Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 10/30/16

Sunday's here! NFL and NBA on the same day - DFS overload? Not a chance. It's truly the most wonderful time of the year. The big edge we can get on Sundays during the NFL season is that most people will be chasing their NFL losses by throwing in some basketball lineups. And let's be real, you might try and do that too. But never fear, we're here with dedicated people on every sport, every day, so you don't have to worry about throwing good money after bad. It's an interesting slate with lots of wrinkles today, so let's get to it.

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Point Guards

Russell Westbrook FD - $13000 DK - $12200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 59.29 DK - 62.67
Yup, he's still not expensive enough if he's going to get the league's best match-up. The Lakers have continued their organizational dedication to playing no defense whatsoever, and Westbrook's usage so far is literally off the charts of what we've seen in recent memory. Now he won't be match-up proof on these prices, but getting the best match-up possible for a fantasy point guard makes him a pretty easy lock for your 50/50 and double-up lineups today.

Jose Juan Barea FD - $5100 DK - $4500
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 25.29 DK - 27.28
Deron Williams FD - $6200 DK - $5700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.65 DK - 33.17
After Westbrook, unfortunately, safety at the point guard position goes flying out the window. The next best guys in my queue are the point guards in Dallas, though I can't say I feel great about it. Barea has been playing big minutes off the bench, and the fluidity with which he guides the second unit has too been too much for the Rockets while they try to adopt D'Antoni's transition "defense." I have to think D-Will could put up similar fantasy totals, but you're paying more for basically the same production, so I'd stick with Barea. It doesn't hurt that we have already seen Barea have success against Houston in this young season, and it also doesn't hurt that he's playing a ton of minutes for a guy priced at $5k and below. I prefer him over Williams for sure.

George Hill FD - $6200 DK - $5800
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.98 DK - 32.95
If you happen to be playing the early slate. This is a simple case of the sites not adapting quickly enough to Hill's new role and opportunity in Utah. He's pretty clearly a $7k level point guard with the current roster construction, and I like him for safety even in a tough match-up with Chris Paul and the Clippers.

A note on Stephen Curry: It's going to be tough to make sense of the Warriors' plays against Phoenix today. It's an all-world match-up, with Phoenix offering the delectable combination of a fast pace and lousy defense. But there are some issues with just jamming as many Warriors in as you can. The first the obvious - KD's arrival has diluted everyone's shot totals - and while the Dubs are cheaper across the board, it's not clear that they're quite cheap enough. The next is the blowout. The Suns fast pace can lead to a blowout happy environment, and that's most certainly not a good thing if you want to count on production from their opposition. I don't mind playing Steph here, but it seems like an unnecessary risk.

Keep an eye on: The Tony Parker/Manu Ginobili situation. Chances are good it was just routine rest that kept them out of Saturday night's game, but if Mills gets the start again, he's a very attractive option.

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Shooting Guards

Victor Oladipo FD - $7000 DK - $6500
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.79 DK - 37.66
We're not crystal on how the Thunder will use Oladipo just yet. He took 16 shots in just 26 minutes against Philly, and seemed to lose minutes due to his over-eagerness and inefficiency. He calmed down in their second game, adding just 1 shot in 18 more minutes in a game that went to overtime with Phoenix. He hasn't put it together in a big way just yet, but the Lakers are certainly a winning opportunity to just that. The combination of Nick Young, Jordan Clarkson, and Lou Williams will likely play something like no defense here. Now I don't think we want to get carried away on Oladipo just yet - his general decrease in time of possession might hurt his peripheral stats too much for his scoring to make up the difference - but a perfect match-up with LA is a great spot to roll the dice.

Wesley Matthews FD - $5000 DK - $4900
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.31 DK - 29.58
There isn't a less exciting feeling in daily fantasy basketball than calling Wes Matthews' number, but for cash game purposes, you don't always want exciting. Matthews has shot terribly so far this season and still paid value on these prices. If he can return to his career levels in terms of shooting percentage and maintain his 15 shots per game volume, you'll be more than happy to play him against the offense-first Harden. I mentioned this above, but the Rockets might wind up being the new Lakers defensively by the time this is all said and done, and capitalizing early on a sneakily terrific match-up will be a solid edge for you in the early season.

Klay Thompson FD - $6300 DK - $6500
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 34.53 DK - 37.34
The key to guessing right on Golden State from night to night is going to be figuring out who is going to get the shots. In game 1 it looked like Klay would be the odd man out. And then he led the team in shots. There will be a lot of shots to go around in this one, but that's almost beside the point. At $6,300 on FanDuel you're getting roughly a 10% savings on Klay's value from last season, and it doesn't look like he'll be 10% worse overall. Like Curry, he'll be nothing like match-up proof even on these prices, but in a perfectly ideal match-up with the Suns I think you can run him where you'd like.

Also considered: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. On the off chance the Pistons are not involved in a blowout at some point, KCP could put up very respectable fantasy totals on these prices. I don't think you'll want him in favor of the above options, but he's a fine guy to have on your radar.

