Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Division Series Round - 10/9/16
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals
We have a match up here between two guys that are very difficult to predict, Rich Hill and Tanner Roark. While both have been great as wholes, they have been atrocious on occasion and we have seen them go weeks without a quality start. Both of these offenses are similar in a few ways, one of which being the the reliance on the top of the order. If either of these teams struggle up top, it works its way down and will affect the whole offense. Hill is more of a strikeout guy, as evident by his 9.27 K/9 that is backed up by plenty of peripherals and batted ball rates. Roark is more of a cash game option, as he is more consistent and rarely gets blown up. The game will be played in Nationals Park, which is a pretty neutral park. All in all, I am not a huge fan of either of these guys, but they are definitely in play on this slate. I prefer Rich Hill in tournaments and Tanner Roark in cash games, though on DK, you could play both of them in all formats.
The offense is kind of on the same note as both of the pitchers. I am not a huge fan, but they have a bunch of viable options. Hill definitely has struggled on occasion, though the occasion is rare. Because this is the playoffs, we are going to be dealing with a lot of really good pitchers. Because of that, we can't be picky with our hitters and we have to find some diamonds in the rough. I am a bigger fan of the Dodgers, due to the fact that Tanner Roark will rarely throw a clean slate. There is some definite weather concerns, but you can't avoid this game as there are only 2 games on the slate. My favorite 3 hitters from this game are going to be Corey Seager, Justin Turner and Trea Turner. I expect Turner to be low owned as it is a righty righty match up. However, he actually hits righties much better and proved that with a homer against Scherzer last game out. In conclusion, nobody is in a fantastic spot, but both offenses have some upside and will likely put up a few runs, at least.
Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox
This is probably one of the only games where I am actually looking to target a bunch of hitters, and am not a fan of the pitching options. Both Tomlin and Buchholz are pitchers that do have upside, but will struggle more often that not. The Red Sox lost both games in Cleveland, and will need to bounce back today if they want to have any chance. Because of that, I have absolutely no interest in Josh Tomlin. Buchholz however, I could see in a large field tournament. He has strikeout upside and can pitch over 100 pitches if he is dealing. That being said, there are better option in the above and below games. Both of these offenses are very potent, and I will definitely have some interest in a ton of these bats, especially from the Red Sox.
To be clear, I am not a big narrative guy. I prefer to look at concrete stats and base things off of that more so than if it is someones birthday or they are playing in there hometown. That being said, I think there is something to look at when the Red Sox are down 2-0 in David Ortiz's last season. I expect them to come out strong tonight and have a big game. They will be facing off with Josh Tomlin, a right handed pitcher that is actually a lot worse against other righties. In 97 innings against right handers, Tomlin has given up 22 home runs and has held a .357 wOBA. He is decent against lefties, but struggles with the longball. David Ortiz and Mookie Betts are my favorite plays on the board, but I think you can go a bunch of different ways with the Red Sox. On the Indians side of the ball, I am still excited, though not as much. This is a much win game for the Sox, which means they will be putting there best relievers in the game, which are pretty good. I prefer a 1 off here and would go with a guy like Kipnis or Santana.
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays
This is a really tough day for daily fantasy baseball. Colby Lewis is pitching in a playoff game, which is blasphemous to start with. He is not a good starting pitcher and I will not entertain the idea of playing him in any format today. While the public does paint him a bad picture, it is not totally inaccurate. Sanchez on the other hand, is a very talented youngster that has been a big part of the Blue Jays making the playoffs. He is the best pitcher on the slate today and will likely be the guy I lean on in cash games. the win is also pretty safe as the Jays will almost certainly score a few runs off of Colby Lewis and the poor Rangers bullpen. The ROgers Centre is definitely a hitters park, but it has played rather neutral this year, for whatever reason. In conclusion, I will have a lot of exposure to Sanchez and none of Lewis. If you want to play Colby Lewis, you are more brave than I.
The Rangers are in a pretty tough spot against Sanchez, and I will therefore be limiting my exposure to just tournaments. However, the Blue Jays are in a completely different spot. They are my favorite offense on the board, though only slightly above the Red Sox. COlby Leis has held a putrid .341 wOBA against both lefties and righties since 2012, and his peripherals suggest negative regression, if anything. The Blue Jays have a ton of huge bats in the lineup, though some are better at hitting righties than others. Edwin Encarnacion is my favorite of the bunch, with Bautista and Donaldson following. Ezequiel Carrera may also find himself in the 1 spot, which would put him in play across the board.