Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 205 - 11/12/16

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UFC. Madison Square Garden. Finally, those two things come together at UFC 205. I simply can’t oversell what an amazing card this is going to be, three title fights and big names all over the place. Conor McGregor is shooting to be the first fighter ever to simultaneously hold titles in two weight divisions.  DraftKings has responded appropriately with the single biggest day in DFS MMA history. There is a TON of money up for grabs – who should you target to get your share? Let’s dig in to the picks for UFC 205.

Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?

VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+)

Conor McGregor ($8,600)

Vegas Line: -140
Finish Prop: -107
Career Record: 20-3
UFC Record: 8-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  6.02
Finishes: 17 KO / 1 Sub / 13 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 3 Sub
Last Time Out: W, Majority Decision – Nate Diaz

Before I start – honorable mention here to Joanna Jedrzejczyk whose output is crazy high and puts her in play in all formats. But I want to dig into McGregor as I love his finish potential and he’s the biggest name in the sport. He’s an elite striker and honestly even though he is the 145 lbs champion, he looks to be a natural 155 lbs fighter. Eddie Alvarez is the better wrestler but has also made a habit of getting hurt in his fights and managing to survive. I think that is exactly how this plays out with the exception of his ability to recover against the power of McGregor. The Irishmen has the best finish prop on the card at -107 and I expect him to end UFC 205 with a bang. The danger would be if the fight goes into the later rounds or if Alvarez gets it to the ground. I don’t expect either to happen and McGregor is only $8,600 DraftKings, much cheaper than some of the other favorites. Load up the Notorious one in all formats and you should close out the night with a solid score.

Prediction: McGregor – 1^st Round TKO

MID-RANGE TARGET ($7,600-$8,400)

Rafael Natal ($8,100)

Vegas Line: -155
Finish Prop: +190
Career Record: 21-7-1
UFC Record: 9-5-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  3.1
Finishes: 4 KO / 8 Sub / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 4 KO
Last Time Out: L, Unanimous Decision – Robert Whittaker

With all the big names on this card, I expect Rafael Natal to go way under owned. He’s a -155 favorite who will cost you just $8,100, which is fantastic odds value. I also think Tim Boetsch’s time in the UFC, and MMA altogether, is just about over. Boetsch looked awful despite getting a win last time out and before that he had dropped three straight fights. Natal has numerous paths to victory and also has an above average Inside the Distance prop of +190. Natal is an ideal tournament play because of that upside as well as low ownership to differentiate your lineups. He may not find his way into my cash lineups because there are other places to go for a higher floor but I definitely wouldn’t talk you off Natal.

Prediction: Natal – 3^rd Round TKO

VALUE PLAY ($7,500 & UNDER)

Tyron Woodley ($7,400)

Vegas Line: +175
Finish Prop: +284
Career Record: 16-3
UFC Record: 6-2
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2-57
Finishes: 6 KO / 5 Sub / 9 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage:  1 KO
Last Time Out: W, 1^st Round KO – Robbie Lawler

GPP Only! I know I’m in the vast minority on this one as the entire world seems to love Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. He’s a great fighter but I simply think Tyron Woodley is going way undervalued. Thompson has great distance control and that will be the biggest hurdle for Woodley to overcome. There are two routes for that to happen, eventually Woodley lands a big shot for a KO or he uses his wrestling skills to grind out a win. Woodley has a high ceiling but also a very low floor. However, his $7,400 price tag gives you room to roster some of the higher priced fighters as well as differentiate your lineups.  To win big money in a GPP, you need to hit big somewhere that few others thought to look. For my money, Tyron Woodley is most likely to fit that bill.

Prediction: Tyron Woodley – Unanimous Decision

Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash and GPP plays as well as fades and contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.