Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/3/16

After a #hashtag #wildwednesday it's a relief to settle into a nice 5 game slate for Thursday. There's still plenty of uncertainty around this slate that we'll get to - where are Will Barton's minutes going? How about the big man minutes in Boston? Is Kris Dunn legit? Lots of drama for a few games, so let's get to it.

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Point Guards

So much value at so many positions today, and point guard is no exception. For a lot of positions we'll break guys down into groups to give you the bigger pitcher.
The Headliners
Stephen Curry FD - $8600 DK - $8800
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 42.49 DK - 46.25
Russell Westbrook FD - $12200 DK - $12900
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 59.87 DK - 63.29
Let's not bury the lead, shall we? In one of the most anticipated meetings of the season, we'll get to see Westbrook and Curry square off after Curry stole Westbrook's guyfriend. These teams are both playing at record setting PACEs, and both will have big incentive to put up huge numbers. I'm guessing Curry spends more time deferring to KD thanks to the "revenge factor" and the fact that he's generally okay with deferring, and that Westbrook dribbles and shoots on nearly every single possession. Both seem like reasonable spots to spend up, though I'll prefer Westbrook here by a considerable margain in a game that's simply hard to evaluative without bringing in the narrative pieces.

The Cheap Guys
Kris Dunn FD - $4900 DK - $4900
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 34.45 DK - 36.73
Ty Lawson FD - $4900 DK - $5100
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 28.38 DK - 30.36
It's not clear that you should go double cheap at PG today, but you certainly could. Dunn is a surefire chalk play thanks to his ability to let you spend up elsewhere. He easily paid 6x on this price in his first game as a starter, and didn't even do anything exceptionally out of the ordinary. His apparently underrated defense adds to both his floor and his ceiling, and I'll say that he's conservatively 10% too cheap if he's going to continue to get minutes like he did last time around. Lawson strikes me as the riskier of the two plays here, but we've seen him have some flashes of fantasy excellence so far this season, and Orlando has the fifth worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA. It's more of a big tournament play, but it's absolutely a possibility that he outscores Dunn straight up on much lower ownership.

The Midrange Guys
Emmanuel Mudiay FD - $5900 DK - $6000
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 31.22 DK - 33.86
Elfrid Payton FD - $6200 DK - $6000
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.99 DK - 32.94
It never feels exciting to brag to your friends about playing guys in the %6,000s on FanDuel, but these guys are typically the bread and butter of your double-up lineups. These youngsters both seem to be coming into their own this season, and their situations keep getting more attractive. Mudiay is losing a shoot first ball hog of a 2 guard (Barton) and gaining some dude who will stand in the corner and try to make 3s (Chandler or Murray). You could argue that he's a great price even if Barton were to play, but without him, it's just a great spot. Dunn isn't know for his defense, and while he turned up a surprising 5 steals in his first start, Mudiay should still have plenty of room to operate. As for Payton, he's up against the aforementioned and defensively indifferent Ty Lawson. He's averaged 5x points per dollar on these prices this season, and Sacramento is back up to their predictably bad defensive tricks. Another high floor option.

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Shooting Guards

Shooting guard is surprisingly deep for a 5 game slate. Lots of options, lots of price points. Here are some key guys to look out for.

Victor Oladipo FD - $6000 DK - $6600
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 35.08 DK - 36.92
Zach LaVine FD - $6000 DK - $6200
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 28.35 DK - 30.47
The new situation, high upside group. Oladipo's usage has actually increased as he's joined a starting lineup with Russell Westbrook, and he might wind up being the only player in NBA history who's able to make that claim. But since moving to OKC he's added 3 minutes and 4 shots per game - a dramatic increase over last season's totals. And he's cheaper than last year. He hasn't gone off yet, but it's almost impossible to imagine his price going down as the season progresses. As for LaVine, we've seen him shine with Rubio out in the past. The only thing holding him down from must-play territory is the promising rookie listed above. Still, he looks like a high floor high ceiling play in a great match-up.

Evan Fournier FD - $6000 DK - $6100
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.53 DK - 32.66
J.R. Smith FD - $4400 DK - $4300
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 22.48 DK - 24.52
The solid if unspectacular crew. Both are playing big minutes relative to their prices and have reasonable usage rates to go with it. I'd be pretty surprised to see either help you win a big tournament, but I'd likewise be pretty surprised if either positively buried you. You should feel comfortable sliding either in as interchangeable cash-game pieces if your available salary dictates it.

A word on Giannis: The usage is just unreal this season, but I'm not totally sure this is the position where we want to be paying up. There's value at every price point, and while I don't have the luxury of having run any optimal lineups just yet, I'm just not sure that he'll land there. I'm not happy about this, by the way. He seems to be the safest big money option in a reasonable match-up with the Pacers. If I can play him in cash, I probably will.

The sites are essentially daring you to play Klay Thompson. Will you accept? The situation in Golden State still has so much shaking out to do that I'm not sure I have the stomach for it. We've seen becoming a third wheel kill fantasy stalwarts like Kevin Love - does Klay have what it takes to weather the storm of reduced usage? Early returns are uncertain, but it stands to reason that playing him at ~$2k cheaper than you paid last year has upside at the very least.

