Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/9/16

The election's over and now we can turn our full and undivided attention to DFS NBA. That alone is a comforting feeling. We've got a huge Wednesday slate of NBA on tap here with a number of different interesting matchups. Let's get to it.

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Point Guards

Jose Juan BareaJose Juan Barea FD - $5700 DK - $6700
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 39.86 DK - 42.17
Deron Williams isn't traveling with the team meaning we are still locked in on J.J.'s minutes in the short term. Sure the price has climbed and sure there's a significant chance the Warriors just blow the living crap out of Dallas tonight. But he's a high usage guy in this offense and the Warriors aren't exactly going nuts shutting people down on the defensive end in the early season. A hallmark of the GSW team in the past was a fast pace/ defensively efficient team. This season they are still running and gunning but are giving up points on the other end as well. I think Dallas will struggle to stay in the game but Barea has a built in floor because of how thin Dallas is in the backcourt.

Rajon RondoRajon Rondo FD - $5500 DK - $5900
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 32.32 DK - 34.9
Hear me out on this one. Rondo's minutes are all over the place in the early season mostly because the Bulls just can't seem to play in a close game (in either direction). But there are encouraging aspects of Rondo's time in Chicago during this early part of the season. On a per minute basis, his rate stats are nearly identical to what he was doing last season with the Kings. Sure they don't look as good but again that's because of the variable minutes and a little run bad in the shooting department. We've seen the price dip and I think this is a great time to buy considering the game projects as close against the Hawks.

Ishmael SmithIshmael Smith FD - $5300 DK - $5100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 31.11 DK - 33.2
Much like Rondo, Ish has seen his production all over the place in the last games because of two blowouts. But now he gets a dream matchup against the Suns who are playing at the third fastest pace in the league and allowing the opposing team to score in bunches. Also, much like Rondo, Ish is running off his career averages from the field and has been real bad from three (11%). This has all led to a price dip and honestly I could have just copy and pasted the Rondo write up and put it on Ish. Field goal percentages tend to regress for a player and he's actually seen a bump in assists per minute with this Pistons' team. I love grabbing him at value especially on DraftKings.

Strongly consider Kyle Lowry against the Thunder and of course Russell Westbrook

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Shooting Guards

James HardenJames Harden FD - $11100 DK - $11500
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 55.36 DK - 58.81
The matchup is awful but so is this position. It's hard to trust many a shooting guard because they often are one trick ponies with scoring and that's just about it. But Harden isn't actually a shooting guard, but rather the Rockets' point guard. That alone boosts his value because he's designed to score points much differently than the rest of the DFS positioning. The scoring and assist totals are through the roof this year and he's being used in a totally different way. Now of course he's playing the Spurs which hurts. But I'm mostly looking at the uncertainty at the rest of the position and feeling okay with a slight overspend here.

Wesley MatthewsWesley Matthews FD - $4600 DK - $5100
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 24.79 DK - 27.01
I wrote him up last night and didn't feel great about it mostly because dude's been a huge stain in the short term causing a fair amount of heartache to our lineups. But going into last night there was at least some reason to believe he'd rebound and that happened with an adequate game against the Lakers. He's still in position tonight to hit value simply because of the minutes the Mavs are forced to run the guy with such a depleted lineup. Again, I can't over stress just how important this is when playing a guy in his price range. If he's going to run 40 or so minutes then you are getting salary in good despite the shooting woes.

Consider Bradley Beal and Victor Oladipo

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Small Forwards

Kawhi LeonardKawhi Leonard FD - $8800 DK - $9200
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 47.96 DK - 49.87
The Houston defensive struggles are well documented at this point and they currently rank as the 4th worst defensive efficiency team in the league. They aren't playing at the crazy pace I thought we'd see (99.7 - about league average) mostly because while Harden is playing the point, he isn't a crazy push the pace dude. All that being said, the Spurs could be in line to throttle Houston tonight. It's clearly Kawhi's team right now on the offense end. He leads the team in shots, scoring, and is second in assists. The dude's rounding into the full NBA package and we are still getting significant value on this new focus on his offensive game. Easy cash game play here on a night with some tougher matchups.

Harrison BarnesHarrison Barnes FD - $5700 DK - $6900
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 32.91 DK - 34.43
Revenge game! Kidding, those narratives are stupid and have no influence over any projections (if you use a system that does include a revenge multiplier, well, oof). Without Dirk the Mavs have needed Barnes in a big way. Last night the shooting continued with the guy putting up 18 shots over 40 minutes of playing time. He ended up with 31 points on the night though didn't chip in much along the rest of the box score. It's really the usage we need to mention here because with the Mavs playing him at both the four and the five, plus deferring to him in most offensive sets his price isn't close actual value right now. This of course changes when Dirk comes back, but for now we get about as high a minutes expectation as you can figure (even with the blowout concerns).

