Weekly NFL Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel - Week 10

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Week 10 NFL Stacks

Last turned out to be a success for DFSR as a whole. Doug and James absolutely killed it with the projections and optimizer finishing first in the FantasyPros DFAC contest scoring 152 points on FanDuel. Great job guys.

The stacks were also a success on last week. The chalky Saints and Packers both performed well with Brees and Rodgers both throwing 297+ yards and three touchdowns. The value stack of the 49ers was a split decision as Colin Kaepernick went off for 398 yards passing and two touchdowns but I totally missed the WR option as it was Quinton Patton going off for 106 yards on a team leading nine targets. Gross. It was a similar situation for the Eagles as Carson Wentz threw for a season high 364 yards but didn't record a touchdown despite a few passes that ended up just short of the end zone that turned into rushing touchdowns. The most positive takeaway from the Eagles was that Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz owned close to 50% of the target share with 18 targets.

With just four teams on bye's this week we get two additional games which should help limit the ownership on some of the stacks. Let's take a look at the Player Lab and break down some of the top stacks for this the Sunday-Monday slate.

 

 

Philadelphia Eagles
QB - Carson Wentz
Elite Options - Jordan Matthews
Value Options - Zach Ertz, Darren Sproles

I am going right back to the Eagles well this week for a few reasons. As you can see in the picture above Carson Wentz is the only quarterback to show up on the Player lab with those three specific filters(High Vegas O/U, Poor Defense vs. Pass, High Opp Pace). The Eagles will face the NFC South powerhouse Falcons who lead the league with 33.9 points per game. For the Eagles to keep this one close I can easily see Wentz exceeding 37 projected pass attempts. He easily exceeded that last week when they let him air out 47 times. He is a rookie quarterback and is going to make mistakes as he did last week with two interceptions early in the 1st quarter. He rebounded nicely and could have easily had two touchdowns if not for some bad luck. When stacking the Eagles this week there are three options to consider, all at different positions. Start with the big bodied wide receiver Jordan Matthews who has caught 17 balls on 25 targets over the last two weeks. After Matthews there are two value options starting with tight end Zach Ertz. He comes with a low price due to the inconsistency but is coming off his best game of the year catching all eight of his targets for 97 yards. If you want to dig a little deeper you can save a bunch of salary and fill your flex or second running back spot with Darren Sproles. Coach Doug Pederson admitted to Sproles being the lead back and he has out touched Ryan Matthews 28-9 over the last two weeks. Sproles has also seen 16 targets in the pass game during the last weeks. The opportunities for the entire pass game should continue this week in a projected high paced, high scoring game.

 

 

 

New York Giants
QB - Eli Manning
Elite Options - Odell Beckham Jr.
Correlation WR Option -  A.J. Green

This week I am going to dip into the Monday Night Football game as some have requested it. Much like the Thursday night games which are also not a part of the main slate, I think there is value in playing slates that include these games on certain weeks. This is one of those weeks as we have a very favorable fantasy matchup between the Bengals and the Giants. The game has a very thin one point spread favoring the road team at the moment but I would expect that line to move a ton before Monday.

Looking at the Player Lab tool, I took a bit of a different approach to my filters to get to Eli Manning and the Giants offense. Outside of the "Poor Defense vs. the Pass" and "High Proj Att" which I always use, I added the "High Team Pass Yds%" and "High Team Pass TD%" filter this week. They are pretty straight forward and help to identify teams that rely on passing for their overall yardage and touchdowns. The Giants and Packers really stood out with these filters and it should come as no surprise as neither team has a steady run game. Looking at the Giants specifically, they rely on passing for 75% of their touchdowns and 80% of their yards. Combine that with a matchup against the Bengals who rank 21st in Defense vs. the Pass and you have an elite stacking option. Pair Eli with Odell Beckham Jr. who is averaging 10+ targets a week and has one of the highest ceilings of any player in the NFL.

From a correlation standpoint, A.J. Green makes a great addition to your Giants stack. The Giants also lack a defense that can stop the pass ranking 19th on the Player Lab tool which sets up for a pass happy game for both sides. Get in those Sun-Mon slates people! I even feel very comfortable playing in a Mon-Thurs two game slate as Week 11 gives us a nice matchup on Thursday with the Saints visiting the Panthers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Orleans Saints
QB - Drew Brees
Elite Option - Michael Thomas
Value Option - Brandin Cooks

It feels like a week where most people will be paying up for at least one running back, quite possibly two. If this is the case there is going to be a large percentage of value quarterbacks rostered. This opens a big opportunity for the elite quarterbacks in tournaments this week. To add to it even more, I also see people paying up for Rodgers, Brady, Ryan which should leave Drew Brees as one of the lowest owned quarterbacks of the week.

Enter the Saints stack! They are at home which is comforting as the matchup vs. the Broncos is not. The Saints will most likely look to attack in the run game early to setup the play action pass and beat this tough secondary. One positive looking at the Player Lab tool is that the Broncos are allowing a very high 67 plays per game to their opponents. Vegas even sides with the Superdome powers over the Broncos defense and has this projected for 49 points, the fourth highest of the week. Brees is projected for around 37 passing attempts which seems about right as he has only come in under that total once(35) this season. Brees is also red hot right now throwing multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games. I have Michael Thomas as the elite play this week as he has out targeted Cooks over the last three weeks 27-21 and outperformed him with 98 more receiving yards. They have split the scoring this year as each comes in with five touchdowns.

 

 

 

 

Green Bay Packers
QB - Aaron Rodgers
Elite Options - Jordy Nelson
Correlation WR Option - Kendal Wright

There really isn't much not to like about this matchup for the Packers. They come in having lost two straight games falling back to third in the NFC North and should be fired up as they head to Nashville, Tennessee to face the Titans on Sunday. Rodgers definitely hasn't been the issue as he has thrown three or more touchdowns in three straight games. He has also been forced into attempting 38 or more passes in five straight games due to a lack of any type of run game. This is also heavily reflected in the Packers 91% of touchdowns that coeme from the pass. Even with the Titans ranking as one of the best defenses in limiting pace to their opponents(62.2 per game), Rodgers is still projected for 40+ attempts in a game the Packers are favored to win. Despite limiting their opponents plays, the Titans defense still ranks 23rd on the Player Tool. If you are like me and think this game will turn into a shootout add Kendal Wright to your Packers stack as a correlation play as he should get at least two or three deep shots at a very low ownership level.

 

 

 

Honorable Mentions: Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears

 

 

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