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant FD - $9700 DK - $10200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 47.48 DK - 50.34
Is it boring if I say the same thing about all the Golden State guys every time I write them up? Because I kind of want to. We're still waiting to see how this is all going to play for the Dubs, but it seems fairly clear early on that Durant is going to continue to eat. The Warriors have historically done a stars-by-committee thing where different guys would go off every night, where Durant and Westbrook would trade off from possession to possession. Durant simply hasn't missed a beat this season, putting up 52.3 FanDuel fantasy points per game with well-rounded production that's not reliant on any particular area. It seems like the only risk here would be a potential blowout, but I think there's a fella in OKC who will be working pretty hard to make sure that doesn't come to fruition. These teams are #1 and #2 in the league in PACE this season, and facing his old team, it's really hard to imagine that Durant takes a back seat here.

Wilson Chandler FD - $4800 DK - $4500
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 26.92 DK - 28.75
Danilo Gallinari FD - $6700 DK - $5800
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 32.65 DK - 34.64
Listed in order of how much they'll benefit from Barton being shelved for a while. 30 minutes of high usage from Barton is a lot to redistribute, and with no Gary Harris in the picture the Nuggets simply don't have a lot of options at the wing. Unless you trust Jamal Murray to eat up the usage (which I'm skeptical of given his early complete lack of production), it stands to reason that a lot of it will go to Denver's other shooters. Get one thing straight - this is about as bad a match-up as we can hope for to grab guys whose value is on the upswing. The Wolves are playing slower this season (per PACE), and have a much better defensive efficiency as well. This is way more of a high floor play on guys whose prices are likely to climb based on increased opportunity.

 

Consider: Aaron Gordon. The minutes are still there, but the shooting and rebounding have been in left field. Is Ibaka having that profound an effect on how the Magic are using him? Certainly could be. Still, he's relatively cheap and we've seen the upside he's flexed in the past when playing 30+ minutes.

Power Forwards

Gorgui Dieng FD - $6500 DK - $6700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 35.42 DK - 36.68
Power forward is the toughest position for me to evaluate today, outside of one guy. Gorgeous Gorgui. Thibs has given Dieng a dramatic increase in minutes and a 5% boost in shots per minute, and yet we still don't have to pay peak Gorgui prices from the past. He's scored in an incredibly tight 35-37 fantasy point range in his first three games, and he gets a great match-up with Denver's rotating cast of offense-first bigs here. Denver's upped its PACE to the 6th fastest in the NBA this season, and those extra possessions are just great for guys like Dieng that can score fantasy points in a handful of different ways. Seems like the safest way to invest at the power forward position today unless we get news of a great punt play.

Amir Johnson FD - $4000 DK - $3900
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 20.26 DK - 21.17
Unless, of course, Amir Johnson suits your fancy. As of this writing Johnson has 40+ fantasy points through 3 quarters of play, and just 23 minutes. While you can't expect anything like that level of production on just 23 minutes, it stands to reason that they're going to be looking to Johnson for closer to high 20s minutes for Johnson is Horford continues to miss time with a concussion. This is one of those cases where opponent doesn't matter very much, which is a good thing, because Cleveland is not a super opponent to play against. But if he's going to be a reasonable part of the offense and Horford misses significant time, he's just flat worth more than $4,000.

Serge Ibaka FD - $5600 DK - $5700
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.89 DK - 30.58
Ibaka's been a little up and down so far, but it seems pretty obvious that the Magic are far more committed to keeping Ibaka involved than the Thunder were. He's averaging more shots on fewer minutes, and the minutes have just been erratic thanks to some not-so-close games. In closer games Ibaka is an important part of what the Magic are trying to do offensively and defensively, and with Boogie locked up on Vuc, Ibaka should have even more room to operate here. An interesting note on Sacramento - they've slowed down their PACE dramatically from last season. It shouldn't matter too much, though, as Ibaka is still at something like a 10% discount to where he'll be in short order.

Centers

DeMarcus Cousins FD - $9600 DK - $10600
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 50.72 DK - 53.36
Boogie hasn't really put together a huge BOOGIE game yet this season, and it's a little troubling that his shots per minute have gone down slightly with the arrival of Ty Lawson. Still, he's really only had one plus match-up of the season (the opener with Phoenix), and he played limited minutes there on account of the Kings blowing them out. Cousins has been in a ton of foul trouble (even for him) recently, and Vucevic certainly doesn't represent a break on defense for opposing centers. But the thing that tips it in Boogie's favor here is how the Magic line up defensively - they allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing centers last season - and the numbers seem to indicate that this is the first game we see Cousins get back on track. I suspect this is the cheapest price we'll get on him for a while on FanDuel, though he might be overpriced on DraftKings.

Tyler Zeller FD - $3800 DK - $3800
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 25.31 DK - 26.26
Like Johnson, Zeller is flat underpriced if the plan is to get him high 20s minutes per game. No need to rehash it all here, but Zeller is more of a high floor guy than a guy with the explosive offensive ceiling of Amir Johnson. Still, it'd be fairly hard for him not to pay 4.5x points per dollar assuming the game doesn't get too out of hand.

Steven Adams FD - $5300 DK - $5900
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 29.39 DK - 30.79
Speaking of guys that are too cheap. Adams has added 10 minutes and 7 shots per game this season, and his price has increased by just 30%. He doesn't fall in the match-up proof territory that many punts will, but we saw him give Golden State a hell of a time on the boards in the post season last year even when they had Bogut. I've said it above, but this game could be fastest paced game of the season so far, and athletic bigs like Adams just thrive with all of the extra opportunities for boards and put-backs.

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