Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FantasyAces  - Safeway Open

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Safeway Open

Silverado Country Club - Napa, CA

Par 72 - 7,203 Yards

 

After an exciting FedEX Cup playoffs and thrilling Ryder Cup the short off PGA Tour off season has come to an end. Did you blink? If so, you might have missed it. Since the Tour introduced the wrap around season it gives us fantasy golf enthusiasts exactly what we want. More golf! Last season was my first "full time" year in the writing and tout game and while the results were up and down from a playing standpoint, the picks were rock solid throughout the year. Don't believe me? Check out the 2015 Daily Overlay end of year rankings for all the sites that posted free picks throughout the year. I am never satisfied with my results unless I am winning every week and that's pretty much impossible. During the off season I sat down and first went through my spreadsheet to analyze what worked in the weighted rankings and what didn't. Through this fall(wrap around) season you may see some dramatic changes week to week as I get ready for the "real" season to begin in January.  If you ever have any suggestions please email me or hit me up on Twitter anytime. The next thing I did from a personal standpoint was analyze my own lineups and roster construction. This is where I failed the most last year. I spent so much time in the prep of the cheatsheet, article, podcasts and video chats that I neglected the biggest part of DFS success, lineup building.  I read articles, talked to some smart people, and made notes on a strategy moving forward. I am going to get back into cash games this year as I feel I can accurately predict cut makers on a large year long scale. I will also be playing less GPP lineups and concentrating most of my effort in single entry and 3 entry max tournaments as I just don't have the time to multi enter 10+ lineups on a weekly basis. This may change here and there, especially for the big tournies but for the most part I will have one main cash lineup and 3-5 GPP lineups. Enough about me, let's get into the golf.

The season kicks off with the Safeway Open at Silverado Country Club in Napa, California. The will be the third year hosting the tournament and if you don't recognize the name it was formerly know as the FRYS.com Open. With such a small sample size for course history it will be weighted very low this week and used mostly to break ties between two golfers. Previous experience at the course can be very important although not crucial to success in all cases. I feel current form can also be weighted down a bit this week as there is a ton of variance between golfers and how much rest they have taken in the off season, especially those who missed out on the end of the playoffs and Ryder Cup. What does that mean? I will be relying a ton stats this week in my model. That is much more of a challenge than looks as we have a ton of rookies and returning players coming off injuries. These players come without statistical rankings at the moment so some extra digging will be needed. The course is a shorter Par 72  stretching just over 7,200 yards with tree lined fairways with bunkers and water hazards mixed in. For the Strokes Gained Metrics I will be looking heavily at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee with more emphasis on distance than accuracy as the field averaged just over 50% for the week last time around. With so few fairways being hit the average GIR still sat around 68%. I will also be weighting Strokes Gained: Approach quite high as well with emphasis on Proximity over GIR with the large greens and the fact most golfers are hitting a ton of greens. I won't weighting Strokes Gained: Putting very high this week for a few reasons. First of all, both Grillo and Na(both in playoff last year) finished last years event losing strokes to the field in putting with five golfers out of 16 who finished T10 or better having lost strokes to the field as well. Of the other 11 golfers inside the Top 10 only four gained more than one strokes. Let's take a look at the picks.

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NFL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's). I will also be joining Doug on the Wednesday Podcast to discuss the tournament each week. I am always available on Twitter as well(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

 

High End Targets ($9,000+)

Matt Kuchar
Vegas Odds - 15/1
Draftkings - $11,500
FantasyAces - $6,000

Kuch went a second straight season without a win but recorded 11 Top 10's, his third highest total of his career. He once again proved to be one of the most consistent talents we have on Tour missing just two cuts in 26 events. He ranks #1 on my model this week as I am weighting stats quite high. While he ranks 37th in SG: OTT and 45th in SG: APP he ranked 8th in Par 4 scoring, 24th in Par 5 scoring and 13th in BoB%. He played here two years ago finishing 21st and was in contention going into Sunday before a final round 76. He is safe in all formats to kick off the wrap around season.