Small Forwards

Harrison Barnes FD - $5400 DK - $6100
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.95 DK - 32.58
The breakout player of Friday's slate, Barnes has shed his "guy who stands in the corner hoping not to miss" role with the Warriors and demonstrated that he's ready and willing to take on a much bigger role in the offense. Barnes has added 20% more minutes this season but has doubled his shots per game, and yet we're only paying on the increase in minutes. If the bump in minutes and usage are even close to legit, Barnes will wind up being a $7,000 player in short order. I expect him to be a nearly unanimous start in cash games considering his last huge performance was against the very team he'll be playing tonight, and he looks like a great guy to run out in all formats.

T.J. Warren FD - $5000 DK - $5000
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 25.52 DK - 26.45
I mean, have you seen what Warren has done in his first two games this season? He played an incredible 46 minutes in an overtime game with OKC, and seems to have completely supplanted PJ Tucker in the starting role, AND PJ tucker in the back-up role. While I don't expect him to land in the high 30s/low 40s minutes in the long term, he even paid 5x points per dollar in just 30 minutes against the Kings. Golden State is a bad match-up both from a game script and defensive perspective, and the arrival of Durant certainly doesn't help matters. But Warren is just so cheap and a big enough part of the offense and the game should be fast paced enough that I don't mind him in any format.

Considered: Kevin Durant. And basically every Warrior. It looks like KD does enough around his scoring to not fall too victim to the "rotating superstar" issue in Golden State, but it still feels a little risky to invest that much money in a guy when you can play a whole team's worth of production in Westbrook. Still, he's considerably cheaper, and you might be able to run both. Wouldn't shock me if he wound up in optimal lineups when it's all said and done.

Power Forwards

Tobias Harris FD - $6200 DK - $5900
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 32.23 DK - 33.9
Harris has slid seamlessly into his role as the solid, if unspectacular mid-range value play. But here's the buying opportunity on Harris - Detroit's back to back blowouts have left all of their players dangling from an opportunity perspective, and if Harris slides back into the 34 minutes a game role he had last season, we're getting him at a slight discount here. Milwaukee had the 7th worst defensive efficiency last season, and while it's not a dream match-up or anything, Harris should be solid enough to provide 5x or so points per dollar here.

Markieff Morris FD - $5600 DK - $5600
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 24.76 DK - 26.22
We've seen Markieff happily chuck up high-teens shots per game in past stops during his career, and the 18 the launched in game 1 are a very welcome sign. While there were more shots to go around thanks to Beal's foul trouble, Markieff wound up out-shooting the ice cold John Wall as well. Memphis plays slowly, and plays well on defense - neither of which are great signs when we want to grab players who are facing them. But Morris is just so cheap that we probably need to keep buying until we find out that the Wiz want him to play a smaller role in the offense.

LaMarcus Aldridge FD - $7600 DK - $7100
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 37.38 DK - 38.58
The Spurs are still pretty clearly trying to figure out how the shots are going to be distributed in world without Timmay and with even more intermittent attendance from Parker and Ginobili, but it seems like the price has just gone too far down on Aldridge for our lineup optimizer to be able to ignore him. As of this writing Aldridge is on pace to pay value against the Pelicans, and he's running terribly on 4-12 shooting from the field. He's shooting roughly 12% more per minute than he did last season, and he's cheaper than what we had to pay for him then. There's some chance that Aldridge turns more into the guy he was in Portland than the guy he was last year, and if that's the case, he'll be a tremendous bargain even in slow match-ups like this one with Miami.

Centers

Steven Adams FD - $4700 DK - $5800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.07 DK - 33.26
After the opener with Philly it looked like Adams was going to soak up a lot of the shots left behind in Kevin Durant's absence, and while that didn't totally play out against the Suns, one constant remained: the minutes. We saw Adams become a very productive fantasy player on big minutes in the playoffs last season, and with another year of maturity and trust from his coaches, he could really be ready to blossom. On FD in particular his price is simply too low, and considering that he has the league's best match-up for opposing fantasy centers, it's hard to imagine him not paying at least 5x points per dollar here. Positively love him tonight.

Tyson Chandler FD - $4200 DK - $4300
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 28.9 DK - 30.29
Chandler is just absurdly cheap for a guy who's grabbed 10 rebounds in each of his first 2 starts, and even cheaper relative to his projection if you believe in last game's minutes. Truthfully, it's a tough sell to suggest he'll keep seeing those kind of minutes going forward, particularly given the blow-out risk inherent here. But with Bogut gone and the Warriors going even smaller, he should be able to both crash the boards and finish on the pick and roll with aplomb. I don't mind him in any format.

Consider: Andrew Bogut. We're used to seeing him play low 20s, high teens minutes as a member of the Warriors, but if 20 is going to be his floor and his ceiling is in the high 20s, he's basically just an excellent value play. His ceiling will always be limited on account of his less than excellent offensive game, but as a high-floor rebounder/shot blocker you could likely do a lot worse.

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