Kent BazemoreKent Bazemore FD - $4400 DK - $5000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.28 DK - 27.87
The Hawks were without Kyle Korver last night which definitely helped Baze from both a minutes and usage standpoint. That stands to decreased with Kyle (the new dad) coming back to play. But I do still like Bazemore here for a couple of reasons. His price is a bit lower thanks to some shooting issues earlier in the season. But the Hawks will also need him on the defensive side of the ball more to deal with the wing presences of Wade and Butler. I think he sees minutes close to (if not over) 30 here and if the shot is falling he can easily hit his salary floor.


Power Forwards

Blake GriffinBlake Griffin FD - $8500 DK - $8200
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 42.99 DK - 44.32
This is somewhat of a theme for theme for these picks but I'm super encouraged by some of Blake's early season stats. For starters, he's shooting about three times as many three pointers this year. It's a clear shift in his game as he cycles out of those long twos off the pick and roll. Additionally, the per minute rebounding is up a significant degree over last season. Like many other guys on this list, he's seen minutes get buzzed in the last two games because of blowouts. That doesn't project as the case tonight a competent Blazer team. He has a mismatch with just about anyone they throw at him especially he's ranging beyond the arc to complement the post game.

Tobias HarrisTobias Harris FD - $5900 DK - $6000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 32.17 DK - 33.74
One simple DFS strategy is to pinpoint the fast-paced, defensively inefficient teams and have a go at that. The Suns are one of these squads. They push the pace and allow a ton of opponent possessions. That's a simple DFS recipe. This is a big pace upgrade for the Pistons and Tobias has seen a couple of rough games in a row in which he's shot 0-6 from three and not had the rebounding to go with it. Look for that to turn around tonight. The Suns don't have a ton in the way of interior defense and he should see the shot attempts climb some in this matchup.

Paul MillsapPaul Millsap FD - $8000 DK - $7700
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 42.46 DK - 44.24
He can be a tough guy to roster on a night-to-night basis in DFS because there are times in which he'll simply disappear within the offense (or the game in general) and you'll wonder why you rostered $8K worth of dude who's somewhat non-existent. But then he'll put it all together and you'll wonder why you passed him over. It's a tricky balance with Millsap. He's far from cash game safe at this point and with his player profile. But I do think he creates some problems for the Bulls who'll have to defend him with Taj who doesn't have the same range or someone smaller who can't compete inside. Theoretically this is the mismatch Millsap should be creating every game, but there are times it fails to happen. I see him though as a solid tourney play.

Consider Markieff Morris on the rebound.



Steven AdamsSteven Adams FD - $5100 DK - $5500
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 31.82 DK - 32.93
Yet another guy who's seen his minutes go the wrong side of blowouts in the short term. Adams has seen a marked uptick in usage since Kevin Durant left OKC which makes a ton of sense. There were a lot of shots to be redistributed on this team and they have to go somewhere. He's still not really a total offensive center but the 25% or so shot volume bump this season is putting him on more and more DFS maps. Jonas Valanciunas is questionable to play in this one though he isn't much of a defensive presence as it is. Without him the Raptors are really thin in the frontcourt giving Adams even more opportunity.

DeAndre JordanDeAndre Jordan FD - $6700 DK - $6400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 37.06 DK - 38.26
He creates a mismatch inside for the Blazers who are a bit undersized in that department. Some of that is evidenced by the 16.5 rebounds per game he averaged against Portland last season to go with the 14 points per game. A solid P&R game plus the size is what gets it done for Jordan who has seen some of his per minute scoring and rebounding numbers take a hit this season. Some of that is likely pacing issues as three of LAC's first four games have come against slow teams. Portland runs at a top third pace so expect the touches to trend in the right direction here.



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image sources

  • JAZZ-PELICANS: (AP Foto/Tyler Kaufman)

4 Visitor Comments

  1. Only guys who never played think revenge games are meaningless…you always want to kill the team that traded/waived you..these pro athletes are super competitive and use anything for a “motivator”. Watch Barnes go the heck off tonight

  2. I have Barnes tonight…Two words…”revenge game”

  3. I have a feeling that Brad Beal is going to cost me big time. Otherwise, good work.

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