 

 

Justin Thomas
Vegas Odds - 25/1
Draftkings - $10,400
FantasyAces - $4,350

I love both Grillo and Thomas in this range and will have exposure to both but for the purpose of the article I lean Thomas as he is an absolute bargain on FantasyAces this week. He finished the 2016 season out strong with a T6 at the TOUR championship ending the the excellent run of "Johnson" his famed playoff mustache. You just have to love how these guys go out there and have fun while playing a serious game and very competitive game. Speaking of game, Thomas has all of that and more. He kicked off the wrap around season in style last season with a T3 here at Silverado(FRYS.com Open) and a win at the CIMB Classic(next weeks tourny). I look for another strong start this year as he looks to improve and contend more often. His SG: OTT scaresme a bit but it comes from his inaccuracy and like I mentioned earlier, it will be very possible to hit greens if you miss fairways. Just avoid the trouble. He ranks 29th in Par 4 scoring and 5th in Par 5 scoring.

 

 

Jhonattan Vegas
Vegas Odds - 50/1
Draftkings - $9,100
FantasyAces - $4,500

This is going to be my contrarian GPP play in the upper tier this week. I would have to look back but I am almost 99% sure Vegas has never had a salary in the top tier before. It seems crazy and most people may avoid him for this reason and that could make him an ownership gem this week. From July on Vegas was money in the bank and it started with a T4 at the Barbasol Championship which is a very weak field tourny but it lead to his 2nd career victory the next week at the Canadian Open. After that he had four Top 25's, a T50 and a T33 while making every cut down the stretch and making it to the TOUR Championship. Look for him to carry that momentum over into the wrap around season. It won't take much exposure to be over weight this week.

 

Also Consider - Kevin Na

 

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)

Brendan Steele
Vegas Odds - 50/1
Draftkings - $8,700
FantasyAces - $5,050

He recorded just two Top 10 finishes last season but had 11 Top 25's and made 19 of 26 cuts on the year(76%). At times his price was $9K+ on DraftKings so I am excited about his salary starting below that range this season. He has played here in each of the last two years finishing 21st and 17th and appears to be very comfortable at Silverado CC. He also hits on many of the stats I am looking at including a ranking of 26th in SG: OTT, 15th in Total Driving and 13th in Par 5 Scoring. He is safe in all formats this week.

 

 

Hudson Swafford
Vegas Odds - 80/1
Draftkings - $7,800
FantasyAces - $4,950

Like Steele, Hudson Swafford has played here both years that Silverado CC has hosted the tournament(formerly known as FRYS.com Open). He is the only golfer(Steele was close) in the field to finish both inside the Top 20 with a 17th last year and 8th the year before. He also hits in the stats department with rankings of 31st in SG: OTT, 56th in SG: APP, 29th in overall Proximity, 34th & 28th in Par 4/5 scoring and 19th in BoB%. A perfect fit for what I am looking for this week. He also finished the season out strong making 13 straight cuts. He is also safe in all formats this week.

 

 

Graham DeLaet
Vegas Odds - 100/1
Draftkings - $7,200
FantasyAces - $5,000

After tremendous 2013 & 2014 seasons where DeLaet recorded seven Top 10 finishes in each he has now gone back to back season with just three in each. The Weyburn , Saskatchewan native will look to rebound and it starts this week with the Safeway open. He has played this even in each of the last two years when it was the FRYS.com Open finishing 32nd and 39th. He can easily sniff the leaderboard with his amazing Ball Striking(17th) but falls short when it comes to his play around the green and most importantly on it with the putter. He scores well for DraftKings purposes as he ranks 27th in BoB% which always make him a boom or bust GPP play. Go Canada!!

 

Also Consider - Harold Varner III

 

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Trey Mullinax
Vegas Odds - 200/1
Draftkings - $6,500
FantasyAces - $4,000

I love taking a rookie in this spot as he will most likely be extremely low owned. Oh ya and Mullinax has a tremendous amount of talent and through watching interviews, seems to have it together between the ears. PGA Tour pro Michael Thompson, who had the same college coach, went as far as to say Mullinax's raw power is best compared to Dustin Johnson. That is a pretty sick comparison considering DJ was named the Player of the Year. Looking at his stats from the WEB.com Tour last year he ranked 7th in Driving Distance(318 yards), 47 in GIR(71%), 3rd in Putting Average(1.713) and 8th i Birdie Average(4.40). He is a raw talent and will most likely need some time to get comfortable on the new stage but has a ton of upside and make perfect sense in GPP this week.

 

Also Consider - Tyrone Van Aswegen

 

Safeway Open Update Thread

 

One. Great. Season. pic.twitter.com/uZlNnaHZIX

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 11, 2016

 

Want to see how more analysis and information on building lineups for TheSafeway Open? Chris has his targets and cheatsheet for only $5. He covers DraftKings & FantasyAces. Fill out the form below or Purchase Through PayPal.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.