12 bullpen appearances allowing no earned runs nut striking out only 10 batters and carrying a 4.79 xFIP into tonight. If you are playing cash games I would advise saving some salary and spending down but in tournaments he should be a center piece of lineup construction.
Todd Frazier FD 3600 DK 5000
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.96 DK - 8.63
Frazier, who has been having a rough year at the plate with a .228 average and 24% K rate, has been money down the stretch. He has hit .306 with .373 OBP over the final month of the season with seven home runs, 15 RBI and 20 runs scored. He continues to show some sneaky speed up side as well with five stolen bases during that time period. Despite low average he has put up career highs in home runs(40), runs(89) and RBI(98) this season and has hit 30 of those home runs against right handed pitching.
Adrian Beltre FD 3500 DK 4100
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.79 DK - 9.03
Any time you get Adrian Beltre facing at a mid tier price you can lock him into your cash game lineup. On a night where Coors is in play with Arenado commanding such a high ownership, Beltre is also a nice value play in tournaments. He rarely strikes out(10.4%) and has been getting on base at a .370 clip over the last 14 days. I probably should have listed him at the top. Moving on.
Carlos Gomez FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - TB (Andriese) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.69 DK - 9.75
The Rangers appear to have found their leadoff hitter heading into the playoffs. Since taking over at the top of order on September 10th, Gomez is hitting .349 while getting on base at a .406 clip and has scored 11 runs and driven in 15 over those 16 games. The price is right on both sites and he ranks out as a top play on the projection system for both sites.
If you are paying up for the Rockies you can't miss out on the middle of the order bats in Cargo and and Dahl. Cargo seen a drop off in power this season with just 25 home runs but continues to drive runs in at an elite pace with 99 RBI and has also added 87 runs scored in 2016. He has been better against right handed pitching but Suter, a relief pitcher for most of the season, is most likely not going to see the 5th inning. Dahl has been the better of the two since being called up July 25th hitting .316 with a .359 on base percentage. He has also added seven home runs and 42 runs scored. HE is the safe of the two and the better value play but both are definitely in play at home Friday night.
Michael Taylor FD 2100 DK 3800
Opponent - MIA (Cashner) Park - @WSH
FD - 7.21 DK - 6.17
He is priced fairly on DraftKings but is a near must play on FanDuel at $2,100. His role will soon be reduced when the playoffs role around but with the National shaving locked up the division they are resting some players, especially Bryce Harper in the outfield. Taylor made his first start since the end of August on Thursday night going 3 for 4 with a double and two runs batted in against the D Backs. He has spent time in teh leadoff spot earlier in the season and if he were to get another opportunity would be an elite play, especially on FanDuel.
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